Is the turnaround in sight?

[youngsyr]

Over the past twenty-four hours some financial commentators have been flirting with the idea that we are at the bottom of the recession and a recovery is about to start.

Obviously these guys (analyst at Schroeders on Newsnight yesterday and columnist in City A.M. this morning) have a vested interest in being bullish, but they cite a(n admittedly extremely short term in a volatile market) 200 point rise in the FTSE last week and a promising first quarter for several banks as indicators.

I was wondering what the varied people who mingle in this forum hold as their estimate for when the turnaround will begin. I believe the CBI state late summer 2010 at the earliest?

[youngsyr]

For the record, I don't consider myself to be anywhere near qualified to have even a half-assed attempt at predicting when the turnaround will come, but for those who say "Not for a long time yet", what are you basing your opinion on?

What factors are you looking for that would indicate that the turnaround has begun?