Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[turbobloke]

Mr Whippy said:

Tony Bliar said something about people voting against 'experts' as an issue needing to be 'rectified'

Which demonstrates that he still doesn't get it, and is still part of the problem he's blaming on people who do get it.

[Mr Whippy]

turbobloke said:

Mr Whippy said:

Tony Bliar said something about people voting against 'experts' as an issue needing to be 'rectified'

Which demonstrates that he still doesn't get it, and is still part of the problem he's blaming on people who do get it.

He never got it. Labour MPs and even many Labour supporters don't understand others conflicting points of views, they just assume they're stupid and wrong.

If someone is clearly there to serve themselves, they'll never change... infact the only road they seem to go down is getting worse!

[Andy Zarse]

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

Regular readers of this thread may recall that I have written before on the (in)competence of official economic data gatherers and the issues this leads to. My view is with the problems arise in Ireland by having so many non-domiciled companies who simply "book" business through Dublin in order to pay low corporate taxes. I suggest most of this amazing economic miracle has absolutely no bearing on real Irish GDP. So I suspect the Irish will be a bit more circumspect when it comes to issuing revising GNP, this metric probably giving a more balanced snapshot than GDP.

[anonymous-user]

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

That'll see a nice jump in their EU contribution then.

[Tony427]

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

Regular readers of this thread may recall that I have written before on the (in)competence of official economic data gatherers and the issues this leads to. My view is with the problems arise in Ireland by having so many non-domiciled companies who simply "book" business through Dublin in order to pay low corporate taxes. I suggest most of this amazing economic miracle has absolutely no bearing on real Irish GDP. So I suspect the Irish will be a bit more circumspect when it comes to issuing revising GNP, this metric probably giving a more balanced snapshot than GDP.

THe EU will be wanting a higher nett contribution as a result of this revision I suspect. Much as they did to our good selves when they included the proceeds of crime such as prostitution and drug dealing into the official UK GDP figures.

Cheers,

Tony
( buggar 3 minutes too late)

[LongQ]

Tony427 said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

Regular readers of this thread may recall that I have written before on the (in)competence of official economic data gatherers and the issues this leads to. My view is with the problems arise in Ireland by having so many non-domiciled companies who simply "book" business through Dublin in order to pay low corporate taxes. I suggest most of this amazing economic miracle has absolutely no bearing on real Irish GDP. So I suspect the Irish will be a bit more circumspect when it comes to issuing revising GNP, this metric probably giving a more balanced snapshot than GDP.

THe EU will be wanting a higher nett contribution as a result of this revision I suspect. Much as they did to our good selves when they included the proceeds of crime such as prostitution and drug dealing into the official UK GDP figures.

Cheers,

Tony
( buggar 3 minutes too late)

Was it Italy that discovered it had to add something like 17% to its GDP figures once the "dark" economy estimates were added in?

Can't have done the banking figures much good .... well, other than Burlyscojones who might possibly have been responsible for about half of that extra spend.

Edited by LongQ on Tuesday 12th July 19:43

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

Tony427 said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

Regular readers of this thread may recall that I have written before on the (in)competence of official economic data gatherers and the issues this leads to. My view is with the problems arise in Ireland by having so many non-domiciled companies who simply "book" business through Dublin in order to pay low corporate taxes. I suggest most of this amazing economic miracle has absolutely no bearing on real Irish GDP. So I suspect the Irish will be a bit more circumspect when it comes to issuing revising GNP, this metric probably giving a more balanced snapshot than GDP.

THe EU will be wanting a higher nett contribution as a result of this revision I suspect. Much as they did to our good selves when they included the proceeds of crime such as prostitution and drug dealing into the official UK GDP figures.

Cheers,

Tony
( buggar 3 minutes too late)

Was it Italy that discovered it had to and something like 17% to its GDP figures once the "dark" economy estimates were added in?

Can't have done the banking figures much good .... well, other than Burlyscojones who might possibly have been responsible for about half of that extra spend.

Indeed it cannot! Italy has been double dealing the EU for some considerable time. The Italian economy has been running heavy black market operations for years and years and living there personally for some time showed me only too clearly the visible extent of the fiddling which was just totally apparent. Cash is king in Italy and the natonal pastimes is getting one over on the taxman.

