Brexit Poll 1/2/16

[irocfan]

limpsfield said:

I think it's comments like this that throw some light on why the results from opinion polls you see on various web forums don't reflect reality. I can see both sides of the aguement but too many of those to want to leave resort to the more personal approach which will just turn off a load of people from participating in a debate, leaving just the vociferous minority.

to be honest I thought it was more the stay voters who tend to say (in effect) "...if you vote to leave, your [sic] a ficko..." as evidenced just a few posts up. Be that as it may the real PiTA is the sheer mendacity and paucity of ideas from both sides. A pox on all their houses

[Funkycoldribena]

limpsfield said:

I think it's comments like this that throw some light on why the results from opinion polls you see on various web forums don't reflect reality. I can see both sides of the aguement but too many of those who want to leave resort to the more personal dig approach, which will just turn off a load of people from participating in a debate, leaving just the vociferous minority.

Maybe it was a bit too vociferous, but its just so alien to my way of thinking.
I know its not greatly comparable but if I ran a company like the eu runs its affairs I'd be locked up and bankrupt within a few months, Ratner lost it all for far less! I think we've lost our way massively and value money far more than sovereignty nowadays, some might say so what,but once its gone,its gone.

[Funkycoldribena]

irocfan said:

A pox on all their houses

Had it when I was six so it won't work.

[PRTVR]

RYH64E said:

Funkycoldribena said:

I don't think it is.
You've got to be pretty dumb to vote for an institution that wastes millions and ignores democracy.How the hell anyone with an ounce of brainpower would want more of it is bewildering.

Because for many of us it's a more complex argument than that, there are pros and cons to eu membership and for me at least the economic factors are more important than any concerns I may have about sovereignty, immigration and waste. I'm not at all reassured by the platitudes offered by the leave side, I'll vote for the safe option of remain.

The problem is the economic factors are not set in stone but are temporary, if immigration keeps on at the present level massive cost are going to be incurred, who is going to pay for it ? Houses will have to be built along with schools hospitals and the whole infrastructure, we have been told that immigration is a net benifit to the UK but we are having high immigration without increasing tax returns, how will the infrastructure that is needed be paid for ? There is no quick fix if we stay we are locked into free movement of people and will not be able to control it, let alone forecast the requirements, this in my opinion is suicidal for the UK.

Met my first remainer yesterday a economics student, oh to be young and see the world through rose tinted spectacles and just be prepared to ignore the negatives.

[RYH64E]

PRTVR said:

The problem is the economic factors are not set in stone but are temporary, if immigration keeps on at the present level massive cost are going to be incurred, who is going to pay for it ? Houses will have to be built along with schools hospitals and the whole infrastructure, we have been told that immigration is a net benifit to the UK but we are having high immigration without increasing tax returns, how will the infrastructure that is needed be paid for ? There is no quick fix if we stay we are locked into free movement of people and will not be able to control it, let alone forecast the requirements, this in my opinion is suicidal for the UK.

Met my first remainer yesterday a economics student, oh to be young and see the world through rose tinted spectacles and just be prepared to ignore the negatives.

Leave appear to be selling a future where we will keep all of the benefits of membership with none of the costs, because they need us more than we need them, unfortunately the world doesn't work that way. Apparently we'll keep unrestricted access to the EU market but won't have to accept free movement of people, or go for the WTO option (nobody seems sure one way or another), illegal immigration will be a thing of the past because we'll get control of our borders (even though we've never signed up to Schengen), there'll be a special deal so that international financial institutions won't lose their passporting rights and the City will be fine, or if they do lose them they'll find a way round it, and exporters won't be affected either. I'm not convinced, nor am I convinced that things are so bad currently.

We're doing ok within the EU, doing well even, we're not Greece. Most of the immigrants are here to work (and from personal experience they make better employees than our home grown hillbillies), the economy is growing, unemployment is falling, things are good. I don't recognise the bleak and depressing picture painted by the leavers.

[voyds9]

The major problem is where we will be in 5+ years time.

Both camps have fixed ideas.

Out - everybody employed, no immigrants, economy booming

In - everything we want will come miraculously to pass also nothing will change, economy booming.


The truth is, it's a leap of faith, the Eurozone will continue to change and we have little control, or on an exit everything is up for grabs.

