Meet the Fokkers

Author
Discussion

Jockman

17,925 posts

162 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
This is interesting:

article said:
"The good news is that income disparities between rich and poor have not widened since the crisis and may even have narrowed: since 2007, the poorest 20% of households have seen disposable incomes rise by 5%, while the richest 20% have seen them fall by the same amount".
Edited by sidicks on Sunday 14th August 19:48
Unexpected, for sure. It was widely assumed that 13 years of Labour widened the gap.

ThunderGuts

12,231 posts

196 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
There was a graph posted some time back which showed what you're quoting.


I'll be buggered if I can find it tho. Basically shows the top x% were funding the bottom x% due to an effective tax shift.

drainbrain

5,637 posts

113 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
ThunderGuts said:
I'm still going to take the route of putting money aside wink
Won't work for Joe Average. And for one really simple reason. The order of magnitude by which you'd have to increase contribution to bring those inadequate pensions up to adequate simply isn't there even if you lockdown lifestyle spending to zero.

And we haven't even started on how he's to buy that house before he's 45…...

ThunderGuts

12,231 posts

196 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
drainbrain said:
Won't work for Joe Average. And for one really simple reason. The order of magnitude by which you'd have to increase contribution to bring those inadequate pensions up to adequate simply isn't there even if you lockdown lifestyle spending to zero.

And we haven't even started on how he's to buy that house before he's 45…...
Mr & Mrs average will have a household salary of around £55k, that's a nice number to play with, as long as you're not in the pricy bits like London. If you're in the public services you'll even benefit from the pension advantage over mr private sector.


eta: Your point does also back up the assertion made by many:

start early!

sidicks

25,218 posts

223 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
drainbrain said:
Won't work for Joe Average. And for one really simple reason. The order of magnitude by which you'd have to increase contribution to bring those inadequate pensions up to adequate simply isn't there even if you lockdown lifestyle spending to zero.
Any extra saving is going to improve matters and mean less reliance on others. If that means foregoing a new car for couple of years then it's a price worth paying in my opinion. If it means living hand to mouth and struggling to get by, then it is not.

drainbrain said:
And we haven't even started on how he's to buy that house before he's 45…...
Home ownership is much lower on the continent, isn't it, where they choose to rent rather than buy? Assuming that renting is cheaper than buying (once interest rates return to normal level) and we start building more houses, is this a feasible way forward?

Do people need to own their own houses?

avinalarf

Original Poster:

6,438 posts

144 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
One point that he raises is "the inter- generational faultline", and that those over 65 have done well.
I think that most of this gain is to those over 65's that own their own house,where property inflation has seen this asset grow substantially in value.
However we all know the phrase the bank of mum and dad.
It's a personal choice how we treat our kids,but I do not think I'm alone in giving my three daughters a substantial amount to help them buy a modest property in London.
Without my help ,even though they all have a decent paying job,it would have proved impossible for now,and not knowing where London prices are going in the next 10 years,maybe not until I passed way.
I preferred to have the pleasure of seeing them "settled" whilst I was alive.
So asset rich but relatively cash poor.


sidicks

25,218 posts

223 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
avinalarf said:
One point that he raises is "the inter- generational faultline", and that those over 65 have done well.
I think that most of this gain is to those over 65's that own their own house,where property inflation has seen this asset grow substantially in value.
However we all know the phrase the bank of mum and dad.
It's a personal choice how we treat our kids,but I do not think I'm alone in giving my three daughters a substantial amount to help them buy a modest property in London.
Without my help ,even though they all have a decent paying job,it would have proved impossible for now,and not knowing where London prices are going in the next 10 years,maybe not until I passed way.
I preferred to have the pleasure of seeing them "settled" whilst I was alive.
So asset rich but relatively cash poor.
I think you are correct, but don't also forget that over the last 5 or 6 years pensioners have benefited from the 'Triple lock' that sees the state pensions increase at the greater of inflation, average earnings and a minimum of 2.5%.

