RE: Biggest Road Death Reductions In Camera Free Zones

[Mr POD]

cuneus said:

This is cherry picking at it's worst

http://www.durham.gov.uk/durhamcc/usp.nsf/pws/Your...

for the full picture

Edited by cuneus on Monday 11th August 11:56

Indeed. We need to be seen to be using statistical analysis with the professionalism NOT shown by those in POWER.

Anyway. I've just put the Fatal and Serious figures into mini tab, and found that the mean is 224, std dev 43, but when you put it into a run chart, there is a big step down to year 4, and One step up at year 10.

If I do a 2 sample T test on the first 3 years (early) vs the rest(late) I get :

Two-Sample T-Test and CI: early, late

Two-sample T for early vs late

SE
N Mean StDev Mean
early 3 270.0 27.8 16
late 9 209.0 36.6 12


Difference = mu (early) - mu (late)
Estimate for difference: 61.0
95% CI for difference: (4.9, 117.1)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = 3.02 P-Value = 0.039 DF = 4


This tells me I am 95% confident that the difference is between 4.9 and 117.1 - although I would quote 61 as the difference.

However, If I FIDDLE with the data and decide that year 10 is special (ie not representative for some reason) I get a differnt answer.

Two-Sample T-Test and CI: early, late

Two-sample T for early vs late

N Mean StDev SE Mean
early 3 270.0 27.8 16
late 8 197.8 15.3 5.4


Difference = mu (early) - mu (late)
Estimate for difference: 72.3
95% CI for difference: (-0.7, 145.2)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = 4.26 P-Value = 0.051 DF = 2

This tells me that I am 95 % confident that the difference is between -0.7 and 145.2, but lets call it 72.3. BUT look at the Standard deviation. Much more stable ?

So How would I really want to assess this data ? 10 data points is too few. I'd rather have a monthly or quarterly data point.

What happened from year 1 to year 3 that caused such a big drop, why did year 10 jump.

Accidents are so complex, it is too easy (and I'd love to believe it) to say that the reason for the drop is lack of camera's.

For instance, lets present the hypothosis that the more police checks on for tread depth = less accidents. Is there a correlation ? Is the data even collected ?

What if the results are skewed by better road design ?

In conclusion. NOT enough data, but there is a trend. We need to know WHY ?

[Mr POD]

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

To all of those who are unable to moderate their speed with reference to the speedo, gearing and engine note, can you please do the following:

1. Tear up your license.

2. Apply for a retest.

3. If you somehow manage to apss your test, apply for an advanced test.

4. If you fail that, please please get a bus pass or train season ticket as I don't want numpties like you on the same roads that my family and I drive on.

Yes, I do speed.

Yes, I hate speed cameras.

But the argument that you have to watch your speedo to know your speed shows you up as the poorest of poor drivers IMHO.

Even if you are doing an indicated 35, that will more likely be 30-32 and below scamera tolerance.

Or are you those idiots who have no idea what the speed limit is in a given section an brake down to 30 regardless of the limit when you see a scamera?

Knowing the speed limit and your own speed is very basic roadcraft....

so what makes you so qualified my friend ?

Well STASH1 - I agree with bing o . My qualifications are 25 years on the road, and at least 500k miles both in UK, Europe and USA, 7 accidents (4 my fault), 3 points, 4 engine rebuilds, I've driven at an indicated 140 mph somewhere in Europe and I've been stopped by the police 14 times and asked to produce my documents twice, a moped test passed (1983), a 2 part motorcycle test passed (1984)and passed my driving licence at the second attempt(1984). Are those qualifications enough ?

[Bing o]

Mr POD said:

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

To all of those who are unable to moderate their speed with reference to the speedo, gearing and engine note, can you please do the following:

1. Tear up your license.

2. Apply for a retest.

3. If you somehow manage to apss your test, apply for an advanced test.

4. If you fail that, please please get a bus pass or train season ticket as I don't want numpties like you on the same roads that my family and I drive on.

