Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Digga]

AstonZagato said:

Interesting article on the political implications of Brexit.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/st...

It makes some very valid points. I do believe the significance of Brexit is very much misunderstood.

[Steffan]

Digga is absolutely on the button, once again IMO, in reminding us all that the fundamental changes both within  Britain itself and within the EU and the World  economy, that must follow the Brexit vote by the UK, are going to be absolutely massive. These will permanently change both the  position of the UK and many other countries, As he suggested these changes may be so great, that it is currently very difficult indeed, to estimate what the long term consequences will be for all of us.

The New Statesman article does outline very effectively something of the possible level of changes that the Brexit decision will have upon the UK and the EU. This will in all probability be the greatest change there has been in the British economy since the end of  World War II. 

Turning to some of the other happenings that could well impact upon the EU and indeed all the members of the EU this article from the BBC suggest that there are very serious concerns indeed about the Italian  banks see:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708357

I am bound to say that I think Andrea Ledsome has  righty recognised that  she could not win against the favourite, Theresa May. Seems sensible to me to forestall two months of delay in the new administration taking over and I  do think the avoidance of delay and the doubt that would have caused, will be beneficial to the Country and in getting the Brexit process started. 

There are some mutterings within the conservative party that the party members have been denied a vote but, needs must when the devil rides I think?  The delay would have been very unhelpful and I do think that Ms May was pretty well beyond being seriously challenged.

All in all it's going to be a very interesting time watching Cameron pass onto pastures new and Osborne probably (IMO) no longer being Chancellor? If ever there was an event to illustrate the accuracy of the Wilson 1960's quip 'A week in politics is a very long time' this must be it!

I must just comment on the utter lunacy that the Labour Party is currently engaged upon? The Labour Party can only prat about like this because they have no useful role to fulfil, as they are currently demonstrating on a daily basis. I really do think we could see a major fall out within Labour and there could well a complete and permanent split  within Labour, as things are going, currently!

Personally I believe that Corbyn  will actually need the supports of 50 MPs to stand again, now that there is a real challenge.  I do not think he can muster that support. If he can, then given machinations of the Momentum element within the Labour party membership, I think he could well actually win the contest. 

You really could not make  this up! Quite the most extraordinary circumstances I have ever seen, in a political party in the UK. Shades of Derek Hatton and  the Militant Tendency! Hopefully without the heavy mob that accompanied that disaster.  Funny game politics, funny game!

[anonymous-user]

The legal position seems to be that Corbyn, as incumbent, has to be on the ballot. If that is true, Eagle will get slaughtered in the vote of members.

[Steffan]

jsf said:

The legal position seems to be that Corbyn, as incumbent, has to be on the ballot. If that is true, Eagle will get slaughtered in the vote of members.

Indeed.

Question is does Corbyn need the 50 MPs to support his candidacy? No doubt Eagle woud get slaughtered but I am not convinced he can stand without the required Support. If he does stand and wins then he cannot actually form either a shadow cabinet or mount an effective oppostion. Very funny game politics, very funny game?

I will watch with interest. Where the Labour Party will end up I really do not know!!

[Googie]

Steffan said:

jsf said:

The legal position seems to be that Corbyn, as incumbent, has to be on the ballot. If that is true, Eagle will get slaughtered in the vote of members.

Indeed.

Question is does Corbyn need the 50 MPs to support his candidacy? No doubt Eagle woud get slaughtered but I am not convinced he can stand without the required Support. If he does stand and wins then he cannot actually form either a shadow cabinet or mount an effective oppostion. Very funny game politics, very funny game?

I will watch with interest. Where the Labour Party will end up I really do not know!!

Caught the end of an interview with George Galloway on Radio 5 were he dismissed Eagle as a serious candidate and that the likelihood was that a split is being planned at present by the more serious players such as Benn.Cooper,Burnham et al

[Steffan]

Googie said:

Steffan said:

jsf said:

The legal position seems to be that Corbyn, as incumbent, has to be on the ballot. If that is true, Eagle will get slaughtered in the vote of members.

Indeed.

