The economic consequences of Brexit

[SELON]

So economic consequences now are:
- pensions (even more) in the toilet
- inflation rising leading to...
- higher heating bills (and more deaths this winter)
- increased funeral costs for the aforementioned dead people
- iPhones more expensive

On the plus side...
- more overseas investors buying London property
...?

[SELON]

sanf said:

ATG said:

fblm said:

AC43 said:

They're not going to give it to us for free.

You buy 100bn a year more from them than they do from you. If anything they should be paying you.

Yeah and its 10% of their trade and 40% of ours, so who'd feel more pain if we end up with an ineffective deal?

Cards on the table, I voted remain (after a lot of reading both sides), and was a little surprised how down I felt after the vote to leave. But over the last month or so I've moved into the more positive camp - it's happened, now we've got to make it work.

% figures can be misleading - the cold hard figures are more interesting, and show why the negotiations will be so key for both sides when the actual £'s/euro figure is looked at.

The UK is Germany's 3rd biggest export market @ 89billion Euros(7%), Germany is UK's 2nd biggest importer @ 38billion euros (10.1%). So for both countries that is a big figure and both need to come to an agreement.

The UK is France's 3rd biggest export market @ 36billion Euros (7.3%), France is the UK's 5th biggest market @ 27 billion euro's (5.9%). Again big figures for both. Even countries like Germany & France will notice a hole that big in their economy.

ON a Micro level - BMW sold 1 million cars across Europe - Germany and the UK were about half of those, the UK was approx. 230,000 units. France, Italy & Spain combined were 170,000 units. So it show's the UK does have buying power.

7 of the top 10 UK export markets are EU countries - in positions 2,5,6,7,8,9,10. Interestingly the biggest export market for the UK is the USA @ US$66.5 billion -14.5% of exports, and US$20 billion higher than Germany. Switzerland (7%)is 3 and China 4 (5.9%). Outside the top 10 - 11.UAE (2.2% US$10.3 billion), 12.Hong Kong (2.1% US$9.6 billion), 13.South Korea (1.5% US$7 billion), 14.Saudi Arabia (1.5% US$6.7 billion) must all be factored in when the UK is thinking outside the world of EU for trade.

When countries with trade deficits are looked at - 7 of the top 10 are EU countries, Germany leads the way with 50 billion Euro - China & Canada are the two non EU nations, Norway is also there. Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, France, Spain & Poland - the UK has a deficit of approx. 5 billion euro or more. For each of those that is a lot of trade. For Germany the surplus with the UK (50billion Euro) is second behind the US @ 54billion Euro. France is next @ 36billion euro.

The UK top 5 surplus countries are: Switzerland, USA, UAE, Honk Kong, Ireland. Ultimately the UK runs a £96 billion a year trade deficit with the EU and approx. £45 billion with the rest of the world. That is a big chunk of business that either - the UK can try and make in house, or alternatively encourage the rest of the world to come and get it.

The negotiations will be long, complex and difficult - and while it shouldn't be over egged, the UK's value to the main EU countries should not be underplayed. If the smaller EU countries are seen to block/delay trade deals between the EU/UK which will impact the bigger EU countries more that could have the unintended consequence of more populations starting to feel fed-up with the EU - which would not be good for the future. Chuck into the mix the Italian banking issues, and Greece problems re-appearing, elections in France & Germany - all before we leave the EU, it is one seriously complex moving feast.

Ultimately if our negotiating team make a mess of the deal then the country will have some serious issues to deal with - so hopefully they won't. I would like to be positive and hope for the best, yes it could be challenging but the UK is a great innovative place to live, innovation and specialist business sectors are what we excel at and should build on.

I know an angel investor who having made a lot of money in business now re-invests in FinTech start-up's - not only in the UK but globally. His view is the UK is still the place to be (especially London) for up and coming new businesses that are looking to trade with the world, not just the EU.

While it's not yet a bed of roses, it's not dire either, the trade figures with Germany/France/Italy/Spain/Poland are big figures for their economy. Yes the figures are big for us too - but it goes both ways - France as a % of the UK exports is 5.9% where as it's 7.3% for France. While Germany is 10.1% for the UK and 'only' 7% for Germany, but the massive surplus Germany has with the UK makes that 7% just as important.

Sorry the figures are a mixture of Euro & US$ they are the ones I've referenced. Too many people are trying to make Brexit a soundbite with simple answers - it's not it's complex, so far the government seems to be taking a solid methodical approach - and I like the 'not providing a running commentary' approach - which the press may hate. Ultimately I'm optimistic, hopefully time will prove that to correct, it's in the hands of the folks running the UK now

Very good points.