avinalarf

Original Poster:

6,438 posts

144 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
drainbrain said:
Won't work for Joe Average. And for one really simple reason. The order of magnitude by which you'd have to increase contribution to bring those inadequate pensions up to adequate simply isn't there even if you lockdown lifestyle spending to zero.
Any extra saving is going to improve matters and mean less reliance on others. If that means foregoing a new car for couple of years then it's a price worth paying in my opinion. If it means living hand to mouth and struggling to get by, then it is not.

drainbrain said:
And we haven't even started on how he's to buy that house before he's 45…...
Home ownership is much lower on the continent, isn't it, where they choose to rent rather than buy? Assuming that renting is cheaper than buying (once interest rates return to normal level) and we start building more houses, is this a feasible way forward?

Do people need to own their own houses?
No they don't and in theory your comments about renting require an answer.
I visited both Spain and Portugal this year and spoke to several well educated,charming youngsters aged 25-30.
As you know unemployment is very high.
Even if they get a job it might well pay circa €500 a month,not much use when the rental on a studio flat is circa €450 a month.

Edited 'cos I got the figures around the wrong way,doesn't make a lot of difference though.

Edited by avinalarf on Sunday 14th August 20:41

ThunderGuts

12,231 posts

196 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
One of the things I'd be interested to see the numbers on is how (if at all) parents helping their children buy in Lond / Bristol etc has further inflated the bubble (st I used the panic word wink )

It's the thing I'd do should my spawn want to settle there though, so by no way am I criticising.

The oriental cash is impacting higher up property, the ecosystem of the 'lower end' London market would be interesting to study.

sidicks

25,218 posts

223 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
avinalarf said:
No they don't and in theory your comments about renting require an answer.
I visited both Spain and Portugal this year and spoke to several well educated,charming youngsters aged 25-30.
As you know unemployment is very high.
Even if they get a job it might well pay circa €450 a month,not much use when the rental on a studio flat is circa €500 a month.
Unfortunately that's one of the problems with the Euro (and the lack of productivity development in Southern European countries) - they can't depreciate their currencies to make their economy more competitive. The "one size fits all" approach clearly doesn't work.

In those countries where owning a home isn't so widespread, presumably retirement saving must be that much higher so that they can afford to fund rent post retirement?

avinalarf

Original Poster:

6,438 posts

144 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
avinalarf said:
No they don't and in theory your comments about renting require an answer.
I visited both Spain and Portugal this year and spoke to several well educated,charming youngsters aged 25-30.
As you know unemployment is very high.
Even if they get a job it might well pay circa €450 a month,not much use when the rental on a studio flat is circa €500 a month.
Unfortunately that's one of the problems with the Euro (and the lack of productivity development in Southern European countries) - they can't depreciate their currencies to make their economy more competitive. The "one size fits all" approach clearly doesn't work.

In those countries where owning a home isn't so widespread, presumably retirement saving must be that much higher so that they "can afford to fund rent post retirement?
I speak to a fair few from the eastern bloc...Poland ,Hungary,Slovakia,Slovenia,Czech Republic........
same story.
Although Poland is picking up a bit.
Have you read Irwin Stelzer article on Trump and Clinton,same page on the right.
So what do I ,a layman conclude .....
The U.K. The USA and most of Europe in trouble.....economies being kept afloat by government intervention in the markets,
QE etc
The euro a busted flush only there because of some grand socio political adventure.
I haven't enough knowledge to say how share prices are being affected but I'd hazard a guess that they are artificially too high.
Also an article in Elliot re deflation......
Add to this mix the possibility of deflation....apparent already in oil and commodity prices
Add to this the end of cheap loans.
Well you tell me where you think this is leading ?