Question is does Corbyn need the 50 MPs to support his candidacy? No doubt Eagle woud get slaughtered but I am not convinced he can stand without the required Support. If he does stand and wins then he cannot actually form either a shadow cabinet or mount an effective oppostion. Very funny game politics, very funny game?

I will watch with interest. Where the Labour Party will end up I really do not know!!

Caught the end of an interview with George Galloway on Radio 5 were he dismissed Eagle as a serious candidate and that the likelihood was that a split is being planned at present by the more serious players such as Benn.Cooper,Burnham et al

Indeed, GG does suggest a cunning plan. All depends on whether Corbyn can get onto the ballot I think. If he does then I do think he will walk the result. What happens then is anybody's guess I think. If he does not then Eagle will presumably win? Politics is a very rough game , indeed! Not long before we know the answer?

The real tragedy is that currently there is no effective opposition nor has there been for many months. The country deserves better.

[LongQ]

Not sure if a Google Translate URL will work here but let's see.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&...

If not here's a ZH article with a link to the original German Sunday report.

The gist is that the Deutsche Bank's chief economist thinks European banks need a 150 billion Euro bailout.

[LongQ]

Steffan said:

The real tragedy is that currently there is no effective opposition nor has there been for many months. The country deserves better.

I would agree Steffan - in fact go further and say the country has not had an effective Government for months, indeed years and possibly decades.

On the other hand, based on the quality of candidates putting themselves forward across the board, a lack of effectiveness is no great surprise and, sadly, might be a good thing compared with what they might stumble into otherwise.

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

Not sure if a Google Translate URL will work here but let's see.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&...

If not here's a ZH article with a link to the original German Sunday report.

The gist is that the Deutsche Bank's chief economist thinks European banks need a 150 billion Euro bailout.

Not looking at all good for European banks I think? The continued stagnation within the economies in the EU was bound to cause real probems. Quite how the governments can authorise such a bail out without transgressing the EU dictats I have no idea. Not I suspect have the EU. Interesting conundrum not easily addressed.

[LongQ]

Steffan said:

LongQ said:

Not sure if a Google Translate URL will work here but let's see.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&...

If not here's a ZH article with a link to the original German Sunday report.

The gist is that the Deutsche Bank's chief economist thinks European banks need a 150 billion Euro bailout.

Not looking at all good for European banks I think? The continued stagnation within the economies in the EU was bound to cause real probems. Quite how the governments can authorise such a bail out without transgressing the EU dictats I have no idea. Not I suspect have the EU. Interesting conundrum not easily addressed.

The French would know how to deal with it. They are good at interpreting rules and regulations in the most suitable manner.

I note that there seems to be some divergence of opinions currently between "Europe" and the IMF, notably over how to do anything at all with Greece.

That is sort of interesting.

I note too that Madame L'Orange may be facing a little bit of a problem on home soil somewhat connected to her time in politics before she headed out to wider and un-elected pastures.

One feels that there there may be some time filling going on there which checking out each others' strength of purpose. I would imagine a suitable mutually beneficial accommodation will be reached during Extra Time. The idea of a Penalty Shoot Out has to be unthinkable.

[Digga]

I think it is stunning and highly pertinent that neither of the main UK political parties appear to have had any real contingency plan for Brexit, let alone have any understanding of the political dynamics at play in the UK. It really does seem as though those in the metropolitan media bubbles have isolated themselves from reality; they are still in denial and disconnect.

[wc98]

Digga said:

I think it is stunning and highly pertinent that neither of the main UK political parties appear to have had any real contingency plan for Brexit, let alone have any understanding of the political dynamics at play in the UK. It really does seem as though those in the metropolitan media bubbles have isolated themselves from reality; they are still in denial and disconnect.

it is very telling indeed. symptomatic of the politics of blair i feel, where one or two strong leader types build a team of far less able individuals around them ,making complete control far easier. works after a fashion until the proverbial hits the fan and the narcissist in charge has to move aside. the current state of the labour party and the conservative leadership "race" has shown just how shallow the current talent pool in british politics is.

there has been no other time in the recent past where the country has been so ripe for a new political party offering some radically different ideas . ideally it would have not one single ppe graduate among its ranks . i personally think there is a fair chance of two such parties emerging.one formed from the split in labour ranks which will just be more of the same and another from the remnants of ukip,aaron banks has already said as much. will be interesting to see whether either can gain any traction with the populace.

i may be wrong, but i think the vote to leave was only the first of many changes a large swathe of the population would like to see.

