Benefits of Brexit

[KrissKross]

Murph7355 said:

KrissKross said:

jjlynn27 said:

But who needs ONS data when you have 'a lot of our experiences', eh?

So you are suggesting that graph is Engineering/Tech companies going bust?

More importantly, does the chart demonstrate causation with the referendum outcome?

He has still not explained what "type" of business this graph refers to, could the manufacture of EU flags for all we know.

[jjlynn27]

Murph7355 said:

...

"Unfortunately" I was at an Easter Egg hunt with the kids. Far more productive and worthwhile in the log run than looking at charts and searching for the meaning of life, and the outcome was tastier

I might not agree with the rest of your post (...) but this I'll agree with 100%. Even if it means more pain on the bicycle today .

[KrissKross]

///ajd said:

No one wants to read this bickering nonsense.

WHOOOSH........

[jjlynn27]

Tuna said:

I'm not sure what you think bankruptcy numbers demonstrate other than a change in business climate (that's neither a good or a bad thing, it's just a change). We could look at GDP instead and... Well whaddaya know...

It demonstrates, as explained that no, not all companies are doing well. It demonstrates a huge increase in bankruptcies over a short period of time. As it was explained, if the explanation was really needed. In light of your previous assertion, both GDP and unemployment are meaningless. Neither of them shows exceptional trend reversal either.

[Tuna]

jjlynn27 said:

Tuna said:

I'm not sure what you think bankruptcy numbers demonstrate other than a change in business climate (that's neither a good or a bad thing, it's just a change). We could look at GDP instead and... Well whaddaya know...

It demonstrates, as explained that no, not all companies are doing well. It demonstrates a huge increase in bankruptcies over a short period of time. As it was explained, if the explanation was really needed. In light of your previous assertion, both GDP and unemployment are meaningless. Neither of them shows exceptional trend reversal either.

I have very little direct experience of bankruptcy, but what I have noticed is that it doesn't happen overnight. Friends who have gone through this have struggled for a long time - often years - before finally taking the daunting step of declaring themselves bankrupt. What is interesting about that graph is the response to Brexit has been almost instant (despite nothing actually changing structurally after the vote).

It's just a theory, but do big shifts like this prompt people to take stock and make a difficult decision that may have been a long time in the making? I'm not sure how your figures can represent a 'bad economy' when all the other figures are unmoved - or even improving.

So the explanation is needed from you. How do you explain the increase in bankruptcy when (1) we're not seeing other economic indicators changing, (2) the response is so swift and (3) nothing has structurally changed in the UK economy yet? You're ascribing causation when you've only actually demonstrated a vague correlation.

[crankedup]

^^^^^
And of course we also know that exports are booming since Brexit. thanks to the fall in the pound. So this exaggerates the nigh vertical climb in bankruptcies even more perplexing.

[SELON]

Murph7355 said:

I'll start to answer my own question as the shape of that chart intrigued me.

First thing I thought worth looking at was the size of the companies going bust. I couldn't find much info in the time I'm able to give it just now, but the first link I had showed retail company info;

http://www.retailresearch.org/whosegonebust.php

More firms going down in 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2009 and 2008. More employees impacted in 3 of those years.

Maybe more interestingly, extend the timeline of your chart to its max:


I wonder if we'll beat 1992, and what happened in 1992

I think at best we'd have to say that proving causation to Brexit is difficult. Realistically I'd say it's impossible without much more granular data...and even then there is unlikely to be a single extinction event.

I assume that you're yanking ajd's chain with your 1992 analysis?

[wc98]

///ajd said:

It does say nothing about post brexit immigration, but given the direction of travel, do you think

a) things will get easier
b) things will get harder, put off some & make recruitment more difficult

You can say "we can't possibly know" if you want.

at this point in time i really do not know. the main thing i would like to see is better background checks to keep out the criminal element, no matter where in the world they come from.

i cannot see why there should be any major obstacles placed in the way of recruiting people that business needs. the rest of the world manages with a variety of systems,many far more strict on paper than some would imagine .

[alfie2244]

I know I am a bit old and senile but what does bankruptcies have to do with companies?

IIRC Companies don't go bankrupt, individuals do - companies go into liquidation...so I am struggling to see the the relevance of a few of these posts.

