F430 Market Watch
Discussion
Time for another update. For the latest on 360 prices please head over to Aldous Voice Blog.
Average F430 asking prices have barely moved over the last month - the index has increased a measly 0.11% to 106.37.
However, this small rise should be put in the context of how the data sample has changed. Activity at the top of the market has been fairly robust with two cars priced over £100k being sold. Compare that to the other end, where the same cars remain for sale. This has the effect of subduing what has been a reasonably strong month for F430 prices.
The number of cars and their distribution around the £80k tipping point seems fairly steady compared with the prior month:
Here's the big table:
Here's the plot of mileages vs price (the curve remains well fitted):
Average asking prices for the mileage points:
Here's the pie chart showing which price bracket sold cars have been in:
The chart of sold volumes vs price index:
There has been some discussion regarding price premiums for manual cars, including some optimistic prices being banded about. In the current data sample, on average there is no price difference between the two gearboxes. Given that manual cars were priced at a discount to F1 in the past this could be the start of a resurgence for the old fashioned way of selecting cogs...
And here's the big table showing which cars are in and out of the data:
That's it for now apart from a little warning to buyers to be extra careful. I've seen a few cars this month that have been hiding a less than desirable past so please be careful before parting with your money...
As usual, please get in touch if you think I can help with anything.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Average F430 asking prices have barely moved over the last month - the index has increased a measly 0.11% to 106.37.
However, this small rise should be put in the context of how the data sample has changed. Activity at the top of the market has been fairly robust with two cars priced over £100k being sold. Compare that to the other end, where the same cars remain for sale. This has the effect of subduing what has been a reasonably strong month for F430 prices.
The number of cars and their distribution around the £80k tipping point seems fairly steady compared with the prior month:
Here's the big table:
Here's the plot of mileages vs price (the curve remains well fitted):
Average asking prices for the mileage points:
Here's the pie chart showing which price bracket sold cars have been in:
The chart of sold volumes vs price index:
There has been some discussion regarding price premiums for manual cars, including some optimistic prices being banded about. In the current data sample, on average there is no price difference between the two gearboxes. Given that manual cars were priced at a discount to F1 in the past this could be the start of a resurgence for the old fashioned way of selecting cogs...
And here's the big table showing which cars are in and out of the data:
That's it for now apart from a little warning to buyers to be extra careful. I've seen a few cars this month that have been hiding a less than desirable past so please be careful before parting with your money...
As usual, please get in touch if you think I can help with anything.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Hewbie said:
those figures dont seem to show all sales?
i sold my black LHD 430 within that time frame ,
i have another blue LHD for sale now aswell!
does this take into affect only RHD?
Is this your black car? http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/f...i sold my black LHD 430 within that time frame ,
i have another blue LHD for sale now aswell!
does this take into affect only RHD?
If so then it is still listed for sale in the classifieds and therefore is still in my data as unsold.
I can't see your blue car in the classifieds - have you got a link?
red_duke said:
Always an interesting read. Thanks again Aldous.
A few low and middle priced cars have been for sale for the 5 years I've been following the market. It would be interesting to see a price index where the impact of each vehicle is inversely proportional to how long it's been around.
I don't think it is easily feasible to do as you ask. However, I might be able to put together something based on cars the have dropped out of the data (presumably sold). Let me have a think....A few low and middle priced cars have been for sale for the 5 years I've been following the market. It would be interesting to see a price index where the impact of each vehicle is inversely proportional to how long it's been around.
Hewbie said:
no my ad has no expired
i sold my black lhd f1 430 with 45kmiles for 58k! 2005 54 plate
i have a blue mirebau 2006 LHD f1 up at 62995 at the moment! on AT along with a red 360 1999 at 45k again LHD.
I can't see your black car in my data. Was it definitely advertised on PH? I've checked my intra-month scrapes and it's not there.i sold my black lhd f1 430 with 45kmiles for 58k! 2005 54 plate
i have a blue mirebau 2006 LHD f1 up at 62995 at the moment! on AT along with a red 360 1999 at 45k again LHD.
