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DonkeyApple

55,911 posts

171 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
Biggles111 said:
Donkey Apple is largely right. This can be no better than a gamble with dice loaded against you if you are not careful. However, the fun is spotting the 5% of companies/projects that have real potential, out of all the chaff. This is difficult to impossible to do based on just a casual look, although even a quick look will tell you what is definitely not worth considering.

In the mining sector there is money made, for example through private (unlisted) placements on early stage projects that subsequently list or are sold, for example to the Chinese. What differentiates the good from the bad is having enough sustaining capital, as it is a long slow road to development and you do not want to be diluted every few months after they burn through the cash, a well proven team (if they have made money once in a previous company they will do it again), and of course some ground with real licences with real potential. I imagine that oil is similar. Even with all this you may lose it all.

If you really want to have a go and don't want to lose your money then review the above points with whatever investment you consider. Bear in mind that you may well still lose it; as the saying goes these are not for widows and orphans.

Edited by Biggles111 on Tuesday 12th October 12:25
+1

Most 'holes in the ground' can be spotted within minutes by looking at who is on the Board, who supplied the first round of financing before they go to the public, which NOMADs are involved and who is doing the PR.

A day's research on Google will bring to light a startling realisation of the people in this special 'boy's club' who are simply building shells and churning them out to mugs.



cocopop

1,300 posts

207 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
Any tips on who to look out for?

DonkeyApple

55,911 posts

171 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
cocopop said:
Any tips on who to look out for?
You see, this is where it begins to go wrong for people.

I've said that just one day on Google will allow you to see your own pattern and produce your own list but already you want to cut corners and not do the work yourself. Lazy = Unlucky. biggrin

cocopop

1,300 posts

207 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
cocopop said:
Any tips on who to look out for?
You see, this is where it begins to go wrong for people.

I've said that just one day on Google will allow you to see your own pattern and produce your own list but already you want to cut corners and not do the work yourself. Lazy = Unlucky. biggrin
Oh I have a few names already. But yeah, lazy + hoping for some tips = you been told!
getmecoat

KenBlocksPants

6,118 posts

186 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
cocopop said:
DonkeyApple said:
cocopop said:
Any tips on who to look out for?
You see, this is where it begins to go wrong for people.

I've said that just one day on Google will allow you to see your own pattern and produce your own list but already you want to cut corners and not do the work yourself. Lazy = Unlucky. biggrin
Oh I have a few names already. But yeah, lazy + hoping for some tips = you been told!
getmecoat
= broke

You need to be dedicated to be a successful private investor, research as much as you can. I do every day as part of my routine. You can load the dice more in your favour, but remember they are still dice and you can roll snake eyes


Fittster

20,120 posts

215 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
KenBlocksPants said:
cocopop said:
DonkeyApple said:
cocopop said:
Any tips on who to look out for?
You see, this is where it begins to go wrong for people.

I've said that just one day on Google will allow you to see your own pattern and produce your own list but already you want to cut corners and not do the work yourself. Lazy = Unlucky. biggrin
Oh I have a few names already. But yeah, lazy + hoping for some tips = you been told!
getmecoat
= broke

You need to be dedicated to be a successful private investor, research as much as you can. I do every day as part of my routine. You can load the dice more in your favour, but remember they are still dice and you can roll snake eyes
Lazy in the right way will beat most active investor, both private and professional.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Stre...

The idle shall inherit the earth.


Although not on PH where everyone wins on every deal, sleeps with supermodels, drives a supercar, etc

Edited by Fittster on Tuesday 12th October 15:10

sagt550

231 posts

190 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
Interesting point an earlier poster made about just learning about one sector and then maybe doing some investing. As someone that is looking to start out and would like to take this approach, are there any sectors that are to be avoided or are trickier to learn about ? I notice a lot of people tend to go for oil/gas - is this down to the relative simplicity of the industry compared to others or is it just the area that is making money at the moment ?

Biggles111

460 posts

265 months

Tuesday 12th October 2010
quotequote all
cocopop said:
Any tips on who to look out for?
I know a few, some very successful, and not all of which were listed. You need though to find the opportunities for yourself. What I can say is that if you go to www.minesite.com and register you will have access to a lot of background that will help you get your teeth into this sector, if you wish to specialise in it. Watch out though, much of the info on individual companies is very bullish, not surprising when they pay for some of the coverage.

They do run 'minesite forums' for investors - an interesting chance to hear 5 companies give their pitch. Don't get sucked in immediately but you will start to get a nose for what makes one company different from the others.

