Why the UKIP will never work....

[XJ Flyer]

TKF said:

Scuffers said:

this whole concept of left and right is just meaningless these days.

Of course it isn't. Just because a new party is in its ascendency doesn't mean you can rewrite definitions of what is left or right.

Put bluntly, Left is about the people, Right is about the economy. Policies are decided based upon these basic ideologies.

If the economy is doing well people are happy. If people are happy the economy does well. Left and right should achieve the same result. The key word bring should.

UKIP's policies are right wing. Further right than the Tories which have drifted towards the centre but still remain the main right wing party in the UK.

Explain how the economy can be seperated from the living standards of 'the people' and how an open door immigration policy that benefits the so called 'right' in the form of over supplying the labour market thereby depressing income levels,is also supposedly good from the point of view of 'the people'.While conversely closing the door to immigrant labour thereby keeping income levels higher is seen as so called 'right wing'.

It is that contradiction which shows that socialists are not for 'the people' at all but for their own ideology which doesn't recognise the idea of the nation state and is all about the politics of envy in bringing the rich down to the level of the poor not vice versa.In which case moving in poorer ethnic groups to be integrated into richer society is obviously all part of that ideology.

Which proves that there is no 'left'.The socialists just setting themselves up as the party of 'the people' when they are actually just a group of self serving Tito types at best or Fascists/ Stalinists at worst with their own agenda to match.In this case allied with the 'right' who see socialist ideology as a good way of keeping the expectations ( incomes ) of 'the people' down.Wether it be in the form of the rationed NHS and social security system,high density housing estates,or an open door immigration policy.

[XJ Flyer]

Scuffers said:

we import way more from the EU than export to it, simple economics will dictate.

we already trade with every other country on the planet perfectly well, why should the EU be any different?

The former fact answers the question of the latter.Before we joined the EU we were in trade surplus not deficit.We were effectively blackmailed into joining the EU on the basis that to trade with it we had to allow a situation in which we couldn't manage our own trade balance with it using tarrifs in addition to handing over massive amounts of sovereignty as part of the conditions.That is why trading with the EU is different and always has been in being a trading relationship based on blackmail and a domestic government that is all too keen to go along with it.Having said that we're also now in a similar situation in the form of the global free market economy in which again the government seems haapy to run a massive trade deficit for the benefit of those few who make a profit from it.Rather than manage our trade balance using import quotas and tarrifs to maintain at least trade balance for the benefit of the country as a whole.

Edited by XJ Flyer on Tuesday 2nd December 16:51

[RYH64E]

Scuffers said:

we were talking exports, but OK, imports, well, if Germany want to keep selling us cars, then a deal will need to be done, and let's face it, nobody is going to jeopardize the trade we have now over some EU political rhetoric, we are VAG/Merc/BMW's biggest customers outside of the US, you really think they will risk our business?

we import way more from the EU than export to it, simple economics will dictate.

One country's export is another country's import, in this case I was comparing the difference between an EU country (us currently, them in the future) importing products from another EU country (us currently) and a non-EU country (us in the future). Intra EU trade is much easier than dealing with a non-EU country which is what UKIP want us to become.

And I see we're back to the 'they need us more than we need them' argument, which is wrong on two counts. Firstly, their loss will be spread between 27 countries each of whom would jeopordise a single export market, whereas we stand to jeoopardise 27 export markets and our loss is ours alone. Secondly, if they won't bow to our demands to keep us in the EU why on earth would they bend over when we've left? Principles such as free movement of labour (Polish, Romanian etc immigration in other words) are fundamental to the EU Constitution, there's no way they will allow us to close our borders to people and retain free access to their markets, and if we can't close our borders what's the point of leaving? Switzerland has had to retain open borders and comply with pretty much all EU legislation in order to retain free access to the EU market, why should we get a better deal?

[XJ Flyer]

RYH64E said:

Scuffers said:

we were talking exports, but OK, imports, well, if Germany want to keep selling us cars, then a deal will need to be done, and let's face it, nobody is going to jeopardize the trade we have now over some EU political rhetoric, we are VAG/Merc/BMW's biggest customers outside of the US, you really think they will risk our business?

we import way more from the EU than export to it, simple economics will dictate.