I won't have your blue car in the data unless it is on PH. I only collect data from this site.
PGNCerbera said:
thanks Aldous. Always very interesting.
Thank you for the kind comment, you are most welcome.WEHGuy said:
Well after waiting 29 years and following this thread for 2 years, I finally put a deposit down on a 2007 Red F1 Spider yesterday. It is getting a full inspection and service, so should hopefully be ready by the end of the week.
Thank you Aldous for this thread. It has made the decision so much easier. Hopefully I can own it for a while and actually make money on it!
Congratulations. Is that the car that is being sold privately? Thank you Aldous for this thread. It has made the decision so much easier. Hopefully I can own it for a while and actually make money on it!
WEHGuy said:
Yes, for the price difference, I decided to take the gamble and not have a warranty from a dealer. Fingers crossed, it doesn't bite me in the ass. 
It will be fine. Good example of these cars are generally trouble free (apart from the known weak spots like manifolds, ball joints, etc).Is that car still wearing the Irish number plate ending in 05? If you know what it's original plate was please do let me know!
Hi Allister,
I'm sorry that you have gone through this pain with your new car - it must be a real pisser to spend all that money to find that the car wasn't A1. Thankfully you have a warranty and you're getting the car sorted.
With regard to your question on the manifolds - they will be brand new Mk2. As you know, even these are prone to failure so it is important to get them checked out regularly.
Your story highlights the need for prospective purchasers to get a car inspected before parting with their money. It also highlights that a FFSH really is no guarantee that the car has been looked after properly - in fact, in my experience, FFSH usually indicates that the car will not have been serviced correctly.
If you, or anyone else for that matter, would like any more help or information you only have to drop me a line: http://aldousvoice.com/contact/
Cheers,
AV
I'm sorry that you have gone through this pain with your new car - it must be a real pisser to spend all that money to find that the car wasn't A1. Thankfully you have a warranty and you're getting the car sorted.
With regard to your question on the manifolds - they will be brand new Mk2. As you know, even these are prone to failure so it is important to get them checked out regularly.
Your story highlights the need for prospective purchasers to get a car inspected before parting with their money. It also highlights that a FFSH really is no guarantee that the car has been looked after properly - in fact, in my experience, FFSH usually indicates that the car will not have been serviced correctly.
If you, or anyone else for that matter, would like any more help or information you only have to drop me a line: http://aldousvoice.com/contact/
Cheers,
AV
Righto - I'm on holiday so it's going to be brief. For the latest on 360 prices head over to Aldous Voice Blog.
F430 prices have added another 3% over the last month - the price index now stands at 109.57. This is the fifth straight month of an increase and asking prices have added 10% since the start of the year.
The number of cars for sale (on PH) remains at 68 but the distribution around the £80k mark has skewed even further to the topside.
Big table:
Plot:
Prices:
Others:
Any questions/request please ask away but be prepared to wait until I return home next week.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
F430 prices have added another 3% over the last month - the price index now stands at 109.57. This is the fifth straight month of an increase and asking prices have added 10% since the start of the year.
The number of cars for sale (on PH) remains at 68 but the distribution around the £80k mark has skewed even further to the topside.
Big table:
Plot:
Prices:
Others:
Any questions/request please ask away but be prepared to wait until I return home next week.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
It's going to be another brief update as I have a lot going on. For the latest on 360 prices head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.
F430 values have increased for a sixth straight month - average prices rose 2.22% over the last month which leaves the index at 112.00.
The skew of prices around the £80k mark has moved further in favour of the topside with the number of cars advertised still fairly low:
Big table:
Plot:
Average prices:
There's been some chat about manual values (again). Here's some analysis on the current delta...
Other charts/tables:
Any questions/request please ask away.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
F430 values have increased for a sixth straight month - average prices rose 2.22% over the last month which leaves the index at 112.00.
