Best 911 for £15k weekend car for my mate?
Discussion
christer said:
Talking about what you said in immense detail is not going to change that
I was "talking about what I said in immense detail" because I was being misquoted.christer said:
I think most people would agree though that buying an older classic car for someone else with no clue what you are doing (no offence OP) within a week is probably not a recipe for a resounding success?
As a stand-alone statement, that's probably about right, however what percentage risk of dissatisfaction would you personally place on buying the car suggested above at the 'full warranty' price of £13.5k?
Thanks for the advice so far, and hey what would PH be without a little difference of opinion?
My mate isn't a petrolhead, he wouldn't really see the enjoyment of trailing round the country looking for the right car, whereas I really love the search. His wife is basically taking the hassle out of finding the car for him I suppose.
Found plenty of lovely looking motors around that money, I agree it IS a risk however you can spend 6 months looking for the right car and still end up being on first name terms with the AA guys!
I think i'll get a short list together from the 15 or so i've got at the moment and then go and see 4 or 5 in the next week and see what I think. Usually quite a good judge of both car and seller!
What about this little puppy?
http://www.pistonheads.com/sales/2205563.htm
My mate isn't a petrolhead, he wouldn't really see the enjoyment of trailing round the country looking for the right car, whereas I really love the search. His wife is basically taking the hassle out of finding the car for him I suppose.
Found plenty of lovely looking motors around that money, I agree it IS a risk however you can spend 6 months looking for the right car and still end up being on first name terms with the AA guys!
I think i'll get a short list together from the 15 or so i've got at the moment and then go and see 4 or 5 in the next week and see what I think. Usually quite a good judge of both car and seller!
What about this little puppy?
http://www.pistonheads.com/sales/2205563.htm
BigBazza said:
Nice but it needs a set of black or maybe white Fuchs alloys.monthefish said:
As a stand-alone statement, that's probably about right, however what percentage risk of dissatisfaction would you personally place on buying the car suggested above at the 'full warranty' price of £13.5k?
Most people have no idea how susceptible we are to chance and randomness - and therefore getting it wrong. You would seem to be no exception.I am not interested in making a high-risk estimate on the "chance of dissatisfaction" for someone else I do not know based on a car I don't know. I would rather fire a Magnum 357 in the general direction of a family member hoping not to hit them.
To illustrate this, let us assume that you want me to estimate the "chance of dissatisfaction" in this case. If I assume that you want there to be no risk of me being wrong, I would have to say that there is between 0 and 100% chance of dissatisfaction. How much risk are you willing to take?
In this case, as the OP has no idea about these cars and no idea even which car would be suitable, the statement I made was that it is more likely that this will not be a success in the given timeframe. Accepting the fact that chance plays a big part in my life and assuming you and more importantly the OP wanted an answer with a reasonable level of chance of being true - then I will stick with that.
If the aim here is for you to persuade me (or others)to agree with you, or you are happy to advocate that car to the OP despite a possible lack of knowledge (and responsibility) on your part - then that's up to you sweetcakes. As I said, there is always a chance that the OP will find a car that his buddy actually likes, in a colour he likes, that drives the way he likes and is in perfect conditiona dn will stay that way for some time......all I am saying is that it is more likely *not* to fulfill those criteria. Most people have enough finding a car for themselves that hits those "satisfaction points".
/facepalm and /signoff
BigBazza said:
Thanks for the advice so far, and hey what would PH be without a little difference of opinion?
My mate isn't a petrolhead, he wouldn't really see the enjoyment of trailing round the country looking for the right car, whereas I really love the search. His wife is basically taking the hassle out of finding the car for him I suppose.
Found plenty of lovely looking motors around that money, I agree it IS a risk however you can spend 6 months looking for the right car and still end up being on first name terms with the AA guys!
I think i'll get a short list together from the 15 or so i've got at the moment and then go and see 4 or 5 in the next week and see what I think. Usually quite a good judge of both car and seller!
What about this little puppy?
http://www.pistonheads.com/sales/2205563.htm
Although I've already said that this could turn out to be a disaster (probably a strong word in hindsight)...I admire your determination to at least follow this through to see what you can turn up for your friend and his Mrs. In which case....My mate isn't a petrolhead, he wouldn't really see the enjoyment of trailing round the country looking for the right car, whereas I really love the search. His wife is basically taking the hassle out of finding the car for him I suppose.
Found plenty of lovely looking motors around that money, I agree it IS a risk however you can spend 6 months looking for the right car and still end up being on first name terms with the AA guys!
