New TVR still under wraps!
Discussion
BJG1 said:
dvs_dave said:
Or 6000 cars over 10 years, yes that's conservative. How many cars did TVR make between 1995-2005? A fair bit more than 6000 units.
They're starting with a premium model though, not knocking out cars that are comparatively cheap to their rivals. I can't see them selling 600 a year for a long time, presuming they survive past the first model
This seems to be the only record of historical production numbers available in the public domain, and its it accuracy is up for debate, but it's a start. This shows that TVR sold on average 813 cars per annum over the 15 year period between 1992-2006. If the new product is decent I stand by my assertion that based on historical performance an average of 600 units per annum is a conservative figure over a decade time period.
dvs_dave said:
BJG1 said:
dvs_dave said:
Or 6000 cars over 10 years, yes that's conservative. How many cars did TVR make between 1995-2005? A fair bit more than 6000 units.
They're starting with a premium model though, not knocking out cars that are comparatively cheap to their rivals. I can't see them selling 600 a year for a long time, presuming they survive past the first modelThis seems to be the only record of historical production numbers available in the public domain, and its it accuracy is up for debate, but it's a start. This shows that TVR sold on average 813 cars per annum over the 15 year period between 1992-2006. If the new product is decent I stand by my assertion that based on historical performance an average of 600 units per annum is a conservative figure over a decade time period.
ellroy said:
Conservative? A bit optimistic I'd suggest.
The game has moved on hugely, think F type in the space they used to occupy, Caymans in GTS/GT4 guise, Alfa 4c, New 'stang, Merc AMG etc etc
I want them to succeed, but they need to do so on about half that build number I'd suggest.
And look how many 1000's of those are being sold per year, in just the UK, let alone globally. TVR just need a tiny percentage of that. Even if they only manage 300 cars a year, the business is still likely viable once you take into consideration the generous grants, incentives and tax breaks that they will be attracting. Using my previous concept calcs as a basis, they would only need 2.25m per annum in incentives etc. to still break even which is totally manageable.The game has moved on hugely, think F type in the space they used to occupy, Caymans in GTS/GT4 guise, Alfa 4c, New 'stang, Merc AMG etc etc
I want them to succeed, but they need to do so on about half that build number I'd suggest.
dvs_dave said:
This seems to be the only record of historical production numbers available in the public domain, and its it accuracy is up for debate, but it's a start. This shows that TVR sold on average 813 cars per annum over the 15 year period between 1992-2006. If the new product is decent I stand by my assertion that based on historical performance an average of 600 units per annum is a conservative figure over a decade time period.
DonkeyApple said:
If you start cheap then you stay cheap and then you go bust. No point in discounting to get volume to people that you don't even want as customers. Much better to start premium and then offer a cheaper version which will be what most people buy.
Look at Tesla and Maclaren, they are now bringing out cheap models having secured the brand image of being expensive and for winners. TVR seems to be following what is the correct route.
Tesla and McClaren spend more on biscuits than the entire TVR projectLook at Tesla and Maclaren, they are now bringing out cheap models having secured the brand image of being expensive and for winners. TVR seems to be following what is the correct route.
The S Series saved TVR in the 80s
The Boxster saved Porsche in the 90s
The Elise saved Lotus in the 90s
At this scale you got to come down the food chain to move up
PuffsBack said:
Tesla and McClaren spend more on biscuits than the entire TVR project
The S Series saved TVR in the 80s
The Boxster saved Porsche in the 90s
The Elise saved Lotus in the 90s
At this scale you got to come down the food chain to move up
All of which were going concerns with a range of existing yet expensive/exotic halo products on the market to trade a cheaper product on. The new TVR situation is totally different as it's a startup with just the brand name being the only carryover.The S Series saved TVR in the 80s
The Boxster saved Porsche in the 90s
The Elise saved Lotus in the 90s
At this scale you got to come down the food chain to move up
dvs_dave said:
All of which were going concerns with a range of existing yet expensive/exotic halo products on the market to trade a cheaper product on. The new TVR situation is totally different as it's a startup with just the brand name being the only carryover.
