War with Russia

[skyrover]

Mortar fire in East Ukraine... what it's like being shelled

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55_wtYx55FM

[QuantumTokoloshi]

I am wondering how long this will take to get out of control.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-13/russia-wa...

[skyrover]

It was only a matter of time.

Neither country wants a war by proxy though, and Russia certainly can't afford one.

It's probably a fair bet that Russia may try to seize as much territory as possible with regular forces before western military aid becomes available, then try and get some sort of ceasefire.

Interestingly, the latest poll's show an increase in Ukrainian support for joining NATO now at 55%, up from 35% in May.

Traditionally Ukrainians have always been suspicious of NATO, historically sharing the Russian outlook.

[Mr Whippy]

Do you ever feel like the West are the ones who are gonna kick start the whole Nineteen Eighty Four world we all feared?

Once we're at war, all news outlets will be controlled to stop anti-terrorism or free-thinking dissent. National security issues.

We'll 'win' the war against Russia. In news reports at least.

We'll have old news post-modified to suit the needs of the day, with the streaming world growing and home 'recording' becoming illegal because it's copyright infringement of someone or another.

For generations into the future the debts of the West will come back to haunt us, and the 'war' will be used as an excuse for generations of servitude to the state.


Scary world ahead, and it feels like the West are the ones leading the way.


Borrow borrow borrow, QE, QE, QE, police state, removal of freedoms to protect us, wars out of nowhere for no ones benefits.


Sometimes I think, sadly, that a big nuclear exchange is the only positive way forward for humanity. A war to reset all of the past bks of geo-economic-political-racial stupidity and greed, for us to work forward positively.
I don't really want to get blown up or live in the aftermath of that, but I don't think the alternatives we seem to be slipping towards are all that ideal either, less so for a few generations down the line.

Dave

[BlackLabel]

From the FT(£) http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&...

[skyrover]

Mr Whippy said:

Do you ever feel like the West are the ones who are gonna kick start the whole Nineteen Eighty Four world we all feared?

Once we're at war, all news outlets will be controlled to stop anti-terrorism or free-thinking dissent. National security issues.

It's always been this way... Look at how Putin's old school cold war method's ares ultimately blown open by modern technologies such as the internet. It's far far harder to hide the truth from from the public these day's.

Mr Whippy said:

We'll 'win' the war against Russia. In news reports at least.

Yes... probably. Judging by the professionalism of RT that's not going to be too difficult.

Mr Whippy said:

We'll have old news post-modified to suit the needs of the day, with the streaming world growing and home 'recording' becoming illegal because it's copyright infringement of someone or another.

Nothing changes... methods to circumvent will always be available. Cat and mouse as it's always been.

Mr Whippy said:

For generations into the future the debts of the West will come back to haunt us, and the 'war' will be used as an excuse for generations of servitude to the state.

We get the government we deserve unfortunately. Vote spendthrift parties into power, don't be surprised when the chickens come home to roost.

Mr Whippy said:

Scary world ahead, and it feels like the West are the ones leading the way.

It's easy to live in fear, but that changes nothing.

Mr Whippy said:

Borrow borrow borrow, QE, QE, QE, police state, removal of freedoms to protect us, wars out of nowhere for no ones benefits.

Indeed... although it's certainly not something exclusive to the west.

Mr Whippy said:

Sometimes I think, sadly, that a big nuclear exchange is the only positive way forward for humanity. A war to reset all of the past bks of geo-economic-political-racial stupidity and greed, for us to work forward positively.
I don't really want to get blown up or live in the aftermath of that, but I don't think the alternatives we seem to be slipping towards are all that ideal either, less so for a few generations down the line.

Dave

You wish to condemn the majority of humanity to a fiery, hellsome doom, while cursing the survivors with hopeless future?

There are many many ways in which things can play out, nothing is certain and nuclear annihilation is way down the list of "preferential outcomes"

[Mr Whippy]

skyrover said:

You wish to condemn the majority of humanity to a fiery, hellsome doom, while cursing the survivors with hopeless future?

There are many many ways in which things can play out, nothing is certain and nuclear annihilation is way down the list of "preferential outcomes"

I don't wish it, but I see it as a way for a lot of the bad things in the world to be removed by necessity. A necessity that will never be found if the status quo is allowed to persist.

Then again we always have natural disasters way beyond our control to do the same thing.

Asteroid, comet, huge solar flare.



But to be positive, please feel free to share your ideas of a nicer long term future that don't require a big and eye-opening shock to people, to re-evaluate the need of their 'leaders' to enslave them with consumerist debt in return for 'safety' from the boogey man. Yesterday, socialism, today, terrorism/Islam. Tomorrow, global climate change

[toppstuff]

The main thing people are ignoring is the simple fact that IMO, Putin isn't really the man in charge.

