UK General Election 2015

[confused_buyer]

As a Tory majority at the next election looks pretty unlikely, a referendum is unlikely to happen so it is something of a moot point anyway.

[Bluebarge]

turbobloke said:

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

el stovey said:

I agree but what you will hear in the media is (some) big companies saying they might move overseas if GB leaves the EU. There will be lots of scare stories about what might happen. That's what will stop people voting for it, the fear of the unknown. Like the Scottish referendum all the older people and pensioners will be the most influential group and will likely vote no as they want things to stay the same.

But this is the UK not a splinter off it. The prospect of what's ahead if we remain in is also weighing heavily on voters.

Axionknight said:

Who can blame them, with the lies the Yes campaign peddled.

Indeed, and we've heard it all before already.

The problem is that parts of the UK are pro-EU (Wales and Scotland and London). If the UK votes to leave the EU, you can easily envisage parts of the UK who are pro-EU opting for independence under an EU umbrella. If London also opted to do this then England would be truly fooked ;-)

Yes London matters but a city can't just wish for independence and it happens, even whole countries can't manage that trick.

Ask Mr A Salmond

If Scotland and Wales wanted out of the UK and back into the EU it couldn't possibly happen quick enough, there should be no delay in which they could change their minds.

There've been plenty of successful City states in the past

I also don't think you'd welcome an independent Wales and Scotland in the EU - all those Celtic Tiger tax breaks for multinationals, plus a base inside the Single Market, would have plenty of English jobs crossing the border in very short order.

[BlackLabel]

FiF said:

ON the question of, if he is leader after 2015GE, will Cameron deliver a referendum or not, I think he will, if he didn't, he and the Conservative party are toast and deservedly so.

Cameron promised an in/out referendum "if the Conservative party wins the election". Their chances of winning the election are very slim - it's about 7/1 at the bookies just now for a Con majority.

[turbobloke]

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

el stovey said:

I agree but what you will hear in the media is (some) big companies saying they might move overseas if GB leaves the EU. There will be lots of scare stories about what might happen. That's what will stop people voting for it, the fear of the unknown. Like the Scottish referendum all the older people and pensioners will be the most influential group and will likely vote no as they want things to stay the same.

But this is the UK not a splinter off it. The prospect of what's ahead if we remain in is also weighing heavily on voters.

Axionknight said:

Who can blame them, with the lies the Yes campaign peddled.

Indeed, and we've heard it all before already.

The problem is that parts of the UK are pro-EU (Wales and Scotland and London). If the UK votes to leave the EU, you can easily envisage parts of the UK who are pro-EU opting for independence under an EU umbrella. If London also opted to do this then England would be truly fooked ;-)

Yes London matters but a city can't just wish for independence and it happens, even whole countries can't manage that trick.

Ask Mr A Salmond

If Scotland and Wales wanted out of the UK and back into the EU it couldn't possibly happen quick enough, there should be no delay in which they could change their minds.

There've been plenty of successful City states in the past

I also don't think you'd welcome an independent Wales and Scotland in the EU - all those Celtic Tiger tax breaks for multinationals, plus a base inside the Single Market, would have plenty of English jobs crossing the border in very short order.

That ignores reality, even turns it on its head. The EU won't allow significant tax breaks in what would be core-dependency states, for one thing it's not 'ever closer union' to do so, see their response to Ireland's past corporation tax position - also Wales and Scotland are far more left wing than England so their governance (including tax strategy) and spending within the fantasy world of EU magic beans would likely be a mix of Hollande and Brown. Meanwhile a Conservatively run English parliament under anyone but CMD - who would have been given the bullet long ago in this scenario - would get cracking with fracking and a lower tax environment, encouraging investment and relocations. Bring it on.

[Esseesse]

BlackLabel said:

FiF said:

ON the question of, if he is leader after 2015GE, will Cameron deliver a referendum or not, I think he will, if he didn't, he and the Conservative party are toast and deservedly so.

Cameron promised an in/out referendum "if the Conservative party wins the election". Their chances of winning the election are very slim - it's about 7/1 at the bookies just now for a Con majority.

If he actually wants one, he should try to secure one if he is coalition PM. In fact, if it was important to him, having an EU referendum in 2017 would be a red line for him in coalition negotiations.

[confused_buyer]

Esseesse said:

If he actually wants one, he should try to secure one if he is coalition PM. In fact, if it was important to him, having an EU referendum in 2017 would be a red line for him in coalition negotiations.

The problem is that every party has "red lines" and if they all refuse to budge on them then no Government gets formed.