Yes, I do speed.

Yes, I hate speed cameras.

But the argument that you have to watch your speedo to know your speed shows you up as the poorest of poor drivers IMHO.

Even if you are doing an indicated 35, that will more likely be 30-32 and below scamera tolerance.

Or are you those idiots who have no idea what the speed limit is in a given section an brake down to 30 regardless of the limit when you see a scamera?

Knowing the speed limit and your own speed is very basic roadcraft....

so what makes you so qualified my friend ?

Well STASH1 - I agree with bing o . My qualifications are 25 years on the road, and at least 500k miles both in UK, Europe and USA, 7 accidents (4 my fault), 3 points, 4 engine rebuilds, I've driven at an indicated 140 mph somewhere in Europe and I've been stopped by the police 14 times and asked to produce my documents twice, a moped test passed (1983), a 2 part motorcycle test passed (1984)and passed my driving licence at the second attempt(1984). Are those qualifications enough ?

Cheers POD, the only time I've had issues with watching my speedo is playing GT4 trying to guage cornering speed and apex points.....

[Mr POD]

Bing o said:

Mr POD said:

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

To all of those who are unable to moderate their speed with reference to the speedo, gearing and engine note, can you please do the following:

1. Tear up your license.

2. Apply for a retest.

3. If you somehow manage to apss your test, apply for an advanced test.

4. If you fail that, please please get a bus pass or train season ticket as I don't want numpties like you on the same roads that my family and I drive on.

Yes, I do speed.

Yes, I hate speed cameras.

But the argument that you have to watch your speedo to know your speed shows you up as the poorest of poor drivers IMHO.

Even if you are doing an indicated 35, that will more likely be 30-32 and below scamera tolerance.

Or are you those idiots who have no idea what the speed limit is in a given section an brake down to 30 regardless of the limit when you see a scamera?

Knowing the speed limit and your own speed is very basic roadcraft....

so what makes you so qualified my friend ?

Well STASH1 - I agree with bing o . My qualifications are 25 years on the road, and at least 500k miles both in UK, Europe and USA, 7 accidents (4 my fault), 3 points, 4 engine rebuilds, I've driven at an indicated 140 mph somewhere in Europe and I've been stopped by the police 14 times and asked to produce my documents twice, a moped test passed (1983), a 2 part motorcycle test passed (1984)and passed my driving licence at the second attempt(1984). Are those qualifications enough ?

Cheers POD, the only time I've had issues with watching my speedo is playing GT4 trying to guage cornering speed and apex points.....

Occasionally I have to 'REcalibrate' - say when I'm in a hire car, and look down and think "Wow I'm doing 150 (KPH), who'd have thought it"
So my senses know what the speed limit FEELS like.

[Bing o]

Mr POD said:

So How would I really want to assess this data ? 10 data points is too few. I'd rather have a monthly or quarterly data point.

What happened from year 1 to year 3 that caused such a big drop, why did year 10 jump.

Accidents are so complex, it is too easy (and I'd love to believe it) to say that the reason for the drop is lack of camera's.

For instance, lets present the hypothosis that the more police checks on for tread depth = less accidents. Is there a correlation ? Is the data even collected ?

What if the results are skewed by better road design ?

In conclusion. NOT enough data, but there is a trend. We need to know WHY ?

Indeed - I bet that the onset of an early cold snap or late cold snap (ie before/after New Year) could skew the results year on year. A cold snap in Feb 08 and another in Dec 08, followed by a milder 2009 could well result in higher casualties in 2008 the 2009.

The dataset is incomplete, and teh variables too complex.

Hence both sides cherry pick the data to suit their argument.

[vonhosen]

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

To all of those who are unable to moderate their speed with reference to the speedo, gearing and engine note, can you please do the following:

1. Tear up your license.

2. Apply for a retest.

3. If you somehow manage to apss your test, apply for an advanced test.

4. If you fail that, please please get a bus pass or train season ticket as I don't want numpties like you on the same roads that my family and I drive on.