Russia is owned, lock stock and barrel, by a ruling elite. A modern bourgeoisie. The last thing they want is an imploding economy that will cause hardship on the streets which will then make people question their leaders. Russia is going down the toilet if the oil price stays low and the rouble suffers continued pressure.

If this carries on deep into 2015, there will be changes IMO. Putin could be gone. I don't have a clue who could replace him or if replacement would be a good or a bad thing.

What is certain IMO, is that playing the nationalist card will only distract the Russian people for so long, before the economic realities start to hurt.

[Mr Whippy]

I don't know how it all works out, but if Russia are not with the USA/West, then they're against them...

So as long as Russia wants to carve it's own path in the world the West will undermine them.

So is the only end result for Russia to become a subservient nation to the West, it's wealthy elite too?


The real question is, do the Russian elite want to be poor elite in a big pond, or wealthy elite in their little pond?


Who knows what the answers to that are, but suggesting it's as clear cut as Putin swapped for someone friendly to the West = keep your wealthy elite oligarchy status isn't so clear to me.

Especially if you subscribe to the idea that the USA might be also on it's knees economically too.

Dave

[toppstuff]

Russia is essentially little more than an Oil and Gas company with a large army.

Russia has nothing the world wants to buy other than oil and gas. Russian leaders have been too short-sighted to bother improving Russian industrial competitiveness. After all, can you think of anything Russian you would want to buy? If the consumers of oil and gas find somewhere else to get their stuff, Russia has a problem.

All Russia can really do is bark a lot, like a yappy dog. Which is what it has been doing lately.

An axis between the US and the Saudis to keep the oil price low has weakened Russia more than any military or economic actions could. And there isn't really anything Russia can do about it.

[QuantumTokoloshi]

toppstuff said:

An axis between the US and the Saudis to keep the oil price low has weakened Russia more than any military or economic actions could. And there isn't really anything Russia can do about it.

It's there you are wrong. Russia has got options, ranging from economic and energy measures, all the way to proxy wars, covert wars, conventional war to global thermo-nuclear war. Russia is not Iraq or Afghanistan, it can push back hard. To wilfully destabilise a nuclear armed ex-superpower is really not a good idea.

Putin's reaction to the oil price drop and economic sanctions against Russia is going to be interesting, knee jerk or a more measure reaction. Time will tell.

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Monday 15th December 13:14

[toppstuff]

QuantumTokoloshi said:

toppstuff said:

An axis between the US and the Saudis to keep the oil price low has weakened Russia more than any military or economic actions could. And there isn't really anything Russia can do about it.

It's there you are wrong. Russia has got options, ranging from economic and energy measures, all the way to proxy wars, covert wars, conventional war to global thermo-nuclear war. Russia is not Iraq or Afghanistan, it can push back hard. To wilfully destabilise a nuclear armed ex-superpower is really not a good idea.

Putin's reaction to the oil price drop and economic sanctions against Russia is going to be interesting, knee jerk or a more measure reaction. Time will tell.

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Monday 15th December 13:14

I disagree.

Ultimately, Russia's future is bound to the success of those who wish to consume its natural resources. No amount of bullying or warmongering on their part can change this. They can bark aggressively, but they can't ultimately kill the hand that feeds them. This is not like the Soviet era. Russia is not isolated and insular any more. Any event that destroys or damages us, equally destroys or damages them. And this time, they don't have the motivation of communist doctrine. Both they and us are signed up to the same capitalist doctrine. It is not a battle of values and political thinking like it was in the cold war; it comes down to the politics of economics.

We will see what happens. But the most likely outcome will be Russia de-escalating things over 2015 and seeking a way to normalise relations while not losing face. This is bound to occur - right now it is apparent that Russian foreign policy has been disastrous to the Russian economy. Only a nationalist mood is covering this up. Sooner or later the sticking plaster of nationalism will fall off and people in Russia will appreciate the hardships Russian foreign policy has brought to them. Their leaders will seek a resolution in 2015 so that business can return to normal. There is no other choice.

[Mr Whippy]

toppstuff said:

QuantumTokoloshi said:

toppstuff said:

An axis between the US and the Saudis to keep the oil price low has weakened Russia more than any military or economic actions could. And there isn't really anything Russia can do about it.

It's there you are wrong. Russia has got options, ranging from economic and energy measures, all the way to proxy wars, covert wars, conventional war to global thermo-nuclear war. Russia is not Iraq or Afghanistan, it can push back hard. To wilfully destabilise a nuclear armed ex-superpower is really not a good idea.

