Discussion
Report into the Vega VV15 launch failure concludes the probable cause was associated with failure of the forward dome of the 2nd stage motor
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/09/inquiry-ve...
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/09/inquiry-ve...
Ariane 6's debut now delayed from Q4 this year to the second half of 2021.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/07/esa-ariane...
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/07/esa-ariane...
The European Space Agency (ESA) has handed ArianeGroup a €33 million contract to develop a reusable first stage demonstrator rocket called "Themis":
Looks vaguely familiar somehow.
It'll use 3x Prometheus engines, which are already under development. This is a methane/oxygen powered engine, although it could use hydrogen/oxygen as well according to the blurb. Perhaps in an upper stage configuration eventually. The engine is also designed to be reusable with production costs a tenth of the Ariane 5's Vulcain 2 engine.
https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transpo...
They want it to do initial hop tests in Kiruna, Sweden by 2022.
Followed by suborbital flights from French Guiana from 2023, including landing on a ship out at sea by 2025 by the looks of it.
If all goes well, they'll can scale it up and put it into service... in around 2030.
Looks vaguely familiar somehow.
It'll use 3x Prometheus engines, which are already under development. This is a methane/oxygen powered engine, although it could use hydrogen/oxygen as well according to the blurb. Perhaps in an upper stage configuration eventually. The engine is also designed to be reusable with production costs a tenth of the Ariane 5's Vulcain 2 engine.
https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transpo...
They want it to do initial hop tests in Kiruna, Sweden by 2022.
Followed by suborbital flights from French Guiana from 2023, including landing on a ship out at sea by 2025 by the looks of it.
If all goes well, they'll can scale it up and put it into service... in around 2030.
Eric Mc said:
It took SpaceX about ten years to get to the functioning and reliable re-usability stage. The Ariane plan isn't too far off that.
China has also recently released proposals they have for a reusable booster.
Yeah, but SpaceX have done it, documented it, and demonstrated it in public. The roadmap and even the business case are there. Anyone who is not building reusable boosters will be out of business in less than a decade - they’ll just be far too expensive. Of course, there may be some edge (military) cases for non-reusable, but I’m talking about commercial satellite launches.China has also recently released proposals they have for a reusable booster.
IMO SpaceX will achieve Falcon launches for “cost of fuel + the second stage and admin” in a decade. If Starship actually works, they will skip the cost of the second stage. With Starship they could get to cost of fuel + pilot hours.
rxe said:
Yeah, but SpaceX have done it, documented it, and demonstrated it in public. The roadmap and even the business case are there. Anyone who is not building reusable boosters will be out of business in less than a decade - they’ll just be far too expensive. Of course, there may be some edge (military) cases for non-reusable, but I’m talking about commercial satellite launches.
IMO SpaceX will achieve Falcon launches for “cost of fuel + the second stage and admin” in a decade. If Starship actually works, they will skip the cost of the second stage. With Starship they could get to cost of fuel + pilot hours.
There will be room for others because SpaceX on their own can't keep up with the demand for launchers.IMO SpaceX will achieve Falcon launches for “cost of fuel + the second stage and admin” in a decade. If Starship actually works, they will skip the cost of the second stage. With Starship they could get to cost of fuel + pilot hours.
Don't forget, another partially reusable system is almost ready now - Rocket Lab, who do most of their launches out of New Zealand.
I would guess SpaceX are pretty focused on Falcon cycling time now. How long does it take them to stand up a booster ready for a satellite? Could they get it to a week? Probably, but at that rate they’d be hitting the cycle time to refurb them after landing. Falcon is about speed and process now, not innovative engineering. If they can get their cycle time down to a few days, they can take a lot of the market.
rxe said:
I would guess SpaceX are pretty focused on Falcon cycling time now. How long does it take them to stand up a booster ready for a satellite? Could they get it to a week? Probably, but at that rate they’d be hitting the cycle time to refurb them after landing. Falcon is about speed and process now, not innovative engineering. If they can get their cycle time down to a few days, they can take a lot of the market.
The Falcon 9 design is basically done. They’ve already said there’s not going to be a block 6 version. The engineers have all moved over to work on Starship. With multiple Falcon 9 boosters in rotation (and importantly - mostly getting them back) they really don’t need to get the cycle time down than the 6-8 weeks it seems to be now. With this launch coming up, they’ll have averaged exactly one launch every two weeks In 2020.
It’s not like the satellite launch business is that busy at the moment anyway. 14 of this year’s 26 launches have been for their own Starlink system.
By comparison, ULA have had 6 launches and Arianespace have done 8 in 2020.
Preparation and tests for the inaugural flight of #Ariane6, Europe’s next-generation launch vehicle, are under way at Europe's Spaceport. A major step of this testing involves the closure of the Ariane 6 fairing around the payload
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2021/09/...
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2021/09/...
Interesting article on ESA's plans for the future https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Space_Transpo...
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