No-one knows what will happen on either result and relying on an expert is difficult as they all have or are perceived to have agendas.

[PRTVR]

RYH64E said:

PRTVR said:

The problem is the economic factors are not set in stone but are temporary, if immigration keeps on at the present level massive cost are going to be incurred, who is going to pay for it ? Houses will have to be built along with schools hospitals and the whole infrastructure, we have been told that immigration is a net benifit to the UK but we are having high immigration without increasing tax returns, how will the infrastructure that is needed be paid for ? There is no quick fix if we stay we are locked into free movement of people and will not be able to control it, let alone forecast the requirements, this in my opinion is suicidal for the UK.

Met my first remainer yesterday a economics student, oh to be young and see the world through rose tinted spectacles and just be prepared to ignore the negatives.

Leave appear to be selling a future where we will keep all of the benefits of membership with none of the costs, because they need us more than we need them, unfortunately the world doesn't work that way. Apparently we'll keep unrestricted access to the EU market but won't have to accept free movement of people, or go for the WTO option (nobody seems sure one way or another), illegal immigration will be a thing of the past because we'll get control of our borders (even though we've never signed up to Schengen), there'll be a special deal so that international financial institutions won't lose their passporting rights and the City will be fine, or if they do lose them they'll find a way round it, and exporters won't be affected either. I'm not convinced, nor am I convinced that things are so bad currently.

We're doing ok within the EU, doing well even, we're not Greece. Most of the immigrants are here to work (and from personal experience they make better employees than our home grown hillbillies), the economy is growing, unemployment is falling, things are good. I don't recognise the bleak and depressing picture painted by the leavers.

Great if it works for you, but are you not the same as leavers in ignoring problems by remaining? Do you know how things will pan out over the next few years if we remain. We are doing OK within the EU, but could we do better outside, most of the EU is in trouble is it not a possibility that we end up going the same way or do we just look at things in the short term.

[powerstroke]

Mario149 said:

Funkycoldribena said:

Shows you can be very bright in one area of life but very dim in others.

Not really, no. We're not talking nerdy professors here who never step outside the library, we're by and large talking about professional people who are well educated and have been successful in life.

It's not saying there aren't valid arguments for the leave side, but to assume that on average the smartest people in the country are all making the same wrong decision is a bit daft.

Most are just good at remembering what some other idiot has told them and putting it on a exam paper , some of the daftest people I've ever met had a degree .... clever on paper but no common sense... so I have no difficulty in seeing why they would drink in the official line on the EU ...

[///ajd]

There are some very good posts above.

Many times it is implied that remainers are ignoring the failings of the EU. That is not the case and is well explained above.

It is just that the failings of the EU are recognised, assessed and weighed up against the alternatives - and on balance some take the perfectly rationale view that being IN is more likely to be the best option for the UK despite the failings.

Having this view does NOT mean they are not clever enough to rationally observe the many shortfalls of the EU.

[gothatway]

///ajd said:

It is just that the failings of the EU are recognised, assessed and weighed up against the alternatives - and on balance some take the perfectly rationale view that being IN is more likely to be the best option for the UK despite the failings.

Having this view does NOT mean they are not clever enough to rationally observe the many shortfalls of the EU.

I think it depends on your time-frame - in the short term, I suspect that we might well be better off in rather than out. But in the longer term, and given the attitude of the Commission, I do not believe that we will succeed in any attempts to address those shortfalls. I fear that we will be dragged down by the rest of the EU, that we will not be allowed to veto the accession of new countries, and that the longer it goes on, the more difficult it will become to leave.

On the other hand, if we were to succeed in leaving then together with the threat of others joining us over the next few years, the EU might be persuaded to undertake radical reform, back towards a trading bloc, which we would then be able to join. If not, then I have enough confidence to believe that we will, in the longer term, be a more prosperous, and fairer/more democratic state than the EU.

[Funkycoldribena]

Amazing how quickly things change...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brit...

[FiF]

powerstroke said:

Mario149 said:

Funkycoldribena said:

Shows you can be very bright in one area of life but very dim in others.

Not really, no. We're not talking nerdy professors here who never step outside the library, we're by and large talking about professional people who are well educated and have been successful in life.

