Is the bubble about to burst?

[Zyp]

Are these new buyers the ones that don't watch the news (apart from the bit where various governments have printed lots of money), never read the newspapers, whos houses have increased in value to the extent it's worth borrowing against, and for whom life is essentially hunky dory and nothing - anywhere in the world - is going to change in the foreseeable?




(Tongue in cheek reply of course, but moose's question is one I'd like to see a definitive answer for)

[mollytherocker]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I hope your alternative argument is wrong, but accept it might at least partly, be a contribution towards the truth.

Perhaps my view is a little more... er romantic?

Edited by mollytherocker on Monday 10th August 23:45

[Zyp]

During the last classic car price explosion, was money as cheap then?

Edit - the crash of the erly 90's, interest rates >10%, so not cheap.

This article may shed some light - http://www.carmagazine.co.uk/features/car-culture/...

People cashing in ISA's to buy a car?
( I cashed one in to buy some land, not as much fun as a car granted...)

Edited by Zyp on Monday 10th August 23:53

[pete a]

Lots of cars coming to market at inflated prices in the last few couple of months, this for example, low miles and good colour scheme but 29k?

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...

These were 20k tops 3-4 months ago?

[arcticGT]

pete a said:

Lots of cars coming to market at inflated prices in the last few couple of months, this for example, low miles and good colour scheme but 29k?

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...

These were 20k tops 3-4 months ago?

Not for a 2005 car with 33K miles on it, no chance.

[FrankCayman]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That's my gut feeling too....

[Digga]

FrankCayman said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That's my gut feeling too....

That, and a combination of the baby boomers hitting retirement and the huge numbers of wealthy foreign ex-pats.

In regard to wealthy retirees, my mate was hooning a Boxter around Silverstone last week and was talking to an F40 owner. The guy did only a few (understandably) careful laps - just to keep the car ticking over and to get some enjoyment from it - before heading home to tuck it into a garage alongside at least two other supercars...

[NJH]

cmoose I was going to do that last year and pick up a nice Morgan +8 late fuel injection rover motor for about 20 grand. Looks that boat sailed away but I bought a house, which has already gone up in value so the ole bricks and mortar is probably still the better thing to do. Those of you living in the south east need to look at the prices a few miles away, my house is about 1/3rd the price of similar in the south east and I can remember the last time such a big gap existed it dragged up the prices away from the capitol. If one has an RS or two and £1M house in the south east maybe sell up, retire early to the country. Chasing classic car investments may look attractive but it also looks a surefire way to a lot of stress and worry to me.

[g7jhp]

Zyp said:

During the last classic car price explosion, was money as cheap then?

Edit - the crash of the erly 90's, interest rates >10%, so not cheap.

This article may shed some light - http://www.carmagazine.co.uk/features/car-culture/...

People cashing in ISA's to buy a car?
( I cashed one in to buy some land, not as much fun as a car granted...)

i wouldn't take this article too seriously it has Sc/3.2's at £20k (having risen from £10k). It was March so maybe we're just seeing the greed phase with SC's hitting £30-45k!

[YoungMD]

It's really intersting that some people still think the price increases in the last year or so are a drastic increase in demand that will stay as people have now discovered these great air cooled cars. Don't get me wrong i love all 911's but they are, especially the SC, 3.2, 964's a bit of an acquired taste.

People dont recognise the pretty sudden price rises as hot air speculation that will sink back to some degree as they are not used to it in the classic car market, it has happened but generally once the depreciation stops and a car starts being thought of as classic the value increases very steadily and very slowly. I think 996, early boxsters and BMW E46 M3's will be examples of this over the next couple of years.

Early last year (april) i was looking at conv tip 993's and they were around early £20k, now i would guess early £30's, £10k in 12 months, or a 50% increase in 12 months? really thats genuine?

A classic element to capital markets is the speculative investor, choosing investments when they see stock, assets etc rise, you see this all the time with stocks, something triggers an increase, the stock rises a bit to a new sensible level, then becuase it rises a load of other investors are attracted, thus you get an overshoot and a correction. Speculation the human element or joker in the pack that means stocks, assets etc can be priced above their reasonable economic value..... but generally not for long.

[mollytherocker]

pete a said:

Lots of cars coming to market at inflated prices in the last few couple of months, this for example, low miles and good colour scheme but 29k?

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...

These were 20k tops 3-4 months ago?

Private sale too. These are quite popular but that's a very high price.

[V8KSN]

mollytherocker said:

V8KSN said:

I was VERY lucky that I bought my 997 GT3 when I did......but I bought it because I had ALWAYS wanted one not because of the potential rise in values....and it was a struggle to get spending £50k odd past the wife at the time too!

I have watched the prices rise and it got to a point where I was going to sell it and 'cash in' and spend the money on a house extension but I had a good long hard think and thought there was nothing out there that really appealed to me from a driving perspective (even at £75-£80k) so I found the money for the kitchen and extension elsewhere and kept the car

I honestly believe I will keep this car forever as the Gen 2 997 RS (which is what I REALLY want) is too far out of reach and I can't really see myself being able to justify £150k on a toy.......not that I can afford that either as I am not a rich man so I will be keeping this little treasure of a car for as long as I can still drive it!

As a side note I think people get too hung up on values and let the investment part override their enjoyment of the car. The way I see it is this, when I bought the car I expected it to drop to £40k and then probably settle at around £45k (this was a 'finger in the air' guess based on where I saw the car positioned on the heirachy of the 997 range) I will continue to drive the car, continue to spank it on european trips and continue to cherish,maintain and enjoy it for as long as possible. If the time comes to sell it then whatever I get that is over £45k is a bonus as far as i'm concerned!

