The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

[sherbertdip]

QuantumTokoloshi said:

sherbertdip said:

i wouldn't pop the Asti-Spew cork just yet, did you really read it or just the headline?

"Angela Merkel could move to oust Europe’s federalist chief Jean-Claude Juncker 'within the next year', a Germany government minister has said"

"“The pressure on him [Juncker] to resign will only become greater and Chancellor Merkel will eventually have to deal with this next year,” an unnamed German minister told The Sunday Times"

I did read it, hence why I posted it. That timing is good for the UK, as we most likely, will be in the initial phases of our negotiations at that point.

If Juncker has a target on his back from Germany. I doubt he can survive it.

I agree, he needs to go and sooner the better, the article is just a bit of a fairy tale without the name of the German Minister, and the use of "could", i just read it is a bit of fantasy journalism.

[QuantumTokoloshi]

sherbertdip said:

QuantumTokoloshi said:

sherbertdip said:

i wouldn't pop the Asti-Spew cork just yet, did you really read it or just the headline?

"Angela Merkel could move to oust Europe’s federalist chief Jean-Claude Juncker 'within the next year', a Germany government minister has said"

"“The pressure on him [Juncker] to resign will only become greater and Chancellor Merkel will eventually have to deal with this next year,” an unnamed German minister told The Sunday Times"

I did read it, hence why I posted it. That timing is good for the UK, as we most likely, will be in the initial phases of our negotiations at that point.

If Juncker has a target on his back from Germany. I doubt he can survive it.

I agree, he needs to go and sooner the better, the article is just a bit of a fairy tale without the name of the German Minister, and the use of "could", i just read it is a bit of fantasy jounalism.

Agreed, but who would have thought the events of the last week was even possible, never mind likely to happen.

The UK is in a big poker game currently, we need every advantage we can get.

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Sunday 3rd July 20:12

[chris watton]

QuantumTokoloshi said:

Agreed, but who would have thought the events if the last week was even possible, never mind likely to happen.

The UK is in a big poker game currently, we need every advantage we can get.

That's the way I see it. I figured that, if nothing else, this vote would be a huge wake-up call to those who have gotten a tad too comfortable in the EU, and thinking that bullying individual sovereign states is all OK, for the greater cause of ever-closer integration that ultimately leads to a single state.

[don4l]

QuantumTokoloshi said:

The UK is in a big poker game currently, we need every advantage we can get.

Well said!

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

I'm going to get as many answers to this question as I did when I asked "To what problem is the EU a solution?".

[s2art]

don4l said:

QuantumTokoloshi said:

The UK is in a big poker game currently, we need every advantage we can get.

Well said!

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

I'm going to get as many answers to this question as I did when I asked "To what problem is the EU a solution?".

Probably a bad thing to those who particularly want a German car. Other that that it probably wouldnt be that important as long as the tariff collected is spent well.

[anonymous-user]

don4l said:

Well said!

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

I'm going to get as many answers to this question as I did when I asked "To what problem is the EU a solution?".

Or as many answers as car companies that think it's a good idea to leave the EU-and yet you think it's a great idea for the UK auto industry?

[FiF]

steveatesh said:

Personally I didn't listen to the official Brexit campaign, or Vote Leave, I got my sources elsewhere. In my view both sides of the campaign were equally as bad as each other, with threats and doom related sky will fall in nonsense on one side and dodgy arguments (and that's being kind to them) on the other.

My leave vote was based on Europe being the only continent which was not growing ( along with Antartica I believe) economically, the growing importance of world trade bodies such as WTO and Codex in global markets, the diminishing role of the EU in global trade and even European trade, the EU being more and more a middle man in merely implementing stuff making it an anachronism, the fact that we had no place at the global negotiations (but Norway does), that position was likely to put us at a disadvantage in the years ahead, and that once we are free we will be able to negotiate and have more influence on a global scale than we do now (I'm talking trade context).

Then there was the incessant move for federalisation, and in my view no democratic accountability, and the likelihood of the Euro collapsing which we would have to pick up some pieces, if we stay.

