Oil price and NE property market
Discussion
I'm not so sure the oil price will affect the housing market for a while yet, as some companies struggle, others will flourish as decommissioning and other work progresses. Of the people I've spoken to its a very mixed bag of good/bad news.
The only thing I've noticed is since the UK govt (and soon Scottish govt) increased stamp duty on the more expensive properties on the 4th December up to 12%, there have only been maybe 2/3 homes in Aberdeen at 1m+ have sold. Not much has moved even since the run up to the referendum and now I suspect people looking at buying anything top end of the market in Scotland would only be wise to wait until April in case the Scottish govt reduce their claimed % plans for the land tax again. Buyers in the middle price range of the market should definitely get a shift on and buy before April or they will get hammered by Scotland's proposed tax plans. Potentially painful time to be buying/selling at the middle/top end of the market, there should be more moving at the lower end though.
The only thing I've noticed is since the UK govt (and soon Scottish govt) increased stamp duty on the more expensive properties on the 4th December up to 12%, there have only been maybe 2/3 homes in Aberdeen at 1m+ have sold. Not much has moved even since the run up to the referendum and now I suspect people looking at buying anything top end of the market in Scotland would only be wise to wait until April in case the Scottish govt reduce their claimed % plans for the land tax again. Buyers in the middle price range of the market should definitely get a shift on and buy before April or they will get hammered by Scotland's proposed tax plans. Potentially painful time to be buying/selling at the middle/top end of the market, there should be more moving at the lower end though.
Hollowpockets said:
I'm not so sure the oil price will affect the housing market for a while yet, as some companies struggle, others will flourish as decommissioning and other work progresses. Of the people I've spoken to its a very mixed bag of good/bad news.
The only thing I've noticed is since the UK govt (and soon Scottish govt) increased stamp duty on the more expensive properties on the 4th December up to 12%, there have only been maybe 2/3 homes in Aberdeen at 1m+ have sold. Not much has moved even since the run up to the referendum and now I suspect people looking at buying anything top end of the market in Scotland would only be wise to wait until April in case the Scottish govt reduce their claimed % plans for the land tax again. Buyers in the middle price range of the market should definitely get a shift on and buy before April or they will get hammered by Scotland's proposed tax plans. Potentially painful time to be buying/selling at the middle/top end of the market, there should be more moving at the lower end though.
At what house values do you consider middle and top ends? If the house you are buying/ selling is not much above the £250k mark, there should be little impact I thought. Presumably houses under the cut-off value will start to become more attractive after the new plans comes in (thereby raising their value - a negative feedback?).The only thing I've noticed is since the UK govt (and soon Scottish govt) increased stamp duty on the more expensive properties on the 4th December up to 12%, there have only been maybe 2/3 homes in Aberdeen at 1m+ have sold. Not much has moved even since the run up to the referendum and now I suspect people looking at buying anything top end of the market in Scotland would only be wise to wait until April in case the Scottish govt reduce their claimed % plans for the land tax again. Buyers in the middle price range of the market should definitely get a shift on and buy before April or they will get hammered by Scotland's proposed tax plans. Potentially painful time to be buying/selling at the middle/top end of the market, there should be more moving at the lower end though.
Middle being 4-600k. Stamp duty will double on these 'family sized' homes in Aberdeen.
Yes I agree the lower end of the market will be fine and homes will change hands no issues, I don't think values will rise much if the middle/top of the market don't increase. The whole thing will stall for a few years or until the government re-think the proposed system.
Only my opinion of course.
Yes I agree the lower end of the market will be fine and homes will change hands no issues, I don't think values will rise much if the middle/top of the market don't increase. The whole thing will stall for a few years or until the government re-think the proposed system.
Only my opinion of course.
Edited by Hollowpockets on Thursday 22 January 11:50
Hollowpockets said:
Middle being 4-600k. Stamp duty will double on these 'family sized' homes in Aberdeen.
Yes I agree the lower end of the market will be fine and homes will change hands no issues, I don't think values will rise much if the middle/top of the market don't increase. The whole thing will stall for a few years or until the government re-think the proposed system.
Only my opinion of course.
I would only add that considering middle house prices in the range £400-600k is very much an Aberdeen/ Aberdeenshire situation. The government need to make policy based on the entire country.Yes I agree the lower end of the market will be fine and homes will change hands no issues, I don't think values will rise much if the middle/top of the market don't increase. The whole thing will stall for a few years or until the government re-think the proposed system.
