EVs... no one wants them!

[LivLL]

Thank you GT9, exactly. It’s a point made many, many times on this thread seemingly ignored by those who can’t see past the end of their own nose and see no reason why everyone shouldn’t be forced into EVs by legislation.

Average is meaningless when it comes to car choice, the whole point is that you can go anywhere whenever you want with ease.

Hence short range EVs struggle to sell and tank on the 2nd hand market now longer range versions are available.

Demand currently slowing I put more down to economics than than anything else.

Edited by LivLL on Wednesday 8th May 10:35

[GT9]

braddo said:

Interesting. That graph appears to show (approx.):

50-100 miles is less than 4%
100-200 miles is 1.75%
200+ miles is 0.5%

Obviously the proportions will be different in holiday periods but even then, 200+ mile journeys will only be a few percent.

The graph is trying to cram a lot of information into the bars.
The total (white/wide) column needs to be read from the LH axis, the individual (shaded) car size columns from the RH axis.
The individual columns add up to the total column for each mileage bracket.
Under 100 miles is 95% of the total.
Large and medium sized cars are doing more of the longer journeys, unsurprisingly.

[otolith]

sturge7878 said:

The consumer simply does not want EVs.

If that's true (and I'm not entirely convinced), then the policy of restricting the number of ICEs which can be sold is unavoidable.

[SWoll]

GT9 said:

Further to my previous post, the trend for average distance travelled annually supports the idea that range anxiety is predominantly a manufactured concern.
COVID obviously skews the data, regardless, when you are dealing with a technology solution to a transportation challenge where the average person is not exceeding 6000 miles per annum, or less than 20 miles per day, arming every single car with the ability to travel 700 miles in one go seems ridiculous.



Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64e...

The manufacturers absolutely love all of this range anxiety stuff as gives them cart blanche to fit ever bigger batteries and justify pushing up the prices of their cars.

Need the long range version so you can do 300 rather than 200 miles once in a blue moon? That'll be another £10k+ please..

[Downward]

GT9 said:

Further to my previous post, the trend for average distance travelled annually supports the idea that range anxiety is predominantly a manufactured concern.
COVID obviously skews the data, regardless, when you are dealing with a technology solution to a transportation challenge where the average person is not exceeding 6000 miles per annum, or less than 20 miles per day, arming every single car with the ability to travel 700 miles in one go seems ridiculous.



Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64e...

Wife just sent her car back after a 4 year lease with 21k miles on it.
In the past year it did 3k miles. We also did 2500 miles in 14 days too the one year.

Looking at the trip computer before it went back the average MPG was 22. That’s the joys of urban car ownership.

[Fastdruid]

GT9 said:

Further to my previous post, the trend for average distance travelled annually supports the idea that range anxiety is predominantly a manufactured concern.
COVID obviously skews the data, regardless, when you are dealing with a technology solution to a transportation challenge where the average person is not exceeding 6000 miles per annum, or less than 20 miles per day, arming every single car with the ability to travel 700 miles in one go seems ridiculous.



Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64e...

Utter nonsense statistic.

6000 miles per year could be 0 miles for 359 days of the year and 1000 miles for 6 of them or it could be only using the car once a week (~115Miles/day) or once a week only in when the weather is a bit nice (~240Miles/day) and anything in between.

[LivLL]

To be fair GT9 their 200 mile version will probably manage 150 on a good day and the 300 miles a reliable 200 miles unless you’re going to arrive in turtle mode everywhere you go.

Manufacturers sell what sell and makes profit, consumers will decide what that is.

[Downward]

SWoll said:

GT9 said:

Further to my previous post, the trend for average distance travelled annually supports the idea that range anxiety is predominantly a manufactured concern.
COVID obviously skews the data, regardless, when you are dealing with a technology solution to a transportation challenge where the average person is not exceeding 6000 miles per annum, or less than 20 miles per day, arming every single car with the ability to travel 700 miles in one go seems ridiculous.



Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64e...

