Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Andy Zarse]

Steffan said:

YankeePorker said:

They need a bit of Grecian 2000 to get their economy back in the black.....

Indeed they do and I cannot see much hope for recovery within the EU because there has already been far too much refusal to face reality and far too many attempts to hide away and disguise abject economic. Thousands of millions of Euros have been thrown away willy nilly. None of that money is ever coming back.

The EU can and are, currently, pretending that this money will be reaid in full and show the debt as fully recoverable. But as the first lesson of insolvency shows, you CANNOT get debts repaid by a hopelessly insolvent debtor any more than you can get blood out of a stone. The pretence and dishonesty of the EU can and is continuing. But not for long, I would suggest.

The EU failing states cannot afford to remain within the EU. They never could and never will.

Sgnificantly huge changes are coming across the Western World in any event, following our Brexit vote, which was in itself pretty challenging, but nothing compared to the huge lasting shock that has followed the Trump result in the USA. Given a significant Republican majority in both the Houses, Trump really has an unparalleled opportunity to enact, wthout hindrance, the legisation that he has been promising in his residential campaign! There really is nothing to hold him back and I think we must assume that is what Trump will do!

The tragedy is, that as Boris Johnson quipped on the Radio today, in response to the fuss in America, post Trump, and to reality finally sinking to the losers in the election, when Boris commented on that fuss by saying, ' I do not think Wingerama', will get anyone anywhere!' was absolutely on the button in my view. Fate accompli! Crying over spilt milk never did anyone any good!

The American media were all to a man, living in a dream world of their own fantasies and totally out touch with the realities of the real voting intentions of the US electorate. The Washington politcal Merry Go Round had all made precisely the same error. Neither of them were either in tune with the electorate or even listening to the electorate. Indeed you do have to ask the question, whether either of those groups coud care less what the voters intentions were? If they could then I think they might just have realised Trump was a winning certainty. The USA is demanding change. Trump offerred change. Hence the unexpected landslide victory for a man without any previous political experience.

There is going to be a huge change in the running of the US and I sincerely hope America is better served by the change. There will also be major changes in the way that Britain goes about business and I sincerely hope that this too will better serve the UK. I honestly believe that the EU concept will also become yesterday news and I foresee huge changes within the EU in consequence.

I am becoming more and more certain that other States within the EU are also going to be returning increasingly right wing politicians chaged with protecting the interests of their own electorate and not the collective wellbeng of an amorphous body like the EU. Changes are coming and I cannot see the EU surviving those changes, for all the aforementioned reasons. Interesting times indeed!

To which I would simply add, if Marine Le Pen wins in France, the Euro is toast. Bonds in the periphery would sell off and we would probably have a banking crisis. The Italian referendum being won by 5Star would be less dramatic but still of grave concern for the Eurozone honchos. Grexit didn't happen because Greece had no leverage. Italy and France do. That's where the immediate threat to the Euro lies, beyond the well known structural issues.

[Steffan]

RYH64E said:

BIANCO said:

1826 you do know that there are 7.4 billion people in the world? Not exactly good odds. I bet you think doing the lottery is a good financial investment.

Never bought a lottery ticket, not even one.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make, maybe you think we should all be billionaires? My point is that it isn't the system that prevents people becoming millionaires or even billionaires, in the UK at least, the opportunities are there for all of us.

Maybe it's just the circles I move in, but all of the wealthy people I know have made their own money.

I do entirely agree that, as the old music hall song suggested, which says.

"When you know that life, is what you make it, then you know the secrets of it all!"

is indeed absolutely on the button!

All the population within our democracy have a fair chance of fortune given good health, barring serious illness or disability. Down to the efforts or each individual. I have been very fortunate in business life and known a lot of self made businessmen who made fortunes and kept a lot of their earnings. I did find that there were some unpleasant and unlikeable wealthy individuals. But in well over 50 years in Accountancy I never met a lazy one!! The vast majority of the achievers in Business that I known have been really perfectly pleasant people.

But never, ever a lazy one.

I believe every individual within a democracy like ours must accept responsibility for ther own choices and efforts and lifestyle and actions. Sadly that approach has been denigrated by the rise of irresponsibility encouraged by the mounting size of the Welfare state which is at a point were major changes must be made to enable a rebalancing and ensure every individual must be responsible for their own lives and choices.