I think i'll get a short list together from the 15 or so i've got at the moment and then go and see 4 or 5 in the next week and see what I think. Usually quite a good judge of both car and seller!
What about this little puppy?
http://www.pistonheads.com/sales/2205563.htm
...you have a lot of choice in that price range right from an SC (as per that ad) to a 993 (which would probably be a tired tiptronic at that price). Since you mention that your friend is not a petrolhead it might be best to look at 964 onwards because it would give him; power steering, ABS, coilover suspension and even 4WD i.e. all the things that drivers of modern cars have got used and accustomed to. All these developments are missing from anything pre-964. I'm not saying these items make it any more enjoyable to drive than an earlier car (I think early cars are great) but they might make the car a safer prospect for a 911 virgin that suddenly finds one parked on his drive on his birthday!
BigBazza said:
Looks OK apart from the wheels being wrong which personally I'd want to change. However, it's being sold "on behalf of the owner" for some reason and there's no comments about its mechanical condition. For example an engine and 'box rebuild would set you back £5k or more, making it a very expensive car - if EVERYTHING is all in good order then the price is on the high side but justifiable, but it needs inspecting thoroughly by a specialist, preferably one that knows that era of cars so they can tell you if anything (besides the wheels) is incorrect for the model/year (that doesn't mean anything they find will mean avoiding the car it's just useful to know what you're getting).Please post links to any that you find so that we can offer opinions and
christer said:
monthefish said:
As a stand-alone statement, that's probably about right, however what percentage risk of dissatisfaction would you personally place on buying the car suggested above at the 'full warranty' price of £13.5k?
Most people have no idea how susceptible we are to chance and randomness - and therefore getting it wrong. You would seem to be no exception.I'm fully aware that we are highly susceptible to chance and randomness. Even the surest of 'safe buying car options' (new car, 'quality' brand, manufacturer warranty) can end in dissatisfaction. I have already made this point and you have chosen to ignore it.
christer said:
I am not interested in making a high-risk estimate on the "chance of dissatisfaction" for someone else I do not know based on a car I don't know. I would rather fire a Magnum 357 in the general direction of a family member hoping not to hit them.
I really don't know how to respond to this point. It's blatantly nonsense. (you'd rather fire a gun at your family that make a prediction on the internet? Right.)christer said:
To illustrate this, let us assume that you want me to estimate the "chance of dissatisfaction" in this case.
Yes please (hence me asking previously). christer said:
If I assume that you want there to be no risk of me being wrong,
I just want you to quantify your statement that it can't be done. On that basis, you'd be suggesting 100%, yes? christer said:
I would have to say that there is between 0 and 100% chance of dissatisfaction.
Quite the statistician then?christer said:
How much risk are you willing to take?
The route I'd suggested (reputable private indy, as opposed to specific car/dealer) and throwing in a good inspection for good measure, I'd say less than 10% against my definition of 'success' below.christer said:
it is more likely that this will not be a success in the given timeframe.
I think we have a different definition of 'success' in this instance.
It is a surprise birthday present for occasional use. The chap just likes classic 911's. Even if the car didn't meet his exact dream spec, it will presumably still satisy the childhood dream to own a 911. If he decides he doesn't want to keep it after say 6 months, it is unlikely it will lose very much money, and certainly not an amount that is likely to trouble the OP's friend (what I mean is, I doubt they are on the breadline if they have £15k to spend on a birthday gift. Yes, I've made an assumption here, but statistcally, it's probably a reasonable one to make. As a statistician, I'm hoping you can appreciate this)
christer said:
If the aim here is for you to persuade me (or others)to agree with you, or you are happy to advocate that car to the OP despite a possible lack of knowledge (and responsibility) on your part - then that's up to you sweetcakes.
The aim is to have an adult discussion on an interesting subject/dilemma.....christer said:
sweetcakes.
christer said:
/facepalm and /signoff
I may be wasting my time however. monthefish said:
It is a surprise birthday present for occasional use. The chap just likes classic 911's. Even if the car didn't meet his exact dream spec, it will presumably still satisy the childhood dream to own a 911. If he decides he doesn't want to keep it after say 6 months, it is unlikely it will lose very much money, and certainly not an amount that is likely to trouble the OP's friend (what I mean is, I doubt they are on the breadline if they have £15k to spend on a birthday gift. Yes, I've made an assumption here, but statistcally, it's probably a reasonable one to make. As a statistician, I'm hoping you can appreciate this)
Absolutely bang on on all points. Thank you.monthefish said:
a lot of stuff displaying a high degree of "quotation" skills and then at some point ended up stating that you are a statistician
I suppose that the Gaussian bell curve is a "truth" you believe in?Apparently it is not "un-ironic" that statisticians and economists show the biggest signs of falling for "narrative fallacy". I am certainly not one, rather the opposite if such a thing exists.
