Formula to reward exceeding forecast AND forecasting well

Formula to reward exceeding forecast AND forecasting well

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Adam B

Original Poster:

27,363 posts

255 months

Wednesday 8th February 2017
quotequote all
Was chatting to a colleague about one of the few things I remember from my finance degree.

There was a clever formula to use for managing performance that rewarded actual over forecast but also factors in the accuracy of the forecast, i.e. If you beat a forecast because you deliberately forecast low it would reduce the positive score

If I can't find it on the web - anyone recognise this?

Adam B

Original Poster:

27,363 posts

255 months

Wednesday 8th February 2017
quotequote all
Thinking about it IIRC it was set such that

Forecast was compared to original budget
Actual was compared to Forecast

Actual achieving/not achieving forecast - biggest impact
Forecast widely out - reduces positive score

It worked such that getting a high actual result would always trump an accurate forecast, hence no incentive to forecast low and achieve very close to forecast

will google MAPE thanks