F430 Market Watch
Discussion
Happy new year! If you're a 360 owner then the year gets off to a bang - head over to the Aldous Voice Blog for news of another rise in prices.
Average F430 prices have risen a fraction during December, up 0.73% MoM bringing the index to 99.33.
However, if you look at the average price over the last 10 months it really hasn't changed significantly. I wonder if the F430 had some more depreciating to do over the last year and the overall rise in Ferrari values has neutralised this?
The number of cars for sale has picked up again and is more than double the size of the 360 market. I see 17 cars dropping out of the data (presumably sold) with 24 new entrants.
Here are the main tables:
Here's the plot of asking prices vs mileages:
And here are the theoretical asking prices for the different mileage points:
Here's the big table showing how the data population has changed:
Finally, don't forget that my car is going to feature in the January issue of Classic and Sports car. My understanding is that it is on the shelves for the 8th Jan and there will be minis on the front cover.
Average F430 prices have risen a fraction during December, up 0.73% MoM bringing the index to 99.33.
However, if you look at the average price over the last 10 months it really hasn't changed significantly. I wonder if the F430 had some more depreciating to do over the last year and the overall rise in Ferrari values has neutralised this?
The number of cars for sale has picked up again and is more than double the size of the 360 market. I see 17 cars dropping out of the data (presumably sold) with 24 new entrants.
Here are the main tables:
Here's the plot of asking prices vs mileages:
And here are the theoretical asking prices for the different mileage points:
Here's the big table showing how the data population has changed:
Finally, don't forget that my car is going to feature in the January issue of Classic and Sports car. My understanding is that it is on the shelves for the 8th Jan and there will be minis on the front cover.
red_duke said:
Thanks for the monthly update Aldous. Always interesting and much appreciated.
Can you give us a sense of the purpose of the Classic and Sports Car article? I didn't think there was anything left to write about the F430!
The article is about the Audi R8 V8 but they wanted to see how it stacked up against the F430 today as they would have been natural competitors at the time of launch.Can you give us a sense of the purpose of the Classic and Sports Car article? I didn't think there was anything left to write about the F430!
contango said:
Great thread, love the detail.
How are ceramic brakes viewed by buyers on a fully serviced 10k mile car...... I feeling more of a potential liability than benefit, am I wrong?
I would say that unless all 10k was done on the track then they'd be fine. The brakes are sought after and are very durable under most road operating conditions.How are ceramic brakes viewed by buyers on a fully serviced 10k mile car...... I feeling more of a potential liability than benefit, am I wrong?
Slickhillsy said:
Very wrong!
I hope this is in relation to the previous poster and not the data!OK - time for another update. IF you're interested in 360 prices then head over here: Aldous Voice Blog.
F430 prices have firmed for a 3rd month in a row. The average (mean) asking price has increased 1.28% from last month which leaves the index at 100.61. That means are back to the level when I first started collecting data back in August 2013.
I see 23 cars dropping out of the data (and presumably sold), 19 new cars and 51 unsold. The number of cars priced below £80k has fallen suggesting that activity is skewed to the bottom of the market.
Here's the main data table:
And here's the plot of asking price vs mileage:
Average asking prices for the different mileage points:
Here's the big table which tries to show which cars are moving and which are sticking around:
Here's a chart from something new that I'm developing. I have data on all Ferrari tipos (and am actually collecting more marques). I am toying with the idea of publishing indices for more models as well as charts showing the gaps in prices between different models. Here's the chart for modern V8 Ferraris.
The data hasn't been cleaned as much as the data that goes into my 360 and F430 updates but does serve to show the differences between the different models. What is interesting is the gulf between the 430 and 458. This can only be good for F430 residuals.
Please let me know if there's anything in particular that you'd like to see.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
F430 prices have firmed for a 3rd month in a row. The average (mean) asking price has increased 1.28% from last month which leaves the index at 100.61. That means are back to the level when I first started collecting data back in August 2013.
I see 23 cars dropping out of the data (and presumably sold), 19 new cars and 51 unsold. The number of cars priced below £80k has fallen suggesting that activity is skewed to the bottom of the market.
Here's the main data table:
And here's the plot of asking price vs mileage:
Average asking prices for the different mileage points:
Here's the big table which tries to show which cars are moving and which are sticking around:
Here's a chart from something new that I'm developing. I have data on all Ferrari tipos (and am actually collecting more marques). I am toying with the idea of publishing indices for more models as well as charts showing the gaps in prices between different models. Here's the chart for modern V8 Ferraris.
The data hasn't been cleaned as much as the data that goes into my 360 and F430 updates but does serve to show the differences between the different models. What is interesting is the gulf between the 430 and 458. This can only be good for F430 residuals.