[LongQ]

Digga said:

I think it is stunning and highly pertinent that neither of the main UK political parties appear to have had any real contingency plan for Brexit, let alone have any understanding of the political dynamics at play in the UK. It really does seem as though those in the metropolitan media bubbles have isolated themselves from reality; they are still in denial and disconnect.

As I recall London was a strong Remain camp.

Hardly anyone in the whole of the Continent thought that anyone would try to check out of Hotel Europe. There are barely any mechanisms to allow that to happen.

One of the many problems with the Leave campaign is that they recognised that the vote was always going to be based on an emotional response - as so many things political actually are - and had no obvious plan for executing an exit in that event. Nor had they really thought it through. Likewise the European bureaucracy. We surely all remember Juncker smilingly saying that he had been promised that the result was a foregone conclusion for staying.

Probably some of the banks and a few large companies have some back of a notepad ideas about things that might happen in a business sense but I doubt any would be considered more that "possible" as opposed to "probable".

Attempting to foresee how the game may be played out was never likely to be an easy, enjoyable or immediately rewarding task. So it became no task.

There is always Flexcit.

http://www.eureferendum.com/themarketsolution.pdf

[Steffan]

wc98 said:

Digga said:

I think it is stunning and highly pertinent that neither of the main UK political parties appear to have had any real contingency plan for Brexit, let alone have any understanding of the political dynamics at play in the UK. It really does seem as though those in the metropolitan media bubbles have isolated themselves from reality; they are still in denial and disconnect.

it is very telling indeed. symptomatic of the politics of blair i feel, where one or two strong leader types build a team of far less able individuals around them ,making complete control far easier. works after a fashion until the proverbial hits the fan and the narcissist in charge has to move aside. the current state of the labour party and the conservative leadership "race" has shown just how shallow the current talent pool in british politics is.

there has been no other time in the recent past where the country has been so ripe for a new political party offering some radically different ideas . ideally it would have not one single ppe graduate among its ranks . i personally think there is a fair chance of two such parties emerging.one formed from the split in labour ranks which will just be more of the same and another from the remnants of ukip,aaron banks has already said as much. will be interesting to see whether either can gain any traction with the populace.

i may be wrong, but i think the  ,vote to leave was only the first of many changes a large swathe of the population would like to see.

LongQ said:

Digga said:

I think it is stunning and highly pertinent that neither of the main UK political parties appear to have had any real contingency plan for Brexit, let alone have any understanding of the political dynamics at play in the UK. It really does seem as though those in the metropolitan media bubbles have isolated themselves from reality; they are still in denial and disconnect.

As I recall London was a strong Remain camp.

Hardly anyone in the whole of the Continent thought that anyone would try to check out of Hotel Europe. There are barely any mechanisms to allow that to happen.

One of the many problems with the Leave campaign is that they recognised that the vote was always going to be based on an emotional response - as so many things political actually are - and had no obvious plan for executing an exit in that event. Nor had they really thought it through. Likewise the European bureaucracy. We surely all remember Juncker smilingly saying that he had been promised that the result was a foregone conclusion for staying.

Probably some of the banks and a few large companies have some back of a notepad ideas about things that might happen in a business sense but I doubt any would be considered more that "possible" as opposed to "probable".

Attempting to foresee how the game may be played out was never likely to be an easy, enjoyable or immediately rewarding task. So it became no task.

There is always Flexcit.

http://www.eureferendum.com/themarketsolution.pdf

Three excellent, structured, informative posts (Digga twice but it was a bloody good post ) that is precisely what I  hoped could be achieved by this thread!  

The contribution from LongQ really does  have a real sting in  the tail and for all the repeated plaintiff meanderings, emanating from pretty ineffective and ill informed UK  politicians, all handwringing daily because their personal gravy  train has been scuppered, and bemoaning their  fate, but producing nothing seek useful  at all, at least somebody is on the case!