I can't see who he could make such a deal with. The Lib Dems have already voted down a referendum in this parliament, as have Labour and SNP.

I can't see who is a likely candidate for any Conservative coalition anyway. The LibDems are unlikely to have enough MP's to hold the balance of power - as are UKIP and the SNP have said no already.

Unless Cameron gets very, very close to a majority an unholy Labour led coalition of SNP, rump of LibDems and maybe the odd Green and Northern Ireland MP thrown in for good measure seems the most likely. God help us.

[Bluebarge]

turbobloke said:

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

el stovey said:

I agree but what you will hear in the media is (some) big companies saying they might move overseas if GB leaves the EU. There will be lots of scare stories about what might happen. That's what will stop people voting for it, the fear of the unknown. Like the Scottish referendum all the older people and pensioners will be the most influential group and will likely vote no as they want things to stay the same.

But this is the UK not a splinter off it. The prospect of what's ahead if we remain in is also weighing heavily on voters.

Axionknight said:

Who can blame them, with the lies the Yes campaign peddled.

Indeed, and we've heard it all before already.

The problem is that parts of the UK are pro-EU (Wales and Scotland and London). If the UK votes to leave the EU, you can easily envisage parts of the UK who are pro-EU opting for independence under an EU umbrella. If London also opted to do this then England would be truly fooked ;-)

Yes London matters but a city can't just wish for independence and it happens, even whole countries can't manage that trick.

Ask Mr A Salmond

If Scotland and Wales wanted out of the UK and back into the EU it couldn't possibly happen quick enough, there should be no delay in which they could change their minds.

There've been plenty of successful City states in the past

I also don't think you'd welcome an independent Wales and Scotland in the EU - all those Celtic Tiger tax breaks for multinationals, plus a base inside the Single Market, would have plenty of English jobs crossing the border in very short order.

That ignores reality, even turns it on its head. The EU won't allow significant tax breaks in what would be core-dependency states, for one thing it's not 'ever closer union' to do so, see their response to Ireland's past corporation tax position - also Wales and Scotland are far more left wing than England so their governance (including tax strategy) and spending within the fantasy world of EU magic beans would likely be a mix of Hollande and Brown. Meanwhile a Conservatively run English parliament under anyone but CMD - who would have been given the bullet long ago in this scenario - would get cracking with fracking and a lower tax environment, encouraging investment and relocations. Bring it on.

Yeah but with all the EU tariff barriers to contend with, Wales witholding your water supply, and the Grand Duchy of London seceding under its charismatic leader, Prince Boris, you'd still be fked

[Bluebarge]

confused_buyer said:

The problem is that every party has "red lines" and if they all refuse to budge on them then no Government gets formed.

I can't see who he could make such a deal with. The Lib Dems have already voted down a referendum in this parliament, as have Labour and SNP.

I can't see who is a likely candidate for any Conservative coalition anyway. The LibDems are unlikely to have enough MP's to hold the balance of power - as are UKIP and the SNP have said no already.

Unless Cameron gets very, very close to a majority an unholy Labour led coalition of SNP, rump of LibDems and maybe the odd Green and Northern Ireland MP thrown in for good measure seems the most likely. God help us.

Thought I'd read that the Lib-Dems are still in line for about 30 seats. Their vote in their traditional strongholds is nowhere near as bad as it is on a national level.

[confused_buyer]

Bluebarge said:

Thought I'd read that the Lib-Dems are still in line for about 30 seats. Their vote in their traditional strongholds is nowhere near as bad as it is on a national level.

There seems to be a lot of variation. No one really knows. On current polls the Tories look to be down about 45 seats so a repeat of the current coalition looks impossible on current figures.

[anonymous-user]

Esseesse said:

BlackLabel said:

FiF said:

ON the question of, if he is leader after 2015GE, will Cameron deliver a referendum or not, I think he will, if he didn't, he and the Conservative party are toast and deservedly so.

Cameron promised an in/out referendum "if the Conservative party wins the election". Their chances of winning the election are very slim - it's about 7/1 at the bookies just now for a Con majority.

If he actually wants one, he should try to secure one if he is coalition PM. In fact, if it was important to him, having an EU referendum in 2017 would be a red line for him in coalition negotiations.

Right. And if no referendum is a red line in the counterparty's negotiations?

No coalition. And no chance of a referendum.

ISTR that the Con position is that they'd attempt to renegotiate terms with the EU first, and if no satisfactory renegotiation eventuated, then we'd have a referendum.

Your point seems to be that Cameron isn't Farage.

