Choosing a fund or stocks
Discussion
Being of farming stock, I have always been told to be into everything everyone else isn't, so not being in the farming game & being the 2nd son and all that, I am happy to make the prediction that at the moment oil prices are higher than I think they will be in 2 to 3 years, quite a bit higher.
My reasoning being that all the taps were switched off on even the juiciest development projects in 1999 and 2000 when oil was on the floor and when it was costing more to extract the oil than the price the producers where getting on the open market. Now everyone and their granny has turned the taps back on the oil development projects and a large slug of new oil is going to start hitting the market within the next 3 years and continue to do so for some time after that.
I'm even starting to consider buying a gas guzzler on the back of my hunch and while the prices of all sorts of exotica are on the floor.
So wanting to exploit my theory, how do I choose a fund or stock that ain't going to go tits up before they have the time and money to exploit this huge reduction in oil prices and make lots of money for me?
I'm obviously not going to bet the house on it, just the money I can afford to leave for 5 to 6 years and hopefully make a good return on, but I know that I am not knowledgeable enough to avoid all the potential basketcases that will inevitably have a cashflow crisis before being able to exploit the new world order of lower oil prices, so I'd appreciate your thoughts on what you would do if my theory was right.
My reasoning being that all the taps were switched off on even the juiciest development projects in 1999 and 2000 when oil was on the floor and when it was costing more to extract the oil than the price the producers where getting on the open market. Now everyone and their granny has turned the taps back on the oil development projects and a large slug of new oil is going to start hitting the market within the next 3 years and continue to do so for some time after that.
I'm even starting to consider buying a gas guzzler on the back of my hunch and while the prices of all sorts of exotica are on the floor.
So wanting to exploit my theory, how do I choose a fund or stock that ain't going to go tits up before they have the time and money to exploit this huge reduction in oil prices and make lots of money for me?
I'm obviously not going to bet the house on it, just the money I can afford to leave for 5 to 6 years and hopefully make a good return on, but I know that I am not knowledgeable enough to avoid all the potential basketcases that will inevitably have a cashflow crisis before being able to exploit the new world order of lower oil prices, so I'd appreciate your thoughts on what you would do if my theory was right.
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