Voted Leave: D+1 - whats the Economic Plan

Voted Leave: D+1 - whats the Economic Plan

Author
Discussion

dav123a

1,220 posts

161 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
It's not particularly funny a lot of that is fact it's already happened. I'm sure that those who have just lost jobs on the back of this decision are rolling around on the floor laughing.

Anyone fancy a guess on what the FTSE will be down by tomorrow?

kurt535

Original Poster:

3,559 posts

119 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
fizz47 said:
kurt535 said:
D+3 and so far:

- Credit rating cut to negative
- Airbus relocation warning
- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france
- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany
- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions.
- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder
- India raises same concerns as Australia
- Currency under pressure late friday in America
- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently
- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues
- Scots off
- NI shortly after
- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland
- china raises trading concerns
- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump.

And still no economic plan from Brexit to calm the markets.
Your list is hilarious ... With some BS and cherry picking thrown in...


As for the economic plan - that's upto to those in power (eg the cabinet et al)to start sorting out except they never thought it would happen and are now throwing their toys out of the pram or burying their heads in the sand ...
Hi Fizz..happy to be caught out printing BS: show me please what you disagree with or where i am wrong?

fizz47

2,705 posts

212 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
dav123a said:
It's not particularly funny a lot of that is fact it's already happened. I'm sure that those who have just lost jobs on the back of this decision are rolling around on the floor laughing.

Anyone fancy a guess on what the FTSE will be down by tomorrow?
Someone who has lost their job is not funny at all...the point being is some of the so called facts above are BS and not taken in context - headline figures with no real reflection on the true situation...

Changes do need to be made - some people will have their jobs taken away but and at the same time new jobs will appear...


I honestly don't care what happens to the ftse tomorrow or in 2 weeks ( which I bet won't be as bad as as people predict).

What I do care about is where we are in 10 years, 20 years or even 30 years time...

I'm in it for the long haul -

Unfortunately no one has these answers yet but neither did we by staying in the the EU.

Let's get on with life rather than project doom and gloom otherwise it will become a self fulfilling prophecy ..

dav123a

1,220 posts

161 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
The problem is we can't fast forward 10 years to the land of milk and honey. It's going to be a tough slog , if it's worth it well I suppose we are going to find out. I would agree some of it is self perpetuated but the heard only started running because of brexit.

kurt535

Original Poster:

3,559 posts

119 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
dav123a said:
It's not particularly funny a lot of that is fact it's already happened. I'm sure that those who have just lost jobs on the back of this decision are rolling around on the floor laughing.

Anyone fancy a guess on what the FTSE will be down by tomorrow?
- ftse did remarkably well on friday. essentially it was above where it closed a week or so ago. euro stock markets fared worst more on basis they now hold the baby.

- nickel was down 300 on friday but considering it can fall 600 on crap china manufacturing figures that was a storm in a tea cup.

however....

- was interesting wall st et co whacked the currency and their stock market after we shut friday and i do think this will obviously have a further effect on our stock prices via the adr's

- currency does look v weak again. $1.32 looks the level to test. i've not even concentrated on the euro but the currency crisis warning isn't going away. i'd punt and say the fact the eu want formal 'sling your hook' the time buying tactic will be seen to have failed, along with the open disclosure of jobs loss warning now coming out.

negative bond outlook is the thing that gave me the worst lump in my throat. i guess a lot of people just don't realise what it means......rather like the vote outcome, so they say!!

ralphrj

3,550 posts

193 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
kurt535 said:
- ftse did remarkably well on friday. essentially it was above where it closed a week or so ago. euro stock markets fared worst more on basis they now hold the baby.
FTSE 100 dropped but then recovered as these are largely multi national companies with major earnings in US Dollars. If the Pound falls against the Dollar these companies will do better.

FTSE 250 gives a better indication of the impact on the UK economy. A 2% drop is a 'bad day', a 5% drop 'really bad', a 10% drop in week is a crash. The FTSE 250 fell 7% on Friday alone so we are passed 'really bad' and heading towards a crash.

PositronicRay

27,156 posts

185 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
kurt535 said:
fizz47 said:
kurt535 said:
D+3 and so far:

- Credit rating cut to negative
- Airbus relocation warning
- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france
- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany
- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions.
- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder
- India raises same concerns as Australia
- Currency under pressure late friday in America
- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently
- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues
- Scots off
- NI shortly after
- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland
- china raises trading concerns
- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump.

And still no economic plan from Brexit to calm the markets.
Your list is hilarious ... With some BS and cherry picking thrown in...


As for the economic plan - that's upto to those in power (eg the cabinet et al)to start sorting out except they never thought it would happen and are now throwing their toys out of the pram or burying their heads in the sand ...
Hi Fizz..happy to be caught out printing BS: show me please what you disagree with or where i am wrong?
What are you trying to say "never thought it would happen" is this including BJ MG & IDS?