[Axionknight]

Esseesse said:

If he actually wants one, he should try to secure one if he is coalition PM. In fact, if it was important to him, having an EU referendum in 2017 would be a red line for him in coalition negotiations.

Count that out then.

[turbobloke]

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

Bluebarge said:

turbobloke said:

el stovey said:

I agree but what you will hear in the media is (some) big companies saying they might move overseas if GB leaves the EU. There will be lots of scare stories about what might happen. That's what will stop people voting for it, the fear of the unknown. Like the Scottish referendum all the older people and pensioners will be the most influential group and will likely vote no as they want things to stay the same.

But this is the UK not a splinter off it. The prospect of what's ahead if we remain in is also weighing heavily on voters.

Axionknight said:

Who can blame them, with the lies the Yes campaign peddled.

Indeed, and we've heard it all before already.

The problem is that parts of the UK are pro-EU (Wales and Scotland and London). If the UK votes to leave the EU, you can easily envisage parts of the UK who are pro-EU opting for independence under an EU umbrella. If London also opted to do this then England would be truly fooked ;-)

Yes London matters but a city can't just wish for independence and it happens, even whole countries can't manage that trick.

Ask Mr A Salmond

If Scotland and Wales wanted out of the UK and back into the EU it couldn't possibly happen quick enough, there should be no delay in which they could change their minds.

There've been plenty of successful City states in the past

I also don't think you'd welcome an independent Wales and Scotland in the EU - all those Celtic Tiger tax breaks for multinationals, plus a base inside the Single Market, would have plenty of English jobs crossing the border in very short order.

That ignores reality, even turns it on its head. The EU won't allow significant tax breaks in what would be core-dependency states, for one thing it's not 'ever closer union' to do so, see their response to Ireland's past corporation tax position - also Wales and Scotland are far more left wing than England so their governance (including tax strategy) and spending within the fantasy world of EU magic beans would likely be a mix of Hollande and Brown. Meanwhile a Conservatively run English parliament under anyone but CMD - who would have been given the bullet long ago in this scenario - would get cracking with fracking and a lower tax environment, encouraging investment and relocations. Bring it on.

Yeah but with all the EU tariff barriers to contend with, Wales witholding your water supply, and the Grand Duchy of London seceding under its charismatic leader, Prince Boris, you'd still be fked

Boris as Duke of Anything just blew it

[Wombat3]

Scuffers said:

FiF said:

ON the question of, if he is leader after 2015GE, will Cameron deliver a referendum or not, I think he will, if he didn't, he and the Conservative party are toast and deservedly so.

disagree...

I think he will play the re-negotiate card, come up with a load of irrelevances he has supposedly 'won', then say no referendum required.

he's had 5 years to re-negotiate, and done jack-sh*t, why should we all suddenly believe he's going to start next term?

He has no mandate to renegotiate currently - he's in a coalition with people who don't want to renegotiate.

He'd also be trying to renegotiate with people who know he currently has no mandate and who also know that he can't get a bill through his own parliament to force a referendum before he has a working majority.

As with any negotiation the EU is not going to take it seriously until such time as there is a real possibility of a referendum - in other words until it has been legislated for. Until then they have no reason to lift a finger, and they won't

What they might do after a referendum act has passed through parliament and a referendum date is set is another story.

They may do nothing & still refuse to concede anything - in which case they will make Br-Exit very much more likely.

Is this stuff really so hard to comprehend or is it just "inconvenient"?

[FiF]

A question Did Cameron at some point when questioned about a referendum inthe vcontext of another coalition government not say that he would not be leader of another government which failed to deliver a referendum? I think he did you know.

[Esseesse]

FiF said:

A question Did Cameron at some point when questioned about a referendum inthe vcontext of another coalition government not say that he would not be leader of another government which failed to deliver a referendum? I think he did you know.

Perhaps...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/29/david-c...

Article said:

David Cameron has said he will quit as prime minister if he cannot deliver an in-or-out referendum on the EU after the next general election.

Cameron made the commitment in a conference call to party supporters on Monday evening, saying if he remained prime minister after the next election but could not deliver the referendum by 2017, he would leave office....

....Cameron said he would not “barter away” the referendum in any new coalition negotiations that might follow the election if there is still a hung parliament.

“This is not something I would ever barter away or give away. I would not be prime minister of a government unless we could carry out our pledge of an in-out referendum,” Cameron said.

“I’ve already pre-empted that question, what happens if somehow you don’t win the election outright. I’ve been very clear: I would not continue as prime minister unless I be absolutely guaranteed this referendum will go ahead on an in-out basis. I can’t make it any clearer than that.”

