Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

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Discussion

arguti

1,776 posts

187 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
We have pontificating as to when the crunch will hit as it were.

Given how close to the wire things have been running for Greece in terms of scrabbling for cash to make up the monthly repayments, I think June 2016 may be a step too far for them.

this chart was from one of the Telegraph articles and shows the payments due next month


Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

248 months

Digga

40,421 posts

284 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
Thanks. Digga snr is ex-JCB management and had filled me in on that.

It is very useful for CMD's negotiations to have a voice from big business supporting the possibility of leaving the EU. I think it fairly and squarely shuts up the voices that think the options a purely black and white; in EU good for business; of of EU bad.

Timmy40

12,915 posts

199 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Digga said:
Andy Zarse said:
Thanks. Digga snr is ex-JCB management and had filled me in on that.

It is very useful for CMD's negotiations to have a voice from big business supporting the possibility of leaving the EU. I think it fairly and squarely shuts up the voices that think the options a purely black and white; in EU good for business; of of EU bad.
What irritates me about the 'pro EU' camp is that they belittle the UK constantly "we're just a small island" etc etc, as pointed out we are either the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. We are a nuclear power, we hold a membership of the G8. We have fantastic global connections because in the very recent past we ran the largest empire the world has ever seen, much of it covering areas that are now growing very fast.

And, I will need to shout this......if we leave the EU....


DONT FORGET WE WILL STILL LEAD AND BE AT THE CORE OF THE COMMON WEALTH WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TOTALLY FORGOTTEN BY EVERYONE. and has a hell of a lot more people, resources, growth, dynamism than a stale old Europe run by the French and Germans.

fido

16,849 posts

256 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Timmy40 said:
DONT FORGET WE WILL STILL LEAD AND BE AT THE CORE OF THE COMMON WEALTH WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TOTALLY FORGOTTEN BY EVERYONE. and has a hell of a lot more people, resources, growth, dynamism than a stale old Europe run by the French and Germans.
Not to mention the other European countries outside the EU - Switzerland and Norway. Okay, they're not as big as the UK - but combined with the UK would be able to make the case for a free-trade area but not political union.

Mr Whippy

29,109 posts

242 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
fido said:
Timmy40 said:
DONT FORGET WE WILL STILL LEAD AND BE AT THE CORE OF THE COMMON WEALTH WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TOTALLY FORGOTTEN BY EVERYONE. and has a hell of a lot more people, resources, growth, dynamism than a stale old Europe run by the French and Germans.
Not to mention the other European countries outside the EU - Switzerland and Norway. Okay, they're not as big as the UK - but combined with the UK would be able to make the case for a free-trade area but not political union.
Exactly.

I can't see any positives for being in the EU at all.

All it offers is existing policies that can be re-arranged outside a political union, and a lot of lost control making our politicians just an expensive talking shop waste of GDP, and adds further costs on top.


The only people who want it are the very politicians who make a load of £££ from being in it.

Dave

mjb1

2,556 posts

160 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Can kicked a bit further down the road by the looks of it: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11612...

Juncker has a gravy train to protect...

Steffan

10,362 posts

229 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
fido said:
Timmy40 said:
DONT FORGET WE WILL STILL LEAD AND BE AT THE CORE OF THE COMMON WEALTH WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TOTALLY FORGOTTEN BY EVERYONE. and has a hell of a lot more people, resources, growth, dynamism than a stale old Europe run by the French and Germans.
Not to mention the other European countries outside the EU - Switzerland and Norway. Okay, they're not as big as the UK - but combined with the UK would be able to make the case for a free-trade area but not political union.
Exactly.

I can't see any positives for being in the EU at all.

All it offers is existing policies that can be re-arranged outside a political union, and a lot of lost control making our politicians just an expensive talking shop waste of GDP, and adds further costs on top.


The only people who want it are the very politicians who make a load of £££ from being in it.

