How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[Ari]

St John Smythe said:

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

Yup, will never happen. The government will just lower interest rates again to stave it off.

Oh, hang on...

[Justayellowbadge]

[redacted]

[walm]

Ari - your reply to Mr Bond only applies if houses all rise at the same rate.
If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.

[DoubleSix]

Ari said:

Yup, will never happen. The government will just lower interest rates again to stave it off.

Oh, hang on...

There are plenty of other tricks that can deployed if gov is really determined to prop up the UK housing market.

[anonymous-user]

walm said:

Ari - your reply to Mr Bond only applies if houses all rise at the same rate.
If he were living in London and looking to move out then he will be quids in, for example.

Thanks Tibbets.

Edited to add - plus Ari clearly only see's a house as an investment. I primarily see it as a home for my family. Increase in value comes second to that.

Edited by St John Smythe on Monday 14th September 18:24

[Mr Whippy]

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!




What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?


Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

Insightful.

But unfortunately you didn't answer the question I'd asked.

And history shows the answer isn't always the same.

[anonymous-user]

Mr Whippy said:

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!




What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?


Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

Insightful.

But unfortunately you didn't answer the question I'd asked.

And history shows the answer isn't always the same.

I think the rules are a bit different where you live. Definitely seems to be a totally different market North to South.

[Dave_ST220]

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!




What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?


Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

The same people have been banging the same drum in this very thread since 2008.

[anonymous-user]

Dave_ST220 said:

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!




What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?


Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

The same people have been banging the same drum in this very thread since 2008.

That's an awful long time to wait for a crash that never came. Maybe they should find themselves another hobby?

[turbobloke]

St John Smythe said:

Dave_ST220 said:

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!




What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?


Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

The same people have been banging the same drum in this very thread since 2008.

That's an awful long time to wait for a crash that never came. Maybe they should find themselves another hobby?

Another 8 years is nothing to HPCers. Anticipation is everything

[p1stonhead]

turbobloke said:

St John Smythe said:

Dave_ST220 said:

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!




What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?


Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

The same people have been banging the same drum in this very thread since 2008.

That's an awful long time to wait for a crash that never came. Maybe they should find themselves another hobby?

Another 8 years is nothing to HPCers. Anticipation is everything

I pop in sometimes to see whats going on there; its hilarious. Seems now like some have resigned themselves to actually being wrong and are now upset they missed the boat all those years ago. Instead of living their lives best for them at this moment, they have been waiting and waiting for 'better times' which just havent come - one poster in particular said their life has been on hold for 6 years waiting for a property crash so they could buy but the houses they could have bought back then are now 80% more expensive.

[turbobloke]

p1stonhead said:

turbobloke said:

St John Smythe said:

Dave_ST220 said:

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!

What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?

Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

The same people have been banging the same drum in this very thread since 2008.

That's an awful long time to wait for a crash that never came. Maybe they should find themselves another hobby?

Another 8 years is nothing to HPCers. Anticipation is everything

I pop in sometimes to see whats going on there; its hilarious. Seems now like some have resigned themselves to actually being wrong and are now upset they missed the boat all those years ago. Instead of living their lives best for them at this moment, they have been waiting and waiting for 'better times' which just havent come - one poster in particular said their life has been on hold for 6 years waiting for a property crash so they could buy but the houses they could have bought back then are now 80% more expensive.

Oops.

This time in the next 8 years Rodney...we'll be millionaires homeowners still renting, it's a matter of choice doncha know.

[anonymous-user]

p1stonhead said:

I pop in sometimes to see whats going on there; its hilarious. Seems now like some have resigned themselves to actually being wrong and are now upset they missed the boat all those years ago. Instead of living their lives best for them at this moment, they have been waiting and waiting for 'better times' which just havent come - one poster in particular said their life has been on hold for 6 years waiting for a property crash so they could buy but the houses they could have bought back then are now 80% more expensive.