Interesting and informative posts from LongQ, AndyZarse, fbfm, Tony427 and others on here that really does present with clarity the complete nonsense that politics has become in much of the World today. Just look at the discussions on here between interested observers wth no axe to grind and contrast that with the lunacy going on in the Labour Party and Conservative parties currently.

Corbyn Is refusing to accept that he cannot actually lead the party , when already there are, insufficient Labour MP's actually prepared to fill the vacant shadow cabinet seats because they will not work with Corbyn. Now the Labour Party are getting ready to end up in the High Court because the executive may not allow Corbyn to stand in the forthcoming Leadership vote because he cannot actually get 50 MP's to support hs candidature. You could not make it up.

I recognise that a number of individuals on here have been hammering on about the pathetic inadeqacy of modern politicians and with the stumbling bumbling Cameron on his way out following probably the greatest demonstration of being out of touch with the electorate, than any politican has demonstrated to date, and George Osborne disappearing totally for a week in a blue funk, following the Brext vote it really is looking absolutely dreadful!! Theresa May has assumed the Prime Minsters position without even receiving one vote from either the MP's or the Conservative Party Members. The entire process has been scrapped because it suits the politicans. No thought of the county whatsoever!

Disgraceful manipulation and malpractice on a daily basis has become the bedrock of British Politics which serves the elite very well but does nothing for democracy and nothing for our country. Politics was was always a very dirty business but modern politicians have lowered the standards even further down, than they were before!. Which was in itself were already appallingly bad.

I really do fear for our country, these weasels are only out for one thing! Themseves!!! Not looking at all good is it!!

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 12th July 19:15

[LongQ]

Steffan said:

LongQ said:

Tony427 said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

Regular readers of this thread may recall that I have written before on the (in)competence of official economic data gatherers and the issues this leads to. My view is with the problems arise in Ireland by having so many non-domiciled companies who simply "book" business through Dublin in order to pay low corporate taxes. I suggest most of this amazing economic miracle has absolutely no bearing on real Irish GDP. So I suspect the Irish will be a bit more circumspect when it comes to issuing revising GNP, this metric probably giving a more balanced snapshot than GDP.

THe EU will be wanting a higher nett contribution as a result of this revision I suspect. Much as they did to our good selves when they included the proceeds of crime such as prostitution and drug dealing into the official UK GDP figures.

Cheers,

Tony
( buggar 3 minutes too late)

Was it Italy that discovered it had to and something like 17% to its GDP figures once the "dark" economy estimates were added in?

Can't have done the banking figures much good .... well, other than Burlyscojones who might possibly have been responsible for about half of that extra spend.

Indeed it cannot! Italy has been double dealing the EU for some considerable time. The Italian economy has been running heavy black market operations for years and years and living there personally for some time showed me only too clearly the visible extent of the fiddling which was just totally apparent. Cash is king in Italy and the natonal pastimes is getting one over on the taxman.

Interesting and informative posts from LongQ, AndyZarse, fbfm, Tony427 and others on here that really does present with clarity the complete nonsense that politics has become in much of the World today. Just look at the discussions on here between interested observers wth no axe to grind and contrast that with the lunacy going on in the Labour Party and Conservative parties currently.

Corbyn Is refusing to accept that he cannot actually lead the party , when already there are, insufficient Labour MP's actually prepared to fill the vacant shadow cabinet seats because they will not work with Corbyn. Now the Labour Party are getting ready to end up in the High Court because the executive may not allow Corbyn to stand in the forthcoming Leadership vote because he cannot actually get 50 MP's to support hs candidature. You could not make it up.

I recognise that a number of individuals on here have been hammering on about the pathetic inadeqacy of modern politicians and with the stumbling bumbling Cameron on his way out following probably the greatest demonstration of being out of touch with the electorate, than any politican has demonstrated to date, and George Osborne disappearing totally for a week in a blue funk, following the Brext vote it really is looking absolutely dreadful!! Theresa May has assumed the Prime Minsters position without even receiving one vote from either the MP's or the Conservative Party Members. The entire process has been scrapped because it suits the politicans. No thought of the county whatsoever!

Disgraceful manipulation and malpractice on a daily basis has become the bedrock of British Politics which serves the elite very well but does nothing for democracy and nothing for our country. Politics was was always a very dirty business but modern politicians have lowered the standards even further down, than they were before!. Which was in itself were already appallingly bad.