FWIW

3,098 posts

99 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Markets move due to unprecedented activity. Shocker.

dav123a

1,220 posts

161 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
I realise that about the FTSE but starting from Friday is relevant.

kurt535

Original Poster:

3,559 posts

119 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
FWIW said:
Markets move due to unprecedented activity. Shocker.
Indeed they do move; the step change is a no shocker and expected on a brexet win. OP's comment on ftse 250 is valid too.

kurt535

Original Poster:

3,559 posts

119 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
PositronicRay said:
kurt535 said:
fizz47 said:
kurt535 said:
D+3 and so far:

- Credit rating cut to negative
- Airbus relocation warning
- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france
- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany
- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions.
- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder
- India raises same concerns as Australia
- Currency under pressure late friday in America
- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently
- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues
- Scots off
- NI shortly after
- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland
- china raises trading concerns
- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump.

And still no economic plan from Brexit to calm the markets.
Your list is hilarious ... With some BS and cherry picking thrown in...


As for the economic plan - that's upto to those in power (eg the cabinet et al)to start sorting out except they never thought it would happen and are now throwing their toys out of the pram or burying their heads in the sand ...
Hi Fizz..happy to be caught out printing BS: show me please what you disagree with or where i am wrong?
What are you trying to say "never thought it would happen" is this including BJ MG & IDS?
I feel it shows how quickly companies are moving to factor in brexit - not waiting for the outcome of the 2 year window - and its impact on the gdp looks likely to be felt far more quickly.

Murph7355

37,889 posts

258 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
dav123a said:
...I'm sure that those who have just lost jobs on the back of this decision are rolling around on the floor laughing.
...
Anyone who lost their job on Friday was probably working for a firm working up to that anyway regardless of the result of the vote. Nothing has changed yet, no one knows what deals are going to be done. Anyone making cast iron, expensive business decisions on the back of the vote going the Leave way is foolish. There may be little of any materiality that changes. No one knows yet. Negotiations haven't even started and won't for a little while (no matter how much Juncker stamps his feet).

- Credit rating cut to negative IIRC it was the UK's growth prospects according to Moodys that were dropped to negative. We're still AAA. Compare that to the US (AA+), Germany (AAA), France (AA), Netherlands (AAA), Italy (BBB-) etc

- Airbus relocation warning Warning so nothing more certain than the plan you are desperate for

- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france French bank repatriates trading desk to France shocker. With their tax regime, it will be interesting to see how many staff want to go there

- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany Real? http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-servi...

- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions. Nothing certain yet, just estimates from naysayers still

- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder Nothing's changed yet so BS

- India raises same concerns as Australia Links?

- Currency under pressure late friday in America Took a hit against the dollar. Not so much against the Euro. Neither as calamatously as people were trying to say. Maybe it'll all go horribly wrong next week. Maybe it won't

- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently The govt of the day will decide what any freed up cash gets spent on. If you didn't realise the Leave campaigners weren't the government, that probably says more about you than the campaign. Never trust a politician. Fortunately we are now on a path to removing a bunch of them...and a load that do not have our interests foremost

- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues Likely, nothing real. Prices have been up and down for ages. So what.

- Scots off Not even close to being real. More hurdles than the Grand National. Not least of which I still have faith that the majority of Scots aren't mental

- NI shortly after Seriously doubtful. Taking Sinn Fein too seriously on this one is misguided

- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland Links? Let's see what the Dutch do generally in the next 12mths...

- china raises trading concerns Links?

- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump. Warning, nothing real yet. But a top reason for the nation to be worried I'm sure...

stongle

5,910 posts

164 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
I think some of the job cut announcements were already en-route and Brexit just a convenient way to layoff (pun) the blame. Banks have got to start cutting costs given the regulatory thrust currently.

What will be very interesting is how this pans out. I too look a the bond markets and see pretty negative news. Claiming stocks and shs are volatile and will bounce back is nonsense. Post Lehman in 2008, we had TARP and QE / -'ve rate policy in Europe. This probably created a level of artificial price support for Equities (asset bubble). As -'ve rates, QE is not having the stimulus effect hoped, I think Brexit will be the watershed / blackswan event.

Especially as you can see the European markets got smacked on Friday. I don't think there is anything left in the armoury to help Equity markets, especially given the state of global economy.

I think we'll see a lot of the brave and the desperate driving markets over the next weeks & months with Algos greatly causing overshoot. And a lot of nonsense quoted from the "stick it to the man crowd".

You forgot that the BoE was out with a £250bn liquidity package.

Regardless, the dye is now cast we all need to get along as best possible. I think the EEA passporting is going to be exceptionally difficult and fractious (especially as Lord Hill resigned). Not good for Finance at all, longer term bad for rest of economy - but hey ho; thems the breaks.