The skew of prices around the £80k mark has moved further in favour of the topside with the number of cars advertised still fairly low:
Big table:
Plot:
Average prices:
There's been some chat about manual values (again). Here's some analysis on the current delta...
Other charts/tables:
Any questions/request please ask away.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Time for this years penultimate update. For news of a shock 15% rise in 360 prices please head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.
Average F430 prices have increased by just 0.47% over the last month - the F430 price index now stands at 112.52. This small increase in average values is hiding a bigger rise at the top of the market. The number of cars priced at £100k or more (excluding £99,999) was 2 in September, 5 in October and 9 in November. This includes a very optimistically priced spider at the best part of £140k - which would buy you a very nice 458 Italia. Are we going to see F430 prices start to overlap the 458 as many other older tipos have?
The number of cars for sale has increased a touch this month but the skew around the £80k mark remains 80:20 (ie: 80% of cars are priced above £80k).
Here's the big table:
Here's the mileage/price data:
The premium for a manual car seems to have firmed up a little. I can remember when it was nigh on impossible to sell a manual car unless it was deeply discounted. How times have changed...
Here are the other charts/tables:
Any questions/requests please ask away.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
Average F430 prices have increased by just 0.47% over the last month - the F430 price index now stands at 112.52. This small increase in average values is hiding a bigger rise at the top of the market. The number of cars priced at £100k or more (excluding £99,999) was 2 in September, 5 in October and 9 in November. This includes a very optimistically priced spider at the best part of £140k - which would buy you a very nice 458 Italia. Are we going to see F430 prices start to overlap the 458 as many other older tipos have?
The number of cars for sale has increased a touch this month but the skew around the £80k mark remains 80:20 (ie: 80% of cars are priced above £80k).
Here's the big table:
Here's the mileage/price data:
The premium for a manual car seems to have firmed up a little. I can remember when it was nigh on impossible to sell a manual car unless it was deeply discounted. How times have changed...
Here are the other charts/tables:
Any questions/requests please ask away.
Regards,
Aldous Voice.
dopamine said:
Really great service you provide Aldous - thanks!
I have contacted you privately previously, but following on to that email I thought others on here might be interested in my experience.
I have a RHD Grigio Silverstone F430 Manual, CCMs, black daytona interior, carbon driving zone, FFSH and all is in good order. I was lucky and bought a good one and thus far, except two engine mounts needing replacing and 8 Hill Engineering ball joints the car has cost me nothing... I have had other marques over the years and can say with conviction this one is the most reliable sports car I have owned to date.
I paid £73k for mine 15 months ago - averaging off the elements you track I get a value today of £90335.50 - I can't believe that such an increase has happened, especially as I have added 9000 miles onto mine! Amazing timing!
I read Tom Hartleys interview in the paper over the weekend and he seems to think the market is about to crash by 20% - I'm guessing he is talking more about the really top end stuff though?
Where do you think it will end Aldous?
Thanks again for this great series of posts!
Cheers
TC
Thank you for the kind comments. It sounds like you have a very desirable car in the exclusive Grigio Silverstone (the connoisseurs choice). It goes to show that if you buy well then these cars aren't that bad to run at all.I have contacted you privately previously, but following on to that email I thought others on here might be interested in my experience.
I have a RHD Grigio Silverstone F430 Manual, CCMs, black daytona interior, carbon driving zone, FFSH and all is in good order. I was lucky and bought a good one and thus far, except two engine mounts needing replacing and 8 Hill Engineering ball joints the car has cost me nothing... I have had other marques over the years and can say with conviction this one is the most reliable sports car I have owned to date.
I paid £73k for mine 15 months ago - averaging off the elements you track I get a value today of £90335.50 - I can't believe that such an increase has happened, especially as I have added 9000 miles onto mine! Amazing timing!
I read Tom Hartleys interview in the paper over the weekend and he seems to think the market is about to crash by 20% - I'm guessing he is talking more about the really top end stuff though?
Where do you think it will end Aldous?
