World War 3??

[Taz46]

Good points of view. One thing il add though is that if the worst happens then North Korea wouldnt need to last 5 days in a world war to cause millions of deaths and total carnage. One well placed nuclear warhead aimed at a major city will cause this.

[hairykrishna]

Taz46 said:

Good points of view. One thing il add though is that if the worst happens then North Korea wouldnt need to last 5 days in a world war to cause millions of deaths and total carnage. One well placed nuclear warhead aimed at a major city will cause this.

I'd bet large amounts of money that NK don't have a deliverable nuclear weapon that could cause millions of deaths.

[jmorgan]

hairykrishna said:

Taz46 said:

Good points of view. One thing il add though is that if the worst happens then North Korea wouldnt need to last 5 days in a world war to cause millions of deaths and total carnage. One well placed nuclear warhead aimed at a major city will cause this.

I'd bet large amounts of money that NK don't have a deliverable nuclear weapon that could cause millions of deaths.

Can you fit a nuke in a shipping container?

[hairykrishna]

jmorgan said:

hairykrishna said:

Taz46 said:

Good points of view. One thing il add though is that if the worst happens then North Korea wouldnt need to last 5 days in a world war to cause millions of deaths and total carnage. One well placed nuclear warhead aimed at a major city will cause this.

I'd bet large amounts of money that NK don't have a deliverable nuclear weapon that could cause millions of deaths.

Can you fit a nuke in a shipping container?

Easily yes. It's surprisingly hard to hide one now a lot of ports have detectors though. I suspect, based on how crap their test nukes were, that 'millions' would be an overestimate even if they do set one off. It's only guesswork of course but I doubt Kim Jong has a big one stashed away.

[sneijder]

I'm fairly sure NK wouldn't be interested in killing millions of civilians. I think.

[Taz46]

Ok maybe millions is a bit much! defiantly thousands though. The last atomic bomb was dropped on hiroshima 65 years ago, and killed an estimated 166,000 people. so just imagine how much technology has advanced since then so maybe millions isn't out of the question!

[hairykrishna]

Taz46 said:

Ok maybe millions is a bit much! defiantly thousands though. The last atomic bomb was dropped on hiroshima 65 years ago, and killed an estimated 166,000 people. so just imagine how much technology has advanced since then so maybe millions isn't out of the question!

I'd say thousands or low hundreds of thousands was a reasonable estimate. Not good still! NK are still operating on WW2 nuke tech and they're short of plutonium. Their tests were a 10th or less the power of the Horoshima bomb.

[FourWheelDrift]

Secret video smuggled out of North Korean showing their latest nuclear test - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVSm0O7SiFc

You will spot it was taken in Kim Jong-Il's back garden, just behind the shed.

[Jimbeaux]

Shaid GTB said:

FourWheelDrift said:

As for North Korea they wouldn't last 5 days in a modern war. Badly equipped soldiers and poorly supplied with food. The only fat people in North Korea are Kim Il Jung and his obese offspring.

;) Realistically they would last a lot longer than five days.

Actually, no they would not. They would likely be combat ineffective in about that time IMO.

[Jimbeaux]

Shaid GTB said:

sneijder said:

What I have seen though is that the US plough into your Vietmans and Afghanistans and get stuck with the local greengrocer and his AK47.

I think that sums it all up really. I really do not believe that the US will join in on this war. Can they even afford it?

Guys, the NK can be cutoff by air after their initial advance, no logistics and communications will be taken out. That huge army will be isolated and killed from the air. Other than the initial clash between the north and south line forces, surprisingly few troops will be involved here other than the North's. There is a very good chance that tactical artillery nukes would be used to halt the initial advance anyway. Part of the US battle plan for this contingency are five carrier battle groups; that means air intensive.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Friday 26th November 01:16

[WhoseGeneration]

Jimbeaux said:

There is a very good chance that tactical artillery nukes would be used

Edited by Jimbeaux on Friday 26th November 01:16

There I have to disagree with you.
That is one weapon the Western leaders will not use.
All military operations post WW2, they have not authorised the use of nuclear weapons, despite that use possibly providing "victory".
They will not change that view.
Rather many troops die than open the nuclear floodgate, will be their decision.
No country is able to deal with the aftermath of nuclear weapons.
So, retain for Armageddon is the reasoning.
NK stuff ain't that.

[Mr Dave]

It would be good TV for a while anyway. DPRKs counter battery fire seemed pretty effective in that it did kill 2 marines crewing their gun. They probably have good old fashioned skills instead of relying entirely on electronics. The country is malnourished, not straving and their leadership/officers are pretty loyal and fanatical but I still think they would break after two or three days of being dry bummed by ROKAF and USAF/USN air attacks. Although the truely woeful landscape of DPRK would prove slightly problematic for airpower. Might take 3 days instead of 2 to completely abuse DPRKs army in new and imaginative ways involving JDAMS.