Dave
Unfortunately for the EU and the EU politicians and bureaucrats unless a "Solution" is found to this pressing problem the wheels will come off their gravy train and that would never do. So Junckers and the EU negotiators are looking for ways to push this on a little further unsurprisingly and have come up with some very different proposals.

Paraphrasing their ornate language somewhat, Junckers is suggesting that all the problems can be solved by renegotiating a better deal for Greece by changing the goalposts:

see:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11612...

And the EU is suggesting that there can be a totally unmerited extension for Greece to be allowed more time to come up with a brilliant plan that actually at least has the some slight chance that it might actually at least appear to work.

see:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32783403

The EU are visibly desperate to avoid the first Domino state failing because I suspect the EU are beginning to realise all too well, the extensive difficulties that event will force upon the EU itself. Once their utter incompetence becomes public knowledge. Therefore one way or another the EU is going to try and pretend that the desperate financial circumstances that are so evident in the Greek economy can be massaged away with some miracle cream. In reality it cannot and will not!

Personally I think that tells us much, much more about the self serving nature and approach of the EU politicians who to a man (or woman!) are concerned only that the gravy train continues and that they collect the megabucks that they are seeking. In reality there is not one shred of evidence that there is the slightest sign of the slightest recovery in the Greek economy. In reality the Goose of Greece is well and truly overcooked and way beyond recovery.

But the EU are obviously concerned with only the continuance of their Gravy Train and that requirement is blinding the EU to the reality of the inevtable cosequences that this kind, of utterly unsupportable stupidity must inevtably bring. Greece is not going to recover and Syriza is following policies that will ensure that Greece does not recover. But the EU are concerned only with buying time and therefore pushing this on is their only concern.

Given the reality of the EU referendum that has been proposed by David Cameron and promised before the end of 2017 it seens to me that there are a number of reality hoops through which the EU is judst not going to successfully jump coming up. Amazingy enough that promise was underlined and adopted and seconded recently by Andy Burnham, currently hot on the career trail as the next leader of Labour, as a good idea. Andy Burnham has suggested a Referendum in 2016 would be a lot better.

Interesting to see how the shysters of Labour can learn new tricks when needed. I rather suspect the 4 million votes for UKIP that returned only one MP has not passed unnoticed at Westminster. Good. Seriously concerned, died in the wool socialists, staggering from the worst defeat for Labour for many decades, have underlined the need for a fundamental rethink currently. Much change coming (at least in appearance) for UK politics, within the Labour party, I think.

The politics of the last few years in the UK have resulted in massive unrequieted hopes and aspirations of the UK electorate, being cheerfully ignored. Hence the growth of UKIP. For all his faults Farage has at least listened. Millions of Britsh voters have been unable to find a politician who would listen to their many and varied concerns and priorities. Hence the millions of votes.

Thankfully the UK returned a majority Conservative government to power, promising to offer a Referendum in the UK as a fundamental base for their return. That has now begun, and therefore I think the EU really does have reality biting at their coattails? An awful lot of anti EU feeling being expressed currently by a great many concerned individuals across Europe, who can see the unadmitted problems. In consequence there are going to be a number of hoops that are going to really test the ability of the EU to actually present a truly practical and genuine solution to any of their undisclosed problems.

The EU may keep this going by throwing yet more Billions of Euros away in keeping an insolvent state within the EU. But not for long. The EU never has had and the EU never will have any solution for allowing Greece to fiddle its way within the EU. In consequence Greece will default. Then there will be deeply serious trouble for the EU.

Gargamel

15,029 posts

262 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
You make an interesting point about the shift in politics, though whilst somewhat irrelevant to thread, it will be fascinating to see how the referendum plays out.

You would think on the face of it, that everyone who voted UKIP will vote to come out of the EU. I would venture that about a quarter of the Conservative vote would be thinking similar things about voting out.

That would give the IN vote needing to find around 6 - 8 million votes.

Of course long way and many arguments to be had. But I would suggest the last thing the EU will won't in the run up to that vote will be a bankrupt country OR a whip round involving the UK to help a bankrupt country.