And for me as with any investment, I took a view. My view was that although there may be short term rough waters we would sail through them into a nice calm sea and make more progress than we would if we remained anchored to an outdated, inward looking anachronism from another age.

So nothing for me about immigration, nothing for me about money we give the EU. It was an investment decision based on my view of the state of the world now and it's direction of travel in the context of trade and the likely future over the next decade or so.

You made your decision, I made mine. Time will tell who is right. In the meantime I'll pick up the name calling (white, middle aged, northern city but well off and well educated so don't entirely first the profile remainers are using).

Ultimately remain lost and the sooner you ( and the BBC and Tony Blair) accept that the better.

I suppose you could emigrate before we actually leave if you feel so strongly about it?

This is virtually an echo of my reasoning, perhaps worded slightly differently and why I supported Leave Alliance, and still do.

If people want to know the profile, white, like to think middle aged but pension age looming. Rural Midlands, educated, post graduate level. Had financial support from EU for research, but on balance made decision above personal interest, though to be fair the EU money isn't a deal breaker, devil in detail.

[steveatesh]

jjlynn27 said:

Well reasoned.

I don't understand the part of winning/losing. Whatever transpires to be the way forward, we'll all be better/worse off than we are.
As for name calling, it did went on both side of the argument. At the end of the day each of us knows our education levels, age and whatever else was mentioned.

May I ask what is your, personal, favourite way forward (norway/wto/something else)?
My preference at this stage would be any option that allows access to single market, if only while we negotiate other deals.

That would be my preference too, I see it as a process rather than a Big Bang event. I've been following Dr Norths Flexcit and the EEA/EFTA route as an interim measure seems sensible to me, it protects trade in the short term plus gives a modicum of extra control over immigration to appease in a small way those who it bothers.

And as you say start negotiating other deals ASAP, I imagine feelers will already be out for informal discussions. If not they soon will be.

[ellroy]

Hannah is reporting on Twitter that Mischon de Reya (sp?) are taking HMG to court to ensure that a vote is held in Parliament before article 50 can be enacted.

[don4l]

cookie118 said:

don4l said:

Well said!

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

I'm going to get as many answers to this question as I did when I asked "To what problem is the EU a solution?".

Or as many answers as car companies that think it's a good idea to leave the EU-and yet you think it's a great idea for the UK auto industry?

Well done!

You managed to completely ignore both of my questions.

My first question was:-

don4l said:

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

So, can you?

[///ajd]

don4l said:

Well said!

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

Surely the flip side of this is that 10% tariffs would be applied to UK cars being exported to the EU? The EU already apply tariffs of 10% to cars imported from outside the EU.

This would not only hit UK car exports in the short term, as they would become relatively more expensive to the EU-produced competition, but the industry would quickly weigh up whether it was more tariff efficient to manufacture in the EU - which it almost certainly would be as all UK car plants export more cars to the EU than they sell in the UK.

Put simply they will make more money making cars in the EU and exporting them to the UK, than making cars in the UK and exporting some of them to the EU. Hence investment decisions for future models would be to set up manufacture in the EU, and UK plants would close as models are refreshed. You may think this might take years, but these decisions have long leadtimes, and once the market conditions tip it one way, that's it.

I think that's a bad thing, don't you?

[steveatesh]

cookie118 said:

don4l said:

Well said!

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

I'm going to get as many answers to this question as I did when I asked "To what problem is the EU a solution?".

Or as many answers as car companies that think it's a good idea to leave the EU-and yet you think it's a great idea for the UK auto industry?

Interestingly it will not matter in around 15 years as I understand cars will be be tarif free as part of ongoing globalisation and the spread of free trade. Sorry can't give you a link, I read it a few weeks ago on an article about free trade, the EU and globalisation of trade.

I appreciate that is still 15 years to get through of course.

[HappyMidget]

ellroy said:

Hannah is reporting on Twitter that Mischon de Reya (sp?) are taking HMG to court to ensure that a vote is held in Parliament before article 50 can be enacted.

That was always the case though I thought. Tories have a majority so they just need to get their st together and back the party line.