Thanks again for this great series of posts!
Cheers
TC
I try not to get involved with predicting the future but firmly believe that Ferrari values (and that of other similar marques) are driven by the worldwide economic climate. At the moment money is cheap to borrow and doesn't provide much of a return when in the bank - this has driven the interest in alternative investments, including cars. At our end of the market it means people are spending their money on luxury goods such as F430s.
The next key events for me will be when the FOMC (and to a lesser extent but more local to home, the BOE) raise interest rates. The rise in USD interest rates is predicted to have ramifications all around the world which may temper demand for luxury goods. It will be interesting to watch top end auction results once interest rates have gone up.
red_duke said:
Surely any increase in interest rates will be minimal so as not to derail the economic recovery. In which case demand for Ferraris will be undiminished.
If the FOMC raise interest rates it isn't just going to impact the USA. Companies around the world are carrying trillions in real and synthetic USD denominated debt - just because the USA can stomach a rate rise it doesn't mean that these companies can (as they operate in completely different territories).A rise in western interest rates could be real bad news for other economies around the world.
The bottom hasn't fallen out of the market, yet. I apologise for the delay in updating you all but clients have to take a priority.
For the latest on 360 prices please head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.
Ferrari F430 prices have actually softened a touch over the last month - average prices fell 1.04% which leaves the price index at 111.34.
Another headline is that F430 prices have increased 12% during 2015.
The number of cars for sale has dropped back down but the spread of prices around the £80k mark remains at 80:20.
Big table:
Price vs mileage:
The premium for a manual car is around £12k - interestingly this is bang in line with the 360 manual which attracts a £10k premium.
The other charts/tables:
As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.
Aldous Voice.
For the latest on 360 prices please head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.
Ferrari F430 prices have actually softened a touch over the last month - average prices fell 1.04% which leaves the price index at 111.34.
Another headline is that F430 prices have increased 12% during 2015.
The number of cars for sale has dropped back down but the spread of prices around the £80k mark remains at 80:20.
Big table:
Price vs mileage:
The premium for a manual car is around £12k - interestingly this is bang in line with the 360 manual which attracts a £10k premium.
The other charts/tables:
As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.
Aldous Voice.
ZeroH said:
Great thread.
Not sure if the data can be mined but would be interesting to know if from a pure return perspective, would it have been better to put money (assume same price point) into a late model (08) fully optioned (race seats/carbon etc) LHD car or a much higher miles early (05) basic spec RHD car?
More than ever it's a current consideration as RHD prices have soared
I'm sorry, I missed this post. I'll try and dig out some data....Not sure if the data can be mined but would be interesting to know if from a pure return perspective, would it have been better to put money (assume same price point) into a late model (08) fully optioned (race seats/carbon etc) LHD car or a much higher miles early (05) basic spec RHD car?
More than ever it's a current consideration as RHD prices have soared
Happy new year! For the latest on 360 prices please head over to the Aldous Voice Blog.
F430 prices continue to be buoyant - the average asking price has increased by a generous 3.73% over the last month. The price index now stands at 115.19 which represents a 20% increase of the last two years.
This increase in prices has been driven by a glut of new cars at the top of the market. Last month there were 5 cars prices at £100k or more (not including those at £99,999). This month that number has more than doubled to 11 and includes the incredibly priced spider at Peter Jarvis. A car like this has to be on SoR which makes me wonder where a bonafide trade bid would be...
Big table:
Price vs Mileage:
Manual cars are still attracting a premium however the low-mileage F1 cars at the top of the market have played havoc with the stats. I believe that like-for-like, a manual car is at least £10k more expensive than the F1.
The other charts/tables:
As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.
Aldous Voice.
F430 prices continue to be buoyant - the average asking price has increased by a generous 3.73% over the last month. The price index now stands at 115.19 which represents a 20% increase of the last two years.
