So the last time oil was down here...

[SpencerO]

...petrol was trading around the 105p mark.. Hmmmm...

Thieves..

[Timmy35]

[scotal]

Do you see the price dropping furnher Tim?

[Timmy35]

scotal said:

Do you see the price dropping furnher Tim?

Yup.

Although a good storm or a camel bomber might spike it back up short term the fundamentals are ripping the a*rse out of it for now.

Edited by Timmy35 on Friday 8th August 16:33

[Mikeyboy]

I want cheap petrol and I want it now!
If I don't get it soon I'm not going to move....well actually I won't be able to.

[Chainguy]

Timmy35 said:

scotal said:

Do you see the price dropping furnher Tim?

Yup.

Make my day, tell me you see $90 a barrel in a couple of years time.

[Skipppy]

I am guessing that most companies buying deliverable oil also bought oil futures, so we are unlikely to see any drop in price for a while yet.

Plus the Russians are going mess everything up by declaring war on a country that hosts major pipelines.

[Timmy35]

Mikeyboy said:

I want cheap petrol and I want it now!
If I don't get it soon I'm not going to move....well actually I won't be able to.

You behave.

Why is it the public are only capable of recognising one side of the supply chain. i.e, noticing when the price of oil falls faster than petrol but whinging like f**k when the price is rising slower than the price of oil?

Yes retailers love high petrol prices UK sales are down 20% this year....absolutely marvellous.

[mel]

In fairness the shell garage opposite my work tends to shadow the peaks and troughs of the crude price, all be it about a week later (I always assumed this is becasue their sell price reflects what they have actually paid for what is in their tanks or maybe even their replacement price) It's currently selling at 109.9 which is coming down nicely IMO

[V8mate]

Chainguy said:

Timmy35 said:

scotal said:

Do you see the price dropping furnher Tim?

Yup.

Make my day, tell me you see $90 a barrel in a couple of weeks' time.

EFA

[Timmy35]

Chainguy said:

Timmy35 said:

scotal said:

Do you see the price dropping furnher Tim?

Yup.

Make my day, tell me you see $90 a barrel in a couple of years time.

Thing even $90 is still fecking expensive. So it's not as though we'll all be able to drive around in Hummers.

There's every chance it'll be there by xmas. I'd rather punt on $100 oil than $200 oil that's for sure.

Suprised it didn't quite get to $150.....it was desperate to!

[markCSC]

Just to give some balance..

The Chatham House report says it will go up in 5-10 years to over $200 per barrel

http://www.oilreviewmiddleeast.com/ormenews_click4...

[Timmy35]

mel said:

In fairness the shell garage opposite my work tends to shadow the peaks and troughs of the crude price, all be it about a week later (I always assumed this is becasue their sell price reflects what they have actually paid for what is in their tanks or maybe even their replacement price) It's currently selling at 109.9 which is coming down nicely IMO

It's a bit of both. Believe it or not retailers make a smal spread over wholesale per litre....around 5-10p. So erm, what do we all think....

Petrol stations like a) low sales volumes, the same spread and high prices
b) high sales volumes, lower prices, same spread...

So they tend to absorb sharp rises be sacrificing as much margin as possible then when prices drop back they lower them more gently than the volatile market price and in so doing recover some margin.

Oh and yes oil producers/ refiners make lots of money ( at the moment )but they will only run a retail network if they make some profit from it....and believe me...compared to upstream, downstream profits are p*ss poor.

Oh and that Chatham House report.....no kidding.....so that's 10 years of inflation plus a steady demand growth.....I would be at all suprised if it is at $200 in 10 years....but it might well hit $60 in the next 18mths.

Long term everything goes up in price....because Governments can't resist devaluing there currencies by printing more and more money.

Edited by Timmy35 on Friday 8th August 16:46

[scotal]

mel said:

In fairness the shell garage opposite my work tends to shadow the peaks and troughs of the crude price, all be it about a week later (I always assumed this is becasue their sell price reflects what they have actually paid for what is in their tanks or maybe even their replacement price) It's currently selling at 109.9 which is coming down nicely IMO

Is that the place opposite the football ground? They always seem to be cheaper than anyone else locally.

[SpencerO]

Next stop 110usd.. Front month WTI 200 day moving average, next trend line support, and is the next biggest strike in sep puts which go off the board next friday. So pull up a chair..

Edited by SpencerO on Friday 8th August 16:46

[Mikeyboy]

Timmy35 said:

Chainguy said:

Timmy35 said:

scotal said:

Do you see the price dropping furnher Tim?

Yup.

Make my day, tell me you see $90 a barrel in a couple of years time.

Thing even $90 is still fecking expensive. So it's not as though we'll all be able to drive around in Hummers.

There's every chance it'll be there by xmas. I'd rather punt on $100 oil than $200 oil that's for sure.

Suprised it didn't quite get to $150.....it was desperate to!

Egg on the face for that (goldman?) economist who predicted 200pb by year end. Hmm talking the company book by any chance?

[Timmy35]

Mikeyboy said:

Egg on the face for that (goldman?) economist who predicted 200pb by year end. Hmm talking the company book by any chance?

shocking suggestion!

Edited by Timmy35 on Friday 8th August 16:49

[Chainguy]

Timmy35 said:

Chainguy said:

Timmy35 said:

scotal said:

Do you see the price dropping furnher Tim?

Yup.

Make my day, tell me you see $90 a barrel in a couple of years time.

Thing even $90 is still fecking expensive. So it's not as though we'll all be able to drive around in Hummers.

There's every chance it'll be there by xmas. I'd rather punt on $100 oil than $200 oil that's for sure.

Suprised it didn't quite get to $150.....it was desperate to!

I'm thinking more along the lines of aviation fuel prices. If the industry (which pays my salary) is to continue to grow at even a modest rate, fuel really needs to mirror a sub $100 price.

[Fetchez la vache]

Timmy35 said:

Oh and yes oil producers/ refiners make lots of money ( at the moment )but they will only run a retail network if they make some profit from it....and believe me...compared to upstream, downstream profits are p*ss poor.

One of the local refinaries had a week of unplanned downtime 2 weeks back (they usually only have one a year), losing them £56 million. My heart bleeds, it really does.

[Mikeyboy]

Timmy35 said:

Mikeyboy said:

Suprised it didn't quite get to $150.....it was desperate to!

Egg on the face for that (goldman?) economist who predicted 200pb by year end. Hmm talking the company book by any chance?

shocking suggestion!

Oh thats right..Analysts are impartial. As the Fresh Prince once said.. tech, tech, tech, boom.