Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Mrr T said:
Its all very complex look up Argentina 2002 default hold out bonds.
Edited by Borghetto on Tuesday 10th March 16:08
Art0ir said:
Andy Zarse said:
You haven't been following the recent fortunes of the Turkish lira recently have you! 
Incidentally, I recently saw an interesting statistic about the Irish (via David McWilliams IIRC, Artoir will probably remember?). Apparently, 30,000 people flew from Dublin to Greece in 2014. However, 90,000 flew to Turkey. I think that stat tells its own story about relative competitiveness, and probably everything we need to know about Greece's prospects if remaining within the EZ.
Incidentally, I recently saw an interesting statistic about the Irish (via David McWilliams IIRC, Artoir will probably remember?). Apparently, 30,000 people flew from Dublin to Greece in 2014. However, 90,000 flew to Turkey. I think that stat tells its own story about relative competitiveness, and probably everything we need to know about Greece's prospects if remaining within the EZ.
I had written a lengthy post yesterday but my browser crashed and I lost it. I'll attempt a brief summary;
On Saturday I was listening to Irish radio while out for a drive and they were reporting from the Sinn Fein annual conference. In attendance was Euclid Tsakalotos, Syriza's chief economist. I'll preface this by saying I find Syriza's/Sinn Fein's/Podemos' economic ideas questionable, but nonetheless like most Syriza higher ups, he talked a lot of sense.
He spoke of how the new government had gone into talks with the EU with high hopes of a solution to the crisis and to move things forward on a supranational level, economically and politically.
He told the crowd it was clear to see the current solution was no solution at all. Everyone knows it. There isn't a single indicator that even suggests it may be working. So he had arrived at the EU expecting to work on a new plan but instead was told "No. This is the way we are doing things and this is the way you will do things. End of discussion."
Sinn Fein are currently doing incredibly well in polls in the Republic. There's whispers of a SF government in 2016. The centenary of the Easter Rising. They are campaigning on an anti-austerity platform and after years of ineffective servitude (to the Troika, not the Irish people) on behalf of the main parties, they are doing very well. A parliamentary inquiry into the banking crisis has begun and it's only going to further damage the main opposition (who held power when it hit).
In the North, they are playing an incredibly shrewd game too. Adams has already said he wants Sinn Fein to be the biggest party, both North and South of the border. They continue to outmanoeuvre the Unionists at almost every turn (in fairness, they just set them up and watch them tear themselves apart - a gay couple is normally enough to do it).
Podemos and the 5 Star Movement got a mention at the conference too, by both SF people and Mr. Tsakalotos.
There seems to be a pretty fascinating shift happening here. While the fate of the recently inflated Right in Northern Europe remains to be seen, the Left seems to be on course to sweep across the Southern areas over the next few years.
Mrr T said:
Steffan said:
Greece are responsible for the the whole of the €280 Billion Greece borrowed. The EU could in theory take legal action to recover their money. Greece cannot walk away with no liability. However the EU cannot in reality sue for the debts in Greece. IMO. This is a complex matter and I cannot think of any European country who have become actually insolvent. Court of Hague possibly?
Even if the EU actually obtained a judgement the reality would be that actually collecting any of the debts would be virtually impossible. There coud possibly be action against the Foreign investments that Greece may own which could possibly be siezed with appropriate court action. Embassies and the like if there are any owned by Greece outside Greece itself. In reality I think the dire straits that Greece would have sunk to by then would be so dire that serious concern over the plight of the population of Greece would take precedent over the importance of attempting recovery of debt.
But in theory Greece woud be legally liable for the debt. In reality it would not be worth the candle. The EU taxpayers woud pick up this bill as well: (just for a change)!
You would not be able to make any claim against Greece because a country has sovereign immunity.Even if the EU actually obtained a judgement the reality would be that actually collecting any of the debts would be virtually impossible. There coud possibly be action against the Foreign investments that Greece may own which could possibly be siezed with appropriate court action. Embassies and the like if there are any owned by Greece outside Greece itself. In reality I think the dire straits that Greece would have sunk to by then would be so dire that serious concern over the plight of the population of Greece would take precedent over the importance of attempting recovery of debt.
But in theory Greece woud be legally liable for the debt. In reality it would not be worth the candle. The EU taxpayers woud pick up this bill as well: (just for a change)!
