The National Lottery Prize change Scandal - unreported

[TTmonkey]

The National Lottery as we all know is a bit of daylight robbery at the best of times. However, there is an as yet unreported scandal with the latest prize and odds structure, its hard to believe no one has brought this to the attention of the playing public.

I've been analysing the prize fund pay outs of August and November, before and after the change. The analysis is on the lesser prizes, as we all know the main prize is such long odds now that it usually rolls over.....

However, what's happened to the other prizes is remarkable.

Average number of people that win £25 per draw
Aug: 222,000 ---------- Nov: 126,000

Average number of people that Win Match 4 prize per darw:
Aug: 12,400 ---------- Nov: 5449
Average Prize for Match 4:
Aug: £74 ---------- Nov: £120

Average number of people that Win Match 5 prize per draw:
Aug: 240 ---------- Nov: 82
Average Prize for Match 5:
Aug: £731 ---------- Nov: £1275

Average number of people that win Match 5+Bonus Ball Per draw
Aug: 4.5 ---------- Nov: 0.8
Average Prize for Match 5+Bonus
Aug: £62000 ---------- Nov: £15084 ---NOTE - massively changed in real terms as week after week no one wins this prize

So a quick analysis of these numbers shows the following:

The number of people winning £25 minimum prize has fallen by 100,000 per draw
The number of people winning 4 numbers prize has fallen by 7000 per draw
The number of people winning 5 numbers prize has fallen by 160 per draw
The number of people winning 5+bonus prize is negligible now and is virtually unwinnable - in 8 draws in November the prize was only paid out ONCE.
The Jackpot rolls almost every draw.

This change is a scandal in my opinion. Too much is made of the fact that they give away free tickets for getting two numbers, when in effect they've made the second place prize unwinnable, and pay out the other prizes to far fewer players. Far fewer people are winning the lesser prizes as well as the jackpots.

The only draw in November that paid out 5+bonus was the only draw where all the numbers were below 49 (ie, pre rules change levels)

I don't believe the general public realises just how far the rules changes affects their chance of winning a smaller prize.

[Justayellowbadge]

And they made Wagon wheels smaller.

[Oakey]

But how many people were playing prior to the change and now?

[iphonedyou]

Oakey said:

But how many people were playing prior to the change and now?

Indeed. Unless I've missed it OP hasn't mentioned odds - which is really all that matters.

[Oakey]

iphonedyou said:

Indeed. Unless I've missed it OP hasn't mentioned odds - which is really all that matters.

He has a point though, sort of. When they made the change they were pitching more numbers as some sort of positive benefit; "More numbers to choose from!". That was how they spun it.

[tomw2000]

I got 4 numbers last Saturday and won £168.00!!!!!111111111111

Which doesn't cover a fraction of what I've spent on it over the years.

Gotta be in it, to win it

[Moonhawk]

It was reported 6 months ago.

The odds of winning prizes got worse by around a factor of 2 to 3.5 depending on the prize level.

Make the odds worse = fewer winners on average. It's basic stats.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3127201/Ba...

I suspect they made the change to make the lotto roll over more, which will create larger jackpots which are won less often.....just like the Euromillions.

[TTmonkey]

Oakey said:

But how many people were playing prior to the change and now?

So the Lottery don't release number on how many players are playing. Or at least I cant find the number online anywhere.

However, that still doesn't change the fact that as the odds on all prizes are dramatically changed, the number of winners of an actual prize are far fewer. The 5+bonus ball prize used to be the 'you almost won the jackpot' consolation prize. Every week in august people won this prize. Every draw, between 3 and 8 people won it, every week. In November, in 7 out of 8 draws, no one won this prize.

In August, this total prize fund for 5+bonus was £1,695,000. In November, the total prize fund for 5+bonus was £105,000. - - THIS IS A MASSIVE CON

In August, total prize fund for 3 numbers (£25) was £45 million. In November it fell to £25 million.

Winning a free go for 2 numbers has been used by the National Lottery as a disguise for the fact that actually they pay out way less than they used to in prize money, way less.

[kev1974]

thought everyone that played these things had switched to euromillions now.

[speedking31]

But as I understand it the total percentage of takings that is distributed as prize money is unchanged. Don't forget there are now raffles and millionaire draws to be considered. Therefore your chance of a certain % return on your 'investment' is unchanged.

All they've done is redistribute the prize structure to make it appear more attractive, thereby attracting more players than would have been the case previously. Therefore your chance of a certain absolute £ return on your 'investment' has increased.

IANALE etc.