Decent amount of Eurocrats would be delighted to see the back of Perfidious Albion in any case


GlenMH

5,215 posts

244 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
Decent amount of Eurocrats would be delighted to see the back of Perfidious Albion in any case
Although perhaps not the £55M/day (ISTR)that we pump in to the system?

Steffan

10,362 posts

229 months

Monday 18th May 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
You make an interesting point about the shift in politics, though whilst somewhat irrelevant to thread, it will be fascinating to see how the referendum plays out.

You would think on the face of it, that everyone who voted UKIP will vote to come out of the EU. I would venture that about a quarter of the Conservative vote would be thinking similar things about voting out.

That would give the IN vote needing to find around 6 - 8 million votes.

Of course long way and many arguments to be had. But I would suggest the last thing the EU will won't in the run up to that vote will be a bankrupt country OR a whip round involving the UK to help a bankrupt country.

Decent amount of Eurocrats would be delighted to see the back of Perfidious Albion in any case
I do think that the UKIP 4 million votes form a massive sign of the underlying frustration and lack of being heard there has been within UK Politics for many years that the last election really highlighted. There are literally millions of voters who do not support either the current Labour party or the current Conservative party policies for the UK. If UKIP can pull together (doubtful) and really harness that support then I do think a major third party has arrived.

The Liberals seem to me to be steadily travelling into oblivion, which given the ineptitude of N Clegg seems entirely appropriate to me. The Labour party has major problems now that the reality of just how appallingly badly they actually fared in the polls, demonstrates so clearly. Not going to return to power for some years, if ever. Given the union leverage it seems very likely another union preferred candidate will ensure that crowd remain on a downwards spiral.

Quite how anyone ever though a backstabber of the order of Ed Milliband, totally unsuited to ever being effective in the media or on television, and with his utter inability to remain well presented before the media, or even remember the correct answers to questions at all, could actually be electorally successful was always totally beyond me. As Boris Johnson actually said to Milliband on TV "My concern is to ensure that you do not do to the country what you did to our brother" was aways the way to expose Milliband for the shyte he is. Clever man Boris Johnson MP. Already back in the cabinet. Next primeminister I would think.

Leaving politics for a while to return to the subject matter of this thread the dichotomy that is so apparent in the totally different approaches being considered by the EU, currently, in their utter desperation to keep the gravy train on the rails, just as long as they can, is just so revealing. The EU are wholly unconcerned with the ludicrous losses that are being stacked up steadily keeping Greece afloat. The EU just want the gravy train to contine for all the beneficiaries within the EU bureaucracy itself. There is no thought for the reality of the inevitable collapse that must eventually come to Greece. Because the individuals running the EU are making huge personal gains from the continuance.

The position now of Greece in this is utterly untenable. The EU solution is to pretend all is well and keep taking the lovely money that the Bureacrats get from this continuing. Pure blind, selfish greed. Appalling to see and inevitably there will be a default in the end. Matter of time. Lot of new hurdles coming up for the EU. Given their inability to actually deal with this problem properly over the last five years and to allow the fiddling that got Greece into this nonsense in the first place default is inevitable.

gruffalo

7,549 posts

227 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
Just heard the woman who presents the business side of things on BBC Breakfast say that a deal to end the Greek money problems is expected within the weeklaughlaughlaugh

Gargamel

15,029 posts

262 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all

But it is hilarious to watch as a voyeuristic sociopath (though I think some of the Greek people are being abused beyond what is ever acceptable)

The new depths of insanity required to keep the show on the road.

Lend us Money - here is 350bn
Pretend our interest rate risk is the same as German - OK
Support our Banking Liquidity to the tune of 80bn - no problem
Accept that our three month T bills are effectively us printing our own cash - sure
Allow us to repay IMF loans, using IMF emergency funding - Yep
We need to raise pension repayments and re hire 600 cleaners - off you go
We made a current account surplus last year, by not paying any suppliers and by rolling the wage bill back a month, ok if we stop doing that and fall back into deficit ?
Our citizens would prefer to send 20bn of private wealth abroad - well who can blame them
We don't want to pay any tax either - We don't mind

Barking the lot of them.

