How far will house prices fall? [Volume 3]

[Pork]

Digga said:

I disagree strongly on this point. I think it rather the case that the (last) government looked after welfare, enculcating the culture of dependece - whether that be on benefits or state non-jobs - first, and business possibly not even second unless you;re talking about 'big' business.

As for money supply, intetrsting argument here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-04/guest-pos...

Yes, I mean big businesses, those that pull the strings.

For welfare, I'm not specifically talking about 'welfare state', so benefits etc, I'm talking more about wellbeing. I think our government put business needs/demands over the well being of our population.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

So American mock-vintage. I couldn't even afford the teeth whitening and sunbed fees I need to go with that.

[MycroftWard]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

You don't seem to be able to accept the basic principle that increasing money supply, monetary inflation, leads to asset price infaltion including property.

Your arguement seems to be "I think this house X is worth Y, therefore houses are overvalved".

[Andy Zarse]

MycroftWard said:

Derek Chevalier said:

Why do you feel Japan is extreme compared to the UK?

Derek Chevalier said:

Why do you say that it is cheaper to pay a mortgage in long term - which >10 year rate are you referring to?

As inflation goes up the value of your mortgage will decline in real terms.

Derek Chevalier said:

Why do you think working class wages are too low - take a look at the US - I recall wages haven't outstripped inflation for the working man for decades. Why should it be different here?

It's a problem in the West generally, due to effects of globalisation.

Ignoring the fact that this idiotic graph shows Uk prices rising 15% over the last few years, I'm surprised you show it to support your argument. Japan started its QE and ZIRP programs about 15 years before us. Thus, can you offer an explanation as to why it is not showing us a graph of the nightmare of our future selfs?

[Digga]

Andy Zarse said:

Ignoring the fact that this idiotic graph shows Uk prices rising 15% over the last few years, I'm surprised you show it to support your argument. Japan started its QE and ZIRP programs about 15 years before us. Thus, can you offer an explanation as to why it is not showing us a graph of the nightmare of our future selfs?

that link I posted just before 10 this morning is one of ZH's better efforts IMHO (awaits scrutiny by fbrs...) and tells why we're not all bound for hyperinflation.

[Andy Zarse]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Explain why big increases in food/oil/basic commodity prices, negative wage inflation, a Santander SVR going up to 4.74% off the back of ZIRP and increased money supply which flatly refuses to filter through to the real life economy will mean house prices won't fall?

[Andy Zarse]

Digga said:

that link I posted just before 10 this morning is one of ZH's better efforts IMHO (awaits scrutiny by fbrs...) and tells why we're not all bound for hyperinflation.

the fking cops are fking keen
to fking keep it fking clean

the fking chief's a fking swine

who fking draws a fking line

at fking fun and fking games

the fking kids he fking blames

are nowehere to be fking found

anywhere in chicken town

the fking scene is fking sad

the fking news is fking bad

the fking weed is fking turf

the fking speed is fking surf

the fking folks are fking daft

don't make me fking laugh

it fking hurts to look around

everywhere in chicken town

the fking train is fking late

you fking wait you fking wait

you're fking lost and fking found

stuck in fking chicken town

the fking view is fking vile

for fking miles and fking miles

the fking babies fking cry

the fking flowers fking die

the fking food is fking muck

the fking drains are fking fked

the colour scheme is fking brown

everywhere in chicken town

the fking pubs are fking dull

the fking clubs are fking full

of fking girls and fking guys

with fking murder in their eyes

a fking bloke is fking stabbed

waiting for a fking cab

you fking stay at fking home

the fking neighbors fking moan

keep the fking racket down

this is fking chicken town

the fking train is fking late

you fking wait you fking wait

you're fking lost and fking found

stuck in fking chicken town

the fking pies are fking old

the fking chips are fking cold

the fking beer is fking flat

the fking flats have fking rats

the fking clocks are fking wrong

the fking days are fking long

it fking gets you fking down

evidently chicken town


LYRICS © JOHN COOPER CLARKE

[Digga]

Andy Zarse said:

LYRICS © JOHN COOPER CLARKE

Seriously, how did you know I'm off to see him next week?

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

Andy Zarse said:

LYRICS © JOHN COOPER CLARKE

How did you know I'm off to see him next week?

PH: Clairvoyance Matters

[chris watton]

turbobloke said:

Digga said:

Andy Zarse said:

LYRICS © JOHN COOPER CLARKE

How did you know I'm off to see him next week?

PH: Clairvoyance Matters

That's quite spooky! I was just listening to Reader's Wives by JCC, from the album Movement - The Peel Sessions 1977 - 1979 - and then I read this!

[Digga]

chris watton said:

turbobloke said:

Digga said:

Andy Zarse said:

LYRICS © JOHN COOPER CLARKE

How did you know I'm off to see him next week?

PH: Clairvoyance Matters

That's quite spooky! I was just listening to Reader's Wives by JCC, from the album Movement - The Peel Sessions 1977 - 1979 - and then I read this!

