Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

[HundredthIdiot]

Tartan Pixie said:

The truth is that full banking union means permanent subsidy from the richer nations to the poorer ones.

Can you explain this please?

[Digga]

HundredthIdiot said:

Tartan Pixie said:

The truth is that full banking union means permanent subsidy from the richer nations to the poorer ones.

Can you explain this please?

In essence, once fully integrated, the infrastructure and welfare of, say, Greece within the EU, would be as secure as is that of, say, Middlesborough in the UK. It no longer has to pay for it's own upkeep, but the broader pot pays for it. Inevetably, this must result in higher tax takes, or lower standards of PS spending elsewhere than was previously the case. Or massive debt.

As for the EU, Orwell and his contemporaries were prescient in predicting the rise not of capitalism or communism, but of 'the managers' - those whose sole ambition is to rule.

[marky911]

loafer123 said:

Honestly, life is too short to live in a bunker.

I can't tell you what to do, but as long as you haven't borrowed too much, and have some money for a rainy day set aside, I would just get on with your life.

You missed the really scary bit when the entire financial system nearly went "pop". I was pretty well informed at the time and I can tell you that life is alot less risky now.

I wouldn't care to be Spanish or Greek at the moment, though.

Morning loafer,
yeah you're right. I usually take the approach of "All we can do is keep working hard, don't be daft with debt and hope for the best as the rest is out of our hands."

I was just genuinely shocked at our debt. More than Greece and Spain.

Anyway, I wont sell all my possesions yet.
Cheers.

[Jaged]

Thanks TP for in depth reply.

My next thought is that CMD can see the USofE coming and that frightens his puppet masters.

So is the promise of an IN - OUT vote, purely a political tatic to ensure the "City" is not gobbled up by the Europeans?
Not him giving the UK a democratic option??

[craig7l]

a good case for stability of the EU over the short term, in the shackles of hope for the poor countries to survive with help from central.
In the UK we have middlesborough, wigan, stoke to name a few. They support the same elected government, the same flag, the same language, the same football team and share a thousand year of history.

The pride i feel runs too deep in spain, greece and portugal to operate under the same terms when they realise it aint ever coming back in that part of the world - period!

Its one thing to have an elected government that speaks the same language telling you there is no hope in your area, but unelected foreigners.?

independance has been strived for since gondwanaland started to drift millions of years ago.

i predict the "next" stage to arrive, but the question is when..?

[Mermaid]

Gary11 said:

Amazing isnt it 60% of all consumer spend is in supermarkets nowdays,shopping and utilities are just consuming to much per family there is nothing left, fuel has sneakily gon up 5p per litre due to the pounds slip apparently.Not good news.
G

Retail product sales are down.

Food prices up, with less horsepower.

Energy prices up

Long term interest rates rising

Hello inflation & a lower standard of living.

[turbobloke]

Mermaid said:

Gary11 said:

Amazing isnt it 60% of all consumer spend is in supermarkets nowdays,shopping and utilities are just consuming to much per family there is nothing left, fuel has sneakily gon up 5p per litre due to the pounds slip apparently.Not good news.
G

Retail product sales are down.

Food prices up, with less horsepower.

Energy prices up

Long term interest rates rising

Hello inflation & a lower standard of living.

Medium- to long-term friendship ahead following the hello

[Mermaid]

turbobloke said:

Medium- to long-term friendship ahead following the hello

Erode debt I suppose.

[turbobloke]

Mermaid said:

turbobloke said:

Medium- to long-term friendship ahead following the hello

Erode debt I suppose.

Financial repression has also said hello

[Crusoe]

Soften the Germans up for a debt union? Are there enough in trouble to swing a vote in their favour?

German Paper said:

After the War of Independence, the United States looked a lot like the euro zone, with some states crippled by debt. In the end, under a proposal by Alexander Hamilton, the federal government assumed all the debt, securing the country's creditworthiness. A new report argues it could be a good model for Europe.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/early-u...