The manufacturers absolutely love all of this range anxiety stuff as gives them cart blanche to fit ever bigger batteries and justify pushing up the prices of their cars.

Need the long range version so you can do 300 rather than 200 miles once in a blue moon? That'll be another £10k+ please..

Wonder what the average mileage is now post covid or as many of us find ourselves WFH more and because of the cost of living driving less ?

[GT9]

Nobody likes being reduced to a number on a graph, I get it!
Ignoring this stuff and calling it nonsense is fine for winning the internet, not so fine when shaping national policy.
I'm not denying hearts have to won and well as minds.
Doing that whilst totally ignoring numbers on a page isn't the right way to go about it either.

[braddo]

Fastdruid said:

I'm going to write some utter nonsense:

6000 miles per year could be 0 miles for 359 days of the year and 1000 miles for 6 of them or it could be only using the car once a week (~115Miles/day) or once a week only in when the weather is a bit nice (~240Miles/day) and anything in between.

EFA

[Fastdruid]

braddo said:

Fastdruid said:

I'm going to write some utter nonsense:

6000 miles per year could be 0 miles for 359 days of the year and 1000 miles for 6 of them or it could be only using the car once a week (~115Miles/day) or once a week only in when the weather is a bit nice (~240Miles/day) and anything in between.

EFA

Yes because there is absolutely no one in the entire country who commutes daily by public transport (or WFH) and then uses their car only at the weekend for longer journeys.

[braddo]

GT9 said:

The graph is trying to cram a lot of information into the bars.
The total (white/wide) column needs to be read from the LH axis, the individual (shaded) car size columns from the RH axis.
The individual columns add up to the total column for each mileage bracket.
Under 100 miles is 95% of the total.
Large and medium sized cars are doing more of the longer journeys, unsurprisingly.

Ah, got it, thanks.

[SWoll]

Fastdruid said:

Utter nonsense statistic.

6000 miles per year could be 0 miles for 359 days of the year and 1000 miles for 6 of them or it could be only using the car once a week (~115Miles/day) or once a week only in when the weather is a bit nice (~240Miles/day) and anything in between.

I'd assume it's accepted that the vast majority of car owners have very consistent usage patterns with the occasional blip for a weeks holiday etc? Primary usage like commutes, school runs, going to the shops, visiting family etc.

Fastdruid said:

Yes because there is absolutely no one in the entire country who commutes daily by public transport (or WFH) and then uses their car only at the weekend for longer journeys.

Has anyone suggested that no-one does that? There are no absolute answers, but applying some common sense would be helpful.

[DonkeyApple]

FiF said:

Unreal said:

I was quite surprised by an earlier post saying that around 70% of drivers had off road parking. Seemed to be backed up in this article (which I haven't read in full yet).

https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/parking...

These are a summary of the figures, different analysis to the above, it used OS digital mapping.

The criteria was residences which either had space for off road parking now, or the potential to create a space for a vehicle the size of a Ford Fiesta adjacent to the property.



Note that doesn't include residences where there may be off road parking but that is positioned such that it may not be possible to arrange a home charging facility, eg HMOs, blocks of apartments, affordable housing where spaces are provided in shared areas somewhere within a development.

The other thing that needs to be pointed out is that for example London is an outlier not just in the figures, but firstly because the public transport system provision there and secondly 40+% of the households don't have a car.

It's certainly an interesting stat as I think you can forgive anyone for for looking at the mid zone street parking of most towns and cities and thinking there is a vast absence of private parking.

Even at 50% of households you can see that it is going to take at least two decades to satiate that part of the market.

The real near term issue for outer zone street parking isn't EVs or the national EV policy at all but their local council policies but they can elect replacements that represent them if needs be.

What is also not going to happen is the converting of these residential streets to EV charging bays because you'd slash the space available for car parking but also each charger would only have one customer a day and that customer may not even be buying anything so the only way it can work commercially is to charge based on the use of the parking space. Not a single resident is going to accept having to pay to park on their residential street obviously.