This increase in prices has been driven by a glut of new cars at the top of the market. Last month there were 5 cars prices at £100k or more (not including those at £99,999). This month that number has more than doubled to 11 and includes the incredibly priced spider at Peter Jarvis. A car like this has to be on SoR which makes me wonder where a bonafide trade bid would be...
Big table:
Price vs Mileage:
Manual cars are still attracting a premium however the low-mileage F1 cars at the top of the market have played havoc with the stats. I believe that like-for-like, a manual car is at least £10k more expensive than the F1.
The other charts/tables:
As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.
Aldous Voice.
red_duke said:
Thanks for the update Aldous. It would appear the bulk of the 20% price increase has occurred in the last 12 months. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues into 2016.
Are you contemplating a jump to the 458 any time soon?
It would make sense for F430 owners to think about making the jump to a 458 as the gap narrows. However, I have some other projects in the pipeline that will require funding so I personally can'y justify the spend right now.Are you contemplating a jump to the 458 any time soon?
thecook101 said:
Many thanks for the update Aldous. Certainly makes for comforting reading. While I recognise the leap forward that the 458 was, l'm not sure swapping an appreciating asset for a depreciating one makes sense right now. Do you have a view on 458 values at the moment, maybe it's time to switch from tracking 360/430 data to 430/458 ..? 
I have the data - in fact, I have data on all Ferrari tipos as well as Maserati, Lamborghini and McLaren. However, I just don't have the time to do much with it these days. Sorry!LY99 said:
Hi Voicey
Thanks for the interesting updates as always.
Any idea what the production figure split is between rosso corsa and rosso scuderia? I'm beginning to think my dads RHD manual coupe in Scuderia is a rare spec as I've not seen any others for sale
That's a question for JT - I'm sure he'll be along at some point.Thanks for the interesting updates as always.
Any idea what the production figure split is between rosso corsa and rosso scuderia? I'm beginning to think my dads RHD manual coupe in Scuderia is a rare spec as I've not seen any others for sale
Average F430 asking prices have risen again, this time by 0.75% over the last month. This leaves the price index at 116.37. Now although prices have been on the rise, they are hardly knocking on the door of the 458 and the rise has lagged considerably behind the 360 (the 360 index is at 157, both started about the same time). See more here.
The modest increase in prices has been driven by a couple of additions at the top end - there are now 13 cars offered for sale in excess of £100k (not including £99,999). Talking to both buyers and sellers it seems that demand remains strong despite the time of year. I wonder how things will look once we get a bout of good weather?
Here's the big table:
Price vs mileage:
Now I must apologise for the inaccurate representation of the manual vs F1 delta. The algo isn't perfect and neither are vendors when submitting their adverts. Given it is such an important factor now I will now eyeball all adverts that are detected as manual. You wont be surprised to learn that the premium for a gated car is substantial.
Here are your other charts:
As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.
Aldous Voice.
The modest increase in prices has been driven by a couple of additions at the top end - there are now 13 cars offered for sale in excess of £100k (not including £99,999). Talking to both buyers and sellers it seems that demand remains strong despite the time of year. I wonder how things will look once we get a bout of good weather?
Here's the big table:
Price vs mileage:
Now I must apologise for the inaccurate representation of the manual vs F1 delta. The algo isn't perfect and neither are vendors when submitting their adverts. Given it is such an important factor now I will now eyeball all adverts that are detected as manual. You wont be surprised to learn that the premium for a gated car is substantial.
Here are your other charts:
As usual, please do get in touch if you have any questions or special requests.
Aldous Voice.
dvb247 said:
Great thread Voicey, I read a comment that F430's are on the cusp of rising considerably, something to do with now being 10 years old and that all Ferrari's in recent history share this 10 year phenomenon? The chap that made the statement is so convinced he's bought back it to the F430 model (his words not mine!!!)
Is this just wishful thinking or is there some truth in it?
In my opinion, that's rubbish. Prices are determined by lots of other things and not an arbitrary point in time. When the 360 was 10 years old (about five years ago) prices were going down....Is this just wishful thinking or is there some truth in it?
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