At first, when I read Andy's post I though I'd pasted the wrong link earlier. The the hairs on the back of my neck stood up.

(Please dont tell anyone about the porn!)

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

How far off topic are we?

I suppose it's geographically related to the houses we've recently (critically) demolished.

[spikeyhead]

Digga said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

How far off topic are we?

I suppose it's geographically related to the houses we've recently (critically) demolished.

PH thread diversions matter

[porridge]

IT is one of the most important economic stories of the past few years and yet the one that is least talked about. House prices in virtually all parts of the country excepting prime London have collapsed. It’s hard to believe if you live or aspire to live in Kensington, Richmond or another prosperous location, but it’s true – and it’s impossible to understand the overall economy, as opposed to the London bubble, and British politics without getting to grips with these statistics.

The average home in Britain sold for £163,910 in the third quarter, according to Nationwide. That is 11 per cent below the all time high reached at the height of the boom, when the average home was changing hands for £184,131 in the third quarter of 2007. But these figures are in nominal terms. Since then, inflation has substantially eroded the purchasing power of the pound.

The inflation-adjusted figures reveal that the peak to trough real terms decline has now reached around 24.2 per cent. Average house prices are back in real terms to levels last seen in the first quarter of 2003. In other words, all of the gains incurred over the past nine years have been completely wiped out. For most people in Britain, housing has been a poor investment over the past decade.

The figures provided by Halifax are even more extreme. These suggest that the real terms slump in average UK house prices has now reached a remarkable 33 per cent (and 19 per cent in nominal terms). Andrew Lilico of Europe Economics calculates that the real-terms peak-to-trough collapse in the 1990s was 33.9 per cent, so that could easily be surpassed next month.

The Nationwide figures imply that house prices remain at least 20 per cent too high compared to earnings, when using long-run estimates of the price to earnings ratio. One reason for this is that real wages have been falling sharply. But only half of the over-valuation in the UK housing market has been eradicated; so unless nominal prices fall significantly it will probably take another five years for consumer price inflation to bring the market back into synch.

Violent, lengthy booms and busts in the housing market mean that house prices can end up stagnating over long periods of time in real terms. In today’s money, an average house cost £81,708 in the first quarter of 1975, according to Nationwide; it was at virtually the same level – £82,469 – by the fourth quarter of 1995, 20 years later, at the trough of the previous house price bust and after huge ups and downs. Housing during that period was merely a hedge for inflation, nothing more. Timing is everything, and many made a fortune buying low and selling high.

There are, of course, massive regional variations. Northern Irish prices are down 53 per cent in nominal terms compared with 2007 levels. Southern England has seen prices hold up better, in particular London (down two per cent from peak, with some areas at record highs thanks to inflows of foreign cash) and the Outer Metropolitan area. The capital’s price to earnings ratio is at a horrendously unaffordable 7.4 times.

Given how over-valued the London market is, and its dependence on a troubled City and declining bonuses, as well as on potentially fickle foreign cash, a severe readjustment at some stage is a strong possibility, despite supply shortages. London property owners should resist succumbing to delusion. It is also dangerous for the government to encourage first time buyers to jump into the market when prices are falling in much of the country. And at some point, the Bank of England will hike interest rates – and then all bets will be off.

http://www.cityam.com/latest-news/allister-heath/o...

[Pork]

porridge said:

City AM Article

I remeber reading a story which was the polar opposite to that a year or two back in City AM, also written by Allister Heath.

It's interesting that the subject is getting more column inches in the press, but until the likes of Kirsty stop convincing people that property only ever goes up, the general public will not be impacted by 'real term' decreases in values.

[Pork]

Interesting article, stating the obvious. Why don't politicians get it? House prices need to fall

Article said:

This misplaced obsession with the housing market was also evident in the proposals put forward by shadow chancellor Ed Balls.

He said Labour would introduce a programme to build 100,000 houses using the proceeds of the 4G licence auction to fund to the programme.

At the same time he talked about reintroducing the Stamp Duty holiday for property purchases under £250,000 that Alastair Darling introduced for two years in 2010

This is surely intended to encourage more people to buy houses. How will that make them more affordable? These two policies point in opposite directions, but then I would hardly accuse Balls of economic competence.

It also said:

Politicians of all persuasions need to learn one simple lesson on housing: in order to make it more affordable, prices have to fall.

Its not rocket science, it is?

[rover 623gsi]

price will not fall while there is more demand than supply

[Pork]

rover 623gsi said:

price will not fall while there is more demand than supply

Well, I'm sure your right, but what drives demand? Avaialble credit, for the most part.

[rover 623gsi]

the demand is driven by the fact that people need somewhere to live

[Derek Chevalier]

Pork said:

rover 623gsi said:

price will not fall while there is more demand than supply

Well, I'm sure your right, but what drives demand? Avaialble credit, for the most part.

Most being >99%