The state may seek to assist but each individual must always be entirely responsible for their own lives.

[RYH64E]

BIANCO said:

So anyone that doesnt get rich are just lazy sods?

Or thick.

[B'stard Child]

That the best you guys can come up with?

fking grow up.

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

BIANCO said:

So anyone that doesnt get rich are just lazy sods?

Or thick.

If you read a lot of the "how I done good" stories of the wealthy and famous, or indeed, if you talk to enough wealthy friends and acquaintances, one of the recurrent themes is luck. I am not generally talking about blind luck, or inferring hard work, enterprise or risk were absent - the latter is very often the biggest roll of the dice and where the luck really comes into it - but nonetheless, a lot of these people were extremely fortunate not to go bust, let alone avoid jail.

Furthermore, I am fairly sure anyone with a degree of honesty, introspection and analysis could probably point out one or two moments in their business lives where things went far, far better than they might otherwise, just as they can also likely pinpoint occasions where they grasped opportunities.

[superlightr]

luck is the residue of good planning.

Its taking chances/risk when others may not and having those pay off. These are calculated risks depending on your own risk/reward comfort zone. It understanding the rules and when you can push them to your benefit and when to back off.

As a self employed bod its all to do with risk in my view.

Edited by superlightr on Monday 14th November 09:51

[wc98]

RYH64E said:

I keep hearing about downtrodden people and the ruling elite but it isn't a system I recognise, plenty of people in the UK have started from the bottom, with nothing, and done very well for themselves. The opportunities are there for those who choose to take advantage of them.

i understand what you are saying , relatively speaking the developed western world has little in the way of real poverty . we don't see many looking for their dinner on rubbish tips here for instance.for me though, the way things were/are going there is every chance the likes of trump and the more right wing elements gaining popularity in europe at the moment might turn out to be shrinking violets compared to those that come after if the current air of disaffection is not addressed.

you can see the trend a mile away,so while real poverty may not be the issue,the disillusionment with the establishment and their cronies is very real and must be addressed. if not,there are far, far worse options than the likes of trump and marine le pen more than ready to come to the fore. it has happened before.

[wc98]

Escapegoat said:

V8RX7 said:

The Ruling Elite are a fairly stable group which generally you are born into.

I'd argue that's too narrow. The elite that is being rejected by voters is far wider than that, and it's not purely wealth. It includes head teachers earning six-figure salaries, quango bosses telling people what not to think, union leaders paid far in excess of their members, magistrates who seem lenient on career criminals, failed senior social workers who have jobs created for them instead of being sacked, lawyers who operate as local cartels to skim huge amounts of wealth from divorces, BBC employees who run themselves as limited companies, etc. Plus the more obvious unacountable bureaucrats and teflon-coated politicians.

All of these professional classes have done pretty well from the last 20-25 years, while the vast majority of people, for whom it's PAYE instead of PALAYCGAW, haven't seen much more than the growth in house prices (almost impossible to use, assuming they even own their own home).

bang on the money imo.

[Pan Pan Pan]

superlightr said:

luck is the residue of good planning.

Its taking chances/risk when others may not and having those pay off. These are calculated risks depending on your own risk/reward comfort zone. It understanding the rules and when you can push them to your benefit and when to back off.

As a self employed bod its all to do with risk in my view.

Edited by superlightr on Monday 14th November 09:51

Not forgetting the golfers saying about luck. The harder I work, the luckier I seem to get

[Gargamel]

Andy Zarse said:

To which I would simply add, if Marine Le Pen wins in France, the Euro is toast. Bonds in the periphery would sell off and we would probably have a banking crisis. The Italian referendum being won by 5Star would be less dramatic but still of grave concern for the Eurozone honchos. Grexit didn't happen because Greece had no leverage. Italy and France do. That's where the immediate threat to the Euro lies, beyond the well known structural issues.

Le Pen, that's the one serious risk coming in the next 12 months, assuming relative stability in other things. The Italy vote could be a shock loss, but I see no immediate consequence.

France however seine on the face if it has kind of a boiling undercurrent, that perhaps Le Pen can tap into al Trump.

Widest gap I can find is six points... and we know how good polls have been lately

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...