Eta I was slightly wrong but rather than edit I'll add this:


Key Differences Between Bankruptcy and Liquidation

The legal state in which a person or company becomes bankrupt is considered as Bankruptcy while the procedure in which a company’s business is finally put to an end is considered as liquidation.
Liquidation is limited to the company only, whereas the Bankruptcy is not limited to the company, here persons can also become bankrupt.
The bankruptcy can be done voluntarily (petition by the person or company itself) or involuntarily (petition filed by creditors), but the liquidation can be done voluntarily (petition filed by shareholders) or compulsorily (petition filed by the creditors).
The significant difference between the two is that Bankruptcy arises out of financial crises or insolvency, but Liquidation can be due to financial instability or due to some other reason.


Read more: http://keydifferences.com/difference-between-bankr...

Edited by alfie2244 on Sunday 9th April 16:07

[///ajd]

alfie2244 said:

I know I am a bit old and senile but what does bankruptcies have to do with companies?

IIRC Companies don't go bankrupt, individuals do - companies go into liquidation...so I am struggling to see the the relevance of a few of these posts.

Eta I was slightly wrong but rather than edit I'll add this:


Key Differences Between Bankruptcy and Liquidation

The legal state in which a person or company becomes bankrupt is considered as Bankruptcy while the procedure in which a company’s business is finally put to an end is considered as liquidation.
Liquidation is limited to the company only, whereas the Bankruptcy is not limited to the company, here persons can also become bankrupt.
The bankruptcy can be done voluntarily (petition by the person or company itself) or involuntarily (petition filed by creditors), but the liquidation can be done voluntarily (petition filed by shareholders) or compulsorily (petition filed by the creditors).
The significant difference between the two is that Bankruptcy arises out of financial crises or insolvency, but Liquidation can be due to financial instability or due to some other reason.


Read more: http://keydifferences.com/difference-between-bankr...

Edited by alfie2244 on Sunday 9th April 16:07

The right hand axis on the graph is "companies" - i.e. number of.

It is possible it is linked to the 15% drop in currency, being enough in some cases to push companies with exposure to such a drop, whether their product/service has enough non-£ content that 15% would really hurt.

[alfie2244]

///ajd said:

The right hand axis on the graph is "companies" - i.e. number of.

I realise that but: "Bankruptcy is one way for individuals to deal with debts they can’t pay. It doesn’t apply to companies or partnerships."

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guide-t...

There are 3 types of liquidation:

creditors’ voluntary liquidation - your company can’t pay its debts and you involve your creditors when you liquidate it
compulsory liquidation - your company can’t pay its debts and you apply to the courts to liquidate it
members’ voluntary liquidation - your company can pay its debts but you want to close it

https://www.gov.uk/liquidate-your-company

Edited by alfie2244 on Sunday 9th April 17:45

[jjlynn27]

Tuna said:

I have very little direct experience of bankruptcy, but what I have noticed is that it doesn't happen overnight. Friends who have gone through this have struggled for a long time - often years - before finally taking the daunting step of declaring themselves bankrupt. What is interesting about that graph is the response to Brexit has been almost instant (despite nothing actually changing structurally after the vote).

It's just a theory, but do big shifts like this prompt people to take stock and make a difficult decision that may have been a long time in the making? I'm not sure how your figures can represent a 'bad economy' when all the other figures are unmoved - or even improving.

So the explanation is needed from you. How do you explain the increase in bankruptcy when (1) we're not seeing other economic indicators changing, (2) the response is so swift and (3) nothing has structurally changed in the UK economy yet? You're ascribing causation when you've only actually demonstrated a vague correlation.

The graph was of companies going bankrupt. Was that not clear? Not individuals. The graph was a response to your claim that all companies that you know are doing really really well. The graph shows one of two things, either your sample is way too small, or you are telling porkies. Unless you think that companies going bankrupt are a sign of company doing well.
No need for any explanation from me at all. The graph was presented as verifiable data from ONS. I didn't say what's causing the graph to look as it does. Where did I ascribe anything?

[limpsfield]

I've no dog in this fight but was interested enough to have a google around.

http://www.cranfieldbusinessrecovery.co.uk/news-hu...

The total number of company insolvencies was higher in 2016 than in the previous year which has been attributed to 1,796 connected personal service companies entering liquidation on the same date following changes to claimable expenses rules. If these are excluded, the number of company insolvencies was broadly unchanged in 2016 compared with 2015.

Overall, therefore, despite the uncertainties of Brexit there is no evidence in these numbers that Brexit is having a material effect on either the numbers of corporate or personal insolvencies so far.

This from the Gruaniad
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/oct/28/inso...

Suggests a 19% increase in personal insolvencies but given it covers last summer, surely too soon to blame the referendum.

"The number of people becoming insolvent across England and Wales leapt by a fifth in the third quarter of 2016, with experts warning that the numbers could continue to increase as the cost of living rises following the UK’s Brexit vote.

There were 24,251 personal insolvencies between July and September, marking a 19.3% increase compared with the third quarter of 2015 and a 6% rise on the second quarter of this year, the figures from the Insolvency Service show."

[alfie2244]

And yet we have the lowest jobless rate since July to 2005

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/articles/021520170...

[alfie2244]

jjlynn27 said:

The graph was of companies going bankrupt. Was that not clear? Not individuals. The graph was a response to your claim that all companies that you know are doing really really well. The graph shows one of two things, either your sample is way too small, or you are telling porkies. Unless you think that companies going bankrupt are a sign of company doing well.
No need for any explanation from me at all. The graph was presented as verifiable data from ONS. I didn't say what's causing the graph to look as it does. Where did I ascribe anything?

Companies don't go bankrupt but even if they did, if there is no correlation, then why post it on a Brexit related thread?

[///ajd]

alfie2244 said:

jjlynn27 said:

The graph was of companies going bankrupt. Was that not clear? Not individuals. The graph was a response to your claim that all companies that you know are doing really really well. The graph shows one of two things, either your sample is way too small, or you are telling porkies. Unless you think that companies going bankrupt are a sign of company doing well.
No need for any explanation from me at all. The graph was presented as verifiable data from ONS. I didn't say what's causing the graph to look as it does. Where did I ascribe anything?

Companies don't go bankrupt but even if they did, if there is no correlation, then why post it on a Brexit related thread?

The correlation is two posts above.

Linked to cost of living going up, linked to brexit.

[alfie2244]

///ajd said:

alfie2244 said:

jjlynn27 said:

The graph was of companies going bankrupt. Was that not clear? Not individuals. The graph was a response to your claim that all companies that you know are doing really really well. The graph shows one of two things, either your sample is way too small, or you are telling porkies. Unless you think that companies going bankrupt are a sign of company doing well.
No need for any explanation from me at all. The graph was presented as verifiable data from ONS. I didn't say what's causing the graph to look as it does. Where did I ascribe anything?

Companies don't go bankrupt but even if they did, if there is no correlation, then why post it on a Brexit related thread?

The correlation is two posts above.

Linked to cost of living going up, linked to brexit.

Picky I know but isn't cost of living for people not companies?....wages, not adjusted for inflation, went up last year, employment was up why no link to any good news? As if I don't really know

[Tuna]

///ajd said:

The correlation is two posts above.

Linked to cost of living going up, linked to brexit.

You say that two posts below a quote that shows you're demonstrably wrong!

limpsfield said:

..linked to 1,796 connected personal service companies entering liquidation on the same date following changes to claimable expenses rules.

So, I asked what link there was to Brexit, jlynne stuck to his guns saying that it's obviously caused by brexit..erm.. because..

..and then we have the answer. Changes in rules introduced by HMRC have made the use of personal service companies less of a tax dodge than they used to be - so they get shut down in a single block, giving us the peak.

Absolutely nothing to do with Brexit

[Tuna]

jjlynn27 said:

The graph shows one of two things, either your sample is way too small, or you are telling porkies.

Or, as limpsfield helpfully demonstrated, the peak was nothing to do with Brexit at all.

[///ajd]

alfie2244 said:

///ajd said:

alfie2244 said:

jjlynn27 said:

The graph was of companies going bankrupt. Was that not clear? Not individuals. The graph was a response to your claim that all companies that you know are doing really really well. The graph shows one of two things, either your sample is way too small, or you are telling porkies. Unless you think that companies going bankrupt are a sign of company doing well.
No need for any explanation from me at all. The graph was presented as verifiable data from ONS. I didn't say what's causing the graph to look as it does. Where did I ascribe anything?

Companies don't go bankrupt but even if they did, if there is no correlation, then why post it on a Brexit related thread?

The correlation is two posts above.

Linked to cost of living going up, linked to brexit.

Picky I know but isn't cost of living for people not companies?....wages, not adjusted for inflation, went up last year, employment was up why no link to any good news? As if I don't really know

As cost of living goes up, so peoples disposable income goes down - many businesses are based on people spending their disposable income on stuff.

Feel free to link to any good news. No one is stopping you, go ahead.

That doesn't mean those that want to can't discuss bad news.