How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[J4CKO]

I think things have officially gone mad, one went up over the road at 100/125 grand more than I would have expected, had several buyers in a week and they resorted to sealed bids above the asking price, so probably 150 grand more than I would have thought it was worth.

All very well, this middle class self congratulatory house price stuff but I have three kids that will need to get something in the next five or so years, a 3 bed family house shouldnt be that expensive.

[Sheepshanks]

J4CKO said:

I think things have officially gone mad, one went up over the road at 100/125 grand more than I would have expected, had several buyers in a week and they resorted to sealed bids above the asking price, so probably 150 grand more than I would have thought it was worth.

All very well, this middle class self congratulatory house price stuff but I have three kids that will need to get something in the next five or so years, a 3 bed family house shouldnt be that expensive.

I see your profile says you're in Cheshire - I'm in a village in west Cheshire and anything that looks even slightly OTT price-wise is just sitting there.

Someone mentioned proximity to good schools earlier - an issue all over West Cheshire and into Chester is the good schools are rammed so young families won't move into the area as they can't get places for their kids.

[Hitch]

I'm also in west Cheshire and there are a couple of agents who seem to regularly float properties at 30% above their probable value. I see things moving but there are a lot of reductions flowing through. It seems only occasionally do houses come on and sell in a week or two.

[sooperscoop]

Timberwolf said:

There's some suggestion that with prices in the capital looking rather peaky, Manchester is being seen as the "next London" by overseas investors: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36086012

Friends in Shanghai have been going to "Buy in Manchester!' presentations for at least 3 years. The Chinese always flock to where the Chinese already are.

If the centre of Manchester can keep hold of it's prices, then the outskirts are very attractive, there's plenty of nice areas with 200k semis within 20 mins commute of the centre.

[J4CKO]

Sheepshanks said:

J4CKO said:

I think things have officially gone mad, one went up over the road at 100/125 grand more than I would have expected, had several buyers in a week and they resorted to sealed bids above the asking price, so probably 150 grand more than I would have thought it was worth.

All very well, this middle class self congratulatory house price stuff but I have three kids that will need to get something in the next five or so years, a 3 bed family house shouldnt be that expensive.

I see your profile says you're in Cheshire - I'm in a village in west Cheshire and anything that looks even slightly OTT price-wise is just sitting there.

Someone mentioned proximity to good schools earlier - an issue all over West Cheshire and into Chester is the good schools are rammed so young families won't move into the area as they can't get places for their kids.

East Cheshire, must be that specific property, very nicely done, short walk to a good school, other stuff in the same price range isn't moving, but a lot of it is ugly seventies stuff or initially impressive stuff that is hemmed in and hanging from the a34 bypass in a less desirable area.

[Hitch]

sooperscoop said:

Friends in Shanghai have been going to "Buy in Manchester!' presentations for at least 3 years. The Chinese always flock to where the Chinese already are.

If the centre of Manchester can keep hold of it's prices, then the outskirts are very attractive, there's plenty of nice areas with 200k semis within 20 mins commute of the centre.

But these seminars are usually centred on some big infrastructure development which is claimed to be the catalyst for business investment and residential growth. What are they claiming is happening in Manchester?!

[number 46]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Who? sounds like one of Jordan's kids?!!

[okgo]

J4CKO said:

I think things have officially gone mad, one went up over the road at 100/125 grand more than I would have expected, had several buyers in a week and they resorted to sealed bids above the asking price, so probably 150 grand more than I would have thought it was worth.

All very well, this middle class self congratulatory house price stuff but I have three kids that will need to get something in the next five or so years, a 3 bed family house shouldnt be that expensive.

So that is all based on 'your opinion' of what things are worth - means very little really.

A 3 bed house opposite me sold for over £850k the other month - a mate of mine bought almost the same property about 100m down the same road for £580k when I bought mine in July 2013 - I thought £580k was probably toppy, as above though, didn't really mean anything as since then every single house on the road has gone for 7 plus.

Edited by okgo on Thursday 16th June 09:11

[Timmy40]

Hitch said:

sooperscoop said:

Friends in Shanghai have been going to "Buy in Manchester!' presentations for at least 3 years. The Chinese always flock to where the Chinese already are.