Would only say that for all the moaning at the remain camp for talking Britain down, the leave camp have been advertising desperately for someone to do a trade deal with us. That's a poor way to start negotiation and does real damage. Ironic that.

Also, our EU allies aren't going to be inclined to be generous to us due to, amongst other things, the anti EU rhetoric and abuse. So they may be inclined to do a bit of cutting their noses off...

An example of how Britain is really calling the shots is that we are paying for the wall - to a public road - in Calais. Who really thinks we held the upper hand in that little negotiation? We paid £ms for a public road in France to have a wall.

[powerstroke]

Jimboka said:

powerstroke said:

pim said:

ATG said:

You don't seem to grasp that "ever closer union" was meaningless.

One more time. How could the UK have been forced into a superstate against its will?

It's a really simple question.

Put up or shut up.

Good points ATG.

Nobody could have forced the UK to be part of a superstate.

We had the best of the E.U.No Schengen,No Euro and part of a massive Trade Zone.

And it won't be the same after Article 50 and we start to leave this Union after so many years.

What worries me is that so many ordinary people will pay a heavy price,I hope I'm wrong.

You are wrong , and we once again have made a positive input into the future of Europe !!!!
weaker smaller countrys are now feel able to question the direction of the EU,
Brexit = democracy for europe ....

You are wrong
Brexit, if it happens, cannot be seen as good for Europe. Doubtful if good for us too. Massive gamble & our closest trading nations have a vested interest in making it as uncomfortable as possible.
No worries, I'm sure Australia & Mexico will be a far better ootion ...

Brexit is bad for the EU but good for Europe .... Trade is trade and even the corrupt and meddlesome crock of ste commies that run the EU won't stop trade!!! if they try to punish us for dareing to question their nasty empire by adding tarrifs to our exports, hopefully our government will tax there stty cars ,trucks etc back , It would be nice to see fewer german cars clogging up our roads!!! I live in hope

Edited by powerstroke on Thursday 8th September 23:46

[tumble dryer]

sanf said:

Cards on the table, I voted remain (after a lot of reading both sides), and was a little surprised how down I felt after the vote to leave. But over the last month or so I've moved into the more positive camp - it's happened, now we've got to make it work.

% figures can be misleading - the cold hard figures are more interesting, and show why the negotiations will be so key for both sides when the actual £'s/euro figure is looked at.

The UK is Germany's 3rd biggest export market @ 89billion Euros(7%), Germany is UK's 2nd biggest importer @ 38billion euros (10.1%). So for both countries that is a big figure and both need to come to an agreement.

The UK is France's 3rd biggest export market @ 36billion Euros (7.3%), France is the UK's 5th biggest market @ 27 billion euro's (5.9%). Again big figures for both. Even countries like Germany & France will notice a hole that big in their economy.

ON a Micro level - BMW sold 1 million cars across Europe - Germany and the UK were about half of those, the UK was approx. 230,000 units. France, Italy & Spain combined were 170,000 units. So it show's the UK does have buying power.

7 of the top 10 UK export markets are EU countries - in positions 2,5,6,7,8,9,10. Interestingly the biggest export market for the UK is the USA @ US$66.5 billion -14.5% of exports, and US$20 billion higher than Germany. Switzerland (7%)is 3 and China 4 (5.9%). Outside the top 10 - 11.UAE (2.2% US$10.3 billion), 12.Hong Kong (2.1% US$9.6 billion), 13.South Korea (1.5% US$7 billion), 14.Saudi Arabia (1.5% US$6.7 billion) must all be factored in when the UK is thinking outside the world of EU for trade.

When countries with trade deficits are looked at - 7 of the top 10 are EU countries, Germany leads the way with 50 billion Euro - China & Canada are the two non EU nations, Norway is also there. Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, France, Spain & Poland - the UK has a deficit of approx. 5 billion euro or more. For each of those that is a lot of trade. For Germany the surplus with the UK (50billion Euro) is second behind the US @ 54billion Euro. France is next @ 36billion euro.

The UK top 5 surplus countries are: Switzerland, USA, UAE, Honk Kong, Ireland. Ultimately the UK runs a £96 billion a year trade deficit with the EU and approx. £45 billion with the rest of the world. That is a big chunk of business that either - the UK can try and make in house, or alternatively encourage the rest of the world to come and get it.

