The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
JawKnee said:
If these tariffs are such a wonderful thing for the economy then why are countries around the world trying to strike up deals with each other to reduce or remove them?
Tariffs make our products less competitively priced and imported goods more expensive for the consumer. Not quite the win-win you're painting it out to be.
I'll try and keep this simple.Tariffs make our products less competitively priced and imported goods more expensive for the consumer. Not quite the win-win you're painting it out to be.
Tariffs are not good, and there shouldn't be any. But if we revert to WTO rules under a "hard brexit" scenario then the tariffs WILL apply on goods in each direction, we'll be obligated to apply them, unless we can form a trade agreement.
The government have simply said that IF these tariffs kick in, then they will pay them for Nissan.
They'll be able to do this because they will be creaming in tariffs themselves off every imported car. They'll receive far more than they ever pay out (unless we all stop buying imports and only buy domestically produced, which would be pretty much impossible).
In effect the government have secured the Nissan investment by promising to give them a small slice of the big pie that the government will get in the event that tariffs are imposed. Assuming tariffs aren't imposed (which they probably won't be) then the government gives them diddlysquat. But either way, we get the investment.
Explain in simple terms why you don't think that's a win-win please?
JawKnee said:
If these tariffs are such a wonderful thing for the economy then why are countries around the world trying to strike up deals with each other to reduce or remove them?
Tariffs make our products less competitively priced and imported goods more expensive for the consumer. Not quite the win-win you're painting it out to be.
A question you should ask the EU. Given that the EU will put tariffs on then yes, its a win for us. Of course we want a free trade, no tariff deal, as trade with the EU would improve. But the drop in sterling outweighs the EU tariffs anyway. Tariffs make our products less competitively priced and imported goods more expensive for the consumer. Not quite the win-win you're painting it out to be.
WinstonWolf said:
JawKnee said:
WinstonWolf said:
The economy out performed the predictions and is growing. We've all seen how wrong the 'experts' and their predictions are...
Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
Banks are far from happy. Some want to leave, others are seeing declines in revenue because of low interest rates.Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
CaptainSlow said:
Apologies, it was what they wanted
"Last month, he warned that Nissan might not invest in the Sunderland plant unless the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit."
Maybe they didn't get it and they have gone ahead without the reassurances.
Or maybe May told Nissan that she is going for ultra soft Brexit, something she consistently denies to Parliament, but, you know, she'll obviously share the full Brexit negotiating strategy with Nissan.
Government policy is for the EU to give us a treaty with full SM access but none of the things we do not want. Mind you in the last statement TM did not mention no payment to the EU."Last month, he warned that Nissan might not invest in the Sunderland plant unless the government guaranteed compensation for costs related to any new trade tariffs resulting from Brexit."
Maybe they didn't get it and they have gone ahead without the reassurances.
Or maybe May told Nissan that she is going for ultra soft Brexit, something she consistently denies to Parliament, but, you know, she'll obviously share the full Brexit negotiating strategy with Nissan.
Obviously that's what the EU will give us then.
JawKnee said:
WinstonWolf said:
JawKnee said:
WinstonWolf said:
The economy out performed the predictions and is growing. We've all seen how wrong the 'experts' and their predictions are...
Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
Banks are far from happy. Some want to leave, others are seeing declines in revenue because of low interest rates.Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
However Carney sees it differently - he's had a shot across the bows
The economy is not nose diving - perhaps his next action would be to raise a little the interest rates.
JawKnee said:
Revenue is not the same as profit. Lloyd's have seen a fall in revenue but due to job losses and other cost cutting measures it isn't impacting profit yet.
I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
Of course it is but revenue isn't important, it's interest margin and fee income that's important, but not as important as profit.I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
Mrr T said:
Government policy is for the EU to give us a treaty with full SM access but none of the things we do not want. Mind you in the last statement TM did not mention no payment to the EU.
Obviously that's what the EU will give us then.