If the centre of Manchester can keep hold of it's prices, then the outskirts are very attractive, there's plenty of nice areas with 200k semis within 20 mins commute of the centre.

But these seminars are usually centred on some big infrastructure development which is claimed to be the catalyst for business investment and residential growth. What are they claiming is happening in Manchester?!

Loads of Chinese students. Interestingly there was a program on R4 recently about the booming China town in Manchester due to the huge numnber of Chinese students there.

I assume a wealthy Chinese family would be quite likely to decide to buy a flat their kid could use whilst at Uni then rent it out afterwards as an investment and handy way of having some money out of China ( just incase ).

[J4CKO]

okgo said:

J4CKO said:

I think things have officially gone mad, one went up over the road at 100/125 grand more than I would have expected, had several buyers in a week and they resorted to sealed bids above the asking price, so probably 150 grand more than I would have thought it was worth.

All very well, this middle class self congratulatory house price stuff but I have three kids that will need to get something in the next five or so years, a 3 bed family house shouldnt be that expensive.

So that is all based on 'your opinion' of what things are worth - means very little really.

A 3 bed house opposite me sold for over £850k the other month - a mate of mine bought almost the same property about 100m down the same road for £580k when I bought mine in July 2013 - I thought £580k was probably toppy, as above though, didn't really mean anything as since then every single house on the road has gone for 7 plus.

Edited by okgo on Thursday 16th June 09:11

Yeah, I was surprised at the asking price, I thought it was perhaps testing the water, but I am not an estate agent and had an out of date idea of prices which has been altered.

i think some of the neighbours are perhaps scanning rightmove all the time and obsessed with prices, one spotted it and told the owner she thought it was too cheap, seemingly she was right seeing as it went to sealed bids.

However, I just wonder where people find these amounts of money to purchase or mortgage a house at that price.

We paid 160, just under twenty years ago, with inflation that amount is worth £288,000 now yet the house is worth somewhere between six and seven hundred grand, wages havent gone up by that percentage, can it really keep increasing at such a rate above inflation ?

[superkartracer]

okgo said:

J4CKO said:

I think things have officially gone mad, one went up over the road at 100/125 grand more than I would have expected, had several buyers in a week and they resorted to sealed bids above the asking price, so probably 150 grand more than I would have thought it was worth.

All very well, this middle class self congratulatory house price stuff but I have three kids that will need to get something in the next five or so years, a 3 bed family house shouldnt be that expensive.

So that is all based on 'your opinion' of what things are worth - means very little really.

A 3 bed house opposite me sold for over £850k the other month - a mate of mine bought almost the same property about 100m down the same road for £580k when I bought mine in July 2013 - I thought £580k was probably toppy, as above though, didn't really mean anything as since then every single house on the road has gone for 7 plus.

Edited by okgo on Thursday 16th June 09:11

It's madness indeed , next door has been placed on the market for 2.2million , he paid £50k about 40 years ago.

[p1stonhead]

superkartracer said:

okgo said:

J4CKO said:

I think things have officially gone mad, one went up over the road at 100/125 grand more than I would have expected, had several buyers in a week and they resorted to sealed bids above the asking price, so probably 150 grand more than I would have thought it was worth.

All very well, this middle class self congratulatory house price stuff but I have three kids that will need to get something in the next five or so years, a 3 bed family house shouldnt be that expensive.

So that is all based on 'your opinion' of what things are worth - means very little really.

A 3 bed house opposite me sold for over £850k the other month - a mate of mine bought almost the same property about 100m down the same road for £580k when I bought mine in July 2013 - I thought £580k was probably toppy, as above though, didn't really mean anything as since then every single house on the road has gone for 7 plus.

Edited by okgo on Thursday 16th June 09:11

It's madness indeed , next door has been placed on the market for 2.2million , he paid £50k about 40 years ago.

Isnt £50k, 40 years ago, still really really expensive? Average price was what £5-10k?