However, a complete refusal to repay anything is unusual since then Greece would never be able to re-enter the international bond market.
Normally at some time later Greece would offer some form of restructuring of the debt with I assume substantial write offs.
Its all very complex look up Argentina 2002 default hold out bonds.
One thing does seem certain in this to me. Whereeas years ago there were a significant number of Contributors who clearly genuinely felt that the EU was controlling this and that Greece could recover economically, given time, that approach has long been absent on this subject. T here are virtually no suggestions currently that Greece can possibly recover economic strength and therefore in reality Greece cannot in fact repay any of these debts and never will be able to reay those debts. Fundamental error by the EU which will cost the EU taxpayers dearly but may well have huge effect on the reputation and future of the EU politicians in consequence.
Greece would be totally unable to evenly pay the wages of government employees monthly without another sub from the EU being the latest indicator that the game is up. The preal robem with this now is therefore that the abject and total insolvency of Greece is totally apparent has got massively worse over time. Therefore there can be no agreed recovery. The EU can and are printing QE by the Billion to stave off the departure of Geece but by any realistic assessement Greece is never going to be in a position to repay any of these debts. Billions are bing thrown away by the EU but the EU cannot save Greece.
There have been several pages of excellent contributions over the last couple of days and the two above just struck me as worth comment. A mere fraction of the many postings! On the question of whether Greece does actually own the debt I do think it certainly does. However equally on the question of whether Greece will ever repay any of this debt I am very very doubtful it actually will. As has been said on here sovereign state insolvency is a very rare occurrence and although I do appreciate the arguments concerning the need to borrow in the markets once out of the Euro, can only be achieved if some form of debt repayments are agreed, I do think ths will be a minimalist gesture and a tiny fraction of the actual indebetedness of Greece.
I also believe that the depth of perception and understanding shown on here by many of the contributors demonstrates that this form of discussion offers far more than the pretty poor efforts acheived by the mainstream media. It will be Interesting to see how this will affect information dispersion long term I think. Does not say much for the mainstream media and a great deal for Pistonheads and the type of disussiontht this process now offers. I do very much appreciate the excellent postings from the many observers.
Art0ir said:
I had written a lengthy post yesterday but my browser crashed and I lost it. I'll attempt a brief summary;
On Saturday I was listening to Irish radio while out for a drive and they were reporting from the Sinn Fein annual conference. In attendance was Euclid Tsakalotos, Syriza's chief economist. I'll preface this by saying I find Syriza's/Sinn Fein's/Podemos' economic ideas questionable, but nonetheless like most Syriza higher ups, he talked a lot of sense.
He spoke of how the new government had gone into talks with the EU with high hopes of a solution to the crisis and to move things forward on a supranational level, economically and politically.
He told the crowd it was clear to see the current solution was no solution at all. Everyone knows it. There isn't a single indicator that even suggests it may be working. So he had arrived at the EU expecting to work on a new plan but instead was told "No. This is the way we are doing things and this is the way you will do things. End of discussion."
Sinn Fein are currently doing incredibly well in polls in the Republic. There's whispers of a SF government in 2016. The centenary of the Easter Rising. They are campaigning on an anti-austerity platform and after years of ineffective servitude (to the Troika, not the Irish people) on behalf of the main parties, they are doing very well. A parliamentary inquiry into the banking crisis has begun and it's only going to further damage the main opposition (who held power when it hit).
In the North, they are playing an incredibly shrewd game too. Adams has already said he wants Sinn Fein to be the biggest party, both North and South of the border. They continue to outmanoeuvre the Unionists at almost every turn (in fairness, they just set them up and watch them tear themselves apart - a gay couple is normally enough to do it).
Podemos and the 5 Star Movement got a mention at the conference too, by both SF people and Mr. Tsakalotos.
There seems to be a pretty fascinating shift happening here. While the fate of the recently inflated Right in Northern Europe remains to be seen, the Left seems to be on course to sweep across the Southern areas over the next few years.
Sinn Fein have an excellent narrative on Europe. Their position is this, and it's one I agree with; what was the point of the Easter Rising and all the Irish martyrs of 1921 dying in order to terminate one (British) tyranny over Irish lands, simply to swap it for another faceless hegemony based in Brussels?
