Arrive Alive claims credit for 68% reduction in KSI
Discussion
Welsh Daily Post, Wednesday.
North Wales Arrive Alive speed traps reportedly took £6 million in fines from 2002 - 2004.
Accused of boosting government coffers by over £1 million from 2002 - 2004, the Arrive Alive manager claims, " What is relevant is that we have reduced those killed or seriously injured by 68%.
Fatality figures from 1997 to 2004 are:
54,38,47,60,47,44,49,59. Arrive Alive began targeting speed limit offences in late 2000.
Can someone tell me where the 68% reduction is? I realise that using the killed and seriously injured figures can disguise a rise in deaths but this 68% claim seems ludicrous.
North Wales Arrive Alive speed traps reportedly took £6 million in fines from 2002 - 2004.
Accused of boosting government coffers by over £1 million from 2002 - 2004, the Arrive Alive manager claims, " What is relevant is that we have reduced those killed or seriously injured by 68%.
Fatality figures from 1997 to 2004 are:
54,38,47,60,47,44,49,59. Arrive Alive began targeting speed limit offences in late 2000.
Can someone tell me where the 68% reduction is? I realise that using the killed and seriously injured figures can disguise a rise in deaths but this 68% claim seems ludicrous.
Did they use the phrase 'a 68% reduction at camera sites'? The they vcan use regression to the mean as a positive result for themselves and not have to count accidents, which, of course, are random events, at any other locations. If they didn't use the phrase, I bet they meant to, or, alternatively, the media failed to put that phrase in.
It would be interesting to know, wouldn't it.
It would be interesting to know, wouldn't it.
That's nothing! There was an accident on my road last year. First one I've ever heard of there, so straight away I tied a little brown piece of string to a gatepost right near where it happened.
This year... nothing!
I've singlehandedly reduced accidents on my road by a whopping 100% using the (soon to be patented) brown string method.
Surely I deserve some sort of award?
SM
This year... nothing!
I've singlehandedly reduced accidents on my road by a whopping 100% using the (soon to be patented) brown string method.
Surely I deserve some sort of award?
SM
supermono said:
That's nothing! There was an accident on my road last year. First one I've ever heard of there, so straight away I tied a little brown piece of string to a gatepost right near where it happened.
This year... nothing!
I've singlehandedly reduced accidents on my road by a whopping 100% using the (soon to be patented) brown string method.
Surely I deserve some sort of award?
SM
You are right! I suggest we start the 'Brown String Partnership'! We will also employ regional people to be in charge of placing of the brown strings as the more brown strings we place the more brown strings we can afford to place in the future!
From now on we will call you Mr Brownstringstrom and put you in charge of North Wales Police...
7db said:
I don't understand the business model -- how do brown strings get money from the motorist?
When you drive past them fast enough to move them, we send you a nice letter asking for £60.
Thank you for contacting the Brown String Partnership
PS If you have reason to believe that you were not speeding, and it may be because our Brown Strings dont work properly, please be assured we are all trained to use the Brown Strings, and our strings have been Approved as we blew on them and they seemed to move like the American ones (which incidentally have been taken out of service in America).
Oh, and I know that we didn't set the string up properly, but our guidelines dont need to be followed for your conviction to stand.
>> Edited by justinp1 on Thursday 15th September 19:27
7db said:
I still don't understand. Surely sometimes gusts will move the brown string, and people will be sent letters by mistake.
I assume they will just ignore the letter if they know that they weren't doing anything wrong?
The scammers assure us this won't happen - all of their operatives have been trained to form prior opinion of string movement...
One thing that is of concern though - will the string suffer from 'slip effect' when it gets wet ??
I just put their figures into a graph and got the following. Where is this 68% reduction? Either there's a couple of reductions showing (but not recently), or it's an essentially random series.
Sorry, I put the year at the top of each bar and not the number, by mistake.
>> Edited by Peter Ward on Friday 16th September 11:42
Sorry, I put the year at the top of each bar and not the number, by mistake.