Here is an excellent and informative article , which  really does enable a thorough understanding of the steps that need to  be taken, by the UK, to secure a cost effective (a phrase that delights all Accountants) withdrawal from the EU, to be clearly set out. I have yet to see a better effort anywhere else. The new government would do well to make  this essential reading for all the new minsters! It is not perfect but it is a lot better that the utter, drivel, that  the UK media can concoct for themselves!

Bloody good show IMO. Britain must  gird up and really get into the detail that is critical to success for the UK. As others have suggested above there are very likely to be a number of other unexpected decisions by the UK electorate.  The extent to which 600+ politicians were all totally out of touch is a dreadful condemnation, of politics, as it has become, in the UK!

I think mood of the Country is very different now that the schism between the electorate and the politics today in the UK has been exposed for all to see. No going back, and great any more surprises coming I think. Hurray!!

[Mr Whippy]

Steffan said:

wc98 said:

Digga said:

I think it is stunning and highly pertinent that neither of the main UK political parties appear to have had any real contingency plan for Brexit, let alone have any understanding of the political dynamics at play in the UK. It really does seem as though those in the metropolitan media bubbles have isolated themselves from reality; they are still in denial and disconnect.

it is very telling indeed. symptomatic of the politics of blair i feel, where one or two strong leader types build a team of far less able individuals around them ,making complete control far easier. works after a fashion until the proverbial hits the fan and the narcissist in charge has to move aside. the current state of the labour party and the conservative leadership "race" has shown just how shallow the current talent pool in british politics is.

there has been no other time in the recent past where the country has been so ripe for a new political party offering some radically different ideas . ideally it would have not one single ppe graduate among its ranks . i personally think there is a fair chance of two such parties emerging.one formed from the split in labour ranks which will just be more of the same and another from the remnants of ukip,aaron banks has already said as much. will be interesting to see whether either can gain any traction with the populace.

i may be wrong, but i think the  ,vote to leave was only the first of many changes a large swathe of the population would like to see.

LongQ said:

Digga said:

I think it is stunning and highly pertinent that neither of the main UK political parties appear to have had any real contingency plan for Brexit, let alone have any understanding of the political dynamics at play in the UK. It really does seem as though those in the metropolitan media bubbles have isolated themselves from reality; they are still in denial and disconnect.

As I recall London was a strong Remain camp.

Hardly anyone in the whole of the Continent thought that anyone would try to check out of Hotel Europe. There are barely any mechanisms to allow that to happen.

One of the many problems with the Leave campaign is that they recognised that the vote was always going to be based on an emotional response - as so many things political actually are - and had no obvious plan for executing an exit in that event. Nor had they really thought it through. Likewise the European bureaucracy. We surely all remember Juncker smilingly saying that he had been promised that the result was a foregone conclusion for staying.

Probably some of the banks and a few large companies have some back of a notepad ideas about things that might happen in a business sense but I doubt any would be considered more that "possible" as opposed to "probable".

Attempting to foresee how the game may be played out was never likely to be an easy, enjoyable or immediately rewarding task. So it became no task.

There is always Flexcit.

http://www.eureferendum.com/themarketsolution.pdf

Three excellent, structured, informative posts (Digga twice but it was a bloody good post ) that is precisely what I  hoped could be achieved by this thread!  

The contribution from LongQ really does  have a real sting in  the tail and for all the repeated plaintiff meanderings, emanating from pretty ineffective and ill informed UK  politicians, all handwringing daily because their personal gravy  train has been scuppered, and bemoaning their  fate, but producing nothing seek useful  at all, at least somebody is on the case!

Here is an excellent and informative article , which  really does enable a thorough understanding of the steps that need to  be taken, by the UK, to secure a cost effective (a phrase that delights all Accountants) withdrawal from the EU, to be clearly set out. I have yet to see a better effort anywhere else. The new government would do well to make  this essential reading for all the new minsters! It is not perfect but it is a lot better that the utter, drivel, that  the UK media can concoct for themselves!

Bloody good show IMO. Britain must  gird up and really get into the detail that is critical to success for the UK. As others have suggested above there are very likely to be a number of other unexpected decisions by the UK electorate.  The extent to which 600+ politicians were all totally out of touch is a dreadful condemnation, of politics, as it has become, in the UK!