Now we hear that an emergency of loan of 5bn is heading there way to cover the summer. Mmm how lovely, I fully expect Greece to rent somewhere nice in the South of France for the season.






Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

248 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
For a long time I've been baffled by these 600 cleaners. Just how big is it, and how filthy does it get, that it needs 600 cleaners, plus the ones they didn't sack?

911Gary

4,162 posts

202 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
GlenMH said:
Although perhaps not the £55M/day (ISTR)that we pump in to the system?
Well that now apparently is up for adjustment,based on how well our economy grows so in a nutshell the more we earn the more we pay,I cant help but think (perhaps wrongly) that should Brown and Balls have suceeded in bankrupting our fair Isles we would not be benifiting from the same tranches of bailout!
And would have been alowed to crash and burn,it really scares me looking back how close we were.

911Gary

4,162 posts

202 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
But it is hilarious to watch as a voyeuristic sociopath (though I think some of the Greek people are being abused beyond what is ever acceptable)

The new depths of insanity required to keep the show on the road.

Lend us Money - here is 350bn
Pretend our interest rate risk is the same as German - OK
Support our Banking Liquidity to the tune of 80bn - no problem
Accept that our three month T bills are effectively us printing our own cash - sure
Allow us to repay IMF loans, using IMF emergency funding - Yep
We need to raise pension repayments and re hire 600 cleaners - off you go
We made a current account surplus last year, by not paying any suppliers and by rolling the wage bill back a month, ok if we stop doing that and fall back into deficit ?
Our citizens would prefer to send 20bn of private wealth abroad - well who can blame them
We don't want to pay any tax either - We don't mind

Barking the lot of them.

Now we hear that an emergency of loan of 5bn is heading there way to cover the summer. Mmm how lovely, I fully expect Greece to rent somewhere nice in the South of France for the season.
excellent I hope you dont mind if I borrow that list?

PRTVR

7,136 posts

222 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
911Gary said:
Gargamel said:
But it is hilarious to watch as a voyeuristic sociopath (though I think some of the Greek people are being abused beyond what is ever acceptable)

The new depths of insanity required to keep the show on the road.

Lend us Money - here is 350bn
Pretend our interest rate risk is the same as German - OK
Support our Banking Liquidity to the tune of 80bn - no problem
Accept that our three month T bills are effectively us printing our own cash - sure
Allow us to repay IMF loans, using IMF emergency funding - Yep
We need to raise pension repayments and re hire 600 cleaners - off you go
We made a current account surplus last year, by not paying any suppliers and by rolling the wage bill back a month, ok if we stop doing that and fall back into deficit ?
Our citizens would prefer to send 20bn of private wealth abroad - well who can blame them
We don't want to pay any tax either - We don't mind

Barking the lot of them.

Now we hear that an emergency of loan of 5bn is heading there way to cover the summer. Mmm how lovely, I fully expect Greece to rent somewhere nice in the South of France for the season.
excellent I hope you dont mind if I borrow that list?
I agree, very good, the only fault I can see with it is the use of the word loan, if they can not pay back the rest of the money they have been given, there is no way they will pay this back, it is a gift.

Mr Whippy

29,109 posts

242 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
911Gary said:
Gargamel said:
But it is hilarious to watch as a voyeuristic sociopath (though I think some of the Greek people are being abused beyond what is ever acceptable)

The new depths of insanity required to keep the show on the road.

Lend us Money - here is 350bn
Pretend our interest rate risk is the same as German - OK
Support our Banking Liquidity to the tune of 80bn - no problem
Accept that our three month T bills are effectively us printing our own cash - sure
Allow us to repay IMF loans, using IMF emergency funding - Yep
We need to raise pension repayments and re hire 600 cleaners - off you go
We made a current account surplus last year, by not paying any suppliers and by rolling the wage bill back a month, ok if we stop doing that and fall back into deficit ?
Our citizens would prefer to send 20bn of private wealth abroad - well who can blame them
We don't want to pay any tax either - We don't mind

Barking the lot of them.