In any case, I never said it "can't be done" - that was actually someone else. A statistician without attention to detail and easily confused? Whatever next?
To summarise for you - without the endless quotations (are you paid per line?):
I think it is more likely the case that the OP does not find a car *in that timeframe* that is suitable and proves to be a source of zero "non-satsifaction". I.e. there is a chance he will (and I hope he does) but in my opinion there is a greater chance that he doesn't. To my mind it is not worth being more specific than this due to the myriad of factors that are unknown - and even if they were could change or be affected by randomness.
Just one last point: I cannot see how you can say that you (paraphrasing because I got bored reading back on your tedious post) are aware of randomness and the affects of this when you ask me to specify a *percentage* of "non-satisfaction" in a case like this......haha...i mean wtf?
All IMHO, DYOR etc etc
Edited by christer on Friday 19th November 16:33
BigBazza said:
monthefish said:
It is a surprise birthday present for occasional use. The chap just likes classic 911's. Even if the car didn't meet his exact dream spec, it will presumably still satisy the childhood dream to own a 911. If he decides he doesn't want to keep it after say 6 months, it is unlikely it will lose very much money, and certainly not an amount that is likely to trouble the OP's friend (what I mean is, I doubt they are on the breadline if they have £15k to spend on a birthday gift. Yes, I've made an assumption here, but statistcally, it's probably a reasonable one to make. As a statistician, I'm hoping you can appreciate this)
Absolutely bang on on all points. Thank you.Good luck with the gift - it is a lovely idea and your mate is a lucky fellow.
For what it's worth, I don't knock those who have pointed out that there is risk (even I did), but this is true of any car purchase and any surprise gift.
The difference is I would quantify the risk somewere at 10% (via the process outlined previously)
Christer "you might get lucky" appears to quantify that risk at 95%.
Davek & Sneaky Schnell "it can't be done" quantify it at 100%
...and I'd say forget the amateur-hour cod-statistician talk & point out that the there is insufficient data & too many variables to make the risk calculable.
What's important is that the risk is MANAGEABLE. Skill, experience, commonsense and the assistance of an expert can still make for a high likelihood of a very happy & memorable birthday.
What's important is that the risk is MANAGEABLE. Skill, experience, commonsense and the assistance of an expert can still make for a high likelihood of a very happy & memorable birthday.
Penguinracer said:
...and I'd say forget the amateur-hour cod-statistician talk & point out that the there is insufficient data & too many variables to make the risk calculable.
I agree it isn't calculable (is any risk fully calculable?), and the figures given were just indicative. This is the case in everything we do. Everytime you go for a drive, there is a chance someone might enter your side of the road and hit your car head on, but we percieve that risk to be small (less than 1%?) so we are happy to continue to drive. Penguinracer said:
What's important is that the risk is MANAGEABLE.
How can you state the risk is manageable if you haven't quantified it?Penguinracer said:
Skill, experience, commonsense and the assistance of an expert can still make for a high likelihood of a very happy & memorable birthday.
Agree.Well the search begins in the flesh tomorrow, cannot WAIT to open the doors of some cracking 20+ yr old cars and smell THAT smell, don't even know what it is, just "age" bloody love it!
Love smelling that new car smell for my every day car and love that old car smell even more for the weekends!!
Love smelling that new car smell for my every day car and love that old car smell even more for the weekends!!
BigBazza said:
Well the search begins in the flesh tomorrow, cannot WAIT to open the doors of some cracking 20+ yr old cars and smell THAT smell, don't even know what it is, just "age" bloody love it!
Love smelling that new car smell for my every day car and love that old car smell even more for the weekends!!
AgreedLove smelling that new car smell for my every day car and love that old car smell even more for the weekends!!
Its funny all old 911's smell exactly the same..........
BigBazza said:
Well the search begins in the flesh tomorrow, cannot WAIT to open the doors of some cracking 20+ yr old cars and smell THAT smell, don't even know what it is, just "age" bloody love it!
Love smelling that new car smell for my every day car and love that old car smell even more for the weekends!!
Don't forget the noise. Love smelling that new car smell for my every day car and love that old car smell even more for the weekends!!
I think the one thing we all agree on is that we wish you well, and would all love to be surpised with a gift of a classic porsche.
(personally speaking, even if it was a dog, in an terrible spec, I'd probably still love it)
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