Climate Change - the big debate
Discussion
FunkyGibbon said:
article said:
"The new approach is that we first assess our physical understanding of these fundamental processes:..."
So if the first 4 reports didn't use this approach what approach did they use?
LOSU is 'level of scientific understanding' however while the levels shown are the writers' own views of their own understanding - with corresponding consummate validity - the point remains that solar irradiance forcing is (wrongly) handled but present, whereas solar eruptivity forcing is omitted.
So there's failure to understand, and there's failure to see. Research papers on solar eruptivity forcing have been in the literature for decades, and since a good deal of it predates the bullyboy warmist takeover of the peer review process in climate related journals there is a high degree of confidence in these papers which seemingly I can find and read and understand many years ago but these ecoluminati always miss. Tsk tsk how careless. Then you remember the general approach imposed by the climate bullyboy clique:
Jones to Mann: “will keep them out somehow — even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!”
V. Bucha, Advances in Space Research, Volume 6, Issue 10, 1986, Pages 77-82
Abstract
In order to prove that meridional flow changes into zonal flow as a result of auroral electrons and bremsstrahlung leading to an increase in temperature and pressure even in the troposphere, the relations between corpuscular (geomagnetic) activity and atmospheric pressure were statistically investigated in the northern hemisphere at the 500 hPa level. Correlation coefficients for daily, monthly and yearly values have confirmed that fluctuations in climate and weather including zonal and meridional circulations, blocking, invasions of arctic air and southern oscillation can be accounted for by the processes in the auroral oval.
Václav Bucha, Václav Bucha Jr., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 60 2 145-169 (1998)
Abstract extracts
In the hypothesis proposed here for explaining Sun-weather relations, downward winds following the geomagnetic storm onset are generated in the polar cap of the thermosphere and penetrate to the stratosphere and troposphere, where the atmospheric response can be observed as a sudden increase of pressure and temperature. . . It is shown that at a time of low geomagnetic activity, planetary waves with large amplitudes prevail in the northern hemisphere due to the orographic effect of the Rocky Mountains and Greenland. On the other hand, at a time of high geomagnetic activity, an intensification of the winds can be observed not only in the thermosphere but also in the troposphere. . . These relations are clearly detectable not only in monthly averages of the pressure and temperature distribution but also in the daily variations of atmospheric circulation.
The results obtained contribute also to the study of the occurrence of long-term cyclic changes which were observed both in solar and geomagnetic activity and temperature.
Clearly we're not talking Svensmark and recent material here, though the CRF mechanism is lost on the IPCC boy scouts also. It has to be lost, since including large natural forcings such as solar eruptivity would leave no room for the imaginary tax gas non-signal to be conjured up like a genie from the model.
Admittedly one of the verboten "quotes taken from a blog" but here's another for the certainty set (to instantly dismiss and decry no doubt):
The recent review of the IPCC's procedures, conducted by the InterAcademy Council (IAC), an umbrella body for the world's science academies, said that some assertions about the likelihood of severe impacts were based on little research.
"Authors reported high confidence in statements for which there is little evidence, such as the widely-quoted statement that agricultural yields in Africa might decline by up to 50 percent by 2020," it noted.
The IAC recommended that the next assessment must deal much more carefully and consistently with uncertainties - and Chris Field, co-chair of the IPCC working group on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, indicated the message had been taken on board.
"The fact of the matter is that climate change impacts are very poorly known," he told BBC News.
"We only have mature scientific studies for a small number of topics and a small number of places, so we need to recognise that and figure out how, in an environment where the information is limited, we can still provide valuable information.
"What I expect us to do is to use the uncertainty guidance very carefully so we can avoid problems where we seem to be asserting more confidence than the data will allow; but also provide value to a discussion where the confidence isn't necessarily very high.
"After all, most people spend their lives making decisions under uncertainty, and that's what dealing effectively with climate change demands - the same kind of decisions you make when you decide to buckle your seatbelt, or buy insurance for your house or invest in the financial markets."
Of course it's only from a blog so of no account, in comparison to the failure tested IPCC map to disasterland.
The recent review of the IPCC's procedures, conducted by the InterAcademy Council (IAC), an umbrella body for the world's science academies, said that some assertions about the likelihood of severe impacts were based on little research.
"Authors reported high confidence in statements for which there is little evidence, such as the widely-quoted statement that agricultural yields in Africa might decline by up to 50 percent by 2020," it noted.
The IAC recommended that the next assessment must deal much more carefully and consistently with uncertainties - and Chris Field, co-chair of the IPCC working group on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, indicated the message had been taken on board.
"The fact of the matter is that climate change impacts are very poorly known," he told BBC News.
"We only have mature scientific studies for a small number of topics and a small number of places, so we need to recognise that and figure out how, in an environment where the information is limited, we can still provide valuable information.
"What I expect us to do is to use the uncertainty guidance very carefully so we can avoid problems where we seem to be asserting more confidence than the data will allow; but also provide value to a discussion where the confidence isn't necessarily very high.
"After all, most people spend their lives making decisions under uncertainty, and that's what dealing effectively with climate change demands - the same kind of decisions you make when you decide to buckle your seatbelt, or buy insurance for your house or invest in the financial markets."
Of course it's only from a blog so of no account, in comparison to the failure tested IPCC map to disasterland.