Yes, I do speed.

Yes, I hate speed cameras.

But the argument that you have to watch your speedo to know your speed shows you up as the poorest of poor drivers IMHO.

Even if you are doing an indicated 35, that will more likely be 30-32 and below scamera tolerance.

Or are you those idiots who have no idea what the speed limit is in a given section an brake down to 30 regardless of the limit when you see a scamera?

Knowing the speed limit and your own speed is very basic roadcraft....

so what makes you so qualified my friend ?

It doesn't take an expert, it's the standard expected of any driver & you must have had to do it to pass your driving test. If you could do it in that stressful situation why is it so difficult after ?

[grahamw48]

Cameras, forests of signs, acres of road markings, all merely serve to distract from what we should be doing...concentrating on our driving, and that of those around us.

IMO a waste of public (OUR) money.

I do NOT need rumble strips and writing on the road to tell me that there is a clearly visible 30mph sign coming up.

I DO need to be looking out for vehicles appearing from junctions, cyclists swerving to avoid potholes, etc.

Fortunately I live in North Yorkshire where we are trusted to use our intelligence and basic powers of observation, rather than being penalised as a result of the behaviour of a tiny minority of idiots who will ignore traffic calming measures anyway.

Edited by grahamw48 on Thursday 14th August 10:25

[vonhosen]

grahamw48 said:

Cameras, forests of signs, acres of road markings, all merely serve to distract from what we should be doing...concentrating on our driving, and that of those around us.

IMO a waste of public (OUR) money.

I do NOT need rumble strips and writing on the road to tell me that there is a clearly visible 30mph sign coming up.

They add the extras because people take no notice of the 30 sign. If they did they wouldn't bother spending the money.

[whistlingbob]

Mr POD said:

...However, If I FIDDLE with the data and decide that year 10 is special (ie not representative for some reason) I get a differnt answer...

Yes you do...you get the answer you want!

NOTE FOR PEDANTS: Not you specifically of course

[STASH1]

Bing o said:

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

To all of those who are unable to moderate their speed with reference to the speedo, gearing and engine note, can you please do the following:

1. Tear up your license.

2. Apply for a retest.

3. If you somehow manage to apss your test, apply for an advanced test.

4. If you fail that, please please get a bus pass or train season ticket as I don't want numpties like you on the same roads that my family and I drive on.

Yes, I do speed.

Yes, I hate speed cameras.

But the argument that you have to watch your speedo to know your speed shows you up as the poorest of poor drivers IMHO.

Even if you are doing an indicated 35, that will more likely be 30-32 and below scamera tolerance.

Or are you those idiots who have no idea what the speed limit is in a given section an brake down to 30 regardless of the limit when you see a scamera?

Knowing the speed limit and your own speed is very basic roadcraft....

so what makes you so qualified my friend ?

I have a brain and don't lick windows for a living....

I bet that pedestal is making your arse ache.dont come on here and insult the intellect of the membership its not clever and not needed !

[Mr POD]

whistlingbob said:

Mr POD said:

...However, If I FIDDLE with the data and decide that year 10 is special (ie not representative for some reason) I get a differnt answer...

Yes you do...you get the answer you want!

NOTE FOR PEDANTS: Not you specifically of course

I always ask "does correlation prove causation ?"

[bobdylan]

i say this:
swop every speed camera in the country for one that does not flash for speed, but one that flashes for a dangerous DISTANCE to the vehicle in front (be really clever to make it weather Variable too)


and who here thinks that would cut deathes and make more sence ?

[grahamw48]

vonhosen said:

grahamw48 said:

Cameras, forests of signs, acres of road markings, all merely serve to distract from what we should be doing...concentrating on our driving, and that of those around us.

IMO a waste of public (OUR) money.

I do NOT need rumble strips and writing on the road to tell me that there is a clearly visible 30mph sign coming up.

They add the extras because people take no notice of the 30 sign. If they did they wouldn't bother spending the money.

