The economic consequences of Brexit

The economic consequences of Brexit

Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit

Total Members Polled: 732

Far worse off than EU countries.: 15%
A bit worse off than if we'd stayed in.: 35%
A bit better off than if we'd stayed in.: 41%
Roughly as rich as the Swiss.: 10%
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Author
Discussion

Dr Jekyll

Original Poster:

23,820 posts

260 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Where do you think we will be in 5 years time? Assuming the government are neither totally suicidal nor develop unprecedented financial genius.

SeeFive

8,280 posts

232 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
This is going to be interesting to triangulate. 60odd percent of PHers polled to vote out. The last days have seen the markets respond to that decision, to the negative spin, and not respond to any actual performance as there has been no change in anything yet, except we have expressed a desire to leave.

Should be interesting...

V8RX7

26,763 posts

262 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Bearing in mind the Greek tragedy and the inevitable fallout...

I'd say we've jumped out of the burning building and whilst we may have broken our legs our long term prospects are far better - 5 yrs should see us slightly ahead if the Government don't screw it up.

It also depends what happens to Turkey - they aren't going to keep holding immigrants back if they don't get a chance to join.

VolvoT5

4,155 posts

173 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
I'm not so sure... the short term blip looks like it could be another 2008 style recession unless things are navigated carefully... and at the moment nobody is at the steering wheel.

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Worse after 5 but I think better after 10.

ianrb

1,529 posts

139 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Depends on what can be negotiated. If it’s just WTO rules and no ties to EU then well be a lot worse off. If it’s EFTA with EU rules & payments we’ll be in a similar position relative to other countries as now, but looking rather stupid.

Don

28,377 posts

283 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Impossible to know. If you were cognizant of the immediate fallout and still voted Leave then you must have been convinced of a long term benefit, but that also that this was a gamble.

Might work, Might not. Anyone who claims to know is using a Crystal Ball...

Interesting times...

powerstroke

10,283 posts

159 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
I think its going to be about making things not funny money , maybe we will see the northern power house they were talking about , A low pound is great for exporters and overseas company earnings ... we can now support our steel and other industrys and most important trade with others without having to go cap in hand to the EU for permission....

Sheets Tabuer

18,897 posts

214 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Four days in, how's it going?

Everything ok?

powerstroke

10,283 posts

159 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all
Sheets Tabuer said:
Four days in, how's it going?

Everything ok?
Making an ommlette eggs are broken our boss won't let us light the gas yet.....

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

169 months

Monday 27th June 2016
quotequote all

Don

28,377 posts

283 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
I am finding this period of the immediate aftermath very illuminating.

Absolutely fk all has changed. fk all. And yet - the very idea that something may change in the future is enough to throw markets into confusion, currencies to wobble in value up and down with absolutely no rationality whatsoever behind it.

Am I to conclude that the whole basis of the world's financial markets is based on...

Ouija boards and magic?
Computer based simulations written by very bad programmers?
Very nervous people?

All of the above?

I think so. How grindingly disappointing. But to be expected.

Dr Jekyll

Original Poster:

23,820 posts

260 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
Don said:
I am finding this period of the immediate aftermath very illuminating.

Absolutely fk all has changed. fk all. And yet - the very idea that something may change in the future is enough to throw markets into confusion, currencies to wobble in value up and down with absolutely no rationality whatsoever behind it.

Am I to conclude that the whole basis of the world's financial markets is based on...

Ouija boards and magic?
Computer based simulations written by very bad programmers?
Very nervous people?

All of the above?

I think so. How grindingly disappointing. But to be expected.
It's based on three things.

1) How much money do I expect this investment to make?
2) How much uncertainty is there in the expectation?
3) What do I expect to happen to the price today as a result of everyone else reacting (possibly wrong headedly) to points 1 and 2.

Point 1 is what really matters, day to day depends on 2 and 3.

Crafty_

13,248 posts

199 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
I think we can expect the EU to come doyen on us hard to discourage other countries from even thinking about leaving and as a result our economy will suffer badly.

iphonedyou

9,234 posts

156 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
Don said:
Am I to conclude that the whole basis of the world's financial markets is based on...

Ouija boards and magic?
Computer based simulations written by very bad programmers?
Very nervous people?

All of the above?

I think so. How grindingly disappointing. But to be expected.
What did you think previously? A truly perfect market, though impossible, would give no opportunity for making money.

Puggit

48,354 posts

247 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
Crafty_ said:
I think we can expect the EU to come doyen on us hard to discourage other countries from even thinking about leaving and as a result our economy will suffer badly.
Which is, of course, a great reason for leaving. Who wants to be a member of a club which treats its citizens with such disdain?

Dr Jekyll

Original Poster:

23,820 posts

260 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
Crafty_ said:
I think we can expect the EU to come doyen on us hard to discourage other countries from even thinking about leaving and as a result our economy will suffer badly.
How would the EU have reacted if the vote had been narrowly for remain and other EU countries still started murmuring about having their own referenda?

irocfan

40,152 posts

189 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
V8RX7 said:
Bearing in mind the Greek tragedy and the inevitable fallout...

I'd say we've jumped out of the burning building and whilst we may have broken our legs our long term prospects are far better - 5 yrs should see us slightly ahead if the Government don't screw it up.

It also depends what happens to Turkey - they aren't going to keep holding immigrants back if they don't get a chance to join.
this ^^^

RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Tuesday 28th June 2016
quotequote all
Puggit said:
Crafty_ said:
I think we can expect the EU to come down on us hard to discourage other countries from even thinking about leaving and as a result our economy will suffer badly.
Which is, of course, a great reason for leaving. Who wants to be a member of a club which treats its citizens with such disdain?
Surely you expect a club to prioritise the interests of it's members over those of (soon to be) non-members? It shows the mindset of many leave supporters when 'our economy will suffer badly' is seen as a great reson for leaving.

I posted this on a previous thread, it sums it up for me:



Edited by RYH64E on Tuesday 28th June 08:50

Gerradi

1,522 posts

119 months

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