Voted Leave: D+1 - whats the Economic Plan
Discussion
Assuming a popular 'Leave' win, whats the economic plan the next morning given FTSE and £ will be potentially practising skydiving?
Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
kers make some extra profit off the whole thing.Look at the markets right now. The FTSE has dropped less than any other market. That doesn't suggest that we'll be immune, but it does suggest that there's an element of Brexit priced in.
What will happen is that there will be a big drop on the 24th, but then most of that will recover reasonably fast when everyone stops screaming and realises that nothing has really changed since the day before.
What will happen is that there will be a big drop on the 24th, but then most of that will recover reasonably fast when everyone stops screaming and realises that nothing has really changed since the day before.
Day 1 - the market reacts as a bunch of scared children always do, run away
Days 2-5 - gradually more and more of the children go "wait, what am I actually running from?" and wander back
Days 6-exit date - the market wanders up and down much the same as VW shares have done since their emissions scandal with good news and bad about how exit negotiations are progressing
Much the same as the IndyRef up here, a vote for the change doesn't mean the change happens that day, the next day or even the next week.
Days 2-5 - gradually more and more of the children go "wait, what am I actually running from?" and wander back
Days 6-exit date - the market wanders up and down much the same as VW shares have done since their emissions scandal with good news and bad about how exit negotiations are progressing
Much the same as the IndyRef up here, a vote for the change doesn't mean the change happens that day, the next day or even the next week.
emicen said:
Day 1 - the market reacts as a bunch of scared children always do, run away
Days 2-5 - gradually more and more of the children go "wait, what am I actually running from?" and wander back
Days 6-exit date - the market wanders up and down much the same as VW shares have done since their emissions scandal with good news and bad about how exit negotiations are progressing
Much the same as the IndyRef up here, a vote for the change doesn't mean the change happens that day, the next day or even the next week.
But, a vote leave is a step change in economic policy - in the same way ERM exit was. I am also wary it links into how the market views the UK Gilt market - Government IOU'S - currently trading on record lows. Will we have to raise rates to attract investors to them? This would fly in the face of quant easing which took bonds out the market if I remember correctly. Days 2-5 - gradually more and more of the children go "wait, what am I actually running from?" and wander back
Days 6-exit date - the market wanders up and down much the same as VW shares have done since their emissions scandal with good news and bad about how exit negotiations are progressing
Much the same as the IndyRef up here, a vote for the change doesn't mean the change happens that day, the next day or even the next week.
RobDickinson said:
emicen said:
Day 1 - the market reacts as a bunch of scared children always do, run away
Exaggerated by sharks making a killing...It's algos that force exaggerated market moves, not City W*nkers etc. Average execution on LSE 13 years ago 60k, today circa 5k. Let's not let facts get in the way of a sensible debate.
As for pricing in Brexit, only starting in earnest now. Seen some vol, but don't think anyone could be believe the collective stupidity of the U.K. electorate if this pans out per the opinions polls (hopefully wrong).
Leave campaign is a total sham, lost all credibility denouncing independent economic advice (the IMF are Cameron's lackeys? Tell that to Merkel when they were sticking one in her eye on Greece 3 weeks ago).
Hopefully this opinion poll (that's the referendum) is ignored, and we get back to normality. Anyone predicting the economic effects of this in days is an idiot of the highest order. We are looking at the medium to long term value destruction of companies - and an absence of a sensible plan (I'd love someone to tell me that post Brexit politics will be orderly but can't see that happening - ever. We could never capitilise on the opportunity of a Brexit - it was a question that should never been asked of the masses).
As for pricing in Brexit, only starting in earnest now. Seen some vol, but don't think anyone could be believe the collective stupidity of the U.K. electorate if this pans out per the opinions polls (hopefully wrong).
Leave campaign is a total sham, lost all credibility denouncing independent economic advice (the IMF are Cameron's lackeys? Tell that to Merkel when they were sticking one in her eye on Greece 3 weeks ago).
Hopefully this opinion poll (that's the referendum) is ignored, and we get back to normality. Anyone predicting the economic effects of this in days is an idiot of the highest order. We are looking at the medium to long term value destruction of companies - and an absence of a sensible plan (I'd love someone to tell me that post Brexit politics will be orderly but can't see that happening - ever. We could never capitilise on the opportunity of a Brexit - it was a question that should never been asked of the masses).
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 14th June 07:52
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 14th June 07:53
kurt535 said:
Assuming a popular 'Leave' win, whats the economic plan the next morning given FTSE and £ will be potentially practising skydiving?
Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
IME of threads on here, Leavers have no plan and take perverse pride in that. They regard it as someone else's job to sort out the mess. Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
Although they will assure you that (a) nothing will change, (b) everything will get better; (c) the appallingly corrupt EU will become our number 1 trusted trading partner; (d) Cameron will have to resign. Reconccile all four of those statements and you've unlocked the keys to the Leave hive mind.