Now we hear that an emergency of loan of 5bn is heading there way to cover the summer. Mmm how lovely, I fully expect Greece to rent somewhere nice in the South of France for the season.
excellent I hope you dont mind if I borrow that list?
I agree, very good, the only fault I can see with it is the use of the word loan, if they can not pay back the rest of the money they have been given, there is no way they will pay this back, it is a gift.
I was reading comments elsewhere on this issue, and someone said they'll never be able to leave. Letting slaves leave and write off their burdens to the slave owner looks bad and just encourages more to do the same.

Greece won't get an easy out to put it simply.

Whether those elected choose a painful out, or a painful in, is up to them I suppose. I'm not sure what promises they were elected upon, but it seems they're starting to drag their feet. Either choose, in or out. It's not hard. Though any 'in' will probably be faced with an out again soon as the Greek people vote with their heads rather than their short term pockets.



But then I've also seen some people pondering if Russia has asked Greece to remain in for as long as possible, just to cause EU disruption... if Russia are backing Greece in a worst case scenario now then they have little to lose just grabbing from Germany and the IMF longer and longer. Hmmmm.


Interesting times... it can only ultimately get worse as time passes though. The EU project is a failure and if they can't paint over the cracks easily with a little 10mill population country, the wheels are REALLY going to come off when it's Italy or Spain!

Dave

Steffan

10,362 posts

229 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
But it is hilarious to watch as a voyeuristic sociopath (though I think some of the Greek people are being abused beyond what is ever acceptable)

The new depths of insanity required to keep the show on the road.

Lend us Money - here is 350bn
Pretend our interest rate risk is the same as German - OK
Support our Banking Liquidity to the tune of 80bn - no problem
Accept that our three month T bills are effectively us printing our own cash - sure
Allow us to repay IMF loans, using IMF emergency funding - Yep
We need to raise pension repayments and re hire 600 cleaners - off you go
We made a current account surplus last year, by not paying any suppliers and by rolling the wage bill back a month, ok if we stop doing that and fall back into deficit ?
Our citizens would prefer to send 20bn of private wealth abroad - well who can blame them
We don't want to pay any tax either - We don't mind

Barking the lot of them.

Now we hear that an emergency of loan of 5bn is heading there way to cover the summer. Mmm how lovely, I fully expect Greece to rent somewhere nice in the South of France for the season.
Mr Whippy said:
PRTVR said:
911Gary said:
Gargamel said:
But it is hilarious to watch as a voyeuristic sociopath (though I think some of the Greek people are being abused beyond what is ever acceptable)

The new depths of insanity required to keep the show on the road.

Lend us Money - here is 350bn
Pretend our interest rate risk is the same as German - OK
Support our Banking Liquidity to the tune of 80bn - no problem
Accept that our three month T bills are effectively us printing our own cash - sure
Allow us to repay IMF loans, using IMF emergency funding - Yep
We need to raise pension repayments and re hire 600 cleaners - off you go
We made a current account surplus last year, by not paying any suppliers and by rolling the wage bill back a month, ok if we stop doing that and fall back into deficit ?
Our citizens would prefer to send 20bn of private wealth abroad - well who can blame them
We don't want to pay any tax either - We don't mind

Barking the lot of them.

Now we hear that an emergency of loan of 5bn is heading there way to cover the summer. Mmm how lovely, I fully expect Greece to rent somewhere nice in the South of France for the season.
excellent I hope you dont mind if I borrow that list?
I agree, very good, the only fault I can see with it is the use of the word loan, if they can not pay back the rest of the money they have been given, there is no way they will pay this back, it is a gift.
I was reading comments elsewhere on this issue, and someone said they'll never be able to leave. Letting slaves leave and write off their burdens to the slave owner looks bad and just encourages more to do the same.