[JensenA]

The Euro won't fail, it can't. Basically the Euro is a 'Deutsch Mark'. All the major EU Financial institutions are in Germany. Germany controls the Euro, will ensure the Euro survives, and will control the EU.
If the Euro really is in crisis why is it doing so well on the exchange markets?

[Mermaid]

JensenA said:

The Euro won't fail, it can't. Basically the Euro is a 'Deutsch Mark'. All the major EU Financial institutions are in Germany. Germany controls the Euro, will ensure the Euro survives, and will control the EU.
If the Euro really is in crisis why is it doing so well on the exchange markets?

Eurobonds in practice.

[Irish]

An American industrialist asked to buy French plant shoots from the hip:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

[Digga]

Irish said:

An American industrialist asked to buy French plant shoots from the hip:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

I have close dealings with another multi-national firm, in a not too distantly related business, which has exactly the same opinion and has shut all but it's most rudimentary office and warehousing operations in the country.

I have no idea what the powers that be consider sanity in this regard. I have no idea why the Troika are not forcing these sorts of issues out into the open in Greece - an oter example of idiotic policy there being the compulsory E400 per month tax with any business must pay from day one, irrespective of revenue (let alone profits) in order to trade legally - in order to create any chance of restoring the economy.

[HundredthIdiot]

Digga said:

In essence, once fully integrated, the infrastructure and welfare of, say, Greece within the EU, would be as secure as is that of, say, Middlesborough in the UK. It no longer has to pay for it's own upkeep, but the broader pot pays for it. Inevetably, this must result in higher tax takes, or lower standards of PS spending elsewhere than was previously the case. Or massive debt.

But how does a *banking* union secure Greek welfare and infrastructure?

[Art0ir]

£ slips further as Mervyn and Co. squabble

Personally, my position hasn't changed since I started watching this thread. Enough of the Q.E., enough of the manipulated interest rates. Let the housing market correct itself now or watch it all crash again.

[Digga]

HundredthIdiot said:

Digga said:

In essence, once fully integrated, the infrastructure and welfare of, say, Greece within the EU, would be as secure as is that of, say, Middlesborough in the UK. It no longer has to pay for it's own upkeep, but the broader pot pays for it. Inevetably, this must result in higher tax takes, or lower standards of PS spending elsewhere than was previously the case. Or massive debt.

But how does a *banking* union secure Greek welfare and infrastructure?

Cross-guarantees of debts.

[HundredthIdiot]

Digga said:

Cross-guarantees of debts.

But it only guarantees bank debts, not sovereign debts. Wait, I guess since banks hold a lot of sovereign debt then technically a sovereign debt writedown could be used to magic away government debt, but that's monetary financing and I can't see a European banking regulator agreeing to it.

Writing that sentence has confirmed that I have no idea what the ultimate consequences of a banking union are.

[Art0ir]

HundredthIdiot said:

Digga said:

Cross-guarantees of debts.

But it only guarantees bank debts, not sovereign debts. Wait, I guess since banks hold a lot of sovereign debt then technically a sovereign debt writedown could be used to magic away government debt, but that's monetary financing and I can't see a European banking regulator agreeing to it.

Writing that sentence has confirmed that I have no idea what the ultimate consequences of a banking union are.

Read about how the US works. That's what Brussells is pushing for. An EU Federal Superstate.

[Andy Zarse]

JensenA said:

The Euro won't fail, it can't. Basically the Euro is a 'Deutsch Mark'. All the major EU Financial institutions are in Germany. Germany controls the Euro, will ensure the Euro survives, and will control the EU.
If the Euro really is in crisis why is it doing so well on the exchange markets?

Easy; the false paradigm created by SuperMario and his big gob, writing cheques he hasn't yet been asked to present. He's played a great game tactically, but the test of his commitment will come when peripheral bond yields start rising again...

Still, turn the question round, can you tell us why if the Euro is doing so well on the exchange markets are the EZ economies doing so utterly appallingly?