Who is bogging off after the YES vote?

[KaiserDahms]

GoneAnon said:

All great examples of major-league fk-ups by Westminster-based parties.

Edinburgh Trams - Labour and Lib Dems gave these the go-ahead, then they, along with Edinburgh Council, lost control of the project and the budget (shades of Holyrood?) The SNP came to power as a minority government and tried to cancel the trams to save £1.1bn, but the unionist parties forced the single line through. The SNP took control of the project and they are nearly in service now.
Trams to Glasgow Airport - what's wrong with looking at a way to get people to/from aiport/city centre? Especially when it is projected to cost less than half the Labour/Liberal GARL scheme?
George Square - Labour city council project.

Of course, you could also have mentioned the Scottish Parliament building - Westminster Labour picked a site and an architect and awarded contracts without a design, then got surprised when the prices went up every time they made a change. But it was the Scottish block grant that had to pay for it so that's OK then.

you seem to have missed the point I have made, these decisions were made in scotland, not from westminster. Do you honestly believe that David Cameron was involved in the decision of george sq? Do you think Glasgow will stop voting labour after independence? it will still be the same people in the same positions.

[Dryce]

stevoknevo said:

However if the oil companies are paying £12bn per annum in taxation then it must be worth their while?

There have been quite large tax swings in the oil sector as prices shift.

So £12 billion? I'm guessing that it was either a rounding up of the 2011/2012 figures or it's the 2008/2009 numbers. What about other years? Well in 2009/2010 it was less that £6 billion.

And how does that £12 billion possibly break down. Well AIUI around just over half is specific to the oil and gas industry. The rest is corporation tax.

Will the corporation tax be collected in the UK or in Scotland? If it's not then a 'bad' year like 2009/2010 Scotland might get £3 billion and in a 'good' year £6billion. And in a really bad year if energy prices drop?

How much tax might Scotland expect to collect from everything? Well the UK is expecting £600 billion in taxes this year. So if Scotland had an equivalent GDP it might work off £54 billion. Of course the UK £600 billion will also assume additional borrowings because of the deficit. Scotland might need these too.

So if oil and gas actually delivers that £12 billion that's over 20% of net tax revenues. Good stuff. The North Sea is wonderful. Except next year it might be down to say £6billion again. That's 10% of your tax revenues gone poof - just like that. That's not goimg to be fun.

Whereas in the past in the UK that would be nearer 1% going poof! That's bearable. Moreover the UK has its pound and triple A rating to deal with a bit of smoothing as regards raising finance to cover the problem with additional debt. Scotland? OTOH that very exposure to revenue variation would make it more expensive for Scotland to raise that money (moreover it would be in a foreign controlled currency) exactly when it most needed it.

[hidetheelephants]

KaiserDahms said:

The snp say that scotland could run things better themselves, look at the bloody trams in edinburgh, now they're wanting trams going to glasgow airport now. Look at how they wasted money on redesigning george square only to keep it the exact same. These people will still be in those jobs after independence so what difference does it make??

The trams project was started by a Labour administration in Edinburgh City Council; the minority SNP government wanted to cancel it all when they were elected in 2007 but were outvoted. The ongoing George Square fiasco is a Labour beano too, as a majority of Glasgow folk would vote for a tub of lard if it had a red rosette on. The SNP have been responsible for many fk-ups, but these aren't among them; if you want an SNP fk-up, check out what's been going on in Argyll and Bute council over the last 2 years.

A.J.M said:

The proposal put forward include ideas that have already been shown to be illegal, ( student fees, favoring Clyde ship building ), almost impossible to happen. ( EU membership in the stated time ) and strange. IE, how to spend more, tax less, but build an oil fund when an unknown deficit gets down to 3%, even though said fund is volatile to price movement's, a finite resource.

I've seen this advanced as an argument a few times, but it seems logically flawed; on the one hand you're arguing that some proposals concerning fees and shipbuilding or whatever will be illegal under EU law, but at the same time presenting the argument that the EU won't accept Scotland as a member. Please elucidate.

As for Scotland being independent but keeping Sterling or adopting the Euro; both are even less attractive than adopting the Groat. I'm quite partial to the idea of petitioning the US for becoming the 51st state, but that seems as unlikely as most of the other strawmen set up in this thread.