>> Edited by Peter Ward on Friday 16th September 11:42
SS2. said:
I still don't understand. Surely sometimes gusts will move the brown string, and people will be sent letters by mistake.
I assume they will just ignore the letter if they know that they weren't doing anything wrong?
The scammers assure us this won't happen - all of their operatives have been trained to form prior opinion of string movement...
One thing that is of concern though - will the string suffer from 'slip effect' when it gets wet ??
Correct on your first point.
But the second, No, no and no. Look. I import these strings from America and I used to be a Police Officer for 20 years until I found I could make more money doing this. This makes me an impartial expert witness where I have been called to a number of people's cases where they think slip error happens and they have all lost. So this must be right.
Now, I realise that I used to say that slip errors are reduced to a minimum like the manufacturers say, but recently I have taken the opinion that slip errors are impossible. You see NASA uses the same strings as us so they must work!?
The strings have built in tolerances and clever software which mean that NO SLIP ERROR WILL HAPPEN. I cant tell you what it does though to do this because it is a trademarked secret, and to be honest I dont know because I have no scientific knowledge whatsoever.
I can assure you though, each year we calibrate our strings in our test centre where we put the strings on tripods and point them towards flat, stationary objects at 20,40,60,80 and 100 metres away. This gives us approval for one of our trained users to hold one in his very steady hand, aim it at your moving, curved and faceted car without a tripod and still convict you at up to 1000 metres away!
Look, now stop asking questions its getting annoying. I know the reason why they were banned in America. Well if you were in court for the first time, you would be nervous and think that the back wall of the court was moving at 4mph too wouldnt you!?
Using the LTITSUP4040 strings on stationary objects might bring errors like that because moving cars are moving right so thats ok!?
What, you have now tested them on moving vehicles and got slip errors?
Thats because you were using the new American one, which is different to the UK version. The Americans send us the best ones you know.
Look I just know they are better, they have metres on instead of feet for a start...
Look I know I said that NASA used our strings, and I know the NASA strings are American, and that would make ... doh...
HELP!!!!!!
Note: Any similarity between Brown Strings and the LTI2020 is entirely uncoincidental and non-fictional and may include abridged statements from real people living (not dead) who are 'experts' in their field and may convict you with their evidence as you drive home this evening.
jasandjules said:
Red White or Blue string.........
As for Arrive Alive, ask them how catching x million motorists and fining them 14 days later prevented the accident that day, as they were clearly speeding, yet by some stroke of fortune didn't get involved in an RTA....
An interesting fact may come out of the new GPS technology. Whether the average speed of motorists affects whether their accident rates. My money is on it makes no difference whatsoever, apart from in fact it may be that the drivers with a higher average speed will be in less accidents?
Out of curiosity I calcuated the mean and standard deviation for the figures provided. I have plotted the mean in black, and then +/-2 SDs in green and yellow. 2 SDs is usually reckoned to include 68% (or thereabouts) of all points if the points are random. In this series we find that ALL points are within +/- 2 SDs. To me, this indicates that there is no statistical reason to believe that the figures are anything other than random.
Disclaimer -- I only studied stats at an elementary level. I would value other opinions.
Disclaimer -- I only studied stats at an elementary level. I would value other opinions.
I have followed the interesting posts on brown and blue strings. Clearly some readers do not understand how the strings work. The process used to be known as String Theory, but is now known as M-Theory.
In M-Theory, the myriad of particle types is replaced by a single fundamental building block, a `string'. These strings can be closed, like loops, or open, like a hair. As the string moves through time it traces out a tube or a sheet, according to whether it is closed or open. Furthermore, the string is free to vibrate, and different vibrational modes of the string represent the different particle types, since different modes are seen as different masses or spins.
