Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Steffan said:
I have no doubt that the crunch is coming to the dreamers and schemers running the EU currently. The times most certainly are changing and the indicators of the need for change are totally unarguable. Crunch time approaches.
LOL, really Steffan how many times have you typed that, or words to that effect?Tryke3 said:
Im not delusional to be able to expand on stuff that i know nothing about unlike everyone here, who lately is full on a economics expert. What i do know is that Holland is one of the biggest exporter/growers and i do believe the dutch minister when he says hes not too worried about loosing the uk as a market, probably because he knows it'll still be cheaper for us to pay pay tarrifs on imports and still buy from them than import our own. Why is everyone trying to simplify everything as if its easy to import from Kenya or whatever, first of all we would need to outbid the Dutch who buy hundreds of millions at a time, but then again economics has nothing to do with brexit because we have lost our marbles
Tangent, but my wife is Kenyan, her family have just bought some land in Nanyuki near all the flower farms. I think the bigger farms already have some direct sales & delivery relationships with big UK buyers, like Valentines roses for Tesco. The huge greenhouses they have round there are amazing.AreOut said:
EUR is falling quickly these days against USD..how long until it hits parity? 
Before or after GBP achieves the same?Funny how EUR weakness is seen as terminal for the currency and the direct consequence of incompetence and mismanagement, whereas GBP weakness is seen as a long overdue correction which will boost exports and increase our prosperity.
RYH64E said:
AreOut said:
EUR is falling quickly these days against USD..how long until it hits parity?
Before or after GBP achieves the same?Funny how EUR weakness is seen as terminal for the currency and the direct consequence of incompetence and mismanagement, whereas GBP weakness is seen as a long overdue correction which will boost exports and increase our prosperity.
The catch for the Euro is a lower currency makes Winners (Germany) win bigger, they already have a huge trade surplus. Whilst it is also good news broadly for the whole zone, and brings inflation into play, if your economy is flat or in recession it is can help kick start it.
Usually dollar increases are bad news for Latin America as most of the debt is dollar denominated. less of an issue for Europe.
RYH64E said:
AreOut said:
EUR is falling quickly these days against USD..how long until it hits parity?
Before or after GBP achieves the same?Funny how EUR weakness is seen as terminal for the currency and the direct consequence of incompetence and mismanagement, whereas GBP weakness is seen as a long overdue correction which will boost exports and increase our prosperity.
It's farcical. When I mentioned that it was ridiculous that the head of the bank of England was lauding the falling pound as a "shock absorber" I was ridiculed in turn.
tertius said:
Steffan said:
I have no doubt that the crunch is coming to the dreamers and schemers running the EU currently. The times most certainly are changing and the indicators of the need for change are totally unarguable. Crunch time approaches.
LOL, really Steffan how many times have you typed that, or words to that effect?Driller said:
I know!
It's farcical. When I mentioned that it was ridiculous that the head of the bank of England was lauding the falling pound as a "shock absorber" I was ridiculed in turn.
Except the UK had suffered a shock. So it was unsurprising that the pound fell. It's farcical. When I mentioned that it was ridiculous that the head of the bank of England was lauding the falling pound as a "shock absorber" I was ridiculed in turn.
The Euro is in a long term one way slide.
There are differences if you look.
Gargamel said:
Except the UK had suffered a shock. So it was unsurprising that the pound fell.
The Euro is in a long term one way slide.
There are differences if you look.
A shock? The markets have decided that Brexit is a bad thing and the pound has weakened significantly as a resilt, but apparently that's a good thing as it makes our experts more competitive. Why is it good for us but bad for the EU? The Euro is in a long term one way slide.
There are differences if you look.
GBP has fallen steadily in recent years, it's not so long ago we were getting over 2 dollars to the pound, then pre-referendum 1.50, and today 1.23, hardly reassuring.
The UK is one country with socialised debt and taxation.
The Eurozone is not.
Germany would have a much higher Euro than say Portugal.
The pound has fallen, true. It may recover as the shock is priced in and other factors come into play. The same is true of the Euro. I agreed above a lower Euro is good news for the European economy generally. But not I think good for the Union of countries.
I don't see a difference, both a broadly positive for growth in both economies.
The Eurozone is not.
Germany would have a much higher Euro than say Portugal.
The pound has fallen, true. It may recover as the shock is priced in and other factors come into play. The same is true of the Euro. I agreed above a lower Euro is good news for the European economy generally. But not I think good for the Union of countries.
I don't see a difference, both a broadly positive for growth in both economies.
Escapegoat said:
Steffan has some AI thing running on his PC. Every time this thread is in danger of dropping off the first page of NP&E, his AI-bot autoposts a randomised version of something it posted a year ago. He thinks we don't notice.
He was pretty much right years ago.I had a dog,old thing,right mess.Could of kept him going for years pumping money into the vets to keep him going,could have even put him on doggy life support.
Amazing how you can keep something alive which should be long dead nowadays.I put him down,much kinder.No more suffering.
Caused me some pain but I recovered.
RYH64E said:
A shock? The markets have decided that Brexit is a bad thing and the pound has weakened significantly as a resilt, but apparently that's a good thing as it makes our experts more competitive. Why is it good for us but bad for the EU?