Nothing will happen though so back to the same old monotony of strictly jungle celebrity x and the royal wedding.

Shmae I have a strange disliking for Koreans from both countries, they are all as bad as each other and entirely full of hatred for each other and they all seem brainwashed. the south annoys me more because they always claim innocence in these incidents which the BBC will support even though the truth doesnt always back this.

Anyway I await the Best Korea war effort as they are definately some of the most insane people going and they have a certain panache to their operations. Noone else carries out utterly lunatic plans with such elán and flair.

[jmorgan]

Jimbeaux said:

five carrier battle groups;

Whilst I am in no way suggesting the Chinese have or will or anything at all to do here, have they worked out how a Chinese sub popped up n the midst of a US exercise unannounced? Not paid attention after the initial news report.

[Jimbeaux]

WhoseGeneration said:

Jimbeaux said:

There is a very good chance that tactical artillery nukes would be used

Edited by Jimbeaux on Friday 26th November 01:16

There I have to disagree with you.
That is one weapon the Western leaders will not use.
All military operations post WW2, they have not authorised the use of nuclear weapons, despite that use possibly providing "victory".
They will not change that view.
Rather many troops die than open the nuclear floodgate, will be their decision.
No country is able to deal with the aftermath of nuclear weapons.
So, retain for Armageddon is the reasoning.
NK stuff ain't that.

That is my view as well; I agree. However, I have been told by those who were once involved with this specific scenario and they say artillery nukes are in the plan as they were for the Fulder Gap scenario in the Cold War. Current leaders may change that, I don't know. In some ways, artillery nukes are not near the scale as "regular nukes"; then again, a nuke is a nuke.

[Jimbeaux]

Mr Dave said:

It would be good TV for a while anyway. DPRKs counter battery fire seemed pretty effective in that it did kill 2 marines crewing their gun. They probably have good old fashioned skills instead of relying entirely on electronics. The country is malnourished, not straving and their leadership/officers are pretty loyal and fanatical but I still think they would break after two or three days of being dry bummed by ROKAF and USAF/USN air attacks. Although the truely woeful landscape of DPRK would prove slightly problematic for airpower. Might take 3 days instead of 2 to completely abuse DPRKs army in new and imaginative ways involving JDAMS.

Nothing will happen though so back to the same old monotony of strictly jungle celebrity x and the royal wedding.

Shmae I have a strange disliking for Koreans from both countries, they are all as bad as each other and entirely full of hatred for each other and they all seem brainwashed. the south annoys me more because they always claim innocence in these incidents which the BBC will support even though the truth doesnt always back this.

Anyway I await the Best Korea war effort as they are definately some of the most insane people going and they have a certain panache to their operations. Noone else carries out utterly lunatic plans with such elán and flair.

Good post.

[Jimbeaux]

jmorgan said:

Jimbeaux said:

five carrier battle groups;

Whilst I am in no way suggesting the Chinese have or will or anything at all to do here, have they worked out how a Chinese sub popped up n the midst of a US exercise unannounced? Not paid attention after the initial news report.

There are safeguards in place for that scenario, Chinese or otherwise. That is a job for the "Group" portion of the Battlegroup.

[sneijder]

I quite fancy the North to give it a go to be honest. Depends what the plan of action is. Would the world police push north of the border ? If not, they'll just be sitting there for years throwing things over the fence. If they do push north to dish up lots of freedom it'll be a ststorm. They'll be left with a pile of crap to sort that'll take years.

Rather than take years and bazillions of dollars to sort it out, I'd be tempted to sit it out for a generation, give as good as you get. When the Dear Leader is gone, I'm sure in not so many years they'll be coming cap in hand to the rest of the world.

[Jimbeaux]

sneijder said:

I quite fancy the North to give it a go to be honest. Depends what the plan of action is. Would the world police push north of the border ? If not, they'll just be sitting there for years throwing things over the fence. If they do push north to dish up lots of freedom it'll be a ststorm. They'll be left with a pile of crap to sort that'll take years.

Rather than take years and bazillions of dollars to sort it out, I'd be tempted to sit it out for a generation, give as good as you get. When the Dear Leader is gone, I'm sure in not so many years they'll be coming cap in hand to the rest of the world.

It is the South Koreans, not "the world police" who have the vast majority of soldiers there. I wouldn't think a "push north" will be the order of the day as much as to stop the push south.

[cardigankid]

sneijder said:

Rather than take years and bazillions of dollars to sort it out, I'd be tempted to sit it out for a generation, give as good as you get. When the Dear Leader is gone, I'm sure in not so many years they'll be coming cap in hand to the rest of the world.

If we can sit it out for a few years without them doing something really irresponsible, then they will probably implode. That has to be the best plan. Going for it militarily is rarely the best option. I bet some of their top brass are just itching for SK or the USA to try it. They can't have many real friends, now both Russia and China are basically PLC's and more interested in making children's toys than exporting international Communism.

[Pommygranite]

There'll be no push just a war of warheads.