Putin's reaction to the oil price drop and economic sanctions against Russia is going to be interesting, knee jerk or a more measure reaction. Time will tell.

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Monday 15th December 13:14

I disagree.

Ultimately, Russia's future is bound to the success of those who wish to consume its natural resources. No amount of bullying or warmongering on their part can change this. They can bark aggressively, but they can't ultimately kill the hand that feeds them. This is not like the Soviet era. Russia is not isolated and insular any more. Any event that destroys or damages us, equally destroys or damages them. And this time, they don't have the motivation of communist doctrine. Both they and us are signed up to the same capitalist doctrine. It is not a battle of values and political thinking like it was in the cold war; it comes down to the politics of economics.

We will see what happens. But the most likely outcome will be Russia de-escalating things over 2015 and seeking a way to normalise relations while not losing face. This is bound to occur - right now it is apparent that Russian foreign policy has been disastrous to the Russian economy. Only a nationalist mood is covering this up. Sooner or later the sticking plaster of nationalism will fall off and people in Russia will appreciate the hardships Russian foreign policy has brought to them. Their leaders will seek a resolution in 2015 so that business can return to normal. There is no other choice.

We just have to hope some fruit loop doesn't take power in Russia and then do something questionable I suppose.


As per Saudi US axis, isn't it just as likely China and Saudi could have a deal to destabilise both Russia and the USA?

Or are Saudi firmly in the USA's pocket in that regard? For certain?

Dave

[QuantumTokoloshi]

toppstuff said:

I disagree.

Ultimately, Russia's future is bound to the success of those who wish to consume its natural resources. No amount of bullying or warmongering on their part can change this. They can bark aggressively, but they can't ultimately kill the hand that feeds them. This is not like the Soviet era. Russia is not isolated and insular any more. Any event that destroys or damages us, equally destroys or damages them. And this time, they don't have the motivation of communist doctrine. Both they and us are signed up to the same capitalist doctrine. It is not a battle of values and political thinking like it was in the cold war; it comes down to the politics of economics.

We will see what happens. But the most likely outcome will be Russia de-escalating things over 2015 and seeking a way to normalise relations while not losing face. This is bound to occur - right now it is apparent that Russian foreign policy has been disastrous to the Russian economy. Only a nationalist mood is covering this up. Sooner or later the sticking plaster of nationalism will fall off and people in Russia will appreciate the hardships Russian foreign policy has brought to them. Their leaders will seek a resolution in 2015 so that business can return to normal. There is no other choice.

The question is, has Russian foreign policy been the problem or have other geopolitical players also played a substantial part in pushing and then punishing Russia for not complying ? I would guess the answer sits somewhere in the middle.

I do wonder how the USA would react if Russia passed a bill, as the US did recently for Ukraine, to overtly begin supplying Mexican nationalists with military aid or how the EU would react if Russia offered the same support to Syriza in Greece, Serbian nationalists or ETA for example.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-gooden...

It is dangerous to back a nervous animal into a corner, they tend to react badly. Squeeze Russia too hard and the law of unintended consequences begins to dominate.

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Monday 15th December 14:20

[toppstuff]

Mr Whippy said:

toppstuff said:

QuantumTokoloshi said:

toppstuff said:

An axis between the US and the Saudis to keep the oil price low has weakened Russia more than any military or economic actions could. And there isn't really anything Russia can do about it.

It's there you are wrong. Russia has got options, ranging from economic and energy measures, all the way to proxy wars, covert wars, conventional war to global thermo-nuclear war. Russia is not Iraq or Afghanistan, it can push back hard. To wilfully destabilise a nuclear armed ex-superpower is really not a good idea.

Putin's reaction to the oil price drop and economic sanctions against Russia is going to be interesting, knee jerk or a more measure reaction. Time will tell.

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Monday 15th December 13:14

I disagree.

Ultimately, Russia's future is bound to the success of those who wish to consume its natural resources. No amount of bullying or warmongering on their part can change this. They can bark aggressively, but they can't ultimately kill the hand that feeds them. This is not like the Soviet era. Russia is not isolated and insular any more. Any event that destroys or damages us, equally destroys or damages them. And this time, they don't have the motivation of communist doctrine. Both they and us are signed up to the same capitalist doctrine. It is not a battle of values and political thinking like it was in the cold war; it comes down to the politics of economics.