I really do fear for our country, these weasels are only out for one thing! Themseves!!! Not looking at all good is it!!

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 12th July 19:15

Two observations about your words Steffan - observations that hit me as I read it.

Firstly:

"No thought of the county whatsoever!"

Which I appreciate is a slip of the finger near a keyboard but to subconscious correlation of Westminster to a "County" in Europe stood out, at least for me. That said I have been referring to Westminster as a Parish since 2004, if not earlier.

Secondly:

"Politics was was always a very dirty business but modern politicians have lowered the standards even further down, than they were before!."

One should always end on a positive I have been told.

Thus, in the context of Dirty Business Politics, one should be referring to the modern incumbents as RAISING the bar (for DIRTY politics) rather than lowering it.

I would suggest some correspondence with Alastair Campbell or Matthew Freud or people of similar apparent life function as a primer for more assured and comfortable use of metaphors about bars and their direction of travel. (Not Farage though - wrong sort of bar.)

[Steffan]

Well the PLP have decided that Corbyn can stand in the forthcoming leadership election against Eagle. Now that really will place the cat amonst the pigeons within Labour because, given the dramatic rise of Momentum witin the membership of Labour, and given that Momentum is a very effective Union backed pressure group within Labour, then I think that Corbyn may very well win this leadership contest.

Yet as we already know, Corbyn cannot rely upon the support of the Labour MP's within Parliament, because the Labour MPs have already hekd a vte which was heavily against Corbyn. The vast majority have aready refused to support Corbyn, as Labour leader. This really is beginning to look like, there will be a real and permanent schism within Labour. The party could, very well be heading, for a lasting split into two disparate parts. Unless a uniting force can be rallied from somewhere and that seems highly unlikely currently.

It does remind me of my oft used quote by Harold Wilson, which I will not reiterate because, I am sure that the mere hint is sufficent to remind readers of the phrase. The Labour Party really is looking more and more dishevelled, disconsolate and totally and deeply divided and unhappy and regrettably, in total disarray. No effective opposition is never good for politics. or the country, but it does seem to the way things are heading!

[Sam All]

Steffan said:

Well the PLP have decided that Corbyn can stand in the forthcoming leadership election against Eagle. Now that really will place the cat amonst the pigeons within Labour because, given the dramatic rise of Momentum witin the membership of Labour, and given that Momentum is a very effective Union backed pressure group within Labour, then I think that Corbyn may very well win this leadership contest.

Yet as we already know, Corbyn cannot rely upon the support of the Labour MP's within Parliament, because the Labour MPs have already hekd a vte which was heavily against Corbyn. The vast majority have aready refused to support Corbyn, as Labour leader. This really is beginning to look like, there will be a real and permanent schism within Labour. The party could, very well be heading, for a lasting split into two disparate parts. Unless a uniting force can be rallied from somewhere and that seems highly unlikely currently.

It does remind me of my oft used quote by Harold Wilson, which I will not reiterate because, I am sure that the mere hint is sufficent to remind readers of the phrase. The Labour Party really is looking more and more dishevelled, disconsolate and totally and deeply divided and unhappy and regrettably, in total disarray. No effective opposition is never good for politics. or the country, but it does seem to the way things are heading!

I think this is good news. An opportunity to reinvent politics fit for today's world.

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

Steffan said:

LongQ said:

Tony427 said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

Regular readers of this thread may recall that I have written before on the (in)competence of official economic data gatherers and the issues this leads to. My view is with the problems arise in Ireland by having so many non-domiciled companies who simply "book" business through Dublin in order to pay low corporate taxes. I suggest most of this amazing economic miracle has absolutely no bearing on real Irish GDP. So I suspect the Irish will be a bit more circumspect when it comes to issuing revising GNP, this metric probably giving a more balanced snapshot than GDP.

THe EU will be wanting a higher nett contribution as a result of this revision I suspect. Much as they did to our good selves when they included the proceeds of crime such as prostitution and drug dealing into the official UK GDP figures.

Cheers,

Tony
( buggar 3 minutes too late)

Was it Italy that discovered it had to and something like 17% to its GDP figures once the "dark" economy estimates were added in?

Can't have done the banking figures much good .... well, other than Burlyscojones who might possibly have been responsible for about half of that extra spend.