Oh good. Feet might be able to be held to flames.

[turbobloke]

Esseesse said:

FiF said:

A question Did Cameron at some point when questioned about a referendum inthe vcontext of another coalition government not say that he would not be leader of another government which failed to deliver a referendum? I think he did you know.

Perhaps...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/29/david-c...

Article said:

David Cameron has said he will quit as prime minister if he cannot deliver an in-or-out referendum on the EU after the next general election.

Cameron made the commitment in a conference call to party supporters on Monday evening, saying if he remained prime minister after the next election but could not deliver the referendum by 2017, he would leave office....

....Cameron said he would not “barter away” the referendum in any new coalition negotiations that might follow the election if there is still a hung parliament.

“This is not something I would ever barter away or give away. I would not be prime minister of a government unless we could carry out our pledge of an in-out referendum,” Cameron said.

“I’ve already pre-empted that question, what happens if somehow you don’t win the election outright. I’ve been very clear: I would not continue as prime minister unless I be absolutely guaranteed this referendum will go ahead on an in-out basis. I can’t make it any clearer than that.”

Oh good. Feet might be able to be held to flames.

And balls to skewers at the very least.

[FiF]

Esseesse said:

FiF said:

A question Did Cameron at some point when questioned about a referendum inthe vcontext of another coalition government not say that he would not be leader of another government which failed to deliver a referendum? I think he did you know.

Perhaps...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/29/david-c...

Article said:

David Cameron has said he will quit as prime minister if he cannot deliver an in-or-out referendum on the EU after the next general election.

Cameron made the commitment in a conference call to party supporters on Monday evening, saying if he remained prime minister after the next election but could not deliver the referendum by 2017, he would leave office....

....Cameron said he would not “barter away” the referendum in any new coalition negotiations that might follow the election if there is still a hung parliament.

“This is not something I would ever barter away or give away. I would not be prime minister of a government unless we could carry out our pledge of an in-out referendum,” Cameron said.

“I’ve already pre-empted that question, what happens if somehow you don’t win the election outright. I’ve been very clear: I would not continue as prime minister unless I be absolutely guaranteed this referendum will go ahead on an in-out basis. I can’t make it any clearer than that.”

Oh good. Feet might be able to be held to flames.

Thanks for posting that. My search proved unsuccessful and was beginning to think I had dreamt it.

[Scuffers]

Is this any different from the cast iron garrentte though?

[Zod]

Scuffers said:

FiF said:

ON the question of, if he is leader after 2015GE, will Cameron deliver a referendum or not, I think he will, if he didn't, he and the Conservative party are toast and deservedly so.

disagree...

I think he will play the re-negotiate card, come up with a load of irrelevances he has supposedly 'won', then say no referendum required.

he's had 5 years to re-negotiate, and done jack-sh*t, why should we all suddenly believe he's going to start next term?

You Kippers contradict yourselves constantly: either the rest of the EU won't negotiate with us or it will and he hasn't bothered to try seem to be your twin contradictory themes. The reality is that negotiations will begin post-election if the Conservatives are in charge. The LibDems haven't allowed it for the last five years and mos of the EU has been busy kicking the can down the road to try to avoid countries falling out of the Euro.

If the Conservatives win, Germany will pull out all the stops to keep the UK in Europe. Merkel knows major concessions are needed for the referendum to deliver a stay in verdict, but she's hardly going to telegraph them upfront.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9427141/europe...

[Wombat3]

Zod said:

Scuffers said:

FiF said:

ON the question of, if he is leader after 2015GE, will Cameron deliver a referendum or not, I think he will, if he didn't, he and the Conservative party are toast and deservedly so.

disagree...

I think he will play the re-negotiate card, come up with a load of irrelevances he has supposedly 'won', then say no referendum required.

he's had 5 years to re-negotiate, and done jack-sh*t, why should we all suddenly believe he's going to start next term?

You Kippers contradict yourselves constantly: either the rest of the EU won't negotiate with us or it will and he hasn't bothered to try seem to be your twin contradictory themes. The reality is that negotiations will begin post-election if the Conservatives are in charge. The LibDems haven't allowed it for the last five years and mos of the EU has been busy kicking the can down the road to try to avoid countries falling out of the Euro.

If the Conservatives win, Germany will pull out all the stops to keep the UK in Europe. Merkel knows major concessions are needed for the referendum to deliver a stay in verdict, but she's hardly going to telegraph them upfront.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9427141/europe...

You'd think that was pretty obvious really......