Personally? I think the uncertainty of what happens next and in what period will hurt sterling, knock our credit rating and cause an interest rate rise. Liquidity and business turnovers will lower because people tend not to spend so much when things are uncertain. And after a couple of years when leavers realise that leave wasn't a magic bullet that cures all the problems in their lives there will be quite the backlash.
stongle said:
It's algos that force exaggerated market moves, not City W*nkers etc. Average execution on LSE 13 years ago 60k, today circa 5k. Let's not let facts get in the way of a sensible debate.
As for pricing in Brexit, only starting in earnest now. Seen some vol, but don't think anyone could be believe the collective stupidity of the U.K. electorate if this pans out per the opinions polls (hopefully wrong).
Leave campaign is a total sham, lost all credibility denouncing independent economic advice (the IMF are Cameron's lackeys? Tell that to Merkel when they were sticking one in her eye on Greece 3 weeks ago).
Hopefully this opinion poll (that's the referendum) is ignored, and we get back to normality. Anyone predicting the economic effects of this in days is an idiot of the highest order. We are looking at the medium to long term value destruction of companies - and an absence of a sensible plan (I'd love someone to tell me that post Brexit politics will be orderly but can't see that happening - ever. We could never capitilise on the opportunity of a Brexit - it was a question that should never been asked of the masses).
I fear you are right Stongle. Leaving is just fine but I've yet to hear the economic plan.It genuinely concerns me. Markets getting hit today as i write this....time to lock in my interest rate on my mortgage too I think.As for pricing in Brexit, only starting in earnest now. Seen some vol, but don't think anyone could be believe the collective stupidity of the U.K. electorate if this pans out per the opinions polls (hopefully wrong).
Leave campaign is a total sham, lost all credibility denouncing independent economic advice (the IMF are Cameron's lackeys? Tell that to Merkel when they were sticking one in her eye on Greece 3 weeks ago).
Hopefully this opinion poll (that's the referendum) is ignored, and we get back to normality. Anyone predicting the economic effects of this in days is an idiot of the highest order. We are looking at the medium to long term value destruction of companies - and an absence of a sensible plan (I'd love someone to tell me that post Brexit politics will be orderly but can't see that happening - ever. We could never capitilise on the opportunity of a Brexit - it was a question that should never been asked of the masses).
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 14th June 07:52
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 14th June 07:53
Greg66 said:
kurt535 said:
Assuming a popular 'Leave' win, whats the economic plan the next morning given FTSE and £ will be potentially practising skydiving?
Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
IME of threads on here, Leavers have no plan and take perverse pride in that. They regard it as someone else's job to sort out the mess. Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
Although they will assure you that (a) nothing will change, (b) everything will get better; (c) the appallingly corrupt EU will become our number 1 trusted trading partner; (d) Cameron will have to resign. Reconccile all four of those statements and you've unlocked the keys to the Leave hive mind.
Personally? I think the uncertainty of what happens next and in what period will hurt sterling, knock our credit rating and cause an interest rate rise. Liquidity and business turnovers will lower because people tend not to spend so much when things are uncertain. And after a couple of years when leavers realise that leave wasn't a magic bullet that cures all the problems in their lives there will be quite the backlash.
I've mentioned about the lack of a plan and how we are effectively being asked if we want to jump off a cliff in the hope the water is deep enough to soften the landing but as usual just get smart answers and no substance.
The levels of unknowns in a Brexit are enormous.
Greg66 said:
IME of threads on here, Leavers have no plan and take perverse pride in that. They regard it as someone else's job to sort out the mess.
But that's the point of the referendum. It doesn't seek instruction on the UK's behavior after exit. It doesn't provide any authority for Boris et al. to say 'And we will then...'If we act to reduce regulation and barriers to trade the economy will likely improve compared to the EU. If we put up trade barriers and act to protect our own markets it will likely do worse. I we just act like the EU it will likely match the EU.
lostkiwi said:
Greg66 said:
kurt535 said:
Assuming a popular 'Leave' win, whats the economic plan the next morning given FTSE and £ will be potentially practising skydiving?
Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
IME of threads on here, Leavers have no plan and take perverse pride in that. They regard it as someone else's job to sort out the mess. Does the BoE cut or raise rates and start Quant Easing again?
What happens to Government Gilts?
Is our credit rating lowered?
Does the housing market stop?
Does the Prime Minister suffer a Commons Vote of No Confidence - adding to the financial turmoil?
Although they will assure you that (a) nothing will change, (b) everything will get better; (c) the appallingly corrupt EU will become our number 1 trusted trading partner; (d) Cameron will have to resign. Reconccile all four of those statements and you've unlocked the keys to the Leave hive mind.
Personally? I think the uncertainty of what happens next and in what period will hurt sterling, knock our credit rating and cause an interest rate rise. Liquidity and business turnovers will lower because people tend not to spend so much when things are uncertain. And after a couple of years when leavers realise that leave wasn't a magic bullet that cures all the problems in their lives there will be quite the backlash.
I've mentioned about the lack of a plan and how we are effectively being asked if we want to jump off a cliff in the hope the water is deep enough to soften the landing but as usual just get smart answers and no substance.
The levels of unknowns in a Brexit are enormous.
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