Indeed it cannot! Italy has been double dealing the EU for some considerable time. The Italian economy has been running heavy black market operations for years and years and living there personally for some time showed me only too clearly the visible extent of the fiddling which was just totally apparent. Cash is king in Italy and the natonal pastimes is getting one over on the taxman.

Interesting and informative posts from LongQ, AndyZarse, fbfm, Tony427 and others on here that really does present with clarity the complete nonsense that politics has become in much of the World today. Just look at the discussions on here between interested observers wth no axe to grind and contrast that with the lunacy going on in the Labour Party and Conservative parties currently.

Corbyn Is refusing to accept that he cannot actually lead the party , when already there are, insufficient Labour MP's actually prepared to fill the vacant shadow cabinet seats because they will not work with Corbyn. Now the Labour Party are getting ready to end up in the High Court because the executive may not allow Corbyn to stand in the forthcoming Leadership vote because he cannot actually get 50 MP's to support hs candidature. You could not make it up.

I recognise that a number of individuals on here have been hammering on about the pathetic inadeqacy of modern politicians and with the stumbling bumbling Cameron on his way out following probably the greatest demonstration of being out of touch with the electorate, than any politican has demonstrated to date, and George Osborne disappearing totally for a week in a blue funk, following the Brext vote it really is looking absolutely dreadful!! Theresa May has assumed the Prime Minsters position without even receiving one vote from either the MP's or the Conservative Party Members. The entire process has been scrapped because it suits the politicans. No thought of the county whatsoever!

Disgraceful manipulation and malpractice on a daily basis has become the bedrock of British Politics which serves the elite very well but does nothing for democracy and nothing for our country. Politics was was always a very dirty business but modern politicians have lowered the standards even further down, than they were before!. Which was in itself were already appallingly bad.

I really do fear for our country, these weasels are only out for one thing! Themseves!!! Not looking at all good is it!!

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 12th July 19:15

Two observations about your words Steffan - observations that hit me as I read it.

Firstly:

"No thought of the county whatsoever!"

Which I appreciate is a slip of the finger near a keyboard but to subconscious correlation of Westminster to a "County" in Europe stood out, at least for me. That said I have been referring to Westminster as a Parish since 2004, if not earlier.

Secondly:

"Politics was was always a very dirty business but modern politicians have lowered the standards even further down, than they were before!."

One should always end on a positive I have been told.

Thus, in the context of Dirty Business Politics, one should be referring to the modern incumbents as RAISING the bar (for DIRTY politics) rather than lowering it.

I would suggest some correspondence with Alastair Campbell or Matthew Freud or people of similar apparent life function as a primer for more assured and comfortable use of metaphors about bars and their direction of travel. (Not Farage though - wrong sort of bar.)






[/iquote]

Ah well, I am sure you are right and the positive analogy is altogether much more appropriate in these matters than my negative efforts. Whichever method is used to highlight the steady slithering down in standards within UK politics will be allright with me.


I was busy hammering out my thoughts on the Corbyn fiasco onto the thread when I missed your reply and I would have responded earler otherwise. I really find the current direction (??) of Labour and the very visible internal machinations that are going on with Union dominated, organised vocal pressure groups within Labour, a very unwelcome development. I wonder where this will end? Bad news indeed I fear, and likely to result in serious splits within Labour, I think?

I do wonder whether Corbyn will back in exactly the same position as he is currently. Unable to form an effective opposition? Not worth the candle, is it? Pity the poor country Brexiting with a largely Remain camp government in power and a hopless opposition failing to effectively scrutinise any of the actions and policies the government propose. We need and deserve both an effective committed Government and an effective opposition.

I am not sure we have either!

Definitely not good!!

[anonymous-user]

Not sure this is the right thread for this discussion Steffan. But I think what we are seeing is the deliberate purging of New Labour from Labour by Corbyn, he clearly has the power because of the system put in place by Milliband makes it impossible for him to be removed. I always thought that guy was incompetent, but he has single headedly sown the seeds of the destruction of New Labour.

This is going to get messy, in the mean time lets hope the government gets its act together and forms a cabinet that gets on with the business in hand.

[Andy Zarse]

fblm said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

That'll see a nice jump in their EU contribution then.

Mainly due to some massive aircraft leasing deals by all accounts. I'm sure Mr Murphy on the Dublin omnibus will feel better off...