The negotiations will be long, complex and difficult - and while it shouldn't be over egged, the UK's value to the main EU countries should not be underplayed. If the smaller EU countries are seen to block/delay trade deals between the EU/UK which will impact the bigger EU countries more that could have the unintended consequence of more populations starting to feel fed-up with the EU - which would not be good for the future. Chuck into the mix the Italian banking issues, and Greece problems re-appearing, elections in France & Germany - all before we leave the EU, it is one seriously complex moving feast.

Ultimately if our negotiating team make a mess of the deal then the country will have some serious issues to deal with - so hopefully they won't. I would like to be positive and hope for the best, yes it could be challenging but the UK is a great innovative place to live, innovation and specialist business sectors are what we excel at and should build on.

I know an angel investor who having made a lot of money in business now re-invests in FinTech start-up's - not only in the UK but globally. His view is the UK is still the place to be (especially London) for up and coming new businesses that are looking to trade with the world, not just the EU.

While it's not yet a bed of roses, it's not dire either, the trade figures with Germany/France/Italy/Spain/Poland are big figures for their economy. Yes the figures are big for us too - but it goes both ways - France as a % of the UK exports is 5.9% where as it's 7.3% for France. While Germany is 10.1% for the UK and 'only' 7% for Germany, but the massive surplus Germany has with the UK makes that 7% just as important.

Sorry the figures are a mixture of Euro & US$ they are the ones I've referenced. Too many people are trying to make Brexit a soundbite with simple answers - it's not it's complex, so far the government seems to be taking a solid methodical approach - and I like the 'not providing a running commentary' approach - which the press may hate. Ultimately I'm optimistic, hopefully time will prove that to correct, it's in the hands of the folks running the UK now

Great post. On the nose.

[Jockman]

SELON said:

An example of how Britain is really calling the shots is that we are paying for the wall - to a public road - in Calais. Who really thinks we held the upper hand in that little negotiation? We paid £ms for a public road in France to have a wall.

You may not be aware but GB has been paying France for quite some time now to keep the 'jungle' in Calais.

[Jockman]

mike9009 said:

Could you also argue that the 13% of companies who do export to the EU provide 87% of UK GDP or perhaps even more based on the facts below? Therefore, the 87% of companies not reliant on EU exports becomes ever more irrelevant to the whole of the UK economy. Again I assume the '87%' fact is trotted out to show that 87% of the UK economy (assumed correlation between # companies and amount of trade) does not rely on EU trade and so why bother? The EU is obviously not important to UK trade?

<95% of the 5.2M UK companies employ less than 9 people. 76% of UK companies do not have any employees. The top 100 UK companies (FTSE100) generates 81% of GDP>

Mike

Edited by mike9009 on Thursday 8th September 23:43

I think you've misread the post.

The 87% figure does not correlate with the amount of companies that will be affected by trading with the EU.

It simply shows the % of UK companies whose needs must be considered by the Govt in negotiations. In satisfying their needs the theory follows that those in the supply chain will be satisfied too.

I have no idea why employee levels or GDP figures even need to be mentioned.

The 87% are very important to the economy too as many of them are not only suppliers to the big boys but they are customers too. It's an interdependence.

[SELON]

Jockman said:

SELON said:

An example of how Britain is really calling the shots is that we are paying for the wall - to a public road - in Calais. Who really thinks we held the upper hand in that little negotiation? We paid £ms for a public road in France to have a wall.

You may not be aware but GB has been paying France for quite some time now to keep the 'jungle' in Calais.

I am and the point remains valid.

[SidewaysSi]

powerstroke said:

Jimboka said:

powerstroke said:

pim said:

ATG said:

You don't seem to grasp that "ever closer union" was meaningless.

One more time. How could the UK have been forced into a superstate against its will?

It's a really simple question.

Put up or shut up.

Good points ATG.

Nobody could have forced the UK to be part of a superstate.

We had the best of the E.U.No Schengen,No Euro and part of a massive Trade Zone.

And it won't be the same after Article 50 and we start to leave this Union after so many years.

What worries me is that so many ordinary people will pay a heavy price,I hope I'm wrong.

You are wrong , and we once again have made a positive input into the future of Europe !!!!
weaker smaller countrys are now feel able to question the direction of the EU,
Brexit = democracy for europe ....

You are wrong
Brexit, if it happens, cannot be seen as good for Europe. Doubtful if good for us too. Massive gamble & our closest trading nations have a vested interest in making it as uncomfortable as possible.
No worries, I'm sure Australia & Mexico will be a far better ootion ...

Brexit is bad for the EU but good for Europe .... Trade is trade and even the corrupt and meddlesome crock of ste commies that run the EU won't stop trade!!! if they try to punish us for dareing to question their nasty empire by adding tarrifs to our exports, hopefully our government will tax there stty cars ,trucks etc back , It would be nice to see fewer german cars clogging up our roads!!! I live in hope

Edited by powerstroke on Thursday 8th September 23:46

I agree, less German and French cars. Hateful things. Our boys will shown them - let's get Longbridge back up and beat them at their own game.