Greece won't get an easy out to put it simply.

Whether those elected choose a painful out, or a painful in, is up to them I suppose. I'm not sure what promises they were elected upon, but it seems they're starting to drag their feet. Either choose, in or out. It's not hard. Though any 'in' will probably be faced with an out again soon as the Greek people vote with their heads rather than their short term pockets.



But then I've also seen some people pondering if Russia has asked Greece to remain in for as long as possible, just to cause EU disruption... if Russia are backing Greece in a worst case scenario now then they have little to lose just grabbing from Germany and the IMF longer and longer. Hmmmm.


Interesting times... it can only ultimately get worse as time passes though. The EU project is a failure and if they can't paint over the cracks easily with a little 10mill population country, the wheels are REALLY going to come off when it's Italy or Spain!

Dave
Both very inforative posts. Both identify the complete nonsense that this has most regrettaby become.

When yet more and more Billions of Euros are going to be wasted once again by the EU following on five years of Greece failing to show the slightest economic improvement in any way then this nonsense has reached and indeed gone boyond the point of economic farce.

There never has been even the slightest possibility that the economy of Greece might recover because successive governments in Greece have pursued policies which cannot allow the economic recovery so desperately needed by Greece. The entire business of this Greek failure has become totally ridiculous. And more importantly, wholly unrecoverable.

Nothing in this absolute mess has ever in any way addressed the reality of the problem over the five year period. This disgrace has been running because neither the EU nor Greece are actually interested in attempting to address or resolve the problem. The EU have simply created an economic smoke screen to hide the constant bailing out of Greece, an insolvent independant Sovereign State without either tye EU or Greece admitting that was in reality the plan and jointy abd severally deliberately misleading the EU electorate. This was aways the reality if the consequences of this plan. Te pan has aways been a smoke screen in reality. There never was abd still is not a solution.

The reality of the EU policy has in fact become:

Push this forward do not allow Greece to fail, deliberately hide the losses, pretend these are loans whilst being fully aware that Greece is hopessly insolvent and keep bailing out Greece time after time irrespective of the massive losses that will be met by the solvent sovereign EU states which must be the inevitable consequences of such a criminally irresponsible policy.

As Gargamel, Mr Whippy and 911Gary all suggest this has become an utterly disgraceful nonsense and inevitably, in the end, despite all the EU denials, Greece will fail. Unfortunately for the EU I think one of the consequences of such a massive and deliberate misleading of the EU electorate by the planned misrepresentation of the Leaders and Shakers within the EU will be a steadily growing general sense of realisation within both the EU electorate and the financial markets that the word of the EU is not worth a lot.

Bad news indeed for the EU and once the general shock of the failure of a member state within the EU, has spread through Europe and the financial markets very serious and pointed questions are going to be asked of the EU itself. Combine that with the approach in the UK of the EU referendum being promsed by Cameron and adopted by Andy Burnham on behalf of labour and a very different picture may veryvwell emerge shortly in Europe.

The EU can keep this rolling because they alone, control the QE printing presses, which can wash more and more billions of Euros away in order to keep this going just a little longer. What the EU cannot do is to actually control the economic polices of Greece who are following a very different agenda. Syriza are showing no signs of facing the probem, preferring to carry on regardess. Therefore default of Greece is inevitable.

I do wonder how long the EU can keep up the effective news blackout In the mainstream meda. Very little comment on the matter considering how blatantly dishonest the whoe sorry affair has become. Tragedy what a bottomless cheque book full of other peopes money can be abused into supporting. Without their knowledge. Bad News for Greece, the EU and Europe. Dreadful news for the taxpayers of the EU solvent states who will be picking up the bill.


Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

248 months

Tuesday 19th May 2015
quotequote all
That nice Mr Varoufakis says Greece will have a new deal within a week...

http://t.co/J0vbvkQLlr

My own opinion is somewhat different: