Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
jjlynn27 said:
And round and round we go. The thread was created 5-6 years ago. The euro is still here. Those are the very simple facts.
If the thread was titled 'Will Euro eventually disappear?' then it would have some legs. As it is; the answer was, and still is, no.
Why are you so hung up on a thread title?If the thread was titled 'Will Euro eventually disappear?' then it would have some legs. As it is; the answer was, and still is, no.
Driller said:
Tryke3 said:
What i do know is that Holland is one of the biggest exporter/growers
I kept an open mind up to a point and that point was right after the above phrase.David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
DMcW said:
The Bangladeshi selfie-stick hawkers are doing a brisk trade outside the Colosseum. Local chain-smoking lads dressed as gladiators prey on vulnerable tourists, while portly priests on their annual visit to Catholicism’s corporate HQ take time out from soul-searching.
Even the heavily armed soldiers, there to protect against a potential Italian Bataclan, are smiling in the Mediterranean sunshine. And as it is midday in Italy, everyone is checking out everyone else.
All looks quite normal, chilled out and as it should be.
But it is not. Italy is a country going through what could be described as a nervous breakdown.
After a decade of almost no economic growth, in two weeks Italians will vote in a referendum which will determine what direction this huge country of nearly 60 million people will take. The result will profoundly affect the EU.
Although the referendum is technically about the way Italy is governed, the country is split down the middle in a plebiscite that has come to symbolise something much bigger. Once again, like the Brexit vote and the Trump election, this referendum is about insiders against outsiders. It is about those who are the victims of inequality and globalisation and those who uphold the status quo.
On one side, you have the Italian political elite — the insiders embodied by Matteo Renzi, the youthful prime minister. He represents the people and institutions that have ruled Italy for decades.
On the other side, you have an unusual anti-EU coalition, the Left and the Right — the ‘Outsiders’ — who are united by a common belief that, after 10 years of economic stagnation, there must be another way.
We have the same picture we saw in the UK in June and in the US last week, where an elite is desperately trying to connect with the people and large swathes of the population are saying they have had enough.
In terms of the big picture, the Italian election can be seen as yet another domino in a year of falling dominos. First we had Brexit, then Trump, and the next big one for Europe after Italy is the potential rise of Le Pen in France.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms. This is what happens in politics; what starts as a feeling becomes a reality at the ballot box, not least because every election that goes against the elite gives “permission” for the next bunch of popular ‘Outsiders’ to scent victory.
Ms Le Pen has said she will pull out of the euro the morning after she wins. There’s no delaying Article 50 in her book. The Front National’s policy is an immediate withdrawal from the euro for France. In Italy, the two main parties backing a No vote in the referendum, the left-wing Five Star Movement and the right-wing Northern League, both want Italy to leave the euro and reinstate the lira. Right now, the only consolation for the elite is that they are behind in the polls; anyone who wants to win an election may be better off trailing in the polls!
But the reality for Italy (as for many countries, including Ireland) is that the euro has been a disaster. For years Italy, the Eurozone’s third largest economy, was pre-eminent in fashion, design, sophisticated manufacturing and car-making. All this was predicated on periodic devaluations of the lira against the deutsche mark, which allowed Italy to compete. This was the deal and everyone broadly understood it.
Once Italy joined the euro, this traditional avenue was closed off to Italian industry and it started to become uncompetitive. Italian industry couldn’t compete with Germany and, as Europe’s biggest debtor, Italy began to lose control over its own destiny. Following the last euro crisis, Italy has become, from a macroeconomic point of view, little more than a protectorate of Germany. And it hurts.
Young Italians have less chance of getting a job than almost any other nationality in Europe. Unemployment for the under thirties is running at a staggering 35%. Seven out of 10 Italians under the age of 36 live with their parents and 100,000 educated Italians left the country in search of work last year.
Real wages have stagnated and corporate Italy is not investing. All the while, the debt-to-GDP ratio – the highest in Europe – is going in the wrong direction.
Is it any wonder, with this sort of economic performance, that people want an alternative?
Could Italy turn its back on the EU? Of course it could. In fact, why wouldn’t it? Any country that can change sides in a world war is politically capable of changing its currency, don’t you think?
It’s clear when you are in Rome that something serious is going on. Behind the designer sunglasses, the impeccable three-day stubble, and the beautifully coiffed hair, Italy is deeply divided. Italy is experiencing, as was the case in Britain and in America, a popular insurgency.
Far-off Brussels is firmly in ostrich mode, head stuck in the ground, planning a hard Brexit to teach other “deplorables” a lesson. But what it doesn’t understand is that ‘Deplorable Lives Matter’!
And — worse for the EU that has proved itself to be electorally tone deaf time and again — deplorables vote too.
Mr Renzi, the EU’s man, asked for looser fiscal rules, but Germany vetoed it. Mr Renzi asked to be allowed to bail out his bust banks, but Germany refused.
Now Italy is about to embolden Ms Le Pen in France, and who is to blame?
Clearly not the Italians who are expressing their democratic wish, but the EU officials who didn’t listen to Mr Renzi, their Roman legate, when he looked for help.
As I marvel at the Colosseum, I can’t help thinking that Vespasian, the Roman Emperor who built the Colosseum and conquered Britain in the west and Judea in the east, would never have left one of his own with so little ammunition to fight a popular insurrection.
Even the heavily armed soldiers, there to protect against a potential Italian Bataclan, are smiling in the Mediterranean sunshine. And as it is midday in Italy, everyone is checking out everyone else.
All looks quite normal, chilled out and as it should be.
But it is not. Italy is a country going through what could be described as a nervous breakdown.
After a decade of almost no economic growth, in two weeks Italians will vote in a referendum which will determine what direction this huge country of nearly 60 million people will take. The result will profoundly affect the EU.
Although the referendum is technically about the way Italy is governed, the country is split down the middle in a plebiscite that has come to symbolise something much bigger. Once again, like the Brexit vote and the Trump election, this referendum is about insiders against outsiders. It is about those who are the victims of inequality and globalisation and those who uphold the status quo.
On one side, you have the Italian political elite — the insiders embodied by Matteo Renzi, the youthful prime minister. He represents the people and institutions that have ruled Italy for decades.
On the other side, you have an unusual anti-EU coalition, the Left and the Right — the ‘Outsiders’ — who are united by a common belief that, after 10 years of economic stagnation, there must be another way.
We have the same picture we saw in the UK in June and in the US last week, where an elite is desperately trying to connect with the people and large swathes of the population are saying they have had enough.
In terms of the big picture, the Italian election can be seen as yet another domino in a year of falling dominos. First we had Brexit, then Trump, and the next big one for Europe after Italy is the potential rise of Le Pen in France.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms. This is what happens in politics; what starts as a feeling becomes a reality at the ballot box, not least because every election that goes against the elite gives “permission” for the next bunch of popular ‘Outsiders’ to scent victory.
Ms Le Pen has said she will pull out of the euro the morning after she wins. There’s no delaying Article 50 in her book. The Front National’s policy is an immediate withdrawal from the euro for France. In Italy, the two main parties backing a No vote in the referendum, the left-wing Five Star Movement and the right-wing Northern League, both want Italy to leave the euro and reinstate the lira. Right now, the only consolation for the elite is that they are behind in the polls; anyone who wants to win an election may be better off trailing in the polls!
But the reality for Italy (as for many countries, including Ireland) is that the euro has been a disaster. For years Italy, the Eurozone’s third largest economy, was pre-eminent in fashion, design, sophisticated manufacturing and car-making. All this was predicated on periodic devaluations of the lira against the deutsche mark, which allowed Italy to compete. This was the deal and everyone broadly understood it.
Once Italy joined the euro, this traditional avenue was closed off to Italian industry and it started to become uncompetitive. Italian industry couldn’t compete with Germany and, as Europe’s biggest debtor, Italy began to lose control over its own destiny. Following the last euro crisis, Italy has become, from a macroeconomic point of view, little more than a protectorate of Germany. And it hurts.
Young Italians have less chance of getting a job than almost any other nationality in Europe. Unemployment for the under thirties is running at a staggering 35%. Seven out of 10 Italians under the age of 36 live with their parents and 100,000 educated Italians left the country in search of work last year.
Real wages have stagnated and corporate Italy is not investing. All the while, the debt-to-GDP ratio – the highest in Europe – is going in the wrong direction.
Is it any wonder, with this sort of economic performance, that people want an alternative?
Could Italy turn its back on the EU? Of course it could. In fact, why wouldn’t it? Any country that can change sides in a world war is politically capable of changing its currency, don’t you think?
It’s clear when you are in Rome that something serious is going on. Behind the designer sunglasses, the impeccable three-day stubble, and the beautifully coiffed hair, Italy is deeply divided. Italy is experiencing, as was the case in Britain and in America, a popular insurgency.
Far-off Brussels is firmly in ostrich mode, head stuck in the ground, planning a hard Brexit to teach other “deplorables” a lesson. But what it doesn’t understand is that ‘Deplorable Lives Matter’!
And — worse for the EU that has proved itself to be electorally tone deaf time and again — deplorables vote too.