Personnally, I think someone needs to get their ass out there with a proper plan ASAP. I'd like a UK Sovereign Wealth / Development fund set-up to invest in UK PLC infratstructure. Make it very tight investment guidleines (more so than Norges), absoluetly nothing outside England.

We also need tighter rules on Benefits (mandatory education / or community service to qualify). I dont want to see a piece of litter anywhere, ever again. Completely re-purpose education, and scale back Union powers (in conjunction with improved infratsructure developments).

I'd increase Military expenditure (at th expense of the liberals), for both defence (if rest of World goes up in flames per the Brexiter plan) and export.

Rollin

6,126 posts

247 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
dav123a said:
...I'm sure that those who have just lost jobs on the back of this decision are rolling around on the floor laughing.
...
Anyone who lost their job on Friday was probably working for a firm working up to that anyway regardless of the result of the vote. Nothing has changed yet, no one knows what deals are going to be done. Anyone making cast iron, expensive business decisions on the back of the vote going the Leave way is foolish. There may be little of any materiality that changes. No one knows yet. Negotiations haven't even started and won't for a little while (no matter how much Juncker stamps his feet).
Anyone making cast iron business investment decisions would also be foolish.

kurt535

Original Poster:

3,559 posts

119 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
dav123a said:
...I'm sure that those who have just lost jobs on the back of this decision are rolling around on the floor laughing.
...
Anyone who lost their job on Friday was probably working for a firm working up to that anyway regardless of the result of the vote. Nothing has changed yet, no one knows what deals are going to be done. Anyone making cast iron, expensive business decisions on the back of the vote going the Leave way is foolish. There may be little of any materiality that changes. No one knows yet. Negotiations haven't even started and won't for a little while (no matter how much Juncker stamps his feet).

- Credit rating cut to negative IIRC it was the UK's growth prospects according to Moodys that were dropped to negative. We're still AAA. Compare that to the US (AA+), Germany (AAA), France (AA), Netherlands (AAA), Italy (BBB-) etc

- Airbus relocation warning Warning so nothing more certain than the plan you are desperate for

- Soc Gen fx relocation back to france French bank repatriates trading desk to France shocker. With their tax regime, it will be interesting to see how many staff want to go there

- Morgan Stanley fx relocation to Germany Real? http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-servi...

- Estimations of up to 100k jobs lost in city. let me guess your comments "wa&&&&ker bankers deserve it". except the city is a major engine room in creating and attracting wealth in this country, including looking after your pensions. Nothing certain yet, just estimates from naysayers still

- Australia raise concerns over £5bn trade with UK to access EU markets suddenly harder Nothing's changed yet so BS

- India raises same concerns as Australia Links?

- Currency under pressure late friday in America Took a hit against the dollar. Not so much against the Euro. Neither as calamatously as people were trying to say. Maybe it'll all go horribly wrong next week. Maybe it won't

- £350m (gross) aint going into nhs - all a mistake apparently The govt of the day will decide what any freed up cash gets spent on. If you didn't realise the Leave campaigners weren't the government, that probably says more about you than the campaign. Never trust a politician. Fortunately we are now on a path to removing a bunch of them...and a load that do not have our interests foremost

- petrol prices likely to go up on back of currency issues Likely, nothing real. Prices have been up and down for ages. So what.

- Scots off Not even close to being real. More hurdles than the Grand National. Not least of which I still have faith that the majority of Scots aren't mental

- NI shortly after Seriously doubtful. Taking Sinn Fein too seriously on this one is misguided

- An east anglian Dutch food company informs its staff friday no more investment in uk and its food factory to re-locate in holland Links? Let's see what the Dutch do generally in the next 12mths...

- china raises trading concerns Links?

- stark warning from my pharmacist drugs prices also need to rise due to currency dump. Warning, nothing real yet. But a top reason for the nation to be worried I'm sure...
Hi Murph,

Thanks for your responses. Suggest the links you ask for are easily located on various news agencies. I find the ones outside of the EU more objective in their reporting and less sensational.

Re the dutch food company - well, I was being interviewed for a volunteer role at a museum helping with finances, etc. charity has already been warned funding likely to be affected so apply now whilst the sun still shines. half way through the person teared up. i felt a bit confused and asked what the matter was and that's when they told me about the company upping sticks on the back of the result as investing in the uk was now too much of a risk. scots will go this time and england won't be able to stop it. the majority in NI will have to be respected too. dismissing a rise in fuel down to a falling currency is head in sand a bit. the £350m comment makes me smile. remove one political for another. that works every time....too many low cognitive people swallowed the hook without any bait.

kurt535

Original Poster:

3,559 posts

119 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph, one for you re credit rating:

In between there are scores such as "BBB" or "CC". Moody's has at total of 21 ratings.
The agencies also give outlook-assessments. These are either "positive", "stable", or "negative". They indicate whether the agency in question thinks it may soon raise its rating (positive), downgrade it (negative), or leave it the same (stable) for the country in question.
In the case of Moody's and the UK, the agency currently scores the UK at "Aa1", the second highest rating on its scale, which stands for "high grade".