FunkyGibbon said:
Hmm so LOSO of tax gas is rated as high, yet LOSO of the great ball of fire in the sky is low.
Would you therefore not try and increase LOSO of said ball. It may, just may, turn out to be significant.
Sure but the LOSU of these LOSE(RS) is so LOW in the first place that solar eruptivity forcing is completely ignored. That's a ZERO LOSU by omission. Solar eruptivity, operating through the Bucha Auroral Oval mechanism and the Svensmark CRF mechanism, is understood already, except by those who look the other way to the adoring gaze of their political masters and comrades in GIGO.Would you therefore not try and increase LOSO of said ball. It may, just may, turn out to be significant.
Anthem: "We'll keep the tax gas flag flying here"
nelly1 said:
Lots of nutty women protesting about Climate Change have bought my neighbourhood to a standstill.
Coryton Oil refinery in Essex - I've never seen so many Police!
Nothing on the news other than a ticker on Sky ATM.
Bring out the Tasers!
Cull. Just cull . . Coryton Oil refinery in Essex - I've never seen so many Police!
Nothing on the news other than a ticker on Sky ATM.
Bring out the Tasers!
Edited by Lost_BMW on Saturday 16th October 16:21
In Lost Bwm's Post Chris Field said:
"We only have mature scientific studies for a small number of topics and a small number of places, so we need to recognise that and figure out how, in an environment where the information is limited, we can still provide valuable information".
Surely, they will have to conclude that with only limited information they cannot provide valuable information and therefore should keep their mouths shut?Blib said:
In Lost Bwm's Post Chris Field said:
"We only have mature scientific studies for a small number of topics and a small number of places, so we need to recognise that and figure out how, in an environment where the information is limited, we can still provide valuable information".
Surely, they will have to conclude that with only limited information they cannot provide valuable information and therefore should keep their mouths shut?Blue Meanie said:
dickymint said:
b
ks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth.
ks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth.
Classic! 
News of a red green man in a blue green world emerged recently. Over to Willy.
The Government should grasp the nettle and put road pricing at the heart of a new roads policy, a former senior DfT civil servant said this week. Willy Rickett says there is not enough discussion about future roads policy. “The vast majority of travel, including a lot of our public transport, takes place on the roads, so [transport] policy will have to say as much about this as about runways and high-speed rail,” he says in a paper commissioned by the RAC Foundation. Rickett was director general of strategy, finance & delivery in the DfT between 2000 and 2004 and oversaw the preparation of the Government’s ten-year transport plan in 2000. After leaving the DfT he went on to become director general in the energy group of the Department for Energy and Climate Change. He is now a senior adviser with Cambridge Economic Policy Associates. Rickett says the “biggest unresolved issue” in transport policy is whether road user charging has a part to play. Mirroring comments of the Commission for Integrated Transport (see page 4) he says the case for a new way of raising revenue from motoring is becoming increasingly strong. “Revenue from fuel duty is declining as vehicle fuel efficiency rises. Fuel duty will anyway need replacing when electric vehicles become more widespread.”
This tax gas b
ks really did open Pandora's Box. As to fuel duty needing replacing, more bks. Electric vehicle taxes will lead to double charging (no pun intended) given what's happening to energy prices and why.FunkyGibbon said:
Blue Meanie said:
dickymint said:
bks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth.
ks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth. Classic! 2 weeks on and 14 bags of ice later, my soup is still cold.
What could be going on here
turbobloke said:
FunkyGibbon said:
Blue Meanie said:
dickymint said:
bks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth.
ks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth. Classic! 2 weeks on and 14 bags of ice later, my soup is still cold.
What could be going on here
chris watton said:
turbobloke said:
FunkyGibbon said:
Blue Meanie said:
dickymint said:
bks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth.
ks! Just put an ice cube in my whisky and burnt my mouth. Classic! 2 weeks on and 14 bags of ice later, my soup is still cold.
What could be going on here
You have to use the Force.......Luke.....
Edited by Blue Meanie on Sunday 17th October 14:23
Time to doff a cap once again to the antics of Wrong Way Flanagan.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2007/09/...
Edited to provide a link that works and to add that later on Mrs F told the media that her husband didn't really truuuuuuly belieeeeeeeeeeeeve in manmadeup warming and set off for an entirely different reason involving polar heat pixies and thigh rubbing. That last bit may not be accurate though.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2007/09/...
Edited to provide a link that works and to add that later on Mrs F told the media that her husband didn't really truuuuuuly belieeeeeeeeeeeeve in manmadeup warming and set off for an entirely different reason involving polar heat pixies and thigh rubbing. That last bit may not be accurate though.
Edited by turbobloke on Sunday 17th October 14:28
turbobloke said:
Time to doff a cap once again to the antics of Wrong Way Flanagan.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2007/09/...
Edited to provide a link that works and to add that later on Mrs F told the media that her husband didn't really truuuuuuly belieeeeeeeeeeeeve in manmadeup warming and set off for an entirely different reason involving polar heat pixies and thigh rubbing. That last bit may not be accurate though.
Truncheon Of The Year....http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2007/09/...
Edited to provide a link that works and to add that later on Mrs F told the media that her husband didn't really truuuuuuly belieeeeeeeeeeeeve in manmadeup warming and set off for an entirely different reason involving polar heat pixies and thigh rubbing. That last bit may not be accurate though.
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