Mr Renzi, the EU’s man, asked for looser fiscal rules, but Germany vetoed it. Mr Renzi asked to be allowed to bail out his bust banks, but Germany refused.
Now Italy is about to embolden Ms Le Pen in France, and who is to blame?
Clearly not the Italians who are expressing their democratic wish, but the EU officials who didn’t listen to Mr Renzi, their Roman legate, when he looked for help.
As I marvel at the Colosseum, I can’t help thinking that Vespasian, the Roman Emperor who built the Colosseum and conquered Britain in the west and Judea in the east, would never have left one of his own with so little ammunition to fight a popular insurrection.
alfie2244 said:
Art0ir said:
David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
Thanks for posting.DMcW said:
extremely good read.......
Cameron tried pretty hard to negotiate, and repeatedly warned of the possible consequences, Renzi has done the same. The EU, triumphant at seeing off the "small" countries revolt in Cyprus and Greece felt enabled to carry on with busines as usual and offered no concessions. (Despite conceding to France and Germany on the Grosth and Stability pact)
So you are going to get what you are going to get. Stand by for a lot more Tusk and Juncker guff about more Europe being the answer, and how the demos in democracy are all stupid little people.
jshell said:
alfie2244 said:
Art0ir said:
David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
Thanks for posting.DMcW said:
extremely good read.......
This is the crux:
DMcW said:
In terms of the big picture, the Italian election can be seen as yet another domino in a year of falling dominos. First we had Brexit, then Trump, and the next big one for Europe after Italy is the potential rise of Le Pen in France.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms.
Digga said:
jshell said:
alfie2244 said:
Art0ir said:
David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
Thanks for posting.DMcW said:
extremely good read.......
This is the crux:
DMcW said:
In terms of the big picture, the Italian election can be seen as yet another domino in a year of falling dominos. First we had Brexit, then Trump, and the next big one for Europe after Italy is the potential rise of Le Pen in France.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms.
There is a vast machine that tries to prevent the 'people' interfering with their plans.
jshell said:
Digga said:
jshell said:
alfie2244 said:
Art0ir said:
David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
Thanks for posting.DMcW said:
extremely good read.......
This is the crux:
DMcW said:
In terms of the big picture, the Italian election can be seen as yet another domino in a year of falling dominos. First we had Brexit, then Trump, and the next big one for Europe after Italy is the potential rise of Le Pen in France.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms.
There is a vast machine that tries to prevent the 'people' interfering with their plans.
Digga said:
jshell said:
alfie2244 said:
Art0ir said:
David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
Thanks for posting.DMcW said:
extremely good read.......
Either way it was a very interesting article
alfie2244 said:
Art0ir said:
David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
Thanks for posting.DMcW said:
extremely good read.......
"10 years of economic stagnation". "Mass unemployment" "A protectorate of Germany".
Well done the EU. Completely f
ked the third largest economy in the club. REALIST123 said:
alfie2244 said:
Art0ir said:
David McWilliams on the next domino to fall.
Thanks for posting.DMcW said:
extremely good read.......
"10 years of economic stagnation". "Mass unemployment" "A protectorate of Germany".
Well done the EU. Completely f
ked the third largest economy in the club. this quote from the article tells me the status quo is about to get a boot in the b
ks."Young Italians have less chance of getting a job than almost any other nationality in Europe. Unemployment for the under thirties is running at a staggering 35%. Seven out of 10 Italians under the age of 36 live with their parents and 100,000 educated Italians left the country in search of work last year.
do the eurocrats really expect people to put up with that indefinitely ? all this b
ks about the future of the eu. life is what happens while you are planning for the future,a future that in the current climate looks very bleak for young italians. i will be astounded if they do not force through change one way or another.wc98 said:
do the eurocrats really expect people to put up with that indefinitely ? all this bks about the future of the eu. life is what happens while you are planning for the future,a future that in the current climate looks very bleak for young italians. i will be astounded if they do not force through change one way or another.
I posted the video link below of Slavoj Žižek talking about the Trump thread, but it is equally apt here because the author also delivers a crushing opinion of liberal, left political elites in general. He's recently spoken about Brexit too and his views are interesting and very much aligned with how I perceive the reality to be - that voters all over the world are revolting against the corrupt elite. There is a zeitgeist.ks about the future of the eu. life is what happens while you are planning for the future,a future that in the current climate looks very bleak for young italians. i will be astounded if they do not force through change one way or another.Superb piece on the political disconnect with ordinary people and the voting backlash in USA: https://www.facebook.com/inthenow/videos/712162798...
.