That's what I was saying. This is unique they've probably had advice on numbers but it's a voyage into the unknown. Doesn't make it easy to do a business plan or borrow money cheaply though! Hopefully they found a petrolhead banker.PuffsBack said:
DonkeyApple said:
If you start cheap then you stay cheap and then you go bust. No point in discounting to get volume to people that you don't even want as customers. Much better to start premium and then offer a cheaper version which will be what most people buy.
Look at Tesla and Maclaren, they are now bringing out cheap models having secured the brand image of being expensive and for winners. TVR seems to be following what is the correct route.
Tesla and McClaren spend more on biscuits than the entire TVR projectLook at Tesla and Maclaren, they are now bringing out cheap models having secured the brand image of being expensive and for winners. TVR seems to be following what is the correct route.
The S Series saved TVR in the 80s
The Boxster saved Porsche in the 90s
The Elise saved Lotus in the 90s
At this scale you got to come down the food chain to move up
Funnily enough, what they did with the Griff and Chimp. Because is the normal way to do things.
If there are any new TVRs they won't be cheap. They never were going to be. And to find several hundred buyers each year then they will be selling to people who have never owned a TVR before.
If they go cheap like Ginetta then just like Ginetta they will sell ten crap cars and then fold.
There just isn't any profit in selling cars with no margin to a few people with no money who aren't prepared to borrow heavily. The only way it can stand a chance of working is by being a premium product.
I do agree with you if you can pull off a top notch premium product. The problem is I don't believe TVR can make a premium product. Tesla and McClaren do but only because both have ridiculous amounts of cash to invest in their projects. And Tesla is essentially a huge gamble, yes it might be one of the biggest car manafacturers in 20 years, but the huge amount if money being invested in it is because of that gamble and nothing to do with how many cars it can sell at the moment. McClaren had a impeachable brand to build with
Les is a wealthy man compared to me, but at the end of the day he sold a few computer games. He doesn't have 100's of millions to play with
Les is a wealthy man compared to me, but at the end of the day he sold a few computer games. He doesn't have 100's of millions to play with
Premium is all relative. We all know that the bulk of any sales will be the cheap model with cardboard infills, not carbon fibre and the standard Ford engine not the Cosworth one etc but the public will need the brand perception of the LE model and the Le Mans race car before the basic models can be sold.
I suspect that the halo TVR product will be over £100k but that the bulk of all sales post the Launch Edition period will be a model probably £30k cheaper. But that model will be selling because of the existence and marketing of the expensive model.
Les seems to have his sights firmly set on taking customers away from DB cars, 911s, F-Types etc and isn't pitching this product against the cheaper MX5 to Boxster end of the sports car spectrum. He is clearly aiming at taking the brand up a notch and when you see where the money is in the UK and the need to include a healthy profit margin then it's the only possible way to do it.
I suspect that the halo TVR product will be over £100k but that the bulk of all sales post the Launch Edition period will be a model probably £30k cheaper. But that model will be selling because of the existence and marketing of the expensive model.
Les seems to have his sights firmly set on taking customers away from DB cars, 911s, F-Types etc and isn't pitching this product against the cheaper MX5 to Boxster end of the sports car spectrum. He is clearly aiming at taking the brand up a notch and when you see where the money is in the UK and the need to include a healthy profit margin then it's the only possible way to do it.
Got to agree with DA that for it to work you need to start with the car people will aspire to own in order to sell the budget car.
Its like Porsche using the 911 image to flog budget Boxsters. In reality the Boxster is little more than an MX5 but commands a bigger price tag for that cu dose. TVR's will never be cheap due to the manufacturing methods and production quantities, so it needs to have a reason to pay a premium for the bread and butter model.
I'm sure the L.E. and future premium models will always be financially just out of the reach of many in order to create that exclusivity required to make the bread and butter model desirable enough to command a profitable price tag.
As for funding, well we all know Les is heading up a consortium of investors, so we have no idea what their true budget is, and they will have gotten good grants and incentives for the Welsh factory (not to mention 50 pence/m2 rental according to the estate agents advert). I suspect the Premium model will always be a financial lost leader long term in order to sell the budget model but that is ok as you wont be selling very many...but he needs to sell 500 for the first batch for the Le Mans car requirements. Seeing DD's fag packet financial model above which excludes the above Welsh grants and incentives i can see this being a success (and its a TVR regardless of where its made or who the director is!).
