The official 2014 warm sunshine and BBQ thread...

[Puggit]

Thurs/Fri looking good for central and southern areas - maybe up to 27. The East Coast isn't looking pretty in the meantime though. Strong northerly winds and plenty of rain. Weekend is looking like sunshine and (heavy) showers.

As for the heatwave it's close by, but just not arriving on our shores. Hurricane Arthur and the current super-typhoon in the western Pacific seem to have messed things up. Signs are now pointing for an Atlantic dominated period

[Puggit]

Saturday:

Wednesday 16th:

Mixed in with the good news is that Sunday could be a sky firework day. Plenty of heavy rain and possible thunder.

[Puggit]

That's impressive for up there!

[Puggit]

Have another warm looking chart for next Thurs:

[Puggit]

Second half of next week looking increasingly hot (and humid) for the South/South East in particular. Temps possible in to the 30s, and lots of thunder on the cards too. Classic Spanish Plume. Following weekend looking likely to be cooler.

[Puggit]

Digger said:

I'm wondering whether the coming week is effectively going to be the South East's final attempt at "Summer" or am I being overly pessimistic!?

Charts are tenatively indicating that after a cooler weekend the heat will start to rebuild next week

30oC still appears on the cards for the SE on Friday, and widespread thunder is also likely

[Puggit]

You're right Bill, it's been a lovely summer with plenty of sunshine and not too much heat. Occasional rain for the garden and cool nights for sleeping!

Oh so much better than the horror show of 2012.

[Puggit]

iva cosworth said:

Another website has predicted doom and gloom for this weekend as it's their big show of the

year on Sunday.

Any truth in this ?....Hail,thunder etc.

Big time - a mass of very warm and humid air is going to move up from the continent. Temps up in to the low 30s in the SE corner - when it all breaks down it's could be quite a bang.

Met Office weather warning: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warning...

[Puggit]

Looks like the breakdown over the weekend could be temporary. First use if the word 'heatwave' for next week

[Puggit]

There's a broad agreement that the heat is coming, and that it's likely to break down at some point during the weekend. It's an extremely complex puzzle at the moment, hence the MetOffice warning is very broad over the UK and low on accuracy and likelihood.

Chances are storms will arrive from the Continent and move north - so yes, New Forest could well get some. But as always, not everyone gets to see the storms. Chances are that some storms will be whoppers.

[Puggit]

Rosscow said:

Anyone fancy a guess at the forecast for the end of next week, Devon/Cornwall?

Really difficult to tell, so many variables. We're in to the kind of 48 hours is as accurate as it gets stage that we sometimes get when trying to forecast snow in the winter. However, chances are better than average for high pressure

[Puggit]

Seems that things are firming up. Thurs/Fri will be very warm, with temps likely to peak at 33oC in the SE on Friday. Then frontal weather moves in off the Atlantic on Friday night, leading to overnight storms in to Saturday morning. However, due to the complexity of the weather patterns, there is a widespread risk of thunder from Thurs-Sun.

Sat/Sun/Mon will be less warm, and then from Tuesday onwards the heat builds again - up towards 30oC once more.

Get the paddling pools out for the start of the school holidays!

[Puggit]

Yep - the storms predicted will be as bad as they get. One of the models is already featuring MCS systems over UK ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_convective_... ).

Edited by Puggit on Thursday 17th July 09:01

[Puggit]

Bill said:

You think turning sausages while stood under a brolly won't hack it?

I would have thought if you end up under an MCS with a brolly a) you'll get struck by lightning b) it will be blown away

[Puggit]

I hope you're ready in the SW? This storm is moving north, mainly towards Cornwall.

www.netweather.tv/radar

[Puggit]

MiniMan64 said:

And when is it due to arrive? It's bloody lovely in Plymouth at the mo!

Go to the radar, turn on the animation, and make your own guess

[Puggit]

Some extremely potent and widespread storms beginning to cross the Channel. Devon and Cornwall (and Ireland) mainly in the firing line.

[Puggit]

MiniMan64 said:

Meh.

It's here and I've seen better.

The big stuff was over Cornwall.

A few smaller storms now crossing over Dorset/Hants coast

[Puggit]

Gun said:

Yeah, the storm must've been right overhead for a good 45 minutes, was brilliant! More like that over the next couple of days please.

Last night was the warm up act, tonight is due to be the big one! Will research when I get time but I have a busy work day

[Puggit]

Met Office have released an amber warning for the storms tonight/tomorrow. An amber warning - for thunder. I can't remember that before!

They are now saying high likelihood and high impact: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warning...