Only my opinion of course.
Edited by Hollowpockets on Thursday 22 January 11:50
Humper said:
Must be an Aberdeen thing, 600k middle of the market? Certainly not in the West, house round from me was on at 825k, it was really f
king expensive for round here. ( and I think it actually sold for considerably less.)
There are exceptions but in many areas 3/4 bedroom family homes (even those that look like council houses) can range from 360-650k.king expensive for round here. ( and I think it actually sold for considerably less.)4/5 bedroom terraced house in the west end can easily be 700-900k.
Hence so many commuter towns are growing fast, knock 1-200k off the above for a 20 mile commute.
Hollowpockets said:
ViperPict said:
I would only add that considering middle house prices in the range £400-600k is very much an Aberdeen/ Aberdeenshire situation. The government need to make policy based on the entire country.
Well you did start a thread titled directly at North East (Aberdeen) 
Hollowpockets said:
ViperPict said:
But the conversation turned to the issue of stamp duty, which is obviously a national policy. But even in the NE (i.e. not just Aberdeen city and its immediate environs), £400-600k is an expensive hoose.
Expensive but still middle of the market as it stands here.At the moment the granite built city centre houses seem to be moving at a decent pace. The days of 20% over asking are gone for sure but two decent houses (£600k bracket) have just sold for 10% over valuation in the last week.
The Stamp Duty rise is also meaning there's a lot of incentive for people thinking of a move to get their house on the market and another one bought so it's expected that the next week or two will see some £600k + homes come on. Today there were two reasonably significant houses arrive on the market in Cults and Rubislaw Den; £900k and £1.4m respectively. I would expect the latter to be sold in 14 days because the buyer is saving £60k for making a speedy decision. I'll keep an eye on what it goes for, if anything, over asking/valuation.
The Stamp Duty rise is also meaning there's a lot of incentive for people thinking of a move to get their house on the market and another one bought so it's expected that the next week or two will see some £600k + homes come on. Today there were two reasonably significant houses arrive on the market in Cults and Rubislaw Den; £900k and £1.4m respectively. I would expect the latter to be sold in 14 days because the buyer is saving £60k for making a speedy decision. I'll keep an eye on what it goes for, if anything, over asking/valuation.
rossub said:
Takes a while - nobody wants to be first to drop their price. Only once reduced demand is obvious will prices drift down. Same as 2008/09.
Prices didn't really budge in Aberdeen in 08/09, there were just fewer sales for a while. People just didn't put their houses up on the market.SrMoreno said:
Prices didn't really budge in Aberdeen in 08/09, there were just fewer sales for a while. People just didn't put their houses up on the market.
Were you buying/selling at that time?We bought our 4 bedroom house in early 2009 for £10k less than the 3 bed house next door sold for in 2007. No difference in age or spec of the houses.
Prices of flats dropped about 15-20%. I know 3 people that sold flats at that time and had losses of £10-25k.
ASPC graph shows Aberdeen had the same drop as everywhere else over that period.
https://www.aspc.co.uk/media/19919/third-quarter.p...
rossub said:
Were you buying/selling at that time?
We bought our 4 bedroom house in early 2009 for £10k less than the 3 bed house next door sold for in 2007. No difference in age or spec of the houses.
Prices of flats dropped about 15-20%. I know 3 people that sold flats at that time and had losses of £10-25k.
ASPC graph shows Aberdeen had the same drop as everywhere else over that period.
https://www.aspc.co.uk/media/19919/third-quarter.p...
I was, and it was very difficult to find somewhere to buy! Houses just weren't going on the market. The volume of sales graph on your link seems to show that. I also suspect it's very dependent on location. It's a long time since houses in the west end dropped in price, for example, but I know the difficulty house builders were having back then.We bought our 4 bedroom house in early 2009 for £10k less than the 3 bed house next door sold for in 2007. No difference in age or spec of the houses.
Prices of flats dropped about 15-20%. I know 3 people that sold flats at that time and had losses of £10-25k.
ASPC graph shows Aberdeen had the same drop as everywhere else over that period.
https://www.aspc.co.uk/media/19919/third-quarter.p...
Gassing Station | Scotland | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff