How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
turbobloke said:
Survey said: 60% of adults have lived in the same house for more than 15 years, 10% have not moved for 30 years or more.
Sure, but we are talking about the affordability of central london property. The stuff being bought by high earning professionals, who often relocate globally for jobs.Im not entirely sure of the relevance of a statistic relating to people who dont move house to a debate about people who ARE buying property.
gibbon said:
turbobloke said:
Survey said: 60% of adults have lived in the same house for more than 15 years, 10% have not moved for 30 years or more.
Sure, but we are talking about the affordability of central london property. The stuff being bought by high earning professionals, who often relocate globally for jobs.Im not entirely sure of the relevance of a statistic relating to people who dont move house to a debate about people who ARE buying property.
Targarama said:
...stay for five years or more...
It was merely additional information pertinent to the post I replied to. But since you asked...both are subsets of the property market albeit operating at different participation rates. The overall picture is people buying houses to live in then living in them, as opposed to viewing it as a punt.
Burwood said:
The number of friends who think they are so well off because their house has gone up 300k. Really a fools paradise.
I have a friend - intelligent high earner, believe it or not - who actually said to me the other day 'once we've made a bit of money on the value of this place, we'll be able to upgrade to that big place we saw with the stables etc'. Further questioning on how that works revealed that he seemed to think that the price of the bigger place (just down the road) would remain static whilst his house would rise in value. Possible, I suppose....
He also seemed to think that he could borrow £800k to get it. Confused the hell out of me - he claims to be making about £110k pa.
I only argued briefly as I had better things to do. Opening another couple of beers being foremost.
Targarama said:
However, if I sell I now have £30k more in my pocket after 2.5 years. If I hadn't overpaid to the equivalent I was paying in rent the figure would be smaller for sure. But its still smaller.
No - you have completely ignored the opportunity cost of your own capital.The only reason you could overpay the mortgage using the same rent is because you put a boat load of equity into the house.
If you had instead put that into savings it would have generated a return.
Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
walm said:
Targarama said:
However, if I sell I now have £30k more in my pocket after 2.5 years. If I hadn't overpaid to the equivalent I was paying in rent the figure would be smaller for sure. But its still smaller.
No - you have completely ignored the opportunity cost of your own capital.The only reason you could overpay the mortgage using the same rent is because you put a boat load of equity into the house.
If you had instead put that into savings it would have generated a return.
Targarama said:
Not ignoring, I agree there are other ways to save/make money. Or lose it. Interest rates on cash savings are pants. The stock market offers what level of return, and at what risk? Especially talking today instead of a few weeks ago pre the 'Chinese mini-crash'? My ISAs and pensions seemed to lose 8-10% over the past month or so.
You said you were £30k better off.That is only true if you ignore opportunity costs (or consider your own cost of capital as zero).
Short term stock market volatility is almost entirely unrelated to a true cost of capital.
All I am saying is that people who think rent is wasted typically ignore the interest they pay the bank and they ignore their savings tied up in the house.
And from a financial analysis perspective, that is wrong.
Mr Whippy said:
Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
walm said:
Ari - your reply to Mr Bond only applies if houses all rise at the same rate.
If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.
Thanks Tibbets.If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.
Edited to add - plus Ari clearly only see's a house as an investment. I primarily see it as a home for my family. Increase in value comes second to that.
Edited by St John Smythe on Monday 14th September 18:24
St John Smythe said:
Mr Whippy said:
Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
But unfortunately you didn't answer the question I'd asked.
And history shows the answer isn't always the same.
Mr Whippy said:
St John Smythe said:
Mr Whippy said:
Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
But unfortunately you didn't answer the question I'd asked.
And history shows the answer isn't always the same.
St John Smythe said:
Mr Whippy said:
Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
Dave_ST220 said:
St John Smythe said:
Mr Whippy said:
Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
St John Smythe said:
Dave_ST220 said:
St John Smythe said:
Mr Whippy said:
Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.
Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.
The bubble poppeth commeth!
What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?
Privatised profit and publicised debt again?
Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?
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