[FN2TypeR]

Whilst I have no love for the EU or it's projects I really wouldn't want to see her or the FN in power - awful people, awful party.

[RYH64E]

Digga said:

If you read a lot of the "how I done good" stories of the wealthy and famous, or indeed, if you talk to enough wealthy friends and acquaintances, one of the recurrent themes is luck. I am not generally talking about blind luck, or inferring hard work, enterprise or risk were absent - the latter is very often the biggest roll of the dice and where the luck really comes into it - but nonetheless, a lot of these people were extremely fortunate not to go bust, let alone avoid jail.

Furthermore, I am fairly sure anyone with a degree of honesty, introspection and analysis could probably point out one or two moments in their business lives where things went far, far better than they might otherwise, just as they can also likely pinpoint occasions where they grasped opportunities.

In many cases, my own included, bad luck is the spur to do something better. In my own case, after two redundancies in quick succession in my mid-thirties I decided that I couldn't afford to trust my future to anonymous employers based on another continent and that I'd better start looking after myself, so that's what I did, and it's worked out very well. Without that trigger I'd probably still be in the comfort zone picking up a relatively modest pay cheque every month, along with many, many others who could probably do better.

[avinalarf]

davepoth said:

So how many of them were already well-off when they were born? They may not have been billionaires but if they had $100m to start with it's a bit easier to get going from there.

I believe the majority of people do not expect to be a billionaire or even a millionaire.
What they do EXPECT is to be able to earn enough to support themselves and a couple of kids in a reasonable manner.
A little light at the end of the tunnel.
Several things have happened in the past few years that have conflated and made their expectations very much more difficult if not nigh impossible to achieve.
1) The financial crisis.
One cause,of several, for the austerity programmes
2) Companies paying low wages that have to be topped up by government subsidies i.e. us.
3)Uncontrolled large scale immigration.This has had both kept wages low and put a strain on infrastructure.
Of course there has been the upside of a greater pool of talent.
3)Globalisation ...jobs outsourced to China,Asia,India etc.
This has kept prices low in the shops,but how does one expect the worker in Europe,GB and the USA to live on the low wages paid to workers in China,India and Asia.
Example....You can get a man's suit in Primark for £40 ,I was selling them in the 1970's for that price !
4) Housing shortage and subsequent bubble in prices.

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

Digga said:

If you read a lot of the "how I done good" stories of the wealthy and famous, or indeed, if you talk to enough wealthy friends and acquaintances, one of the recurrent themes is luck. I am not generally talking about blind luck, or inferring hard work, enterprise or risk were absent - the latter is very often the biggest roll of the dice and where the luck really comes into it - but nonetheless, a lot of these people were extremely fortunate not to go bust, let alone avoid jail.

Furthermore, I am fairly sure anyone with a degree of honesty, introspection and analysis could probably point out one or two moments in their business lives where things went far, far better than they might otherwise, just as they can also likely pinpoint occasions where they grasped opportunities.

In many cases, my own included, bad luck is the spur to do something better. In my own case, after two redundancies in quick succession in my mid-thirties I decided that I couldn't afford to trust my future to anonymous employers based on another continent and that I'd better start looking after myself, so that's what I did, and it's worked out very well. Without that trigger I'd probably still be in the comfort zone picking up a relatively modest pay cheque every month, along with many, many others who could probably do better.

I'm thinking of instances like Duncan Bannatyne's self-admitted (in his autobiography) effective mortgage fraud, where he recruited his mum and her friends to fill seats in his first nursing home in order to get the bank to finance a second. The consequences of that, had the deceit been uncovered, would be serious and career ending. There are plenty of other examples.

[avinalarf]

Digga said:

RYH64E said:

Digga said:

If you read a lot of the "how I done good" stories of the wealthy and famous, or indeed, if you talk to enough wealthy friends and acquaintances, one of the recurrent themes is luck. I am not generally talking about blind luck, or inferring hard work, enterprise or risk were absent - the latter is very often the biggest roll of the dice and where the luck really comes into it - but nonetheless, a lot of these people were extremely fortunate not to go bust, let alone avoid jail.

Furthermore, I am fairly sure anyone with a degree of honesty, introspection and analysis could probably point out one or two moments in their business lives where things went far, far better than they might otherwise, just as they can also likely pinpoint occasions where they grasped opportunities.