Oh, and you think it works do you ?

Total waste of money...you'd need ribbed surfaces along every 30mph road in town then, if current behaviour is anything to go by, or perhaps the lawbreakers just need an eyesight test.

The fear of having your licence taken away for a month or two every 6 points would be more effective. A lot of drivers just don't care, because they have (as they see it) points to spare.

Added to that, a lot of speed limits are unnecessarily low, given the braking and handling of modern vehicles, and are therefore treated with contempt...maybe deservedly so.

[vonhosen]

grahamw48 said:

vonhosen said:

grahamw48 said:

Cameras, forests of signs, acres of road markings, all merely serve to distract from what we should be doing...concentrating on our driving, and that of those around us.

IMO a waste of public (OUR) money.

I do NOT need rumble strips and writing on the road to tell me that there is a clearly visible 30mph sign coming up.

They add the extras because people take no notice of the 30 sign. If they did they wouldn't bother spending the money.

Oh, and you think it works do you ?

Total waste of money...you'd need ribbed surfaces along every 30mph road in town then, if current behaviour is anything to go by, or perhaps the lawbreakers just need an eyesight test.

The fear of having your licence taken away for a month or two every 6 points would be more effective. A lot of drivers just don't care, because they have (as they see it) points to spare.

Added to that, a lot of speed limits are unnecessarily low, given the braking and handling of modern vehicles, and are therefore treated with contempt...maybe deservedly so.

No it doesn't always work, but that's when they place the trafpol there with a hairdryer & the 'they've got nothing better to do' line gets trotted out.

[grahamw48]

Well, as with all law breaking, the innocents shouldn't have anything to fear, or more to the point...those paying attention.

Having maintained a clean licence for thirty eight years doesn't mean that I haven't exceeded the speed limit or come across any speed traps.
Most of those years I've averaged over 700 miles a week.

I put it down to simple observation.

My brother-in-law (a traffic cop on the A1) has always maintained that motorists caught speeding, particularly by a following police car, should also be done for 'due care and attention'.

Again I will say, no amount of signs and pink tarmac will dissuade idiots from doing what comes naturally, only effective punishment.

In my book there are other offences which are potentially much more dangerous, such as entering a motorway off the slip road at 40 or 50mph and causing chaos amongst three lanes of approaching vehicles, driving without lights in fog or driving rain, etc.

Accidents tend not to happen on straight roads even if it is through a picturesque village, but at road junctions and bends, at night or in bad weather. Also close to schools...but the school-run parents obstructing those areas is another topic....hmmm

[Bing o]

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

To all of those who are unable to moderate their speed with reference to the speedo, gearing and engine note, can you please do the following:

1. Tear up your license.

2. Apply for a retest.

3. If you somehow manage to apss your test, apply for an advanced test.

4. If you fail that, please please get a bus pass or train season ticket as I don't want numpties like you on the same roads that my family and I drive on.

Yes, I do speed.

Yes, I hate speed cameras.

But the argument that you have to watch your speedo to know your speed shows you up as the poorest of poor drivers IMHO.

Even if you are doing an indicated 35, that will more likely be 30-32 and below scamera tolerance.

Or are you those idiots who have no idea what the speed limit is in a given section an brake down to 30 regardless of the limit when you see a scamera?

Knowing the speed limit and your own speed is very basic roadcraft....

so what makes you so qualified my friend ?

I have a brain and don't lick windows for a living....

I bet that pedestal is making your arse ache.dont come on here and insult the intellect of the membership its not clever and not needed !

I'm only insulting the intellect of those that don't have any.

I must have missed the bit where I paid my membership....



Clown.

[WildCat]

Mr POD said:

STASH1 said:

Bing o said:

To all of those who are unable to moderate their speed with reference to the speedo, gearing and engine note, can you please do the following:

1. Tear up your license.

2. Apply for a retest.

3. If you somehow manage to apss your test, apply for an advanced test.

4. If you fail that, please please get a bus pass or train season ticket as I don't want numpties like you on the same roads that my family and I drive on.