Dryce said:

One of the odd ironies of making that planning public is that some of the negative stuff may actually antagonise some no voters to become yes voters. There were signs of that when the main Westminster parties declared the currency situation. Somewhat ironic.

More than somewhat; the amusing thing is that the westminster bubbleheads to man can't recognise this.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Sunday 13th April 05:01

[mad4amanda]

Robert Burns said:

I think this might be a time to stop this thread. Before its locked

Its getting silly now, fellow scots having a go at each other for really childish stuff.

Its independance, you have a right to which answer you vote for. It then doesn't give you the right to tell someone in basic term to "fk off if you don't like it"

surely this is how it was always in history?

[Pooh]

ViperPict said:

The childish idiocy is the petulant 'well I'm leaving' attitude in the event of the vote not going the way you want. Like, before you have any clue what an independent Scotland will actually be like! It is an insane and childish attitude. If there is a no vote then I'll take it on the chin and get on with life. In my home country.

My decision to leave is not based on the attitude you describe, everything I have read and the generally idiotic decisions made by the Scottish Government have convinced me that Independence will be a disaster. I have four children, I have to consider the future of my family and I believe that it will probably be better if we leave rather than remain here.

ViperPict said:

Please also note that you cannot just choose a country to go and live in.

I have over 25 years experience in the oil industry, I could walk in to Canada, Australia and many other countries with no difficulty. I have a work visa for the U.S., spent two months working there last year and as I said my company will be opening up a base there soon so that could be another option. If all else fails, there are some nice places in England and my company has an office in Bournemouth.

[Humper]

Most importantly this part of PH would have to be moved as we would no longer be a region of England..

[ViperPict]

Dryce said:

ViperPict said:

The reason many uncertainties remain is the refusal of Westimster (unreasonably) to discuss the entirely possible event of a yes vote.

It's not really Westminster's responsibility.

But the way Westminster is acting goes way beyond that. They have clearly adopted a policy of obfuscation. Deliberately keeping information from the electorate. As I said, the referendum should not be run like a general election. We are dealing with issues way beyond time scales where any economic forecasting is relevant. Independence is not about the next <5 years.

[ViperPict]

Pooh said:

ViperPict said:

The childish idiocy is the petulant 'well I'm leaving' attitude in the event of the vote not going the way you want. Like, before you have any clue what an independent Scotland will actually be like! It is an insane and childish attitude. If there is a no vote then I'll take it on the chin and get on with life. In my home country.

My decision to leave is not based on the attitude you describe, everything I have read and the generally idiotic decisions made by the Scottish Government have convinced me that Independence will be a disaster. I have four children, I have to consider the future of my family and I believe that it will probably be better if we leave rather than remain here.

ViperPict said:

Please also note that you cannot just choose a country to go and live in.

You still do not have enough information on an independent Scotland to make such a decision objectively. It is a knee jerk reaction to some degree. I have a young child and I pray for independence so he will have a better country to grow up in. And that is not just about £££s as it seems to boil down to for most in the oil industry. I read a quote somewhere recently (and I paraphrase here) that the no vote is largely supported by those who want to maintain their privileged standard of life. Quite understandably but the majority of people in Scotland are not nearly as privileged. I can understand most oil industry people thinking along the lines of 'if it's not broken, don't fix it' or 'we have it good now, let's not risk that with change'. But the independence debate is about SO much more than that.

Edited by ViperPict on Sunday 13th April 08:37

[Pooh]

ViperPict said:

Pooh said:

ViperPict said:

The childish idiocy is the petulant 'well I'm leaving' attitude in the event of the vote not going the way you want. Like, before you have any clue what an independent Scotland will actually be like! It is an insane and childish attitude. If there is a no vote then I'll take it on the chin and get on with life. In my home country.

My decision to leave is not based on the attitude you describe, everything I have read and the generally idiotic decisions made by the Scottish Government have convinced me that Independence will be a disaster. I have four children, I have to consider the future of my family and I believe that it will probably be better if we leave rather than remain here.

ViperPict said:

Please also note that you cannot just choose a country to go and live in.