In many cases, my own included, bad luck is the spur to do something better. In my own case, after two redundancies in quick succession in my mid-thirties I decided that I couldn't afford to trust my future to anonymous employers based on another continent and that I'd better start looking after myself, so that's what I did, and it's worked out very well. Without that trigger I'd probably still be in the comfort zone picking up a relatively modest pay cheque every month, along with many, many others who could probably do better.

I'm thinking of instances like Duncan Bannatyne's self-admitted (in his autobiography) effective mortgage fraud, where he recruited his mum and her friends to fill seats in his first nursing home in order to get the bank to finance a second. The consequences of that, had the deceit been uncovered, would be serious and career ending. There are plenty of other examples.

I have always been self employed and have never known what it's like to be an employee.
If you play it reasonably " straight " success it is usually a combination of a lot of hard work,long hours 6 to 7 days a week plus a modicum of "luck".
The luck is generally due using to the knowledge and experience gained over the years to take advantage of opportunities when the present themselves.

[Steffan]

avinalarf said:

Digga said:

RYH64E said:

Digga said:

If you read a lot of the "how I done good" stories of the wealthy and famous, or indeed, if you talk to enough wealthy friends and acquaintances, one of the recurrent themes is luck. I am not generally talking about blind luck, or inferring hard work, enterprise or risk were absent - the latter is very often the biggest roll of the dice and where the luck really comes into it - but nonetheless, a lot of these people were extremely fortunate not to go bust, let alone avoid jail.

Furthermore, I am fairly sure anyone with a degree of honesty, introspection and analysis could probably point out one or two moments in their business lives where things went far, far better than they might otherwise, just as they can also likely pinpoint occasions where they grasped opportunities.

In many cases, my own included, bad luck is the spur to do something better. In my own case, after two redundancies in quick succession in my mid-thirties I decided that I couldn't afford to trust my future to anonymous employers based on another continent and that I'd better start looking after myself, so that's what I did, and it's worked out very well. Without that trigger I'd probably still be in the comfort zone picking up a relatively modest pay cheque every month, along with many, many others who could probably do better.

I'm thinking of instances like Duncan Bannatyne's self-admitted (in his autobiography) effective mortgage fraud, where he recruited his mum and her friends to fill seats in his first nursing home in order to get the bank to finance a second. The consequences of that, had the deceit been uncovered, would be serious and career ending. There are plenty of other examples.

I have always been self employed and have never known what it's like to be an employee.
If you play it reasonably " straight " success it is usually a combination of a lot of hard work,long hours 6 to 7 days a week plus a modicum of "luck".
The luck is generally due using to the knowledge and experience gained over the years to take advantage of opportunities when the present themselves.

Very interesting series of opinions on this forum over the last few days as the comments above, amongst others, demonstrate. As AndyZarse and others suggest the point of critical mass, requiring major changes to the EU and their dodgy shenanigans, who must accept that serious changes are being reached within the electorate of many of the EU countries! I think it highly probable that the balance of power and polices within the EU, itself, will shift against many of the current practices, in consequence.

Times are visibly changing In the Western World and yesterday's policies, which is what have enabled the EU to indulge in the cooking of the books , are not going to continue much longer, I think? Brexit and the election of Donad Trump have actually happened at the very start of these changes! Time goes on in the fortunes of the EU, which are going to tumble steadily as the awful reality, of the consequences of what the EU have been doing, to fiddle the retention of obviously insolvent and failing Sovereign states, within the EU, and the extent of the losses this represents to the solvent members of the EU , becomes apparent within that community.

The Greek bailout is coming around to the point where aother tranche of Euro Millions will be required from the EU for Greece to be abe to remain within the Euro. The visible economic nonsense that this now represents is becoming laughable, I very much regret to say. There is simply no possibility of Greece recovering economically. Greece never was abe to afford this membership, never could afford ths membership and never will be abe to afford the membership.

The visible electoral unrest and dissatisfaction within the EU, is steadily rising and raising. Right wing parties are gaining more and more results and the likes of Le Pen and others riding a crest of a wave of concern within the EU electorate is something that, i for one, never wished to see, but I now, I fear is coming. Equally there is a growing concern about the continued arrival of immigrants seeking a better life within Europe.