After this if you find something that you like PM me if it helps and I am happy to run a critical eye over a junior mining company, I've worked for a few of them and invested in more, won on some and lost some...




isee

3,713 posts

185 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
Here is a simple strategy for all those who are starting out.
Invest into big companies that are going through a dip. I bought Barclay, icap, BP, BA and Des this year when their shares were in a bit of a hole. invested 9k and made 8k so far.

I know the growth is not phenomenal (well it is in my book, but probably not for a punter who thinks investing 1k now will give them 10k per month for life), but for the risk versus reward it is as good as it gets imho.

Fittster

20,120 posts

215 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
isee said:
Here is a simple strategy for all those who are starting out.
Invest into big companies that are going through a dip. I bought Barclay, icap, BP, BA and Des this year when their shares were in a bit of a hole. invested 9k and made 8k so far.

I know the growth is not phenomenal (well it is in my book, but probably not for a punter who thinks investing 1k now will give them 10k per month for life), but for the risk versus reward it is as good as it gets imho.
How well did you do on Marconi and XL?

Republik

4,525 posts

192 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
CAD looks like it is starting to head in the right direct. FIngers crossed.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

244 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
Fittster said:
isee said:
Here is a simple strategy for all those who are starting out.
Invest into big companies that are going through a dip. I bought Barclay, icap, BP, BA and Des this year when their shares were in a bit of a hole. invested 9k and made 8k so far.

I know the growth is not phenomenal (well it is in my book, but probably not for a punter who thinks investing 1k now will give them 10k per month for life), but for the risk versus reward it is as good as it gets imho.
How well did you do on Marconi and XL?
Indeed. Captain HindSightBias is alive and well.

isee

3,713 posts

185 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
Fittster said:
isee said:
Here is a simple strategy for all those who are starting out.
Invest into big companies that are going through a dip. I bought Barclay, icap, BP, BA and Des this year when their shares were in a bit of a hole. invested 9k and made 8k so far.

I know the growth is not phenomenal (well it is in my book, but probably not for a punter who thinks investing 1k now will give them 10k per month for life), but for the risk versus reward it is as good as it gets imho.
How well did you do on Marconi and XL?
I didn't buy those.
do I get your message right?

"Sharedleaing carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may lose significantly more than your initial margin payment. As such, Share trading is not suitable for all types of investor. If you are uncertain, consult your financial adviser before you trade in shares."

Fittster

20,120 posts

215 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
isee said:
Fittster said:
isee said:
Here is a simple strategy for all those who are starting out.
Invest into big companies that are going through a dip. I bought Barclay, icap, BP, BA and Des this year when their shares were in a bit of a hole. invested 9k and made 8k so far.

I know the growth is not phenomenal (well it is in my book, but probably not for a punter who thinks investing 1k now will give them 10k per month for life), but for the risk versus reward it is as good as it gets imho.
How well did you do on Marconi and XL?
I didn't buy those.
do I get your message right?

"Sharedleaing carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may lose significantly more than your initial margin payment. As such, Share trading is not suitable for all types of investor. If you are uncertain, consult your financial adviser before you trade in shares."
So your simple strategy isn't all that simple. How are you determining which companies are going to go back up in value and which are going all they way down to 0?

How are you determining what a big company is?

If you are simply backing all companies who have suffered a big share price drop sooner or later you can going to take a big hit.

isee

3,713 posts

185 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
My strategy is simple insofar that it carries a lower risk than investing into 10 startups hoping for just 1 hit that will outweigh the loss on the other 9.

My simple strategy is essentailly "buy the dips of a well established company"

Again, for those who are a little risk averse, inexperienced and would prefer not expose their capital to a high likelihood of a total wipeout. I have others, but they cannot be summed up in a sentence that would make sense for a carpenter with 5-20k to spare, and carry a much higher risk of loss.

If you can provide a better advice to people who are not investment professionals, do not want to spend days researching some "hollow shell" companies, I would love to hear it myself as I am sure would the people asking for simple advice in the last two pages.

Fittster

20,120 posts

215 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
isee said:
My strategy is simple insofar that it carries a lower risk than investing into 10 startups hoping for just 1 hit that will outweigh the loss on the other 9.

My simple strategy is essentailly "buy the dips of a well established company"

Again, for those who are a little risk averse, inexperienced and would prefer not expose their capital to a high likelihood of a total wipeout. I have others, but they cannot be summed up in a sentence that would make sense for a carpenter with 5-20k to spare, and carry a much higher risk of loss.

If you can provide a better advice to people who are not investment professionals, do not want to spend days researching some "hollow shell" companies, I would love to hear it myself as I am sure would the people asking for simple advice in the last two pages.
Your simple strategy simply ignores that "buying the dips of a well established company" means you would have bought companies that have gone bust leaving shareholders with nothing. You claim not to have bought the companies I mentioned, therefore you aren't following that strategy.