Please let me know if there's anything in particular that you'd like to see.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Average F430 asking prices have dropped back a modest 50bp since this time last month. The price index now stands at 100.10 - pretty much exactly where it was when I started collecting data. The MoM drop has been caused by a number of top end cars being sold which has pushed the average price down a touch.
Activity appears robust with 26 cars falling out of the data (presumably sold) and 21 new cars appearing - a drop of five in total. Interestingly, the numbers have fallen from the above £80k bracket suggesting that the top end of the market is active.
Here's the main table:
And here's the plot of asking price vs mileage:
Average asking prices for the different mileage points. Compare this table to last month's for further support for the assertion that the drop in average price has been caused by the top of the market.
Here's the big table which tries to show which cars are moving and which are sticking around:
That's it for now - I'm monumentally busy at the moment so don't really have time for much else. However, if you want anything in particular you know how to contact me.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Activity appears robust with 26 cars falling out of the data (presumably sold) and 21 new cars appearing - a drop of five in total. Interestingly, the numbers have fallen from the above £80k bracket suggesting that the top end of the market is active.
Here's the main table:
And here's the plot of asking price vs mileage:
Average asking prices for the different mileage points. Compare this table to last month's for further support for the assertion that the drop in average price has been caused by the top of the market.
Here's the big table which tries to show which cars are moving and which are sticking around:
That's it for now - I'm monumentally busy at the moment so don't really have time for much else. However, if you want anything in particular you know how to contact me.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
For those who haven't seen it, the rise in 360 prices seems to be relentless: Aldous Voice Blog.
However, the same can't be said for the F430. Average asking prices have dropped a little (again) and has pushed the index down to 99.84.
Cars are being sold though, I know of a number of transaction going through this month and the data also suggests 29 sold with 21 new cars to the market. What is very interesting is that the number of higher prices cars is declining as a proporation of those for sale. When I first started collecting the data it was as near as damn it a 50:50 split of those priced around the £80k mark. These days it is now 1/3 above £80k and 2/3 below.
Here's the main table. Note that the number of coupes is declining - talking to people in the trade, this seems to be due to cars being bought for RHD markets in Singapore and Malaysia. They don't wont spiders as it is too hot (apparently).
And here's the data for asking price vs mileage:
Here's the big table showing how the population has changed over the month:
I'll end with a warning. I've been involved with a number of F430 purchases over the last few months and have looked at quite a few cars - I am surprised at the number of dogs I have seen. If you're in the market for an F430 and don't know what you're looking at, please get a professional opinion before committing your money.
However, the same can't be said for the F430. Average asking prices have dropped a little (again) and has pushed the index down to 99.84.
Cars are being sold though, I know of a number of transaction going through this month and the data also suggests 29 sold with 21 new cars to the market. What is very interesting is that the number of higher prices cars is declining as a proporation of those for sale. When I first started collecting the data it was as near as damn it a 50:50 split of those priced around the £80k mark. These days it is now 1/3 above £80k and 2/3 below.
Here's the main table. Note that the number of coupes is declining - talking to people in the trade, this seems to be due to cars being bought for RHD markets in Singapore and Malaysia. They don't wont spiders as it is too hot (apparently).
And here's the data for asking price vs mileage:
Here's the big table showing how the population has changed over the month:
I'll end with a warning. I've been involved with a number of F430 purchases over the last few months and have looked at quite a few cars - I am surprised at the number of dogs I have seen. If you're in the market for an F430 and don't know what you're looking at, please get a professional opinion before committing your money.
Good line of thought. I have tweaked my code to produce stats on cars dropping out of the data (presumably sold). It's not perfect but given the limited time I can devote to this it'll do.
Here's a pie chart showing which price bracket the cars were previosuly in. It is interesting to note that nearly 1/4 of sales were for cars advertised above £90k (not this doesn't include those advertised at £89,995).
And here's what you were asking for (I think). On the face of it, the price action does seem to be negatively correlated with volumes...
Here's a pie chart showing which price bracket the cars were previosuly in. It is interesting to note that nearly 1/4 of sales were for cars advertised above £90k (not this doesn't include those advertised at £89,995).
And here's what you were asking for (I think). On the face of it, the price action does seem to be negatively correlated with volumes...
GRBF430F1 said:
Very interesting stats and certainly gives us an idea of asking prices and the trend.
What's not so transparent is the actual transaction price.
We do something similar on new car list prices but then there are so many tactical and marketing offers on new cars the chart showing actual transaction prices in real terms is more interesting with some big differentials to the Advertised list prices.
Good work though
I do have some visibility of transaction prices as I get involved with (to varying degrees) quite a few transactions and talk to a few dealers regularly. The problem for me is how to incorporate such anecdotal data into the hard data set that the adverts provide.What's not so transparent is the actual transaction price.