Yes, I do speed.

Yes, I hate speed cameras.

But the argument that you have to watch your speedo to know your speed shows you up as the poorest of poor drivers IMHO.

Even if you are doing an indicated 35, that will more likely be 30-32 and below scamera tolerance.

Or are you those idiots who have no idea what the speed limit is in a given section an brake down to 30 regardless of the limit when you see a scamera?

Knowing the speed limit and your own speed is very basic roadcraft....

so what makes you so qualified my friend ?

Well STASH1 - I agree with bing o . My qualifications are 25 years on the road, and at least 500k miles both in UK, Europe and USA,

So you have driven a lot of miles. SO have most other people.. but that does not stop them behaving like a Pavlov dog und hitting the brakes when they see a scamera .. or screeching to a dead stop when they see horse boxes und any van

MrPOD said:

7 accidents (4 my fault), 3 points, 4 engine rebuilds,

DO not really mean you are that good. Perhaps you should think about taking a COAST course Liebchen

Mr POD said:

I've driven at an indicated 140 mph somewhere in Europe

Driven so similarly in Germany ..und a bit faster on a track day nananana!

Mr POD said:

and I've been stopped by the police 14 times and asked to produce my documents twice, a moped test passed (1983), a 2 part motorcycle test passed (1984)and passed my driving licence at the second attempt(1984). Are those qualifications enough ?

I have never been stopped by the police for a traffic offence. I have stopped policemen .. to ask them for directions though
Some have told me to ask a postman.. or a fireman ... because they know where they going ..

(Been followed by the police .. but that was in Russia und GDR .. some years ago.. as student... )

I have a licence to ride a nice powerful motorbike.. like my driving licence - originally passed in Germany.. und I also have British IAM/RoSPA .. I pass all my tests first time .. und after the accident - which was not my fault.. but quite a nasty experience.. . I made sure those skills were still up to honed und toned standards ...In fact my cousin BiB trained me up to the standard he would expect from a fellow "honorararryryrr Black Rat"

Now I think my qualifications are quite OK NanananaanaAH! .. but I still check my speedo on cursory glances und each time I see a scam just so that I am 100% sure that the speed ist legal ... It would be foolish to do otherwise und rely on it being set to guidelines if 3 mph above... but that might be my Swiss upbringing

[Bing o]

My god.

If only we could all be as perfect as you.....

[peter pan]

Kettle calling pot black! perhaps???

[Mr POD]

Mr POD said:

My qualifications are 25 years on the road,

You are a different person at 16 than 41 ? I am.

Mr POD said:

and at least 500k miles both in UK, Europe and USA,

I know I've seen (and done) most stupid things

Mr POD said:

7 accidents (4 my fault)

the 4 that were my fault. Aged 19, 20 on a motorbike at stupid speeds in an inappropriate setting, like 30 mph on sheet ice.

Aged 35, 37, conplacency in the extreme in both very agressive and ambitious incidents.

Mr POD said:

, 3 points,

41 in a 30 - recently on a main road keeping up with traffic flow.

Mr POD said:

4 engine rebuilds,

125 Motorbike, 350 Motorbike (at speed), Polo ignoring the flashing warning light, and a mk2 cavalier somewhere close to the redline about 2 years ago.

Mr POD said:

I've driven at an indicated 140 mph somewhere in Europe

Could have been north wales, but I think it was near stuttgart.

Mr POD said:

and I've been stopped by the police 14 times and asked to produce my documents twice,

These make an interesting after dinner speech, but lets say that getting your knee down on a RD 350 LC on the Birmingham Inner Ring Road and NOT getting points is an achievement.

Mr POD said:

a moped test passed (1983), a 2 part motorcycle test passed (1984)and passed my driving licence at the second attempt(1984). Are those qualifications enough ?

I've seen it, done it, tried it, broken it, paid my fines, claimed for it, so YES I think I'm qualified enough to hold an oppinion.