One country's export is another country's import, in this case I was comparing the difference between an EU country (us currently, them in the future) importing products from another EU country (us currently) and a non-EU country (us in the future). Intra EU trade is much easier than dealing with a non-EU country which is what UKIP want us to become.

And I see we're back to the 'they need us more than we need them' argument, which is wrong on two counts. Firstly, their loss will be spread between 27 countries each of whom would jeopordise a single export market, whereas we stand to jeoopardise 27 export markets and our loss is ours alone. Secondly, if they won't bow to our demands to keep us in the EU why on earth would they bend over when we've left? Principles such as free movement of labour (Polish, Romanian etc immigration in other words) are fundamental to the EU Constitution, there's no way they will allow us to close our borders to people and retain free access to their markets, and if we can't close our borders what's the point of leaving? Switzerland has had to retain open borders and comply with pretty much all EU legislation in order to retain free access to the EU market, why should we get a better deal?

I think you've missed the point that we are in trade deficit with the EU as a whole IE all of it.Asssuming that we have trade balance with any specific EU state then we would still obviously be better off out of it so that we can arrange our own trade with that specific EU state.If the EU deny access to that market then it is time for a tit for tat trade war that again would prove the point that 'they' definitely 'need' to trade with 'us' more then 'we' need to trade with 'them'.In general the pro EU trade argument is all based on the benefits for the few who make something out of trading with the Cartel than the many in the form of the country as a whole.IE the trade deficit figures don't lie unlike the pro EU cause.

[otolith]

XJ Flyer said:

The former fact answers the question of the latter.Before we joined the EU we were in trade surplus not deficit.We were effectively blackmailed into joining the EU on the basis that to trade with it we had to allow a situation in which we couldn't manage our own trade balance with it using tarrifs in addition to handing over massive amounts of sovereignty as part of the conditions.That is why trading with the EU is different and always has been in being a trading relationship based on blackmail and a domestic government that is all too keen to go along with it.

[XJ Flyer]

RYH64E said:

In the case of Switzerland, in order to maintain access to the free trade area they've had to sign up to pretty much all of the EU legislation, including the free movement of labour (also known as the immigration problem). Whilst you might want the free trade area with no strings attached it's unlikely to be on offer, so what then?

Unlike Switzerland we are much better placed to win a trade war with the EU if the EU want to push the matter to that point.On that basis if we vote to leave no ifs no buts we're out and if they don't like it and want to make a trade war of it then bring it on.

[RYH64E]

XJ Flyer said:

I think you've missed the point...

The EU is made up of 27 member states and us, if and when it comes to agreeing a deal with the UK each of those other member states will vote according to their own self interest not that of the EU as a whole. So if France thinks they will be better of by screwing the UK, for example if they think that they might persuade Nissan to relocate some UK based manufacturing to France, then they won't help us. If Germany thinks that they might poach a big chunk of our Financial Services industry then they won't vote to help us. If Poland thinks that we are screwing their ex-pat workers then they won't vote in our interests either. The Spanish wouldn't lift a finger to help us even if it were in their interests to do so (and neither would France). Greece, Portugal, Romania etc probably don't much care either way, but they all have a vote on any deal with the UK and I can think of no good reason why they would support us.

It all comes down to politics, and there are very few politicians in Europe who could persuade their electorate that doing a deal with the UK is a good idea, much more likely they would vote to throw us to the wolves and fight over the scraps (scraps being our financial services industry and what's left of the manufacturing sector, especially the automotive plants who need free access to the EU market).

[s2art]

RYH64E said:

XJ Flyer said:

I think you've missed the point...

The EU is made up of 27 member states and us, if and when it comes to agreeing a deal with the UK each of those other member states will vote according to their own self interest not that of the EU as a whole. So if France thinks they will be better of by screwing the UK, for example if they think that they might persuade Nissan to relocate some UK based manufacturing to France, then they won't help us. If Germany thinks that they might poach a big chunk of our Financial Services industry then they won't vote to help us. If Poland thinks that we are screwing their ex-pat workers then they won't vote in our interests either. The Spanish wouldn't lift a finger to help us even if it were in their interests to do so (and neither would France). Greece, Portugal, Romania etc probably don't much care either way, but they all have a vote on any deal with the UK and I can think of no good reason why they would support us.