[steveatesh]

chris watton said:

That's the way I see it. I figured that, if nothing else, this vote would be a huge wake-up call to those who have gotten a tad too comfortable in the EU, and thinking that bullying individual sovereign states is all OK, for the greater cause of ever-closer integration that ultimately leads to a single state.

We do and I personally don't think trade will be the only issue. There is a bear stirring in the east and I doubt that European heads of state, or the USA government, will risk putting our ability to spend on defence in a worse position.

In other words they need more than just our trade. As a big part of NATO they will not want to damage us economically too much as defence spending would be reduced, sure as eggs are eggs.

This is all about politics, but it will be wrapped up in trade so we don't see that bit.

Edited to add sorry a formatting cock up issue - this was supposed to be in reply to Quantums comment at 8.10pm about the Uk being in a big poker game.

[jjlynn27]

steveatesh said:

jjlynn27 said:

Well reasoned.

I don't understand the part of winning/losing. Whatever transpires to be the way forward, we'll all be better/worse off than we are.
As for name calling, it did went on both side of the argument. At the end of the day each of us knows our education levels, age and whatever else was mentioned.

May I ask what is your, personal, favourite way forward (norway/wto/something else)?
My preference at this stage would be any option that allows access to single market, if only while we negotiate other deals.

That would be my preference too, I see it as a process rather than a Big Bang event. I've been following Dr Norths Flexcit and the EEA/EFTA route as an interim measure seems sensible to me, it protects trade in the short term plus gives a modicum of extra control over immigration to appease in a small way those who it bothers.

And as you say start negotiating other deals ASAP, I imagine feelers will already be out for informal discussions. If not they soon will be.

I'll have a look at that, if you have direct link to an article (Flexcit) it would be very much appreciated. The issue of EFTA route is that Norway PM doesn't seem to be too excited about it, quoting dilution of their influence when negotiate third party deals. She's not flatly refusing, and it could be posturing, but she seems to want, quite rightly to protect Norway's interests.

Reason that I'm asking if there are any broad statements of where are we going, is that out of all options it's somehow presumed that we'll be on WTO/EFTA, as some poster said 'in 5 minutes'. I don't see that happening, unless that (EFTA) deal is trashed out after invoking A50.
If I'm not mistaken, Leadsom doesn't want to go 'free access to single market route' at all.

[jjlynn27]

steveatesh said:

We do and I personally don't think trade will be the only issue. There is a bear stirring in the east and I doubt that European heads of state, or the USA government, will risk putting our ability to spend on defence in a worse position.

This is a good point that I didn't think of previously. Keep them coming.

[anonymous-user]

don4l said:

cookie118 said:

don4l said:

Well said!

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

I'm going to get as many answers to this question as I did when I asked "To what problem is the EU a solution?".

Or as many answers as car companies that think it's a good idea to leave the EU-and yet you think it's a great idea for the UK auto industry?

Well done!

You managed to completely ignore both of my questions.

My first question was:-

don4l said:

Can someone explain to me why they think that a 10% import duty on German cars would be a bad thing?

So, can you?

Prices of German (and other EU produced cars) will go up leading to less sales as fewer people can afford new cars.

Now the manufacturers may be able to claw back some of those sales (e.g by taking sales from JLR in Europe) but the UK dealers cannot.

So if UK new car sales decrease due to an increase in taxes UK jobs and investment may decrease while the manufacturers are not hit as much. And it's not like this will automatically mean more UK-built car sales as if consumer confidence is low people just won't buy new cars.

So less new car sales means less salespeople, workshop staff, service staff etc in the customer facing side, which would generally be bad-no?

There you go

[johnxjsc1985]

So we may have to buy British built Cars for a while and more British goods. Maybe the Police can stop buying BMW's etc

[Sam All]

johnxjsc1985 said:

So we may have to buy British built Cars for a while and more British goods. Maybe the Police can stop buying BMW's etc

The Germans will not allow that to happen

[Trabi601]

johnxjsc1985 said:

So we may have to buy British built Cars for a while and more British goods. Maybe the Police can stop buying BMW's etc

Great plan.

Have you actually looked at what we make in the UK?

I don't think an Avensis D4D or CashCow 1.5dCi is going to cut it as a high speed patrol car.