You still do not have enough information on an independent Scotland to make such a decision objectively. It is a knee jerk reaction to some degree. I have a young child and I pray for independence so he will have a better country to grow up in. And that is not just about £££s as it seems to boil down to for most in the oil industry. I read a quote somewhere recently (and I paraphrase here) that the no vote is largely supported by those who want to maintain their privileged standard of life. Quite understandably but the majority of people in Scotland are not nearly as privileged. I can understand most oil industry people thinking along the lines of 'if it's not broken, don't fix it' or 'we have it good now, let's not risk that with change'. But the independence debate is about SO much more than that.

Edited by ViperPict on Sunday 13th April 08:37

You don't have enough information to make an objective decision in favour of independence so it all comes down to personal perception.

It is not about money for me, I also want my children to grow up in a better country and I do not think that an independent Scotland will be better than it is now or than some of the other options that I have.

[SirChris]

The right to vote means that it will go how it goes. If independence is wanted, then let the vote begin! If people want independance give it to them. I think it would be worse when the people then just end up hating their 'captors'. A terrible word to use, but I can imagine that those people may feel that way. I don't know why people get rather upset about it all. Democracy and all of that. Life's st. Embrace it.

Edited by SirChris on Sunday 13th April 09:07

[ViperPict]

Pooh said:

ViperPict said:

Pooh said:

ViperPict said:

The childish idiocy is the petulant 'well I'm leaving' attitude in the event of the vote not going the way you want. Like, before you have any clue what an independent Scotland will actually be like! It is an insane and childish attitude. If there is a no vote then I'll take it on the chin and get on with life. In my home country.

My decision to leave is not based on the attitude you describe, everything I have read and the generally idiotic decisions made by the Scottish Government have convinced me that Independence will be a disaster. I have four children, I have to consider the future of my family and I believe that it will probably be better if we leave rather than remain here.

ViperPict said:

Please also note that you cannot just choose a country to go and live in.

You still do not have enough information on an independent Scotland to make such a decision objectively. It is a knee jerk reaction to some degree. I have a young child and I pray for independence so he will have a better country to grow up in. And that is not just about £££s as it seems to boil down to for most in the oil industry. I read a quote somewhere recently (and I paraphrase here) that the no vote is largely supported by those who want to maintain their privileged standard of life. Quite understandably but the majority of people in Scotland are not nearly as privileged. I can understand most oil industry people thinking along the lines of 'if it's not broken, don't fix it' or 'we have it good now, let's not risk that with change'. But the independence debate is about SO much more than that.

Edited by ViperPict on Sunday 13th April 08:37

You don't have enough information to make an objective decision in favour of independence so it all comes down to personal perception.

It is not about money for me, I also want my children to grow up in a better country and I do not think that an independent Scotland will be better than it is now or than some of the other options that I have.

I am not the one saying I will leave if the vote does not the way I want, BEFORE you have had any chance to observe the post-referendum negotiations! This goes for economic and social issues. There can be no doubt, though, that our democratic situation will improve.

And the countries that you may leave to are better than the UK now - will you be leaving in the event of a no vote too?

[Pooh]

SirChris said:

The right to vote means that it will go how it goes. If independence is wanted, then let the vote begin! If people want independance give it to them. I think it would be worse when the people then just end up hating their 'captors'. A terrible word to use, but I can imagine that those people may feel that way. I don't know why people get rather upset about it all. Democracy and all of that. Life's st. Embrace it.

Edited by SirChris on Sunday 13th April 09:07

I kind of get your point, if the people of Scotland want to turn their country into a small, socialist country on the fringes of the E.U. then that is their choice but I also have the choice as to whether or not I want to stay and be part of it.
The whole thing makes me very sad and I think that whatever the outcome of the referendum there will be long term damage to the relationship between England and Scotland.

[ViperPict]

SirChris said:

The right to vote means that it will go how it goes. If independence is wanted, then let the vote begin! If people want independance give it to them. I think it would be worse when the people then just end up hating their 'captors'. A terrible word to use, but I can imagine that those people may feel that way. I don't know why people get rather upset about it all. Democracy and all of that. Life's st. Embrace it.

Edited by SirChris on Sunday 13th April 09:07

Exactly! Whatever the result, take it on the chin and get on with things. No toys out of the pram behaviour.

[ViperPict]

Pooh said:

SirChris said:

The right to vote means that it will go how it goes. If independence is wanted, then let the vote begin! If people want independance give it to them. I think it would be worse when the people then just end up hating their 'captors'. A terrible word to use, but I can imagine that those people may feel that way. I don't know why people get rather upset about it all. Democracy and all of that. Life's st. Embrace it.