Possibly, SM access is different to SM membership and if a small fee is payable so be it. Obviously we may need to charge a small fee for access to the UK market.Obviously that's what the EU will give us then.
JawKnee said:
davepoth said:
JawKnee said:
I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
How?JawKnee said:
davepoth said:
JawKnee said:
I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
How?Here's something written by a real economist that says the opposite, with references.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/may...
CaptainSlow said:
So a region in Belgium of 3.6m people has been able to hold the EU with over 500m people to ransom? Total madness, Remainers claim being the EU allows the UK to get a better deal, seems to me it's a massive compromise situation and that's before the negotiations start with the counter party.
Once the Walloons kicked off it was only ever going to be bad news for those who love the EU.That they could stall it at all was not good.
If they continued to dig their heels in it would have shown just how able to the EU would be to move with the times.
If they capitulated, it supports the theory that the EU elite always get what they want one way or the other.
The only positive outcome for those of an EU persuasion would have been no one objecting.
Pretty much everything that has happened since 23rd June has 100% underscored to me that voting to get out was the right thing to do.
CaptainSlow said:
Mrr T said:
Government policy is for the EU to give us a treaty with full SM access but none of the things we do not want. Mind you in the last statement TM did not mention no payment to the EU.
Obviously that's what the EU will give us then.
Possibly, SM access is different to SM membership and if a small fee is payable so be it. Obviously we may need to charge a small fee for access to the UK market.Obviously that's what the EU will give us then.
Blue Oval84 said:
Thank you for saving me the bother of posting this.
It's a bloody win win, we either don't have to pay Nissan a penny, or we cover their losses and take the money from the much larger pile of tariffs on imported vehicles.
UK Gov could afford to subsidise every car manufacturer in Britain and still be quids in.
You do understand it would be UK tax payers paying the UK import duty? So thats a massive rise in UK taxes?It's a bloody win win, we either don't have to pay Nissan a penny, or we cover their losses and take the money from the much larger pile of tariffs on imported vehicles.
UK Gov could afford to subsidise every car manufacturer in Britain and still be quids in.
Blue Oval84 said:
And this assumes that tariffs are imposed on cars, which I think is incredibly unlikely, even if we don't end up in the EEA, which seems more likely by the day.
The only sensible way.Mrr T said:
With access or membership to the single market we will have to follow all the rules the difference with access is we have no say in the rules.
We have to follow all the US rules and don't have a say in them when exporting to the US too.The difference is with access to the SM we don't have to follow the SM rules when dealing with non-EU partners.
JawKnee said:
WinstonWolf said:
JawKnee said:
WinstonWolf said:
The economy out performed the predictions and is growing. We've all seen how wrong the 'experts' and their predictions are...
Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
Banks are far from happy. Some want to leave, others are seeing declines in revenue because of low interest rates.Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
WinstonWolf said:
JawKnee said:
WinstonWolf said:
JawKnee said:
WinstonWolf said:
The economy out performed the predictions and is growing. We've all seen how wrong the 'experts' and their predictions are...
Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
Banks are far from happy. Some want to leave, others are seeing declines in revenue because of low interest rates.Banks are happy, I'm very happy, the signs are all there you just refuse to see them.
I reiterate my point. Low interest rates are affecting banks' revenue.
Mrr T said:
With access or membership to the single market we will have to follow all the rules the difference with access is we have no say in the rules.
Actually we do. At the WTO and UN level. The EU is informed by supranational bodies. Once out we will have more influence at the higher levels.Mrr T said:
CaptainSlow said:
Mrr T said:
Government policy is for the EU to give us a treaty with full SM access but none of the things we do not want. Mind you in the last statement TM did not mention no payment to the EU.
Obviously that's what the EU will give us then.
Possibly, SM access is different to SM membership and if a small fee is payable so be it. Obviously we may need to charge a small fee for access to the UK market.Obviously that's what the EU will give us then.
For those unclear skip down to page 29
http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/TheNorwegi...
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