Yet, while Moody's previously saw no change to that Aa1 rating, it has now warned that it may lower it.
A country's credit rating can affect how much it costs a governments to borrow money on the global markets.
More specifically, the worse a nation's credit rating, the more likely it is that the country in question has to offer a higher rate of return on its bonds in other to persuade people and financial institutions to buy them.

This is because the lower a country's credit rating, the more the agencies are concerned about its economy, and in turn the taxes that the government in question can raise. Ratings can be a warning system for potential investors, and make it more expensive for poorly-rated nations to borrow money.

Although Moody's is the first of the big three ratings agencies to make an official change to its position on the UK post-referendum, the Financial Times reported on Friday that Standard & Poor's considers its current top rating for the UK as "no longer tenable".

kurt535

Original Poster:

3,559 posts

119 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
stongle said:
I think some of the job cut announcements were already en-route and Brexit just a convenient way to layoff (pun) the blame. Banks have got to start cutting costs given the regulatory thrust currently.

What will be very interesting is how this pans out. I too look a the bond markets and see pretty negative news. Claiming stocks and shs are volatile and will bounce back is nonsense. Post Lehman in 2008, we had TARP and QE / -'ve rate policy in Europe. This probably created a level of artificial price support for Equities (asset bubble). As -'ve rates, QE is not having the stimulus effect hoped, I think Brexit will be the watershed / blackswan event.

Especially as you can see the European markets got smacked on Friday. I don't think there is anything left in the armoury to help Equity markets, especially given the state of global economy.

I think we'll see a lot of the brave and the desperate driving markets over the next weeks & months with Algos greatly causing overshoot. And a lot of nonsense quoted from the "stick it to the man crowd".

You forgot that the BoE was out with a £250bn liquidity package.

Regardless, the dye is now cast we all need to get along as best possible. I think the EEA passporting is going to be exceptionally difficult and fractious (especially as Lord Hill resigned). Not good for Finance at all, longer term bad for rest of economy - but hey ho; thems the breaks.

Personnally, I think someone needs to get their ass out there with a proper plan ASAP. I'd like a UK Sovereign Wealth / Development fund set-up to invest in UK PLC infratstructure. Make it very tight investment guidleines (more so than Norges), absoluetly nothing outside England.

We also need tighter rules on Benefits (mandatory education / or community service to qualify). I dont want to see a piece of litter anywhere, ever again. Completely re-purpose education, and scale back Union powers (in conjunction with improved infratsructure developments).

I'd increase Military expenditure (at th expense of the liberals), for both defence (if rest of World goes up in flames per the Brexiter plan) and export.
Much to agree with Stongle. I think Carney was brave saying how much ammo he had. Everyone now knows what they need to work on!! EEA was vital and I can't see, currently a happy ending there as EU knows how much UK relies on city for taxes.


eharding

13,825 posts

286 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
stongle said:
Personnally, I think someone needs to get their ass out there with a proper plan ASAP. I'd like a UK Sovereign Wealth / Development fund set-up to invest in UK PLC infratstructure. Make it very tight investment guidleines (more so than Norges), absoluetly nothing outside England.
I think you might have typed 'England' there, when in fact what you really meant to say was 'South-East England'. hehe

stongle

5,910 posts

164 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Gutted about Lord Hill, he was the EC commisionner for Finance and Banking! To be replaced by a Latvian (think Hill was a big part of the concessions London won over time), so maybe some deals to be had.

Interestingly banks tend to move more simple businesses to Europe, so we'll see what we see. Certainly fighting the cause for the City will be difficult but we can hit them in the sponge on Bank Levy (and interestingly the EC screwed the Fed and CFTC on EMIR the other week so this could be interesting).

Whilst I think Brexit is a bad idea, its a done deal now. Personnally I think the majority of Brexiters will feel very short changed (especially on the immigration ticket) when they dont get the promises delivered.

Now, we need to find other very positive and achievable ways to move forward - NOT guess work (and to be fair that was spouted by both sides in the debate).

We seem to be relyig on rest of the world for Treaties, well lets start this off another way. Stick our money where our mouths (or voting cajonnes are). Self determined plan, not we'll negotiate this or that (which is important of course).

Edited by stongle on Sunday 26th June 20:27


Edited by stongle on Sunday 26th June 20:33

frisbee

5,011 posts

112 months

Sunday 26th June 2016
quotequote all
Step 1: Leave Europe
Step 2: Unknown
Step 3: Make profit

It worked for the underpant gnomes!