It all comes down to politics, and there are very few politicians in Europe who could persuade their electorate that doing a deal with the UK is a good idea, much more likely they would vote to throw us to the wolves and fight over the scraps (scraps being our financial services industry and what's left of the manufacturing sector, especially the automotive plants who need free access to the EU market).

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island. If the EU will do a trade deal with the USA, then will sure as hell do a trade deal with the UK.

[RYH64E]

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island.

Do you really believe that load of bks? There's more chance of the Tooth Fairy riding to the rescue.

[s2art]

RYH64E said:

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island.

Do you really believe that load of bks? There's more chance of the Tooth Fairy riding to the rescue.

Yup. Money talks and Germany is the paymaster. It was ever thus.

[XJ Flyer]

RYH64E said:

XJ Flyer said:

I think you've missed the point...

The EU is made up of 27 member states and us, if and when it comes to agreeing a deal with the UK each of those other member states will vote according to their own self interest not that of the EU as a whole. So if France thinks they will be better of by screwing the UK, for example if they think that they might persuade Nissan to relocate some UK based manufacturing to France, then they won't help us. If Germany thinks that they might poach a big chunk of our Financial Services industry then they won't vote to help us. If Poland thinks that we are screwing their ex-pat workers then they won't vote in our interests either. The Spanish wouldn't lift a finger to help us even if it were in their interests to do so (and neither would France). Greece, Portugal, Romania etc probably don't much care either way, but they all have a vote on any deal with the UK and I can think of no good reason why they would support us.

It all comes down to politics, and there are very few politicians in Europe who could persuade their electorate that doing a deal with the UK is a good idea, much more likely they would vote to throw us to the wolves and fight over the scraps (scraps being our financial services industry and what's left of the manufacturing sector, especially the automotive plants who need free access to the EU market).

Do you really think that we wouldn't actually have a stronger automotive manufacturing sector if we closed our market to anyone who isn't prepared to build cars here.So yes let Nissan relocate in which case BMW,Merc and all the rest including Nissan get kicked out of here and we get back to actually manufacturing cars here again.Instead of being just an offshore assembly operation with a built in trade advantage for the EU.If only we had done that in 1973.The relevant bit for the topic being that unlike Shore I don't think that Farage has the sphericals for that type of fight.

[XJ Flyer]

s2art said:

RYH64E said:

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island.

Do you really believe that load of bks? There's more chance of the Tooth Fairy riding to the rescue.

Yup. Money talks and Germany is the paymaster. It was ever thus.

As such Germany is the EU's weak link if the EU wants to get into a trade war with us.Germany needs our market more than we need its.Which makes such a trade war even easier for us on the basis that if the EU hits us then we retaliate against German imports.Which is all it would take.Although expanding that to Sweden amongst others could also only help in getting our automotive manufacturing sector back online at least.

[King Cnut]

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island. If the EU will do a trade deal with the USA, then will sure as hell do a trade deal with the UK.

If the EU does a trade deal with the US; with the consequence of opening up a much bigger market for Mercedes etc with lower import prices to over 250m Americans, the Germans won't give a stuff about the shrinking market for higher priced Mercs in the piffling UK.

We'll end up like kids with our noses pressed up against the sweet shop window, driving cars built by the modern equivalent of British Leyland.

[s2art]

King said:

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island. If the EU will do a trade deal with the USA, then will sure as hell do a trade deal with the UK.

If the EU does a trade deal with the US; with the consequence of opening up a much bigger market for Mercedes etc with lower import prices to over 250m Americans, the Germans won't give a stuff about the shrinking market for higher priced Mercs in the piffling UK.

We'll end up like kids with our noses pressed up against the sweet shop window, driving cars built by the modern equivalent of British Leyland.

You underestimate how big a market the UK is to Germany. Note the UK is Germany's largest trade partner, not the USA.

[XJ Flyer]

King said:

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island. If the EU will do a trade deal with the USA, then will sure as hell do a trade deal with the UK.