Superb piece on the political disconnect with ordinary people and the voting backlash in USA: https://www.facebook.com/inthenow/videos/712162798...Very refreshing to read the extended arguments from a number of contributors on here over the last 48 hours or so including the excellent ones above! Well done lads!
Wc98 was absolutely on the button with his concerns about the all too apparent madness with the current EU fraudulent approach. The game is changing and the politicians will be forced, by overwhelming electoral changes, in voting, to recognise the reality of the weight of opinion being expressed by the electors, or be out of a job.
Excellent contribution from Digga as usual and he is absolutely correct in his recognition that a zeitgeist is coming just as the Brexit Referendum demonstrated and the remarkable USA election doubly underlined. No way this nonsense will continue for long!
I sincerely hope that these changes, will NOT include a severe swing to the right, in politics, otherwise the likes of Marie Le Pen might be catapulted into a position of power which I do not want to ever iwitness. I sincerely hope the memories of WWII will prevent that!
But any serious assessment of the consequences of the very significant level of dissatisfaction that has become all too apparent in western politics over the last few months is just too challenging for any political observer to ignore.
Hence my increasing concern as to whether the UK can in fact achieve Brexit well before the EU dreamworld hits the rocks, for hit the rocks the EU will. Make no mistake, as I have been banging on about for some time, on here, the political power within the EU politicians is no longer the deciding factor.
They are becoming yesterday's men because the transparent dishonesty and corruption and self serving slavering and gravy train riding that has been, going on and on, within the EU has resulted in desperate financial straights for the failing Sovereign states within the EU to the point where the countries just cannot continue.
Italy, for example, is in a dreadful state with the added problems of battling with hundreds of thousands of immigrants landing all along their shores. Youth unemployment has been rising and rising and rising for years. The "policy" of the EU has stunted all economic growth and this never was and still remains, hopelessly unsupportable.
I have no doubt that the crunch is coming to the dreamers and schemers running the EU currently. The times most certainly are changing and the indicators of the need for change are totally unarguable. Crunch time approaches.
Digga said:
wc98 said:
do the eurocrats really expect people to put up with that indefinitely ? all this bks about the future of the eu. life is what happens while you are planning for the future,a future that in the current climate looks very bleak for young italians. i will be astounded if they do not force through change one way or another.
I posted the video link below of Slavoj Žižek talking about the Trump thread, but it is equally apt here because the author also delivers a crushing opinion of liberal, left political elites in general. He's recently spoken about Brexit too and his views are interesting and very much aligned with how I perceive the reality to be - that voters all over the world are revolting against the corrupt elite. There is a zeitgeist.ks about the future of the eu. life is what happens while you are planning for the future,a future that in the current climate looks very bleak for young italians. i will be astounded if they do not force through change one way or another.Superb piece on the political disconnect with ordinary people and the voting backlash in USA: https://www.facebook.com/inthenow/videos/712162798...
Wc98 was absolutely on the button with his concerns about the all too apparent madness with the current EU fraudulent approach. The game is changing and the politicians will be forced, by overwhelming electoral changes, in voting, to recognise the reality of the weight of opinion being expressed by the electors, or be out of a job.
Excellent contribution from Digga as usual and he is absolutely correct in his recognition that a zeitgeist is coming just as the Brexit Referendum demonstrated and the remarkable USA election doubly underlined. No way this nonsense will continue for long!
I sincerely hope that these changes, will NOT include a severe swing to the right, in politics, otherwise the likes of Marie Le Pen might be catapulted into a position of power which I do not want to ever iwitness. I sincerely hope the memories of WWII will prevent that!
But any serious assessment of the consequences of the very significant level of dissatisfaction that has become all too apparent in western politics over the last few months is just too challenging for any political observer to ignore.
Hence my increasing concern as to whether the UK can in fact achieve Brexit well before the EU dreamworld hits the rocks, for hit the rocks the EU will. Make no mistake, as I have been banging on about for some time, on here, the political power within the EU politicians is no longer the deciding factor.
They are becoming yesterday's men because the transparent dishonesty and corruption and self serving slavering and gravy train riding that has been, going on and on, within the EU has resulted in desperate financial straights for the failing Sovereign states within the EU to the point where the countries just cannot continue.
Italy, for example, is in a dreadful state with the added problems of battling with hundreds of thousands of immigrants landing all along their shores. Youth unemployment has been rising and rising and rising for years. The "policy" of the EU has stunted all economic growth and this never was and still remains, hopelessly unsupportable.
I have no doubt that the crunch is coming to the dreamers and schemers running the EU currently. The times most certainly are changing and the indicators of the need for change are totally unarguable. Crunch time approaches.
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