We will see what happens. But the most likely outcome will be Russia de-escalating things over 2015 and seeking a way to normalise relations while not losing face. This is bound to occur - right now it is apparent that Russian foreign policy has been disastrous to the Russian economy. Only a nationalist mood is covering this up. Sooner or later the sticking plaster of nationalism will fall off and people in Russia will appreciate the hardships Russian foreign policy has brought to them. Their leaders will seek a resolution in 2015 so that business can return to normal. There is no other choice.

We just have to hope some fruit loop doesn't take power in Russia and then do something questionable I suppose.


As per Saudi US axis, isn't it just as likely China and Saudi could have a deal to destabilise both Russia and the USA?

Or are Saudi firmly in the USA's pocket in that regard? For certain?

Dave

Ive not a clue about who's waiting in the wings to take over from Putin. Its bound to happen sooner or later.

China are certainly not overly friendly with Russia either. China is happy to take their oil and gas ( but at a knock down price that benefits Russia less than it might) and of course, economically, China stands to lose more from the US suffering than it would lose if they fell out with Russia. So if push came to shove, China's interests are probably best served if they are aligned with the US.

China needs the US to be economically stable. IMO this is more important to them than anything Russia wants.

[Mr Whippy]

toppstuff said:

Mr Whippy said:

toppstuff said:

QuantumTokoloshi said:

toppstuff said:

An axis between the US and the Saudis to keep the oil price low has weakened Russia more than any military or economic actions could. And there isn't really anything Russia can do about it.

It's there you are wrong. Russia has got options, ranging from economic and energy measures, all the way to proxy wars, covert wars, conventional war to global thermo-nuclear war. Russia is not Iraq or Afghanistan, it can push back hard. To wilfully destabilise a nuclear armed ex-superpower is really not a good idea.

Putin's reaction to the oil price drop and economic sanctions against Russia is going to be interesting, knee jerk or a more measure reaction. Time will tell.

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Monday 15th December 13:14

I disagree.

Ultimately, Russia's future is bound to the success of those who wish to consume its natural resources. No amount of bullying or warmongering on their part can change this. They can bark aggressively, but they can't ultimately kill the hand that feeds them. This is not like the Soviet era. Russia is not isolated and insular any more. Any event that destroys or damages us, equally destroys or damages them. And this time, they don't have the motivation of communist doctrine. Both they and us are signed up to the same capitalist doctrine. It is not a battle of values and political thinking like it was in the cold war; it comes down to the politics of economics.

We will see what happens. But the most likely outcome will be Russia de-escalating things over 2015 and seeking a way to normalise relations while not losing face. This is bound to occur - right now it is apparent that Russian foreign policy has been disastrous to the Russian economy. Only a nationalist mood is covering this up. Sooner or later the sticking plaster of nationalism will fall off and people in Russia will appreciate the hardships Russian foreign policy has brought to them. Their leaders will seek a resolution in 2015 so that business can return to normal. There is no other choice.

We just have to hope some fruit loop doesn't take power in Russia and then do something questionable I suppose.


As per Saudi US axis, isn't it just as likely China and Saudi could have a deal to destabilise both Russia and the USA?

Or are Saudi firmly in the USA's pocket in that regard? For certain?

Dave

Ive not a clue about who's waiting in the wings to take over from Putin. Its bound to happen sooner or later.

China are certainly not overly friendly with Russia either. China is happy to take their oil and gas ( but at a knock down price that benefits Russia less than it might) and of course, economically, China stands to lose more from the US suffering than it would lose if they fell out with Russia. So if push came to shove, China's interests are probably best served if they are aligned with the US.

China needs the US to be economically stable. IMO this is more important to them than anything Russia wants.

It's this circular loop that I think is at the heart of the issues.

Everyone comes back to needing to be friends with the USA. The USA who are world police and pay everyone else in their heavily unsecured, leveraged, and indebted to the hilt USD.


Messy times ahead I think. Unless the USA can miraculously grow at double digit figures for a decade or more, pay off it's debts, and keep everyone else under their thumb and reliant upon their wealth.

Hmmm

Dave

[Transmitter Man]

I thought between China & Goldman Sach's they own much of America's debt?

Phil

[Mr Whippy]

Transmitter Man said:

I thought between China & Goldman Sach's they own much of America's debt?

Phil

Owning debt is great if the debtor is good for it.

Right now China may as well have lent money to someone maxxed out on credit cards with an iffy zero hours contract!

[skyrover]

Russia backing off from Ukraine?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/15/uk-ukrain...

The Ruble is having a very hard time on the markets... crashed from 94 to 103 against the British Pound in the space of 30 minutes tonight.

It is now the worst performing currency of 2014

Edited by skyrover on Monday 15th December 19:21

[benjj]

Russia just put interest rates up by 60% at 1am local time. 10.5% to 17%.

Oof.