Such households must patiently wait for the destination charging infrastructure to be created for them so they charge their cars when they are parked elsewhere not at home. Lots of work to be done in that regard but it's a cost and problem for employers, retailers and car manufacturers not something that should be troubling the taxpayer's pocket.

[otolith]

There seems to be an idea that transport policy needs to be written around edge cases. The idea that you can't decarbonise mass car ownership because some people will find it less convenient for 1% of the journeys made just isn't a consideration. I don't think it would be a consideration even if it meant that 1% of journeys became impossible by car.

[Fastdruid]

SWoll said:

Fastdruid said:

Utter nonsense statistic.

6000 miles per year could be 0 miles for 359 days of the year and 1000 miles for 6 of them or it could be only using the car once a week (~115Miles/day) or once a week only in when the weather is a bit nice (~240Miles/day) and anything in between.

I'd assume it's accepted that the vast majority of car owners have very consistent usage patterns with the occasional blip for a weeks holiday etc? Primary usage like commutes, school runs, going to the shops, visiting family etc.

Except that is literally what GT9 claimed.

GT9 said:

where the average person is not exceeding 6000 miles per annum, or less than 20 miles per day

It's overly simplistic and utterly unhelpful.

[DonkeyApple]

Olivera said:

The average person is also a cretin that's only ever lived within a few miles of where they were born

What's more pertinent is driving habits of upper income deciles, i.e. representative of PHers and those that enjoy motoring. In the real world people make choices that include very occasional but important activities, such as driving holidays and tours. Of course EVs can do this, but ICE is currently just better.

Not getting why it's pertinent to upper income deciles? You're not trapped on a budget so just use whatever you want to get where you want, when you want to.

[GT9]

Fastdruid said:

Yes because there is absolutely no one in the entire country who commutes daily by public transport (or WFH) and then uses their car only at the weekend for longer journeys.

You are absolutely correct that the first graph I posted could indicate that every single car in the UK will do 200+ miles in a day, once every 3 months or so.
Or it could indicate that only 1% of cars in the UK ever exceed 200 miles in a day.
I'm going with somewhere between those two extremes.
Needlessly carrying around 500 kWh+ of non-renewable energy in each car and then wasting most of that to the atmosphere as heat is the crux of what we are dealing with.
Sooner or later something has to give, EVs are the only long-term technically viable and affordable pathway that preserves the ability for everyone to keep doing the same mileage but get rid of the downsides of doing so.
The icing on the cake is that the speed you choose to do it at doesn't affect that viability.
This is a good thing, no?

[BricktopST205]

GT9 said:

These guys are producing them now: https://trans.info/en/renaults-44-tonne-electric-t...
Volvo as well I think.

Renault trucks are Volvo owned and have been for like 20 years. They are essentially the same company. Think of a Renault Truck your Skoda to your Audi.

300KM is also absolutely nothing range for a lorry and complete niche for the most part and is not sustainable until the infrastructure is there to support it.

In the last year I can count on 1 hand the amount of times I did less than 300KM in a day and they were all bank holidays!!

Where am I going to get my charge from when I am delivering and collecting from farmer john down a dirt track that has been there for 400 years!?

You are lucky to get a clean working toilet at an RDC yet you expect them to full install an expensive charging network on site out of their own back pocket? Not going to happen.

It is hillarious just how out of touch so many people are to the real world.

Edited by BricktopST205 on Wednesday 8th May 11:33

[BricktopST205]

Tracker69 said:

44 tonne EV trucks? 43 tonnes for the truck with batteries and 1 tonne left for the payload?

I note that the Renault 18 tonne D Wide ZE has an operating range of up to 112 miles and is available to order now.

112 miles, wow! Chocolate teapot anyone?

Yeah it is totally unviable in so many ways i could go on for days. Like company car drivers a lot of these useless trucks are getting subbed by tax payers money.

Edited by BricktopST205 on Wednesday 8th May 14:18