It's not saying there aren't valid arguments for the leave side, but to assume that on average the smartest people in the country are all making the same wrong decision is a bit daft.

Most are just good at remembering what some other idiot has told them and putting it on a exam paper , some of the daftest people I've ever met had a degree .... clever on paper but no common sense... so I have no difficulty in seeing why they would drink in the official line on the EU ...

I find it quite amusing that, by some thought process, it's impossible to be a well educated professional person, that having been successful in real life cannot now be a nerdy professor who, not only has no fear of what exit from the EU would bring, but positively approves of Brexit.

[///ajd]

FiF said:

powerstroke said:

Mario149 said:

Funkycoldribena said:

Shows you can be very bright in one area of life but very dim in others.

Not really, no. We're not talking nerdy professors here who never step outside the library, we're by and large talking about professional people who are well educated and have been successful in life.

It's not saying there aren't valid arguments for the leave side, but to assume that on average the smartest people in the country are all making the same wrong decision is a bit daft.

Most are just good at remembering what some other idiot has told them and putting it on a exam paper , some of the daftest people I've ever met had a degree .... clever on paper but no common sense... so I have no difficulty in seeing why they would drink in the official line on the EU ...

I find it quite amusing that, by some thought process, it's impossible to be a well educated professional person, that having been successful in real life cannot now be a nerdy professor who, not only has no fear of what exit from the EU would bring, but positively approves of Brexit.

If you are referring to Minford, his views have been dissected here for the implications of his ideas, not his standing as a professor. The ball has very firmly been played.

Most brexiters see to agree that having tariffs apply to our exports into the EU whilst we apply none to imports from anywhere in the world, including the EU, and abide by WTO rules, is not a very good idea as it would be economically disadvantageous to us. Yet this is what Minford proposes. Indeed the recent panic from a brexiter about 25% tariffs on IT (later questioned) showed very clearly how this principle (even if not applied to IT) could be a very real threat to our industry. IT tariffs may well be unclear, but they are all too clear in other sectors - e.g. automotive - as Minford willingly admits when he talks of "running it down".

Therefore may brexiters don't like the consequences of the ideas of the lead voteleave economist. This is nothing to do with his standing as a professor.

[KrissKross]

///ajd said:

There are some very good posts above.

Many times it is implied that remainers are ignoring the failings of the EU. That is not the case and is well explained above.

It is just that the failings of the EU are recognised, assessed and weighed up against the alternatives - and on balance some take the perfectly rationale view that being IN is more likely to be the best option for the UK despite the failings.

Having this view does NOT mean they are not clever enough to rationally observe the many shortfalls of the EU.

Which bits of the EU are worth keeping?

[Boosted LS1]

KrissKross said:

///ajd said:

There are some very good posts above.

Many times it is implied that remainers are ignoring the failings of the EU. That is not the case and is well explained above.

It is just that the failings of the EU are recognised, assessed and weighed up against the alternatives - and on balance some take the perfectly rationale view that being IN is more likely to be the best option for the UK despite the failings.

Having this view does NOT mean they are not clever enough to rationally observe the many shortfalls of the EU.

Which bits of the EU are worth keeping?

Yes, which bits? One of the reasons I'm voting out is because I never hear of the great events waiting for us if we remain. I'm happy that if we leave we'll prosper and be independant but I can't see positives to remain on a sinking ship called the eu.

[FiF]

///ajd said:

If you are referring to Minford, his views have been dissected here for the implications of his ideas, not his standing as a professor. The ball has very firmly been played.

Most brexiters see to agree that having tariffs apply to our exports into the EU whilst we apply none to imports from anywhere in the world, including the EU, and abide by WTO rules, is not a very good idea as it would be economically disadvantageous to us. Yet this is what Minford proposes. Indeed the recent panic from a brexiter about 25% tariffs on IT (later questioned) showed very clearly how this principle (even if not applied to IT) could be a very real threat to our industry. IT tariffs may well be unclear, but they are all too clear in other sectors - e.g. automotive - as Minford willingly admits when he talks of "running it down".

Therefore may brexiters don't like the consequences of the ideas of the lead voteleave economist. This is nothing to do with his standing as a professor.

Nope, not referring to Minford, much closer to home, literally in my case.