Edited by SirChris on Sunday 13th April 09:07

I kind of get your point, if the people of Scotland want to turn their country into a small, socialist country on the fringes of the E.U. then that is their choice but I also have the choice as to whether or not I want to stay and be part of it.
The whole thing makes me very sad and I think that whatever the outcome of the referendum there will be long term damage to the relationship between England and Scotland.

I think Scotland and the rest of the UK will, certainly in the longer term, have a much better relationship after independence. A no vote will not be a good outcome for this though.

[Pooh]

ViperPict said:

will you be leaving in the event of a no vote too?

Possibly but it is less likely.

[ViperPict]

Pooh said:

ViperPict said:

will you be leaving in the event of a no vote too?

Possibly but it is less likely.

Worth considering either way. I have not ruled out a return to California at some stage, unrelated to referendum issues.

[GoneAnon]

The oil companies reacted with fury when Westminster governments of both flavours made changes to their taxes and allowances, highlighting their need for stability in these areas.

George Osborne continues to make changes to the regime but lines up his pals to say the UK - even with these troublesome changes - present a better option that an independent Scotland where the oil companies will be much bigger fish in a small pond and would, I'd speculate, enjoy more stability from a Scottish government.

I don't see the logic or consistency here.

Also, the mainstream media gave LOTS of coverage to the BP heidbummer who said he'd prefer Scotland to stay in the UK, but they made hardly any mention of the BP UK boss who said just this week that independence would make little or no operational difference to the firm. Why do you think that would be?

[GoneAnon]

http://wingsoverscotland.com/on-our-own-two-feet/

This is an interesting article written by someone who was a senior civil servant at the Treasury for years and who, from the 1960s, realised that we were being "protected" from the truth.

He's seen the books and completed the analysis and - most importantly - he doesn't stand to gain anything from lying about the findings.

[A.J.M]

hidetheelephants said:

A.J.M said:

The proposal put forward include ideas that have already been shown to be illegal, ( student fees, favoring Clyde ship building ), almost impossible to happen. ( EU membership in the stated time ) and strange. IE, how to spend more, tax less, but build an oil fund when an unknown deficit gets down to 3%, even though said fund is volatile to price movement's, a finite resource.

I've seen this advanced as an argument a few times, but it seems logically flawed; on the one hand you're arguing that some proposals concerning fees and shipbuilding or whatever will be illegal under EU law, but at the same time presenting the argument that the EU won't accept Scotland as a member. Please elucidate.

As for Scotland being independent but keeping Sterling or adopting the Euro; both are even less attractive than adopting the Groat. I'm quite partial to the idea of petitioning the US for becoming the 51st state, but that seems as unlikely as most of the other strawmen set up in this thread.

Edited by hidetheelephants on Sunday 13th April 05:01

The time frame for Scotland to become an EU member is by 26th March 2016.
This position has been claimed will be fast tracked, aided by the UK. Such info under the FOI act was shown to be a lie and never existed. The EU President has stated on record that it will be " virtually impossible" for all 28 countries currently in the EU to agree in such a time frame. Some of those countries currently state the position that they will vote NO to letting Scotland in. Unless all 28 say YES, you don't get in. Simple as that.

So, If Scotland leaves the UK, it also leaves the EU, and will have to apply and join in the old long drawn out way. Which will take several years.

During that time, the UK has no obligation to favoritise Scotland for ship building, a position it currently does. Claims from Yes group that it will continue ignore that doing so will break EU law. Same with making uni fees free for EU people, but charge UK for uni courses.

These are some of the holes in the flawed Yes data. The cost of decommisioning the North sea being another, the lack of pensions data, who will cover the 1.8 billion cost of the renewables subsidies if Scotland leaves the UK.

There are 1000s of questions and the answers of " Trust us, it will be fine" don't wash with me.

It was Sturgion who claimed Scotland could have an oil fund, when the Deficit goes down to 3%.
So how can you make savings when your still trying to pay of the credit card, while also working less and spending more...

Madness. Utter madness.

You are more than welcome to join the Canadian Curry nights however, some of us will have V8s!

[Patrick Bateman]

Everything to gain and nothing to lose when there isn't even a fking plan B should there be no currency union?!

Right.