I think mood of the Country is very different now that the schism between the electorate and the politics today in the UK has been exposed for all to see. No going back, and great any more surprises coming I think. Hurray!!

I think the schism we see is by design. Divide and conquer would seem to have worked brilliantly here. All our problems are political ones, and we can now feel like we're making a difference again. But it's just the same old crap.

The banking and crony vampires that really run the country continue to be excused and shrouded from the results of their actions.

When I can vote for things that make a difference I'll be happier... but so far politicians for the last 25 years of my voting life seem to have made no difference whatsoever... just the same bullst with a different name.

[Digga]

Mr Whippy said:

I think the schism we see is by design. Divide and conquer would seem to have worked brilliantly here. All our problems are political ones, and we can now feel like we're making a difference again. But it's just the same old crap.

The banking and crony vampires that really run the country continue to be excused and shrouded from the results of their actions.

When I can vote for things that make a difference I'll be happier... but so far politicians for the last 25 years of my voting life seem to have made no difference whatsoever... just the same bullst with a different name.

To an extent, I agree, but the fact that things like the crony appointment of Barroso by Goldman Sachs are being more widely reported and questioned in the media does seem to suggest things are gradually altering. part of what a lot of people are trying to vote against is the corruption and greed of 'big', be that politics, business or banking.

[-Pete-]

The unusual outcome is due to the unusual circumstances - one man/woman one vote and the majority wins.
It's the only time in my life I got to vote believing I might actually make a difference to the outcome.
In elections most people are not in marginal seats, and those that are have a 'realistic' choice between two parties who aren't really that different - whatever noises they make.
Anything else is a protest vote which is ignored by the main parties, hence the disaffection of the populace with the Status Quo.

[LongQ]

-Pete- said:

The unusual outcome is due to the unusual circumstances - one man/woman one vote and the majority wins.
It's the only time in my life I got to vote believing I might actually make a difference to the outcome.
In elections most people are not in marginal seats, and those that are have a 'realistic' choice between two parties who aren't really that different - whatever noises they make.
Anything else is a protest vote which is ignored by the main parties, hence the disaffection of the populace with the Status Quo.

Sound points.

Sadly I suspect this only works with very simple questions.

Anything more complex or with more options you end up with proportional representation and that, as far as I have been able or willing to spend time observing, needs to be very carefully applied and fully understood if random chaos and constant turmoil of Government is to be avoided. Italian style for example.

On the other hand there are times when I wonder if perpetual turmoil and learning to work with it might just be considerably more effective as a social proposition.

[Digga]

-Pete- said:

Anything else is a protest vote which is ignored by the main parties, hence the disaffection of the populace with the Status Quo.

Significant point there. You are right.

[Mr Whippy]

Digga said:

Mr Whippy said:

I think the schism we see is by design. Divide and conquer would seem to have worked brilliantly here. All our problems are political ones, and we can now feel like we're making a difference again. But it's just the same old crap.

The banking and crony vampires that really run the country continue to be excused and shrouded from the results of their actions.

When I can vote for things that make a difference I'll be happier... but so far politicians for the last 25 years of my voting life seem to have made no difference whatsoever... just the same bullst with a different name.

To an extent, I agree, but the fact that things like the crony appointment of Barroso by Goldman Sachs are being more widely reported and questioned in the media does seem to suggest things are gradually altering. part of what a lot of people are trying to vote against is the corruption and greed of 'big', be that politics, business or banking.

I completely agree.

Tony Bliar said something about people voting against 'experts' as an issue needing to be 'rectified'

But if the experts represent cronies, and people vote the other way as the only way to express their desire to not have a crony government, then that is likely what we are seeing as you say!

Which is a good thing too.


I believe half the issue is politics and banking/economics have merged. Cronyism has provided the link. To remain fair democracy needs to seep into those areas of banking and economic policy making and decision making too.

Ie, a vote for those who work in the BofE.

If democracy keeps coming down to choosing between two parties who basically both toe the same crony friends list, but with a capitalist crony or socialist crony perspective, we're not going to get too far.

Dave