Edited by avinalarf on Sunday 14th August 20:57

sidicks

25,218 posts

223 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
avinalarf said:
I speak to a fair few from the eastern bloc...Poland ,Hungary,Slovakia,Slovenia,Czech Republic........
same story.
Although Poland is picking up a bit.
Have you read Irwin Stelzer article on Trump and Clinton,same page on the right.
So what do I ,a layman conclude .....
The U.K. The USA and most of Europe in trouble.....economies being kept afloat by government intervention in the markets,
QE etc
The EU a busted flush only there because of some grand socio political adventure.
I haven't enough knowledge to say how share prices are being affected but I'd hazard a guess that they are artificially too high.
Also an article in Elliot re deflation......
Add to this mix the possibility of deflation....apparent already in oil and commodity prices
Add to this the end of cheap loans.
Well you tell me where you think this is leading ?
Certainly when interest rates starts to rise and credit becomes harder to access, people will realise that a standard of living funded by borrowing is simply not an affordable standard of living!


drainbrain

5,637 posts

113 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
ThunderGuts said:
drainbrain said:
Won't work for Joe Average. And for one really simple reason. The order of magnitude by which you'd have to increase contribution to bring those inadequate pensions up to adequate simply isn't there even if you lockdown lifestyle spending to zero.

And we haven't even started on how he's to buy that house before he's 45…...
Mr & Mrs average will have a household salary of around £55k, that's a nice number to play with, as long as you're not in the pricy bits like London. If you're in the public services you'll even benefit from the pension advantage over mr private sector.


eta: Your point does also back up the assertion made by many:

start early!
Well I could be wrong here, but I think things are getting a bit confused.

Firstly, when did this young person starting early with the saving for that far off pension and own home suddenly get married!

Secondly where did the assumption that they're earning £55k between them come from?

Is that the assumption that they're both earning the UK average wage? Because that average wage is arrived at by also including a lot of big beefy six and even seven figure salaries is it not? Millions upon millions of younger people especially all the ones with minimal or no qualifications or with meaningless qualifications or nonsensical ones either don't have a job or much chance of getting one or are working for on or near the minimum wage which is well below £27.5k gross. The ones below 18 work on an even lower minimum wage. And many are in these new style 'jobs' which aren't really jobs and pay commission only to the tiny percentage of people who get involved in them who actually manage to make anything at all. Apprenticeships are like gold dust and paid dreadfully and of course there's the huge number of new-style self employed and zero hours people who get basically abused too and work for peanuts. In many parts of urban Britain, £15k is considered ok and £20k is considered a really very good salary especially for a younger person.

Bear in mind also that your theory of improving their lot by adhering to a doctrine of lifestyle austerity and future gratification means that to make that future gratification happen is going to require every penny they earn spent on it, and - in my opinion though I think not yours - to make it MEANINGFUL is going to be way way beyond their ability.

Let's define "starting early" as well. In this dark Kafkaesque social scenario where young workers sacrifice all lifestyle expenditure are we talking starting to buy a house and retirement from first school leaver job? I'd love to see you sell that one to your kids. Or do they get to enjoy their wages till that wage is meaningful enough to make the saving from it meaningful? In which case you're back to where we are just now. No house till you're middle aged and no meaningful pension fund at all.

Sorry, but I'm becoming more convinced that a different approach requiring a shift in - what's it called is it 'cultural paradigm' -is needed, because this 'throw more money at it' solution is based on very sandy ground. This extra funding to augment pensions and speed housing purchase- rented or bought- simply does not exist, nor does the ability to raise it, unless you're going to show me how?








sidicks

25,218 posts

223 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
drainbrain said:
Well I could be wrong here, but I think things are getting a bit confused.

Firstly, when did this young person starting early with the saving for that far off pension and own home suddenly get married!

Secondly where did the assumption that they're earning £55k between them come from?