No chance push governmental won't get a cracking trade deal IMO - our ministers are top notch and all know everything about how things work.

[Jockman]

SELON said:

Jockman said:

SELON said:

An example of how Britain is really calling the shots is that we are paying for the wall - to a public road - in Calais. Who really thinks we held the upper hand in that little negotiation? We paid £ms for a public road in France to have a wall.

You may not be aware but GB has been paying France for quite some time now to keep the 'jungle' in Calais.

I am and the point remains valid.

I'm failing to see the point, though. Should we not assist the French with the costs?

[don4l]

Price Waterhouse Cooper joins Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, in upgrading Britain's economic prospects.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/708560/Doom-...

More bad news for those people who want to see their country suffer!

[ATG]

don4l said:

More bad news for those people who want to see their country suffer!

Who are they?

[walm]

ATG said:

don4l said:

More bad news for those people who want to see their country suffer!

Who are they?

Brexiteers?

[Digga]

ATG said:

A good question, and if its members choose to head in that direction, then so be it, but we could have waited to see how it played out before jumping ship. The Euro doesn't require fiscal union; it requires fiscal discipline. The question is whether the more dysfunctional members can ever manage to impose that discipline on themselves. I expect there will be further economic integration in the Eurozone. I doubt anyone is going to want to cede foreign policy or criminal law, so no superstate. And probably a two speed EU that risks becoming an uncomfortable ride for non-Eurozone members.

I think you're absolutely correct, you hit the crux of the issue here. However, I cannot see easy reform for places like Italy and Greece and, to a lesser extent Spain, in terms of cronysim, corruption and tax avoidance, and as far as France goes, it is a very long way of reforming labour and business laws to suit the global economy. And I really cannot see the Germans and Austrians wanting to absorb the debt of these nations, as much as they benefit from sharing a currency with them.

tumble dryer said:

sanf said:

Cards on the table, I voted remain (after a lot of reading both sides)... <cropped to keep thread tidy, but all excellent points>

Sorry the figures are a mixture of Euro & US$ they are the ones I've referenced. Too many people are trying to make Brexit a soundbite with simple answers - it's not it's complex, so far the government seems to be taking a solid methodical approach - and I like the 'not providing a running commentary' approach - which the press may hate. Ultimately I'm optimistic, hopefully time will prove that to correct, it's in the hands of the folks running the UK now

Great post. On the nose.

+1 A brilliant take and a very pragmatic remain vote and post-vote outlook.

[AC43]

sanf said:

ATG said:

fblm said:

AC43 said:

They're not going to give it to us for free.

You buy 100bn a year more from them than they do from you. If anything they should be paying you.

Yeah and its 10% of their trade and 40% of ours, so who'd feel more pain if we end up with an ineffective deal?

Cards on the table, I voted remain (after a lot of reading both sides), and was a little surprised how down I felt after the vote to leave. But over the last month or so I've moved into the more positive camp - it's happened, now we've got to make it work.

% figures can be misleading - the cold hard figures are more interesting, and show why the negotiations will be so key for both sides when the actual £'s/euro figure is looked at.

The UK is Germany's 3rd biggest export market @ 89billion Euros(7%), Germany is UK's 2nd biggest importer @ 38billion euros (10.1%). So for both countries that is a big figure and both need to come to an agreement.

The UK is France's 3rd biggest export market @ 36billion Euros (7.3%), France is the UK's 5th biggest market @ 27 billion euro's (5.9%). Again big figures for both. Even countries like Germany & France will notice a hole that big in their economy.

ON a Micro level - BMW sold 1 million cars across Europe - Germany and the UK were about half of those, the UK was approx. 230,000 units. France, Italy & Spain combined were 170,000 units. So it show's the UK does have buying power.

7 of the top 10 UK export markets are EU countries - in positions 2,5,6,7,8,9,10. Interestingly the biggest export market for the UK is the USA @ US$66.5 billion -14.5% of exports, and US$20 billion higher than Germany. Switzerland (7%)is 3 and China 4 (5.9%). Outside the top 10 - 11.UAE (2.2% US$10.3 billion), 12.Hong Kong (2.1% US$9.6 billion), 13.South Korea (1.5% US$7 billion), 14.Saudi Arabia (1.5% US$6.7 billion) must all be factored in when the UK is thinking outside the world of EU for trade.