We do something similar on new car list prices but then there are so many tactical and marketing offers on new cars the chart showing actual transaction prices in real terms is more interesting with some big differentials to the Advertised list prices.
Good work though
I don't think anyone thinks there is no delta between the advertised and transaction prices. The whole point of this analysis is to provide information on trends that lie within the data.
I can say that the delta for 360s is very low (based on my info). I guess this is reflective of how hot that market is right now and the lack of really good cars. On the F430 side, the delta is a little more pronounced but on average seems to be held back by the main dealers negotiating hard.
You mention you compile data on new car prices - do you publish this? Also, how to you enrich the data with transaction prices (I assume you have a statistically different sized data set for each set)?
If the 488 is priced at the same level as the 458 then that has to put further pressure on 458 prices in the near term. The good news for the 430 is that there's still a reasonable buffer between it and the 458, as well as support from the 360.
This got me thinking for reasons why prior models might become more desirable than it's successor. Please feel free to add/correct my thoughts...
355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8
360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8
F430 vs 458
Erm, can't really think of anything. Perhaps it'll age better like the 360 did...
458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's
This got me thinking for reasons why prior models might become more desirable than it's successor. Please feel free to add/correct my thoughts...
355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8
360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8
F430 vs 458
Erm, can't really think of anything. Perhaps it'll age better like the 360 did...
458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's
red_duke said:
Do we think more 458s were manufactured than F430s ?
I don't think so. Ferrari have actually throttled supply during the last 5 years.Spiritual_Beggar said:
Only thing I can think of with the F430 vs 458 is that the F430 is most likely to be the last 'Manual' car Ferrari made.
Very good point.Update list:
355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8
Less produced
360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8
F430 vs 458
Last V8 Ferrari available with a manual gearbox
458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's
A pendant's worst nightmare - making an obvious mistake and getting called out on it....
Updated list:
355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8
Less produced
360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8
F430 vs 458
Last mid engined V8 Ferrari available with a manual gearbox
458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's
Updated list:
355 vs 360 (Obviously this has been real for a while)
"Classic" looks
Pop up headlights
Last truly analogue V8
Less produced
360 vs F430
Softer front end which is aging really well
Nicer rear lights
Last of the dino engine
Last (practically) analogue V8
F430 vs 458
Last mid engined V8 Ferrari available with a manual gearbox
458 vs 488
Last of the mid-engined N/A V8's
Right - apologies for the delay in getting this months update posted. I'm mega busy and am only going to be able to paste in the pictures right now - if I take any longer I'm likely to be killed by my other half. Hopefully I'll still be alive next week to add some commentary....
What I will say is that I think the F430 market is starting to warm up. I know of a number of dealers looking for stock and there are some strong trade bids floating around. With any luck (as I'm long) prices will start to climb before the 360 overtakes!
What I will say is that I think the F430 market is starting to warm up. I know of a number of dealers looking for stock and there are some strong trade bids floating around. With any luck (as I'm long) prices will start to climb before the 360 overtakes!
red_duke said:
Thanks as always Aldous.
As you seem to be involved with some transactions, do you have a sense of how close selling prices are to asking prices?
Sorry I missed your question mate - it was pointed out to me last night over beers.As you seem to be involved with some transactions, do you have a sense of how close selling prices are to asking prices?
Discounts to asking prices are variable - main dealers are very reluctant to negotiate on price and are confident of selling at current levels. They are also bidding hard for good stock.
However, I do know of people getting good discounts offered on the cars that seem to be sticking around a bit (usually with the non-specialist independent dealers). Whether you'd want to buy one of these cars is another matter...
I'll bet someone comes along now and tells us they got £20k off their F430 from a main dealer last week!
Sorry for the delay in posting these up but I have a lot going on right now.
For news of more 360 price increases head over to my blog here: http://aldousvoice.com/2015/06/01/ferrari-360-mark...
F430 prices have increased 2.47% MoM which leaves the price index at 103.70. I personally think that the F430 market is turning a corner and prices are going to climb as people realise what a relative bargain the car offers when compared to other offerings.
Activity is robust - I see 29 cars sold and 26 new entrants to the market. The vast majority of cars sold were offered at £70k or less but a couple of cars were sold with asking prices between £90-£100k and a further 2 above £100k.
A lot of the cheaper cars have been sold and not replaced - this means that this is the first time I have reported more cars for sale over £80k than below. The number of cars for sale is at it's lowest since (my) records began.
Here's the main data table:
And here's the mileage data:
Here's the chart that was requested a while back...
Finally, here's the big table showing the cars in and out of this month's data.
That's it - as usual please drop me a line if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
For news of more 360 price increases head over to my blog here: http://aldousvoice.com/2015/06/01/ferrari-360-mark...