Is that the assumption that they're both earning the UK average wage? Because that average wage is arrived at by also including a lot of big beefy six and even seven figure salaries is it not? Millions upon millions of younger people especially all the ones with minimal or no qualifications or with meaningless qualifications or nonsensical ones either don't have a job or much chance of getting one or are working for on or near the minimum wage which is well below £27.5k gross. The ones below 18 work on an even lower minimum wage. And many are in these new style 'jobs' which aren't really jobs and pay commission only to the tiny percentage of people who get involved in them who actually manage to make anything at all. Apprenticeships are like gold dust and paid dreadfully and of course there's the huge number of new-style self employed and zero hours people who get basically abused too and work for peanuts. In many parts of urban Britain, £15k is considered ok and £20k is considered a really very good salary especially for a younger person.

Bear in mind also that your theory of improving their lot by adhering to a doctrine of lifestyle austerity and future gratification means that to make that future gratification happen is going to require every penny they earn spent on it, and - in my opinion though I think not yours - to make it MEANINGFUL is going to be way way beyond their ability.

Let's define "starting early" as well. In this dark Kafkaesque social scenario where young workers sacrifice all lifestyle expenditure are we talking starting to buy a house and retirement from first school leaver job? I'd love to see you sell that one to your kids. Or do they get to enjoy their wages till that wage is meaningful enough to make the saving from it meaningful? In which case you're back to where we are just now. No house till you're middle aged and no meaningful pension fund at all.

Sorry, but I'm becoming more convinced that a different approach requiring a shift in - what's it called is it 'cultural paradigm' -is needed, because this 'throw more money at it' solution is based on very sandy ground. This extra funding to augment pensions and speed housing purchase- rented or bought- simply does not exist, nor does the ability to raise it, unless you're going to show me how?
I think you're reading much more into what people are saying that is actually intended?

I think the key point is that:
1) the sooner you start saving (in whatever manner) the greater the benefit of compound interest
2) getting into a habit of saving early on is a good one
3) deferred consumption means reduced 'frivolous' spending - it doesn't have to mean massive 'austerity'

In the 'good old days' people generally only borrowed to buy a house, they had to save for other purchases. Nowadays, buying on finance ('can i afford the monthly payment') is seemingly the key focus, regardless of the total cost of any particular item.


avinalarf

Original Poster:

6,438 posts

144 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
Well braindrain....your conclusions about needing a rethink on how an economy should be run so that it benefits the majority is the same conclusion I came to.
And you lot ,don't think for one moment that I'm a closet Jeremy supporter,cos I ain't .
I just want to leave all our kids a decent society to live in.
Where they can have reasonable aspirations and dare to dream.
Like I did a child of the '60's.
Maybe this is just a bad hiccup,a perfect storm of bad events,the 2008 financial crisis the euro ,the whole EU adventure,and then the political problems in the ME and Africa,it's a real bleedin mess.
Any answers anyone ?

sidicks

25,218 posts

223 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
avinalarf said:
Well braindrain....your conclusions about needing a rethink on how an economy should be run so that it benefits the majority is the same conclusion I came to.
And you lot ,don't think for one moment that I'm a closet Jeremy supporter,cos I ain't .
I just want to leave all our kids a decent society to live in.
Where they can have reasonable aspirations and dare to dream.
Like I did a child of the '60's.
Maybe this is just a bad hiccup,a perfect storm of bad events,the 2008 financial crisis the euro ,the whole EU adventure,and then the political problems in the ME and Africa,it's a real bleedin mess.
Any answers anyone ?
According to the article you posted, income inequality has reduced significantly in the last 8 years or so.

ThunderGuts

12,231 posts

196 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
I think you're reading much more into what people are saying that is actually intended?

I think the key point is that:
1) the sooner you start saving (in whatever manner) the greater the benefit of compound interest
2) getting into a habit of saving early on is a good one
3) deferred consumption means reduced 'frivolous' spending - it doesn't have to mean massive 'austerity'

In the 'good old days' people generally only borrowed to buy a house, they had to save for other purchases. Nowadays, buying on finance ('can i afford the monthly payment') is seemingly the key focus, regardless of the total cost of any particular item.
That's the nail on the head.