When countries with trade deficits are looked at - 7 of the top 10 are EU countries, Germany leads the way with 50 billion Euro - China & Canada are the two non EU nations, Norway is also there. Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, France, Spain & Poland - the UK has a deficit of approx. 5 billion euro or more. For each of those that is a lot of trade. For Germany the surplus with the UK (50billion Euro) is second behind the US @ 54billion Euro. France is next @ 36billion euro.

The UK top 5 surplus countries are: Switzerland, USA, UAE, Honk Kong, Ireland. Ultimately the UK runs a £96 billion a year trade deficit with the EU and approx. £45 billion with the rest of the world. That is a big chunk of business that either - the UK can try and make in house, or alternatively encourage the rest of the world to come and get it.

The negotiations will be long, complex and difficult - and while it shouldn't be over egged, the UK's value to the main EU countries should not be underplayed. If the smaller EU countries are seen to block/delay trade deals between the EU/UK which will impact the bigger EU countries more that could have the unintended consequence of more populations starting to feel fed-up with the EU - which would not be good for the future. Chuck into the mix the Italian banking issues, and Greece problems re-appearing, elections in France & Germany - all before we leave the EU, it is one seriously complex moving feast.

Ultimately if our negotiating team make a mess of the deal then the country will have some serious issues to deal with - so hopefully they won't. I would like to be positive and hope for the best, yes it could be challenging but the UK is a great innovative place to live, innovation and specialist business sectors are what we excel at and should build on.

I know an angel investor who having made a lot of money in business now re-invests in FinTech start-up's - not only in the UK but globally. His view is the UK is still the place to be (especially London) for up and coming new businesses that are looking to trade with the world, not just the EU.

While it's not yet a bed of roses, it's not dire either, the trade figures with Germany/France/Italy/Spain/Poland are big figures for their economy. Yes the figures are big for us too - but it goes both ways - France as a % of the UK exports is 5.9% where as it's 7.3% for France. While Germany is 10.1% for the UK and 'only' 7% for Germany, but the massive surplus Germany has with the UK makes that 7% just as important.

Sorry the figures are a mixture of Euro & US$ they are the ones I've referenced. Too many people are trying to make Brexit a soundbite with simple answers - it's not it's complex, so far the government seems to be taking a solid methodical approach - and I like the 'not providing a running commentary' approach - which the press may hate. Ultimately I'm optimistic, hopefully time will prove that to correct, it's in the hands of the folks running the UK now

One of the bast post yet. A lot of us (myself included) have been guilty of emotive snap shots rather than a more detailed, more considered approach.

Fighting emotion with facts is always a good approach.

I hope you're right that the govt are approaching the whole thing in a methodical way.

TM certainly looks like a safe pair of hands and seems to be enjoying broad support of the schizo Tories. For now, anyway.

Hopefully she can reign the, er, "more impulsive" David Davis.

[anonymous-user]

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTra...

Some figures for July. ^

[Murph7355]

sanf said:

Cards on the table, I voted remain (after a lot of reading both sides), and was a little surprised how down I felt after the vote to leave. But over the last month or so I've moved into the more positive camp - it's happened, now we've got to make it work.
...

Ultimately I'm optimistic, hopefully time will prove that to correct, it's in the hands of the folks running the UK now

To the weiners who ask how they should embrace the result, read the above. Great post.

[Murph7355]

AC43 said:

...
Hopefully she can reign the, er, "more impulsive" David Davis.

I think he'll prove just fine.

If you're referring to his single market comments, I believe the full quote was caveated with something along the lines of "if we have to accept full free movement of people".

What we're seeing at the moment is, IME, natural when a team is pulled together with a 30,000ft view of what needs to happen and they start to go through the details and options of preparation ahead of the sleeves up work needing to start.

I'm far happier with the approach thus far than if they'd simply triggered Article 50 and then run round like headless chickens. Many seem to think that's what should have happened. It would not have resulted in good outcomes.

We have become a massively impatient, media driven society that has little in the way of patience. Our fecked up finances and the way our governments have been operating for the last 20yrs are, IMO, a result of this. It's all short termist bks.

[walm]

Murph7355 said:

To the weiners who ask how they should embrace the result, read the above. Great post.

[don4l]

ATG said:

don4l said:

Price Waterhouse Cooper joins Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, in upgrading Britain's economic prospects.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/708560/Doom-...
More bad news for those people who want to see their country suffer!

Who are they?

Can you explain why you snipped my post?

Failing that, perhaps you could explain why you think that the PWC story is good news?

... thought not.

[Digga]

Mr 'spoons gives his opinion on the matter: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37315860