F430 prices have increased 2.47% MoM which leaves the price index at 103.70. I personally think that the F430 market is turning a corner and prices are going to climb as people realise what a relative bargain the car offers when compared to other offerings.
Activity is robust - I see 29 cars sold and 26 new entrants to the market. The vast majority of cars sold were offered at £70k or less but a couple of cars were sold with asking prices between £90-£100k and a further 2 above £100k.
A lot of the cheaper cars have been sold and not replaced - this means that this is the first time I have reported more cars for sale over £80k than below. The number of cars for sale is at it's lowest since (my) records began.
Here's the main data table:
And here's the mileage data:
Here's the chart that was requested a while back...
Finally, here's the big table showing the cars in and out of this month's data.
That's it - as usual please drop me a line if you want anything in particular.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
GT Two said:
Im surprised that there are more spiders for sale currently.
Lots of coupes are being exported to hot RHD-only countries like Malaysia and Singapore (it is too hot out there for a drop top).Nano2nd said:
surely the best long term ownership prospect is:
non red (rarer colours)
manual (no outdated auto)
coupe (best drivers car & no expensive roof to worry about)
steel brakes (will CCM be difficult to source as the car ages and as not much aftermarket emerges?)
thoughts?
If the 430 follows the 360 then a manual coupe will be the most desirable. The lines of the coupe look better (IMO) and there is no complex (read expensive to fix) F1 system or roof.non red (rarer colours)
manual (no outdated auto)
coupe (best drivers car & no expensive roof to worry about)
steel brakes (will CCM be difficult to source as the car ages and as not much aftermarket emerges?)
thoughts?
markst said:
you want to be careful using data from Jperformance - he might have 1 car - but uses old ads to get more interest.
It's a dilemma that I am aware of but short of calling up every ad I'm not sure how to filter the false adverts out. The fact that there is a reasonably large data set helps negate the impact of them.Edited by voicey on Thursday 4th June 09:03
gcpeters said:
voicey said:
It's a dilemma that I am aware of but short of calling up every ad I'm not sure how to filter the false adverts out. The fact that there is a reasonably large data set helps negate the impact of them.
You still have the hydraulic system for the e-diff though I believe?Edited by voicey on Thursday 4th June 09:03
voicey said:
If the 430 follows the 360 then a manual coupe will be the most desirable. The lines of the coupe look better (IMO) and there is no complex (read expensive to fix) F1 system or roof.
Yes, there is the hydraulic controlled E-Diff fitted to all F430s.Once again I must apologise for the tardiness of this months update - I have a lot going on with my day job alongside running around helping people out with their cars in the evenings and weekends.
For 360 prices please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog
I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and call this point in time as the start of a bull run for the F430. Prices has been relatively static for a while amid relentless appreciation of other tipos. It has got to the point where some low mileage 360s are advertised for the same price as the equivalent F430 (spec for spec). At some point the market will wake up to what a (relative) bargain the F430 is.
Average asking prices have increased 2.46% over the last month - that marks a 7% rise since the start of the year. The price index now stands at 106.25.
Activity looks to be robust with 24 cars dropping out the data (presumably sold) and 34 cars replacing them. The majority of sales are occurring in the £80-90k bracket. It is also interesting to note the number of cars for sale at £100k or over (and I'm including cars at £99,xxx) has risen from 4 to 7.
The number of cars offered for sale has picked up a touch but the split around the £80k point remains biased towards the top of the market.
Here's the big table:
And here's the plot of mileage vs price. The data fits around the curve very well and there are few outliers.
Average asking prices for different mileages:
The chart of sold volumes vs price index:
And here's the big table showing which cars are in and out of the data:
That's it for now - please let me know if you want anything else.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
For 360 prices please head over here: Aldous Voice Blog
I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and call this point in time as the start of a bull run for the F430. Prices has been relatively static for a while amid relentless appreciation of other tipos. It has got to the point where some low mileage 360s are advertised for the same price as the equivalent F430 (spec for spec). At some point the market will wake up to what a (relative) bargain the F430 is.
Average asking prices have increased 2.46% over the last month - that marks a 7% rise since the start of the year. The price index now stands at 106.25.
Activity looks to be robust with 24 cars dropping out the data (presumably sold) and 34 cars replacing them. The majority of sales are occurring in the £80-90k bracket. It is also interesting to note the number of cars for sale at £100k or over (and I'm including cars at £99,xxx) has risen from 4 to 7.
The number of cars offered for sale has picked up a touch but the split around the £80k point remains biased towards the top of the market.
Here's the big table:
And here's the plot of mileage vs price. The data fits around the curve very well and there are few outliers.
Average asking prices for different mileages:
The chart of sold volumes vs price index:
And here's the big table showing which cars are in and out of the data:
That's it for now - please let me know if you want anything else.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
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