If you look back on this page you will see I put forward the following link that gives a simple, proven strategy.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Stre...

simonej

3,905 posts

182 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
Republik said:
CAD looks like it is starting to head in the right direct. FIngers crossed.
Sorry to be the bringer of bad news but I hold some of these - that pretty much guarantees they won't do anything! biggrinwink


isee

3,713 posts

185 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
Fittster said:
isee said:
My strategy is simple insofar that it carries a lower risk than investing into 10 startups hoping for just 1 hit that will outweigh the loss on the other 9.

My simple strategy is essentailly "buy the dips of a well established company"

Again, for those who are a little risk averse, inexperienced and would prefer not expose their capital to a high likelihood of a total wipeout. I have others, but they cannot be summed up in a sentence that would make sense for a carpenter with 5-20k to spare, and carry a much higher risk of loss.

If you can provide a better advice to people who are not investment professionals, do not want to spend days researching some "hollow shell" companies, I would love to hear it myself as I am sure would the people asking for simple advice in the last two pages.
Your simple strategy simply ignores that "buying the dips of a well established company" means you would have bought companies that have gone bust leaving shareholders with nothing. You claim not to have bought the companies I mentioned, therefore you aren't following that strategy.

If you look back on this page you will see I put forward the following link that gives a simple, proven strategy.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Stre...
I simply wasn't investing back when those companies went bust. I did say I have a bunch of cmpanies in my portfolio so one going bust is not a total wipeout and is likely to be offset by others performing well.

Please rather than selling me a book and pointing out the most pointless faults with my simple advice can you either provide us all with a strategy that works 100% of the time and has no exceptions, or a strategy that does not carry a risk of losing?
your criticism is not really conducive to the theme of the thread or the latest conversation of it and you seem to be deliberately obtuse. Your suggested faults of my strategy apply to every other strategy out there so well done captain obvious.

DonkeyApple

55,911 posts

171 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
Rockhopper Exploration Plc, a U.K. company searching for oil and gas off the Falkland Islands, tumbled in London trading after its advisers said resources may be lower than expected.

Rockhopper plunged as much as 25 percent, and traded at 379 pence, down 18 percent, at 8:32 a.m., the lowest in almost a month. The company plans to hire a rig to drill more wells and commission additional seismic studies of the area after consultants said that resources may be 30 percent less than estimated, it said today in a statement.

Rockhopper’s board disputes that view, and has delayed plans to release a resource evaluation report from this year until the second half of 2011, it said today. The company will need to deposit “significant funds” to cover the cost of extra seismic and drilling work, and is evaluating options, including an equity issue, it said.

Courtesy of Bloomies.

Misses targets and has a cash burn rate that won't see it through.

Fittster

20,120 posts

215 months

Wednesday 13th October 2010
quotequote all
isee said:
Fittster said:
isee said:
My strategy is simple insofar that it carries a lower risk than investing into 10 startups hoping for just 1 hit that will outweigh the loss on the other 9.

My simple strategy is essentailly "buy the dips of a well established company"

Again, for those who are a little risk averse, inexperienced and would prefer not expose their capital to a high likelihood of a total wipeout. I have others, but they cannot be summed up in a sentence that would make sense for a carpenter with 5-20k to spare, and carry a much higher risk of loss.

If you can provide a better advice to people who are not investment professionals, do not want to spend days researching some "hollow shell" companies, I would love to hear it myself as I am sure would the people asking for simple advice in the last two pages.
Your simple strategy simply ignores that "buying the dips of a well established company" means you would have bought companies that have gone bust leaving shareholders with nothing. You claim not to have bought the companies I mentioned, therefore you aren't following that strategy.

If you look back on this page you will see I put forward the following link that gives a simple, proven strategy.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Stre...
I simply wasn't investing back when those companies went bust. I did say I have a bunch of cmpanies in my portfolio so one going bust is not a total wipeout and is likely to be offset by others performing well.

Please rather than selling me a book and pointing out the most pointless faults with my simple advice can you either provide us all with a strategy that works 100% of the time and has no exceptions, or a strategy that does not carry a risk of losing?
your criticism is not really conducive to the theme of the thread or the latest conversation of it and you seem to be deliberately obtuse. Your suggested faults of my strategy apply to every other strategy out there so well done captain obvious.
XL went bust in 2008.

So how many shares do you hold in your portfolio to ensure one share going to 0 doesn't destroy the average return? You are buying big companies going through a dip, how are you diversifying that? How are you defining a big company and what exactly is a dip? How are you running this strategy to only pick winners and what back testing have you done?

The evidence says that tracking the market will out perform active investing. When people are able to beat the market they have more information than the average punter.

Edited by Fittster on Wednesday 13th October 11:10

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