It's a pretty logical position if you think about it, it plays well with many Irish and that's before it's dressed up as a modern extension of The Cause.
Naturally, this being SF, it comes packaged with all sorts of potty socialist economic policies, but it seems to me they are trying to play down their usual leftwing fruit-loopery and victimhood, in public at least.
Andy Zarse said:
I've done that "big post gone down the plug'ole" thing any number of times and it's soul destroying!
Sinn Fein have an excellent narrative on Europe. Their position is this, and it's one I agree with; what was the point of the Easter Rising and all the Irish martyrs of 1921 dying in order to terminate one (British) tyranny over Irish lands, simply to swap it for another faceless hegemony based in Brussels?
It's a pretty logical position if you think about it, it plays well with many Irish and that's before it's dressed up as a modern extension of The Cause.
Naturally, this being SF, it comes packaged with all sorts of potty socialist economic policies, but it seems to me they are trying to play down their usual leftwing fruit-loopery and victimhood, in public at least.
On the contrary Andy. The majority of the Southern electorate is very uncomfortable with SF's ties to the Provisionals, although as you said their European narrative is certainly a logical one.Sinn Fein have an excellent narrative on Europe. Their position is this, and it's one I agree with; what was the point of the Easter Rising and all the Irish martyrs of 1921 dying in order to terminate one (British) tyranny over Irish lands, simply to swap it for another faceless hegemony based in Brussels?
It's a pretty logical position if you think about it, it plays well with many Irish and that's before it's dressed up as a modern extension of The Cause.
Naturally, this being SF, it comes packaged with all sorts of potty socialist economic policies, but it seems to me they are trying to play down their usual leftwing fruit-loopery and victimhood, in public at least.
They have a huge amount of support from the States, including some very large and very powerful Irish Americans, but their recent economic rhetoric has lead to open criticism from them. I don't however think it will matter much. The numbers are heading the right way, particularly among the working class.
Blib said:
Andy Zarse said:
I've done that "big post gone down the plug'ole" thing any number of times and it's soul destroying!
Before you hit 'submit'......'right click'
Select all.
'right click'
copy.
Steffan said:
Blib said:
Andy Zarse said:
I've done that "big post gone down the plug'ole" thing any number of times and it's soul destroying!
Before you hit 'submit'......'right click'
Select all.
'right click'
copy.
...been SO grateful on a number of occasions.
London424 said:
Only going one way IMO. Downward. DJRC pointed out some of the desperate problems of the French economy on here a while ago and has been proved absolutely correct in his statement that "France was toast" . France is never going to recover and the incompetent, philandering, two faced, self serving socialist Hollande is doing his very best to achieve this as quickly as possible. He will no coubt, succeed France is a big country and politically very powerful in the EU. But the French economy is falling apart.
Worthwhile making the point that when the s
t hits the fan the EU taxpayers will be called upon to sort this mess out too. Not going to end well is it! In fact if you look at the list of failing and insolvency bound states in Europe all the Southern states around the Meditaerranean are heading this way. No doubt blandishments from EU politicians will keep the wheels turning and the position will get worse and worse steadily, with greater and greater losses accumulating for the EU taxpayers to pick up. Dreadful business really. Legalised robbery. But the EU politicians are doing exceptionally well out of this and that really is their game. Devil take the hindmost I fear. Being an EU taxpayer in the solvent EU states is definitely going to become a pretty hazardous position. Maybe now is the time for UK Plc to adopt the Euro & save it from its decline. We can be the Knights in shining armour , join forces with Germany for once and excerpt real influence & save it from itself. We would then gain a place at the top table without the preceding pain endured by the other competents...
Jimboka said:
Maybe now is the time for UK Plc to adopt the Euro & save it from its decline. We can be the Knights in shining armour , join forces with Germany for once and excerpt real influence & save it from itself. We would then gain a place at the top table without the preceding pain endured by the other competents...
London424 said:
because they are 'good Europeans' while we are only good to fund the doomed project..Steffan said:
Only going one way IMO. Downward.
DJRC pointed out some of the desperate problems of the French economy on here a while ago and has been proved absolutely correct in his statement that "France was toast" . France is never going to recover and the incompetent, philandering, two faced, self serving socialist Hollande is doing his very best to achieve this as quickly as possible. He will no coubt, succeed France is a big country and politically very powerful in the EU. But the French economy is falling apart.