GBP has fallen steadily in recent years, it's not so long ago we were getting over 2 dollars to the pound, then pre-referendum 1.50, and today 1.23, hardly reassuring.
Not so long ago? Its over 8 years since the £ was worth over $2. The average since 2008 is around 1.50GBP has fallen steadily in recent years, it's not so long ago we were getting over 2 dollars to the pound, then pre-referendum 1.50, and today 1.23, hardly reassuring.
Against the Euro, the £ is currently at the average its been since 2009, it was at 1.04 at the start of 2009, far less than the current 1.16
As soon as trump was voted in, the Euro started to slide and the £ started to climb, its not good news for the EU and could be good news for the UK after 8 years of Obama who has been far more pro-EU than Trump will be.
jsf said:
Not so long ago? Its over 8 years since the £ was worth over $2. The average since 2008 is around 1.50
Against the Euro, the £ is currently at the average its been since 2009, it was at 1.04 at the start of 2009, far less than the current 1.16
As soon as trump was voted in, the Euro started to slide and the £ started to climb, its not good news for the EU and could be good news for the UK after 8 years of Obama who has been far more pro-EU than Trump will be.
It wasn't Trump that caused GBP to strengthen, it was the judges decision that Parliament has to have a say over Brexit. The markets are desperate for any sign that Brexit might be delayed, cancelled, or watered down.Against the Euro, the £ is currently at the average its been since 2009, it was at 1.04 at the start of 2009, far less than the current 1.16
As soon as trump was voted in, the Euro started to slide and the £ started to climb, its not good news for the EU and could be good news for the UK after 8 years of Obama who has been far more pro-EU than Trump will be.
RYH64E said:
jsf said:
Not so long ago? Its over 8 years since the £ was worth over $2. The average since 2008 is around 1.50
Against the Euro, the £ is currently at the average its been since 2009, it was at 1.04 at the start of 2009, far less than the current 1.16
As soon as trump was voted in, the Euro started to slide and the £ started to climb, its not good news for the EU and could be good news for the UK after 8 years of Obama who has been far more pro-EU than Trump will be.
It wasn't Trump that caused GBP to strengthen, it was the judges decision that Parliament has to have a say over Brexit. The markets are desperate for any sign that Brexit might be delayed, cancelled, or watered down.Against the Euro, the £ is currently at the average its been since 2009, it was at 1.04 at the start of 2009, far less than the current 1.16
As soon as trump was voted in, the Euro started to slide and the £ started to climb, its not good news for the EU and could be good news for the UK after 8 years of Obama who has been far more pro-EU than Trump will be.
As I posted earler the main driver around the fall from $2 for USD/GBP is mostly down to a capital movement reversion along with interest rates.
My opinion is that the continued fall EUR/USD is mostly down to capital starting to move from the eurozone into the U.S.A in preperation for
a) the $1trn USD Infrastructure package which will be announced in Q1.
Once the package is announced I would imagine that this capital will find its way into those deals
b) the huge, expected cut in the U.S corporation tax rate.
Building and modernising roads in the middle of nowhere in Spain and *insert ex-Soviet state here* won't cut it as a coherent European Infrastructure spending package against what the U.S is about to attempt.
Which begs the question, what infact is the Eurozones grand infrastructure strategy, do they actually have one?
My opinion is that the continued fall EUR/USD is mostly down to capital starting to move from the eurozone into the U.S.A in preperation for
a) the $1trn USD Infrastructure package which will be announced in Q1.
Once the package is announced I would imagine that this capital will find its way into those deals
b) the huge, expected cut in the U.S corporation tax rate.
Building and modernising roads in the middle of nowhere in Spain and *insert ex-Soviet state here* won't cut it as a coherent European Infrastructure spending package against what the U.S is about to attempt.
Which begs the question, what infact is the Eurozones grand infrastructure strategy, do they actually have one?
Edited by Carl_Manchester on Monday 21st November 19:55
I think many readers here may like today's Alex cartoon about the potential problems in the Italian banking system and bank stress tests.
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoons_id=5...
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoons_id=5...
RYH64E said:
jsf said:
Not so long ago? Its over 8 years since the £ was worth over $2. The average since 2008 is around 1.50
Against the Euro, the £ is currently at the average its been since 2009, it was at 1.04 at the start of 2009, far less than the current 1.16
As soon as trump was voted in, the Euro started to slide and the £ started to climb, its not good news for the EU and could be good news for the UK after 8 years of Obama who has been far more pro-EU than Trump will be.
It wasn't Trump that caused GBP to strengthen, it was the judges decision that Parliament has to have a say over Brexit. The markets are desperate for any sign that Brexit might be delayed, cancelled, or watered down.Against the Euro, the £ is currently at the average its been since 2009, it was at 1.04 at the start of 2009, far less than the current 1.16
As soon as trump was voted in, the Euro started to slide and the £ started to climb, its not good news for the EU and could be good news for the UK after 8 years of Obama who has been far more pro-EU than Trump will be.
Links to imf reports here https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-im...
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