How dare you come here with your reasonable and mature post!

Sorry, normal service will resume very soon

[g7jhp]

mollytherocker said:

pete a said:

Lots of cars coming to market at inflated prices in the last few couple of months, this for example, low miles and good colour scheme but 29k?

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...

These were 20k tops 3-4 months ago?

Private sale too. These are quite popular but that's a very high price.

Seal grey with black leather (IMO) the best colour combination on a 996, manual, 33k miles, OPC history late 2005 model. The only thing it could have would be hard backed sports seats (and a turbo) otherwise it's as good as a 996 C4S gets.

Prices of standard 996 do seem to have moved up, so not surprising. Again with the 996 turbo out of reach people are looking at the alternatives!

[YoungMD]

mollytherocker said:

pete a said:

Lots of cars coming to market at inflated prices in the last few couple of months, this for example, low miles and good colour scheme but 29k?

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/p...

These were 20k tops 3-4 months ago?

Private sale too. These are quite popular but that's a very high price.

I guess with Turbo's going up these were going to follow, interestingly i wonder if the rise in Turbo 996's is because they are generally now getting an enthusiast following and people are seeing them differently, not sure about these too though............

[g7jhp]

YoungMD said:

I guess with Turbo's going up these were going to follow, interestingly i wonder if the rise in Turbo 996's is because they are generally now getting an enthusiast following and people are seeing them differently, not sure about these too though............

I actually think the 996 C4S is possibly the best looking car in the 996 range. Although the 996 C4S Cab may be the best. I don't know why I like the cab, but I do!

[996GT2]

V8KSN said:

mollytherocker said:

V8KSN said:

I was VERY lucky that I bought my 997 GT3 when I did......but I bought it because I had ALWAYS wanted one not because of the potential rise in values....and it was a struggle to get spending £50k odd past the wife at the time too!

I have watched the prices rise and it got to a point where I was going to sell it and 'cash in' and spend the money on a house extension but I had a good long hard think and thought there was nothing out there that really appealed to me from a driving perspective (even at £75-£80k) so I found the money for the kitchen and extension elsewhere and kept the car

I honestly believe I will keep this car forever as the Gen 2 997 RS (which is what I REALLY want) is too far out of reach and I can't really see myself being able to justify £150k on a toy.......not that I can afford that either as I am not a rich man so I will be keeping this little treasure of a car for as long as I can still drive it!

As a side note I think people get too hung up on values and let the investment part override their enjoyment of the car. The way I see it is this, when I bought the car I expected it to drop to £40k and then probably settle at around £45k (this was a 'finger in the air' guess based on where I saw the car positioned on the heirachy of the 997 range) I will continue to drive the car, continue to spank it on european trips and continue to cherish,maintain and enjoy it for as long as possible. If the time comes to sell it then whatever I get that is over £45k is a bonus as far as i'm concerned!

How dare you come here with your reasonable and mature post!

Sorry, normal service will resume very soon

Absolutely spot on. Before the Porsche Bubble set sail I always looked at my 997 GT2 as being worth 50k if I ever needed it, anything more would be a bonus, I expected to lose on it when I bought it in 2012.

I've no doubt there's a correction coming soon as cars are now sitting around with some opportunistic looking price tags. Personally I think if prices come back 10 - 20% on GTs then cars will probably start moving again and prices will find a new level. Given what else you can buy at that kind of price I still think they're 'worth' that kind of money but at present prices I'd be nervous if I wanted to buy one.

[highway]

So what is the "correct" selling price for a manual 993 coupe in the right colours with sub 70k and impeccable history?

What about a C4S with 50k?

I know what these cars are advertised at or would be advertised at. What SHOULD the asking price be?

[YoungMD]

highway said:

So what is the "correct" selling price for a manual 993 coupe in the right colours with sub 70k and impeccable history?

What about a C4S with 50k?

I know what these cars are advertised at or would be advertised at. What SHOULD the asking price be?

Well as the market now consists of 'normal buyers' + 'speculators' if i were selling one i would ask for £££££; but in terms of what the price should be if the market were only 'normal buyers' thats difficult......... but i would say go back about a year after the inital rise, so a 964 should be in the £20's early for some, cab's/tips then only C2 mannual's north of £30k. Mannual 993 C2 i think is always going to be desirable, i don't really know i only looked at 993 cab's but £40k+ ? 996 C4S i have looked at over the past year and they started selling at £15-20k, nothing over £20k and only the very best for £18/19k

[Never you mind]

YoungMD said:

I guess with Turbo's going up these were going to follow, interestingly i wonder if the rise in Turbo 996's is because they are generally now getting an enthusiast following and people are seeing them differently, not sure about these too though............

Think the 996 turbo was under priced about a year ago.

[fredt]

Where is the bubble? In credit, globally, and it's not about to burst just yet. And when it does burst the value of your car is probably the last thing you'll worry about.
Our dear leaders around the world really messed up in the last credit crisis, trying desperately to save themselves and their bankster/big business buddies by printing wads and wads of cash. Best we can hope for is to inflate slowly out of this mess, the alternative aint pretty.

Classic cars are just playing catch up with prime real estate imo. Adding 50-60 grand to a mortgage to buy a classic/GT car is fekk all to a lot of people and anyone with any cash will want to get rid of it. So for anyone in either of those situations just mildly interested in cars it's an interesting proposition. Anyway, worst case scenario on a classic, will not be much worse then buying a new car of similar purchase price so it's almost a free punt.

Interest rates will not move in the foreseeable future as that will obviously bring down the castle in the sky. Yes there might well be some very minor hikes to give a hint of normality, but rates won't move in a meaningful way for years.