[hairykrishna]

TTmonkey said:

THIS IS A MASSIVE CON

Not really. The prize structure is publicly available. Anyone can work out the odds.

The EV of the lottery is worse than basically any other form of gambling. The inducement for people to play it is that they are dreaming of a big prize; I suspect most people don't even register the small prizes in their winning fantasy.

[Foliage]

This didn't go unreported, your just really late to the party. It was reported at the time of the change and the kinda people who enter the lottery didn't seem bothered.

[SpeckledJim]

Unless you can say how many games were played in August and November, this is all totally useless information.

[TTmonkey]

Total sales for Aug 2015 is £180 million. This rose to approx £190 million in Nov. (I guess the increased jackpots caused by rollovers throughout November has driven some sales,

So they are making more money, but paying out far far less in prizes, even if you look at some increase in the special extra prizes.

[TTmonkey]

So to summarise, despite a rise in sales, the £25 prize has been won by 45% less people
The other prizes ave been won by way less than 50-60%
The top prizes have virtually not been paid out at all.

[Oakey]

I'm amazed sales went up. I tried the new format twice and never again.

[Hilts]

TTmonkey said:

The National Lottery as we all know is a bit of daylight robbery at the best of times. However, there is an as yet unreported scandal with the latest prize and odds structure, its hard to believe no one has brought this to the attention of the playing public.

I've been analysing the prize fund pay outs of August and November, before and after the change. The analysis is on the lesser prizes, as we all know the main prize is such long odds now that it usually rolls over.....

However, what's happened to the other prizes is remarkable.

Average number of people that win £25 per draw
Aug: 222,000 ---------- Nov: 126,000

Average number of people that Win Match 4 prize per darw:
Aug: 12,400 ---------- Nov: 5449
Average Prize for Match 4:
Aug: £74 ---------- Nov: £120

Average number of people that Win Match 5 prize per draw:
Aug: 240 ---------- Nov: 82
Average Prize for Match 5:
Aug: £731 ---------- Nov: £1275

Average number of people that win Match 5+Bonus Ball Per draw
Aug: 4.5 ---------- Nov: 0.8
Average Prize for Match 5+Bonus
Aug: £62000 ---------- Nov: £15084 ---NOTE - massively changed in real terms as week after week no one wins this prize

So a quick analysis of these numbers shows the following:

The number of people winning £25 minimum prize has fallen by 100,000 per draw
The number of people winning 4 numbers prize has fallen by 7000 per draw
The number of people winning 5 numbers prize has fallen by 160 per draw
The number of people winning 5+bonus prize is negligible now and is virtually unwinnable - in 8 draws in November the prize was only paid out ONCE.
The Jackpot rolls almost every draw.

This change is a scandal in my opinion. Too much is made of the fact that they give away free tickets for getting two numbers, when in effect they've made the second place prize unwinnable, and pay out the other prizes to far fewer players. Far fewer people are winning the lesser prizes as well as the jackpots.

The only draw in November that paid out 5+bonus was the only draw where all the numbers were below 49 (ie, pre rules change levels)

I don't believe the general public realises just how far the rules changes affects their chance of winning a smaller prize.

tl;dr

Any chance you can sum it up in a sentence (or two at a push).

Thanks.

[TTmonkey]

Oakey said:

I'm amazed sales went up. I tried the new format twice and never again.

Must be these rollovers that roll almost every week.

[groucho]

TTmonkey said:

So the Lottery don't release number on how many players are playing. Or at least I cant find the number online anywhere.

However, that still doesn't change the fact that as the odds on all prizes are dramatically changed, the number of winners of an actual prize are far fewer. The 5+bonus ball prize used to be the 'you almost won the jackpot' consolation prize. Every week in august people won this prize. Every draw, between 3 and 8 people won it, every week. In November, in 7 out of 8 draws, no one won this prize.

In August, this total prize fund for 5+bonus was £1,695,000. In November, the total prize fund for 5+bonus was £105,000. - - THIS IS A MASSIVE CON

In August, total prize fund for 3 numbers (£25) was £45 million. In November it fell to £25 million.

Winning a free go for 2 numbers has been used by the National Lottery as a disguise for the fact that actually they pay out way less than they used to in prize money, way less.

Wasn't the 3 number prize £10?

[TTmonkey]

Hilts said:

tl;dr

Any chance you can sum it up in a sentence (or two at a push).

Thanks.

The lesser prizes are being paid out to far fewer people. The largest lower prize 5+ bonus ball isn't being paid out at all nearly all draws.