What a bunch of numpties!

I've got a mate like that. Still lives at home with his Mum and has been 'waiting for the right time' to buy somewhere for the last 15 years. He was moaning the other day that he wouldn't be able to afford anything local now as it's too expensive. Talk about missing the boat.

[Justayellowbadge]

I browse every now and then.

It is an astonishingly unpleasant place.

The vitriol is one thing - all btl are scum and the look forward to seeing their children starving in gutters, but the way the place rounds on anyone not of the hive mind is incredible. If anyone says anything remotely positive they are immediately called out as a troll, rentier scum or, worst of all, apparently, an estate agent.

The utter certainty displayed there is borderline mental illness.

[NomduJour]

Prices go up, prices go down - the housing market is still a market. Thinking otherwise is a bit foolish.

[anonymous-user]

NomduJour said:

Prices go up, prices go down - the housing market is still a market. Thinking otherwise is a bit foolish.

Hello HPC poster

[Mr Whippy]

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

St John Smythe said:

Mr Whippy said:

Eeek, just been looking at rents and prices to buy again near here.

Stuff seems to have jumped another 10%+ in asking prices in the last 12 months again I'd say.

The bubble poppeth commeth!




What really needs to be answered is who will pay for it when it does correct?

Privatised profit and publicised debt again?


Or can we rest safe knowing that idiots will be punished and sensible people rewarded for once?

I think you need to build a time machine and go back to the HPC forum 10+ years ago. We've heard it all before mate.

Insightful.

But unfortunately you didn't answer the question I'd asked.

And history shows the answer isn't always the same.

I think the rules are a bit different where you live. Definitely seems to be a totally different market North to South.

It's different everywhere for different reasons.


Fundamentally the prices can do what they like. I'm happy enough to pay rent and wait for prices to drop, or my salary to catch up.

If *neither* of those things happen, then we're all in for rocky times ahead.

The road to socialism awaits. When the likes of this new Labour leader nut job get going he'll no doubt want to take property off everyone and place it into state ownership and distribution

[walm]

Mr Whippy said:

he'll no doubt want to take property off everyone and place it into state ownership and distribution

In all seriousness he has said that about the utility and rail companies already.
Not real estate property but property nonetheless.

[p1stonhead]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Round my way the amount of loft conversions and extensions going on is staggering. Its the obvious choice as it costs so damn much to move and house prices are already high! This means however that it will get worse as every person doing a loft conversion instead of selling is another bit of the market closed. Chronic lack of supply is still pushing prices up something insane.

[V6Alfisti]

NomduJour said:

Prices go up, prices go down - the housing market is still a market. Thinking otherwise is a bit foolish.

Can't really disagree with you, it's a simple cyclical fact.

The south is already different to the north, and there are so many stories across even different parts of London. The North/West has halted and is entirely flat, prime is down with particular focus on Kensington e.t.c. The east and south are providing the growth, as you can still get 2 bed properties under 440k but in some pretty horrendous locations.

You then have areas such as SW8 (albiet not typical) who's prices have literally fallen off a cliff, and there are if I recall correctly 1500-2500 unsold properties, of which next to none sell but receive massive discounts to attract attention.

Then factor in the massive average personal debt, the last figure I was was 3x higher debt per person than during the recession. Anyone that thinks the market will not suffer when rates go up 1-2% is foolish.

However (and focused on London), I don't agree with the HPC crashists that we are going to see 50% drops in London, that simply will never happen.

A 15-20% drop is not unrealistic, given the problems people are facing getting finance, China/Russia demand fall off (which may mean empty properties are then filled). I also thought I read somewhere but it seems a bit high!, that 32,000 2 bed properties are due to complete in London this year. Hence the cranes you see absolutely everywhere.

As a FTB'er I am still keeping an eye on the market, but the stock is simply rubbish at the moment. Where I am prices have stalled, so I have got little to lose based on the current behaviour of the market.