No one can blame their attempts to effect exit from where they came, but , as Italy has found, all too quickly, to their cost, these influxes are beyond the resources and economies of the countries within Europe, who border the countries from whom these immigrants are fleeing as fast as possible.

As I have suggested previously, I am now seriously concerned, that the exit of the UK from the EU is likely to take longer than initially suggested, post Brexit and I am concerned that the reality of the wholly unsustainable tenant of the EU policies of supporting insolvent members, is going to become a deeply serious matter. This will involve billions Euros in loan being written diwn, within the EU, very possibly, before we are in any way protected from the losses being rearded as partly our probem? These losses must be eventslly, be sustained, and a huge amount of money will be involved.

The Donald Trump success story could only have occurred within the USA, I believe. He has done something that no other Hopeful President of the USA has ever achieved. The Washington apparatchiks clinging to the Clinton soap stand had one hell of a shock and the consequences to the Washington establishment will last for some time. I do not think the Washingtonians have even grasped the fact, as yet, that Donald will not accept any salary as President whatsoever. Never ever happened before!!

Compare that with the skimming and remuneration raking that has gone on under the Clinton Saga for years in the USA! I rather think the old Al Jolson catchphrase, says it all " You ain't seen Nothing Yet!!". My word, The Times Are A' Changing!

[davepoth]

Steffan said:

As I have suggested previously, I am now seriously concerned, that the exit of the UK from the EU is likely to take longer than initially suggested, post Brexit and I am concerned that the reality of the wholly unsustainable tenant of the EU policies of supporting insolvent members, is going to become a deeply serious matter. This will involve billions Euros in loan being written diwn, within the EU, very possibly, before we are in any way protected from the losses being rearded as partly our probem? These losses must be eventslly, be sustained, and a huge amount of money will be involved.

I'm not 100% convinced there will be an EU to leave, the way things are going. The EU bring to mind somebody who is holding the valve shut on a kettle because they don't like the whistling noise it's making. A bloody stupid idea, and if the pressure doesn't get released soon it's going to burst.

[Tony427]

I was watching newsnight yesterday evening and they interviewed the Dutch Finance Minister who was insistent that the Brexit deal would be a lose lose for both sides and that there was little room for negotiation even allowing for Merkel's softening of tone.

I was struck by his intrasigence and the fact that he seemed completely unaware of the truck roaring up behind him containing the multidudinous EU and Eurozone problems that will proabably see him out of his job in any event.

It was definitely EU business as normal.

The interviewer pointed out that there is £10 billion worth of trade at risk bewteen the UK and the Netherlands but the Dutch Finance Minister did not seem too concerned. Perhaps he needs to look at a bit deeper analysis of that trade.

For example, £666m of that trade is in cut flowers sold to the UK. Not high tech, blue chip manufacturing we would still buy, but a price sensitive discretionary purchase, currently under EU imposed tariff barriers of between 14 and 24 % on imports from flower producing countries such as Kenya and Chile etc. These tariff barriers have been protecting the Dutch growers who in recent years have also been producing under Government subsidies which is why our cut flower industry could not compete pricewise and has been decimated.

In short we could get cheaper flowers from elsewhere and replace his country's £666m trade in short measure.

Or perhaps we could grow our own flowers now that the Government subsidies to the Dutch growers are disappearing and their prices increase.

I wonder if the Dutch flower growers looking at a £666m drop in business, and the Dutch population as a whole who are not great EU supporters, are wholly behind the tough line taken by their present Finance Minister.

Cheers,

Tony

[Murph7355]

I also saw the Dutch guy on Newsnight. Another shining example of a politician who doesn't get it. Had a good dose of smug arrogance too. He must have been schooled in politics here.

[The Don of Croy]

Tony427 said:

Or perhaps we could grow our own flowers now that the Government subsidies to the Dutch growers are disappearing and their prices increase....

It's more than 30 years since I left the commercial hort sector, but in that time I've come across a lot more clog-wielding business people, and my impression is, even if they don't grow them they'll have plans to retain the middle man business (a position trading nations excel at). IMHO the dutch are in the premier league when it comes to negotiations (and pragmatic solutions).

As for our friendly euro - it and the EU will be around for a while yet. As figureheads of a belief system they retain their followers in the face of mere facts, at least while they have access to funding.