As for Minford, seeing as you've brought him up again, (sigh) and I'll throw Ruth Lea under the bus too, most of what their beer mat maths says is based on completely erroneous assumptions around a Brexit scenario that is so unrealistic it won't happen. It just won't happen. They are typical of economists who think it's all about trade, and it really isn't.

[///ajd]

FiF said:

///ajd said:

If you are referring to Minford, his views have been dissected here for the implications of his ideas, not his standing as a professor. The ball has very firmly been played.

Most brexiters see to agree that having tariffs apply to our exports into the EU whilst we apply none to imports from anywhere in the world, including the EU, and abide by WTO rules, is not a very good idea as it would be economically disadvantageous to us. Yet this is what Minford proposes. Indeed the recent panic from a brexiter about 25% tariffs on IT (later questioned) showed very clearly how this principle (even if not applied to IT) could be a very real threat to our industry. IT tariffs may well be unclear, but they are all too clear in other sectors - e.g. automotive - as Minford willingly admits when he talks of "running it down".

Therefore may brexiters don't like the consequences of the ideas of the lead voteleave economist. This is nothing to do with his standing as a professor.

Nope, not referring to Minford, much closer to home, literally in my case.

As for Minford, seeing as you've brought him up again, (sigh) and I'll throw Ruth Lea under the bus too, most of what their beer mat maths says is based on completely erroneous assumptions around a Brexit scenario that is so unrealistic it won't happen. It just won't happen. They are typical of economists who think it's all about trade, and it really isn't.

Who is this new professor then, are his views useful in supporting the leave case?

Ruth Lea also makes an interesting contradiction in the link you provided.

- she firstly talks about how uk can't do trade deals outside the EU straight jacket, have to do what all 28 want etc. hence we must leave
- she then embraces WTO rules, but accepts, like Minford, we would be subject to the EU common external tariff. She plays on the 1% average (i.e. nothing to see here, its peanuts etc.) but does concede some are higher - notably cars at 10%. So again, like Minford she's saying UK cars get 10% slapped on when they go to the EU, but the reverse is not necessarily the case. Instant punative gradient against our car industry, and a big one.
- the best bit however is when she implies "don't worry about e.g. german exports, a nod to cars, we'll just have a quick bilateral with them once we are out if the EU. Errrr, see her first point! Germany, in the EU, are in her famous EU straightjacket and unable to do bilaterals, surely?

Cake and eat it? It just does not hang together.

PS the select committee with tylie heard that the likely cet external tariiff value would significantly outstrip our payments to the EU.

[loafer123]

So you are saying that the EU external tariff on cars is 10%, but because the UK doesn't have its own external tariff at the moment, we wouldn't have one in return?

Firstly, what a load of tenuous rubbish. We would apply, under continuity rules, the same tariffs as now until a separate agreement was brought in.

Secondly, we could very quickly apply whatever tariffs we want if people apply punitive tariffs against us. Of course, this triggers a trade war which, in the case of Germany, would be more painful for them than us and wouldn't happen.

[anonymous-user]

Whenever this topic comes up at my work, people wanting to remain usually say "it's better the devil you know" or similar, they tend not to have not looked into it too much or are basing their views on all the business leaders on the news saying "x many jobs might be lost" all the time.

It's not a surprising position to take. If all those people running businesses say it will be bad, why assume they are wrong? Surely all these business leaders know more than Boris with his funny hair,

I think though most business are voting for stability. They like everyone else, doesn't really know what will happen either way but they think it will be less change and more stability by remaining. I can see their viewpoint really. If you're not that bothered or interested, you'd either not vote or vote to remain,

But Britain is a great country with a huge economy, people will still want to trade with us after Brexit. I feel like we are in a crap marriage and being told 'sure the marriage is crap but you might not find anyone else if you bugger off' I know some people live like that but it seems a bit narrow minded.

I don't like the idea of being ncreasingly run by unelected eurocrats instead of an elected government. It's not a vote against Europeans or Europe itself, just about being in control of our own country again.

As frequently said. If we weren't in Europe today, there's no way we'd look at it and say "hey that looks good, we should join it"

Edited by el stovey on Sunday 22 May 13:37

[turbobloke]

///ajd said:

Who is this new professor then, are his views useful in supporting the leave case?