The particles known in nature are classified according to their spin into bosons (integer spin) or fermions (odd half integer spin). The former are the ones that carry forces, for example, the photon, which carries electromagnetic force, the gluon, which carries the strong nuclear force, and the graviton, which carries gravitational force. The latter make up the matter we are made of, like the electron or the quark. The original String Theory only described particles that were bosons, hence Bosonic String Theory. It did not describe Fermions. So quarks and electrons, for instance, were not included in Bosonic String Theory.
By introducing Supersymmetry to Bosonic String Theory, we can obtain a new theory that describes both the forces and the matter which make up the Universe. This is the theory of superstrings. There are three different superstring theories which make sense, i.e. display no mathematical inconsistencies. In two of them the fundamental object is a closed string, while in the third, open strings are the building blocks. Furthermore, mixing the best features of the bosonic string and the superstring, we can create two other consistent theories of strings, Heterotic String Theories.
One of the most remarkable predictions of String Theory is that space-time has ten dimensions! At first sight, this may be seen as a reason to dismiss the theory altogether, as we obviously have only three dimensions of space and one of time. However, if we assume that six of these dimensions are curled up very tightly, then we may never be aware of their existence. Furthermore, having these so-called compact dimensions is very beneficial if String Theory is to describe a Theory of Everything. The idea is that degrees of freedom like the electric charge of an electron will then arise simply as motion in the extra compact directions! The principle that compact dimensions may lead to unifying theories is not new, but dates from the 1920's, since the theory of Kaluza and Klein. In a sense, String Theory is the ultimate Kaluza-Klein theory.
For simplicity, it is usually assumed that the extra dimensions are wrapped up on six circles. For realistic results they are treated as being wrapped up on mathematical elaborations known as Calabi-Yau Manifolds and Orbifolds.
I hope this makes it clear. BTW - the colour of the string is immaterial [scientific pun intended].
Streaky
In M-Theory, the myriad of particle types is replaced by a single fundamental building block, a `string'. These strings can be closed, like loops, or open, like a hair. As the string moves through time it traces out a tube or a sheet, according to whether it is closed or open. Furthermore, the string is free to vibrate, and different vibrational modes of the string represent the different particle types, since different modes are seen as different masses or spins.
The particles known in nature are classified according to their spin into bosons (integer spin) or fermions (odd half integer spin). The former are the ones that carry forces, for example, the photon, which carries electromagnetic force, the gluon, which carries the strong nuclear force, and the graviton, which carries gravitational force. The latter make up the matter we are made of, like the electron or the quark. The original String Theory only described particles that were bosons, hence Bosonic String Theory. It did not describe Fermions. So quarks and electrons, for instance, were not included in Bosonic String Theory.
By introducing Supersymmetry to Bosonic String Theory, we can obtain a new theory that describes both the forces and the matter which make up the Universe. This is the theory of superstrings. There are three different superstring theories which make sense, i.e. display no mathematical inconsistencies. In two of them the fundamental object is a closed string, while in the third, open strings are the building blocks. Furthermore, mixing the best features of the bosonic string and the superstring, we can create two other consistent theories of strings, Heterotic String Theories.
One of the most remarkable predictions of String Theory is that space-time has ten dimensions! At first sight, this may be seen as a reason to dismiss the theory altogether, as we obviously have only three dimensions of space and one of time. However, if we assume that six of these dimensions are curled up very tightly, then we may never be aware of their existence. Furthermore, having these so-called compact dimensions is very beneficial if String Theory is to describe a Theory of Everything. The idea is that degrees of freedom like the electric charge of an electron will then arise simply as motion in the extra compact directions! The principle that compact dimensions may lead to unifying theories is not new, but dates from the 1920's, since the theory of Kaluza and Klein. In a sense, String Theory is the ultimate Kaluza-Klein theory.
For simplicity, it is usually assumed that the extra dimensions are wrapped up on six circles. For realistic results they are treated as being wrapped up on mathematical elaborations known as Calabi-Yau Manifolds and Orbifolds.
I hope this makes it clear. BTW - the colour of the string is immaterial [scientific pun intended].
Streaky
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