[LongQ]

Rather by chance, following a link in a post in another PH forum to yet another link, I came across this piece.

http://www.globalchange.com/truth-about-brexit-wha...

At first (partial) read it seems somewhat sensibly balanced and although about the likely effects of the Referendum it covers the EU challenges and Euro matters we have often covered here in Steffan's thread.

Interestingly it also latches on the the concept of Tribal groupings and how they can affect the perceptions and opinions of small groups within larger groups.

People may have seen it already - if so I apologise.

If not, see what you make of it.

It's quite long, starts off just after the vote and has been updated on several occasions since so don't worry too much if early in the read it stars to look out of date in places. Just put it into its timing context.

[turbobloke]

Andy Zarse said:

fblm said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

That'll see a nice jump in their EU contribution then.

Mainly due to some massive aircraft leasing deals by all accounts. I'm sure Mr Murphy on the Dublin omnibus will feel better off...

How much less pants the pants EZ economic outlook will appear now. The EZ must be fine. Nothing to see here.

[Andy Zarse]

turbobloke said:

Andy Zarse said:

fblm said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

That'll see a nice jump in their EU contribution then.

Mainly due to some massive aircraft leasing deals by all accounts. I'm sure Mr Murphy on the Dublin omnibus will feel better off...

How much less pants the pants EZ economic outlook will appear now. The EZ must be fine. Nothing to see here.

EZ GDP estimated to rise by 0.2% for 2015. Rejoice!

[anonymous-user]

Andy Zarse said:

turbobloke said:

Andy Zarse said:

fblm said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

That'll see a nice jump in their EU contribution then.

Mainly due to some massive aircraft leasing deals by all accounts. I'm sure Mr Murphy on the Dublin omnibus will feel better off...

How much less pants the pants EZ economic outlook will appear now. The EZ must be fine. Nothing to see here.

EZ GDP estimated to rise by 0.2% for 2015. Rejoice!

You going back in time to get that marvellous growth?

[kurt535]

Gargamel said:

kurt535 said:

If the Euro is such a screwed currency why has the £ fallen against it?

Love to know if we have a cunning trading plan on PH and every one is secretly shorting it...

Let us not pretend that the EU wouldn't love to see the Euro fall in value, because they would. It makes the stragglers more competitive and helps Germany to run riot on exports.

The have already debauched the currency via low (and negative) interest rates, and via 1 Trillion of QE.

That the pound has fallen, give the UK a competitive edge in some respects, admittedly it does also raise import cost, but these can be offset via greater exports.

Perspective is important, when we left the ERM, everyone thought the end of the world was nigh, then the UK went on an 8 year growth spree....

I was trading short sterling on the LIFFE the day we left ERM. City had been baying for the govt to leave as it was holding us back. Nobody our way thought the end was nigh.

And, um, we don't export physical stuff....

[turbobloke]

Andy Zarse said:

turbobloke said:

Andy Zarse said:

fblm said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

That'll see a nice jump in their EU contribution then.

Mainly due to some massive aircraft leasing deals by all accounts. I'm sure Mr Murphy on the Dublin omnibus will feel better off...

How much less pants the pants EZ economic outlook will appear now. The EZ must be fine. Nothing to see here.

EZ GDP estimated to rise by 0.2% for 2015. Rejoice!

[Andy Zarse]

turbobloke said:

Andy Zarse said:

turbobloke said:

Andy Zarse said:

fblm said:

Andy Zarse said:

An extraordinary press release this morning from the Irish Central Statistics Office. It announced GDP rose by 21% in the first quarter of 2015 and yes you do read that enormous revision correctly! It appears exports have been revised higher by 50%.

That'll see a nice jump in their EU contribution then.

Mainly due to some massive aircraft leasing deals by all accounts. I'm sure Mr Murphy on the Dublin omnibus will feel better off...

How much less pants the pants EZ economic outlook will appear now. The EZ must be fine. Nothing to see here.

EZ GDP estimated to rise by 0.2% for 2015. Rejoice!

Wait until the Kommissioners end "harmful tax competition", harmonise tax rates across the EU and watch business disappear out of the bloc to somewhere with not only attrative corporate tax rates, but the skills to deal with it and established company law. If only we knew of such country... <thinks>