Worthwhile making the point that when the st hits the fan the EU taxpayers will be called upon to sort this mess out too. Not going to end well is it! In fact if you look at the list of failing and insolvency bound states in Europe all the Southern states around the Meditaerranean are heading this way. No doubt blandishments from EU politicians will keep the wheels turning and the position will get worse and worse steadily, with greater and greater losses accumulating for the EU taxpayers to pick up. Dreadful business really. Legalised robbery. But the EU politicians are doing exceptionally well out of this and that really is their game. Devil take the hindmost I fear. Being an EU taxpayer in the solvent EU states is definitely going to become a pretty hazardous position.
Confidence in EZ going one way....... and we know what means.DJRC pointed out some of the desperate problems of the French economy on here a while ago and has been proved absolutely correct in his statement that "France was toast" . France is never going to recover and the incompetent, philandering, two faced, self serving socialist Hollande is doing his very best to achieve this as quickly as possible. He will no coubt, succeed France is a big country and politically very powerful in the EU. But the French economy is falling apart.
Worthwhile making the point that when the s
t hits the fan the EU taxpayers will be called upon to sort this mess out too. Not going to end well is it! In fact if you look at the list of failing and insolvency bound states in Europe all the Southern states around the Meditaerranean are heading this way. No doubt blandishments from EU politicians will keep the wheels turning and the position will get worse and worse steadily, with greater and greater losses accumulating for the EU taxpayers to pick up. Dreadful business really. Legalised robbery. But the EU politicians are doing exceptionally well out of this and that really is their game. Devil take the hindmost I fear. Being an EU taxpayer in the solvent EU states is definitely going to become a pretty hazardous position. Jimboka said:
Agreement or sarcasm
The euro concept is broken now. It is just a matter of time unless actual real money can be injected. Not debt, but actual real money. Who has some?The UK has only the former to offer.
Using debt in a deflating global economy to fix the issue beggars belief.
Now if they spent €1Tn on infrastructure and jobs for people Europe wide, fine, it's debt with an asset in return and generates real growth. It might work, and if it doesn't we have something to show our kids for the cost!
But debt to pay off debt is just mental. Who wants us to join in with a currency doomed to fail inevitably?
Joining that r
Latest postings on this problem on the BBC make quite a good fist of explaining some of the economic reassures to are casing the Euro to sink steadlily
see: http://www.bbc.com/news/31821742
Not from Robert Peston for a change which will please many on here!.
Does make an interesting if necessariy somewhat complex article I think.
see: http://www.bbc.com/news/31821742
Not from Robert Peston for a change which will please many on here!
. Does make an interesting if necessariy somewhat complex article I think.
Mr Whippy said:
The euro concept is broken now. It is just a matter of time unless actual real money can be injected. Not debt, but actual real money. Who has some?
The UK has only the former to offer.
Using debt in a deflating global economy to fix the issue beggars belief.
Now if they spent €1Tn on infrastructure and jobs for people Europe wide, fine, it's debt with an asset in return and generates real growth. It might work, and if it doesn't we have something to show our kids for the cost!
But debt to pay off debt is just mental. Who wants us to join in with a currency doomed to fail inevitably?
Joining that r
We all know it will still exist in 1/5/10 years don't we ...The UK has only the former to offer.
Using debt in a deflating global economy to fix the issue beggars belief.
Now if they spent €1Tn on infrastructure and jobs for people Europe wide, fine, it's debt with an asset in return and generates real growth. It might work, and if it doesn't we have something to show our kids for the cost!
But debt to pay off debt is just mental. Who wants us to join in with a currency doomed to fail inevitably?
Joining that r
Steffan said:
Latest postings on this problem on the BBC make quite a good fist of explaining some of the economic reassures to are casing the Euro to sink steadlily
see: http://www.bbc.com/news/31821742
Not from Robert Peston for a change which will please many on here!.
Does make an interesting if necessariy somewhat complex article I think.
Interesting caption on the photo in that story, "Some experts predict the euro could soon hit parity with sterling". I hope not!see: http://www.bbc.com/news/31821742
Not from Robert Peston for a change which will please many on here!
. Does make an interesting if necessariy somewhat complex article I think.
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