If the EU does a trade deal with the US; with the consequence of opening up a much bigger market for Mercedes etc with lower import prices to over 250m Americans, the Germans won't give a stuff about the shrinking market for higher priced Mercs in the piffling UK.

We'll end up like kids with our noses pressed up against the sweet shop window, driving cars built by the modern equivalent of British Leyland.

Is the choice of an XE or XFR or Range Rover or go without so difficult in that case.Although admittedly we would have to employ more people to provide replacement transmissions.Although the idea of British jobs for British workers obviously won't suit the socialists.

[TKF]

s2art said:

You underestimate how big a market the UK is to Germany. Note the UK is Germany's largest trade partner, not the USA.

And that's in no small part because we're both in the EU with all the associated simplicity that comes with trading within the EU.

In it we're a partner. Out of it we're simply a competitor. We'll see how they treat the Insel Affe if/when that happens.

[XJ Flyer]

TKF said:

s2art said:

You underestimate how big a market the UK is to Germany. Note the UK is Germany's largest trade partner, not the USA.

And that's in no small part because we're both in the EU with all the associated simplicity that comes with trading within the EU.

In it we're a partner. Out of it we're simply a competitor. We'll see how they treat the Insel Affe if/when that happens.

No in it we're just mugs effectively contributing to a foreign aid scam which makes Germany richer at our expense.A situation which Germany is not surprisingly more than happy with,so long as it lasts.While a 'partnership' would obviously involve a situation in which we have at least trade balance with Germany and the EU as a whole.It also wouldn't involve any need for transfer of sovereignty including the right to impose trade tarrifs if/as required to maintain that trade balance situation.

[King Cnut]

s2art said:

King said:

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island. If the EU will do a trade deal with the USA, then will sure as hell do a trade deal with the UK.

If the EU does a trade deal with the US; with the consequence of opening up a much bigger market for Mercedes etc with lower import prices to over 250m Americans, the Germans won't give a stuff about the shrinking market for higher priced Mercs in the piffling UK.

We'll end up like kids with our noses pressed up against the sweet shop window, driving cars built by the modern equivalent of British Leyland.

You underestimate how big a market the UK is to Germany. Note the UK is Germany's largest trade partner, not the USA.

Not at all, you underestimate how big a market the US compared to the UK. Give the Germans a sniff of that market and we'd get dumped faster than a fat girl with a moustache.

[BGARK]

CamMoreRon said:

Nonsense, they are simply a list of tasks that would help the country and its people./quote]


Cough.. IN YOUR OPINION.

I think quite a lot of people would disagree with you on that.

Which bit do you disagree with and can you explain why?

[XJ Flyer]

King said:

s2art said:

King said:

s2art said:

It probably doesnt matter much that most of the member states think. It will be Germany that decides (behind closed doors). And Germany cannot afford losing its export market to treasure island. If the EU will do a trade deal with the USA, then will sure as hell do a trade deal with the UK.

If the EU does a trade deal with the US; with the consequence of opening up a much bigger market for Mercedes etc with lower import prices to over 250m Americans, the Germans won't give a stuff about the shrinking market for higher priced Mercs in the piffling UK.

We'll end up like kids with our noses pressed up against the sweet shop window, driving cars built by the modern equivalent of British Leyland.

You underestimate how big a market the UK is to Germany. Note the UK is Germany's largest trade partner, not the USA.

Not at all, you underestimate how big a market the US compared to the UK. Give the Germans a sniff of that market and we'd get dumped faster than a fat girl with a moustache.

The relevant calculation in that case would be the benefits of a closed UK domestic market to benefit domestic manufacturers as opposed to keeping our EU trade deficit while still having to compete with German products in the US market.IE getting rid of our EU trade deficit is worth more to us than any arguable benefits of our relatively small trade surplus with the US and/or EU trade agreement with the US.Which knowing the German attitudes to imports would still end up with the situation of the US eventually having to pull the plug.Because it would inevitably just end up with a similar trade deficit situation with the EU and particularly Germany as we are with it now anyway.The fact is anything other than trade balance is just a form of foreign aid from the deficit holder to the surplus holder and Germany doesn't like to be in a situation of trade balance in most cases it only likes the word surplus.

www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html


www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of...

Edited by XJ Flyer on Tuesday 2nd December 20:36