Deutsche Bank - They think its all over.....

Deutsche Bank - They think its all over.....

Author
Discussion

Four Litre

Original Poster:

2,013 posts

191 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Chairman comes out saying "we are rock solid"," nothing to see here!"

Looking at the charts this is tracking the same way Lehman went. Are we in for 2008 Mk2 with bells on....

http://www.wsj.com/articles/deutsche-bank-shares-d...

When a chairman comes out saying "Its all good" it seems that means its all over and we are in the final stages of stuffing our lifeboats full of £££.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/15/deutsche-bank-a-tic...

75 trillion in derivatives, what could possibly go wrong!

hornetrider

63,161 posts

204 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Batten down the hatches.

Fastdruid

8,623 posts

151 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
WSJ is behind a paywall so can't read it.

I can guess the gist however.

DB is too big to fail. I know it's zerohedge which are sensationalist doom mongers but this is an interesting view on it http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-20/could-ger...

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?

Sheepshanks

32,529 posts

118 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
hornetrider said:
Batten down the hatches.
There's a few very scary things bubbling away at the moment.

Newc

1,846 posts

181 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
More like RBS than Lehman. The German state cannot allow DB to fail, and will nationalise it if that's the only option.

The $75tn figure is, like all newspaper reporting of derivative positions, utter bks.

Sheets Tabuer

18,898 posts

214 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Merkel has already said there will be no bailout.

Wonder what will happen when it reaches 10 euros.

anonymous-user

53 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
scare mongering , DB are incompetent but not bust. the 14bn fine looming is driving the share drop, great uncertainty but not bust.

Mark Benson

7,498 posts

268 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
I'd always assumed Deutsche would be bailed out in the end and that belief still holds, though more shakily than it did after Merkel's announcement the other day.

However, she's between a rock and a hard place: DB go to the wall and damage the German and European economies, Italian and French banks suffer serious knock on effects. Or they're bailed and German calls for a hard line on enforcing EZ rules in Italy and Greece look at best inconsistent.

So I do wonder if behind the scenes, there are talks to find ways of bailing out which don't look like a bailout (ie. nationalisation or similar) as the alternative could well be catastrophic for the EZ and the wider European economy as well.

hornetrider

63,161 posts

204 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Who likes a pretty share price graph?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/26/d...

Four Litre

Original Poster:

2,013 posts

191 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting!

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting!
Two questions actually. The answers appear to be neither and very little.

Thorodin

2,459 posts

132 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
This $14 billion the US has imposed on DB, isn't that for exactly the same thing F. Mae & F. Mac did some years ago - wrapping junk in a nice shiny coat?

matrignano

4,345 posts

209 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
75 trillion in derivatives, what could possibly go wrong!
That would be the notional volume of underlying securities that the derivatives "track", it is not the actual exposure of the bank to derivative positions.

Most derivatives are collateralised and the bank keeps that collateral as "buffer" to protect itself (to some extent) against large market moves.
Then there are obviously liquidity, counterparty and ops risks that can further increase potential losses.

But overall a bank like DB might be exposed to say max 1% of those 75 trillion, which at 750bn is still a massive number, but very very unlikely to happen - would require lots of other banks/financial counterparties to go bust, very significant market moves and a liquidity crisis to occur all at once.


Four Litre

Original Poster:

2,013 posts

191 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Zod said:
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting!
Two questions actually. The answers appear to be neither and very little.
Pleased to meet to too Zod. You appear to either got out of bed the wrong side today or are a complete and utter cock. Judging by your posting, I can only assume the latter.

Unless your the chairman of DB, why the need to behave like an utter bell-end? Im guessing small guy with a keyboard syndrome?

Bit of a Unit

6,663 posts

196 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Watched The Big Short last night having read the excellent book on hols this summer. It would appear we do not learn!

Good watch for those that know the story.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
boxxob said:
Zod said:
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting!
Two questions actually. The answers appear to be neither and very little.
I already thought you thought that from your question(s). smile So more of a 'answer within a question'.

What's the word on the street for the shoeshine boy on his knees before the great Zod?
I polish my own shoes actually.

sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
Pleased to meet to too Zod. You appear to either got out of bed the wrong side today or are a complete and utter cock. Judging by your posting, I can only assume the latter.

Unless your the chairman of DB, why the need to behave like an utter bell-end? Im guessing small guy with a keyboard syndrome?
So do you understand the $75 trillion number is meaningless nonsense or not?

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
boxxob said:
Zod said:
I polish my own shoes actually.
and do you kneel in front of the mirror to do it? biggrin

ahem, seriously now, what's the Zod-take on the stories posted? Your answers so far (and previous DB comments) allude to that fact you think they are balderdash.
Deutsche has been poorly managed for years and has been too arrogant to deal with its problems. That is no longer the case, but it has a long way to go to get over its current issues. It is able to service interest payments on its debt. There is more to come out over its regulatory issues, but it has made progress.

Zod

35,295 posts

257 months

Tuesday 27th September 2016
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Four Litre said:
Zod said:
Your profile says you are an analyst. An equity or credit research analyst? If not, how much do you understand of what you posted?
A question with a question - interesting!
Two questions actually. The answers appear to be neither and very little.
Pleased to meet to too Zod. You appear to either got out of bed the wrong side today or are a complete and utter cock. Judging by your posting, I can only assume the latter.

Unless your the chairman of DB, why the need to behave like an utter bell-end? Im guessing small guy with a keyboard syndrome?
I'm not the Chairman of DB. In any case, the CEO, John Cryan, is the one better placed to know the details.

What motivated your original post? Not knowledge, so fear of the unknown or just bank bashing?

I do have a keyboard (don't we all - in fact, I have several), but I'm quite big (this is PH, after all).