[ukbabz]

p1stonhead said:

Isnt £50k, 40 years ago, still really really expensive? Average price was what £5-10k?

£50k in 1976 would be worth £324,633.99 in 2015 according to http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/res...

[richardxjr]

Not really. 38 years ago family detached here (Sussex) £40-60 now 10-12x that.

[superkartracer]

About 400k , he flogged a few 100 acres to Felix Dennis a few years back for his tree projects for a fair few ££.

[J4CKO]

I guess it is widening the rich/poor gap, large inheritances when people die, gets passed down and gives a cash injection for the recipients to purchase, if your parents and grandparents dont own property or have a low value property then you dont get that potential for a lump sum.

Always been the cash but it seems to be getting worse, plus the middle classes are much better at avoiding IHT with trusts and passing stuff on.

[Randy Winkman]

J4CKO said:

I guess it is widening the rich/poor gap, large inheritances when people die, gets passed down and gives a cash injection for the recipients to purchase, if your parents and grandparents dont own property or have a low value property then you dont get that potential for a lump sum.

Always been the cash but it seems to be getting worse, plus the middle classes are much better at avoiding IHT with trusts and passing stuff on.

That's pretty much it as far as I can see. A wodge from the sale of a previous property that was bought for peanuts plus some more at incredibly low interest rates. Completely cuts out young people from less wealthy backgrounds though and is the worst thing about the UK (and lots of other countries) at present. And I speak as someone who hasn't done that badly at all from it.

[NRS]

Randy Winkman said:

J4CKO said:

I guess it is widening the rich/poor gap, large inheritances when people die, gets passed down and gives a cash injection for the recipients to purchase, if your parents and grandparents dont own property or have a low value property then you dont get that potential for a lump sum.

Always been the cash but it seems to be getting worse, plus the middle classes are much better at avoiding IHT with trusts and passing stuff on.

That's pretty much it as far as I can see. A wodge from the sale of a previous property that was bought for peanuts plus some more at incredibly low interest rates. Completely cuts out young people from less wealthy backgrounds though and is the worst thing about the UK (and lots of other countries) at present. And I speak as someone who hasn't done that badly at all from it.

Have to agree with this. I earn a very nice wage, but don't have any help from my parents for buying somewhere. The only way I managed to do it was I am fortunate to be able to get a good interest on a loan from work up to around £30 000. I was able to use that for the 15% deposit you need here. You obviously have to pay more, but if I didn't it would have taken much longer to save, and so I'd probably have had to pay at least £30-50 000 more in the time it would have taken to save the deposit. If you're working in a shop with a lower wage and no extra perks from work then there's no chance you're getting a house in a lot of places.

[red_slr]

Timmy40 said:

Hitch said:

sooperscoop said:

Friends in Shanghai have been going to "Buy in Manchester!' presentations for at least 3 years. The Chinese always flock to where the Chinese already are.

If the centre of Manchester can keep hold of it's prices, then the outskirts are very attractive, there's plenty of nice areas with 200k semis within 20 mins commute of the centre.

But these seminars are usually centred on some big infrastructure development which is claimed to be the catalyst for business investment and residential growth. What are they claiming is happening in Manchester?!

Loads of Chinese students. Interestingly there was a program on R4 recently about the booming China town in Manchester due to the huge numnber of Chinese students there.

I assume a wealthy Chinese family would be quite likely to decide to buy a flat their kid could use whilst at Uni then rent it out afterwards as an investment and handy way of having some money out of China ( just incase ).

I live on one of the nicer estates within a few miles of the city mostly 4/5 beds and in the last 3 years we have gone from no Chinese to probably around 10-12 houses. I would say there have been at least 3-4 this year alone.

[battered]

ukbabz said:

p1stonhead said:

Isnt £50k, 40 years ago, still really really expensive? Average price was what £5-10k?

£50k in 1976 would be worth £324,633.99 in 2015 according to http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/res...

Inflation is only half the tale. Borrowing 50k in 1976 would have cost a fortune because of heavy interest rates. You would have needed a hefty income to service that. My parents, both teachers, borrowed 14k in 79 and had 2 salaries. One full salary went on the mortgage.