Its like Porsche using the 911 image to flog budget Boxsters. In reality the Boxster is little more than an MX5 but commands a bigger price tag for that cu dose. TVR's will never be cheap due to the manufacturing methods and production quantities, so it needs to have a reason to pay a premium for the bread and butter model.
I'm sure the L.E. and future premium models will always be financially just out of the reach of many in order to create that exclusivity required to make the bread and butter model desirable enough to command a profitable price tag.
As for funding, well we all know Les is heading up a consortium of investors, so we have no idea what their true budget is, and they will have gotten good grants and incentives for the Welsh factory (not to mention 50 pence/m2 rental according to the estate agents advert). I suspect the Premium model will always be a financial lost leader long term in order to sell the budget model but that is ok as you wont be selling very many...but he needs to sell 500 for the first batch for the Le Mans car requirements. Seeing DD's fag packet financial model above which excludes the above Welsh grants and incentives i can see this being a success (and its a TVR regardless of where its made or who the director is!).
Edited by Bluebottle on Tuesday 20th September 10:58
Bluebottle said:
...Its like Porsche using the 911 image to flog budget Boxsters. In reality the Boxster is little more than an MX5 but commands a bigger price tag for that cu dose.
You lost it there mate. You do know the Boxster and 911 share much of the same technology, including the power unit. Only thing is that in the Boxster it's turned the right way round. Sorry still 
at your comment. PuffsBack said:
Tesla and McClaren spend more on biscuits than the entire TVR project
For the record McClaren(sic) are the tightest automotive i've ever seen! Spend even 50p without authorisation and you'll get a boot up the ar*e from Management!!!Any got worldwide / uk sales volumes for F type? I suspect however that TVR won't be poaching too many F sales as there product is really not the same at all (F is full feature content "lifestyle" sports car, TVR has to be low feature content pure "drivers" sportscar
RichB said:
You lost it there mate. You do know the Boxster and 911 share much of the same technology, including the power unit. Only thing is that in the Boxster it's turned the right way round. Sorry still at your comment. 
but its still a lower production cost 911 isn't it? 350Matt said:
DonkeyApple said:
If they go cheap like Ginetta then just like Ginetta they will sell ten crap cars and then fold.
Have Ginetta gone bust then?I thought LNT bought them back in 2010 and they were making cars ?
I can't see the market for a cheap unsophisticated product and when you get into the premium end the competition is huge and well funded and the consumer base is very very demanding. There weren't enough punters to keep real TVR going with great product and heritage in the noughties so I can't see why people believe buyers will flock to fake Taffy TVR now.
350Matt said:
DonkeyApple said:
If they go cheap like Ginetta then just like Ginetta they will sell ten crap cars and then fold.
Have Ginetta gone bust then?I thought LNT bought them back in 2010 and they were making cars ?
Some people hailed LNT as the would be savour of TVR but hopefully they now see what others were trying to explain at the time which was that if you don't have the money and aren't going to aim the product at the correct segment where the client money is then it's not going to work.
No one wants a crappy, no frills lump of budget plastic in anywhere near enough numbers to make it viable to build a viable road car business. The cheap end is catered for by numerous mass producers who deliver exactly what people want and do it brilliantly. As do the track day specialists. There is no cheap/budget segment for TVR to occupy. Low volume has to be high margin and that means trying to include enough quality to be credible at a price point that delivers that margin while recognising the essential importance of leveraging brand values to underpin both the price and also to generate the demand.
Sadly that means any new TVR will be expensive. It also means the business will need to target the much larger market that is people who haven't or don't own an old TVR. We just have to hope the product is sufficiently desirable to the wider market to achieve that. But I've seen plenty of interest from people who have traditionally bought Astons, 911s and Ferraris and what they are all talking about is the Cosworth engine and Murray. It shows to me that they add a lot of credibility and bragging points.
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