Drain - you need to be careful how you use the word 'average' too wink

mikees

2,758 posts

174 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
I commented on another thread about lack of pension saving but this one seems to heading into better discussion.

I was talking about medium or more higher earners.

With regard to lower-ish earners. If you earn 25k and then retire, the state pension is 600 quid a month. Plus housing benefit to cover the 500 quid rent (say) leaving a gap of 500 quid from previous earnings. No commuting, etc so actually as per now as braindrain says " do able"

This issue for me is the 70-90k folks with mortgage and leased cars not saving. Much bigger gap and much bigger impact.

It's these that Sid is usually talking about. I suspect the really hardup could be OK on state pension and benefits ( whether this is right is a diff matter). It's the better off who will see a shock.

Equity release? Maybe. Thus housing market impact as mass sell off to fund retirement..

I'm not worried from a personal perspective as I've been lucky (worked hard, saved, but still lucky) but care for society as lack of preparation for retirement will be a time bomb for us all whether we've prepared or not.

Lots of people will be fked and that's not a society I want to live in, even if it's their lack of foresight that has caused it. Not sure how we fix it. Legislated % of income above a certain level as future provision, pension, btl, savings or otherwise?


Mike

avinalarf

Original Poster:

6,438 posts

144 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
And another thing my friends.....
Europe the UK ,the USA and whole swathes of the World have economies based on consumerism.
Now more than ever before.
And that terrible new cult of celebrity.
Youngsters bombarded with ads and music promos and tv "reality" programmes offering them everything their hearts desire and just a click of the mouse and it's theirs.
The Kadashians and Beckhams anybody ?
So however well intentioned and financially literate,however logical and well informed your comments are,surely they pall into insignificance when you have the power of large corporations preying on this young generation.
The Googles ,the Nikes, the Apples, Grazia style mags, the celebs all saying "look at us " you can join us ,you can be us,
No they cannot
Where is the message that I was taught as a child by my parents and teachers.......Hard work,save prudently,respect your elders,maybe they should all join PH and pray at the altar of sidicks.
I was taught this by my parents and observed their strong work ethic.
Not by listening to X factors or the Kardashians or some fantasising blog written by a 15 year old in her bedroom.
They are being told that with a miniscule of "talent" they can become successful and be a multi millionaire.
Or they watch "A life on benefits " and think "we'll have a bit of that".
Now before you all have a go at me....
Yes,I'm generalising.
There are plenty of kids that don't fall for that above rubbish,but I think you may agree that it is of a very corrosive nature and certainly isn't helping.

sidicks

25,218 posts

223 months

Sunday 14th August 2016
quotequote all
avinalarf said:
And another thing my friends.....
Europe the UK ,the USA and whole swathes of the World have economies based on consumerism.
Now more than ever before.
And that terrible new cult of celebrity.
Youngsters bombarded with ads and music promos and tv "reality" programmes offering them everything their hearts desire and just a click of the mouse and it's theirs.
The Kadashians and Beckhams anybody ?
So however well intentioned and financially literate,however logical and well informed your comments are,surely they pall into insignificance when you have the power of large corporations preying on this young generation.
The Googles ,the Nikes, the Apples, Grazia style mags, the celebs all saying "look at us " you can join us ,you can be us,
No they cannot
Where is the message that I was taught as a child by my parents and teachers.......Hard work,save prudently,respect your elders,maybe they should all join PH and pray at the altar of sidicks.
I was taught this by my parents and observed their strong work ethic.
Not by listening to X factors or the Kardashians or some fantasising blog written by a 15 year old in her bedroom.
They are being told that with a miniscule of "talent" they can become successful and be a multi millionaire.
Or they watch "A life on benefits " and think "we'll have a bit of that".
Now before you all have a go at me....
Yes,I'm generalising.
There are plenty of kids that don't fall for that above rubbish,but I think you may agree that it is of a very corrosive nature and certainly isn't helping.
beer