The Official 2016 Belgian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[Dr Z]

We’re still in the summer shut down for the teams, but I think we’ve had enough of a break...let’s get the discussion started for the next race.

Date(s): Friday 26 August - Sunday 28 August 2016

UK Broadcast Timings (and local time)

All sessions are live on Sky F1 and Channel 4.

Session	Day	Sky F1	Channel 4	Session Start	Local Time
Practice 1	Fri	0845	0855	0900	1000
Practice 2	Fri	1245	1255	1300	1400
Practice 3	Sat	0945	0955	1000	1100
Qualifying	Sat	1200	1200	1300	1400
Race	Sun	1130	1200	1300	1400

Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps



Live timing for all sessions available here:

http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/f1-...

Info such as lap times, PU use, technical reports, stewards decisions etc for the weekend will appear here:

http://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-ch...

Weather forecast:

http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/Belgium/Spa...

The tyre choices requested by the teams:



Pirelli nominated tyres are Medium and Soft, with teams required to use one of these compounds in the race.

2015 Qualifying

Pos.	Driver	Constructor	Q1	Q2	Q3
1	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1:48.908	1:48.024	1:47.197
2	Nico Rosberg	Mercedes	1:48.923	1:47.955	1:47.655
3	Valtteri Bottas	Williams-Mercedes	1:49.026	1:49.044	1:48.537
4	Romain Grosjean	Lotus-Mercedes	1:49.353	1:48.981	1:48.561
5	Sergio Pérez	Force India-Mercedes	1:49.006	1:48.792	1:48.599
6	Daniel Ricciardo	Red Bull Racing-Renault	1:49.664	1:49.042	1:48.639
7	Felipe Massa	Williams-Mercedes	1:49.688	1:48.806	1:48.685
8	Pastor Maldonado	Lotus-Mercedes	1:49.568	1:48.956	1:48.754
9	Sebastian Vettel	Ferrari	1:49.264	1:48.761	1:48.825
10	Carlos Sainz, Jr.	Toro Rosso-Renault	1:49.109	1:49.065	1:49.771
11	Nico Hülkenberg	Force India-Mercedes	1:49.499	1:49.121	-
12	Daniil Kvyat	Red Bull Racing-Renault	1:49.469	1:49.228	-
13	Marcus Ericsson	Sauber-Ferrari	1:49.523	1:49.586	-
14	Kimi Räikkönen	Ferrari	1:49.288	No time	-
15	Max Verstappen	Toro Rosso-Renault	1:49.831	No time	-
16	Felipe Nasr	Sauber-Ferrari	1:49.952	-	-
17	Jenson Button	McLaren-Honda	1:50.978	-	-
18	Fernando Alonso	McLaren-Honda	1:51.420	-	-
19	Will Stevens	Marussia-Ferrari	1:52.948	-	-
20	Roberto Merhi	Marussia-Ferrari	1:53.099	-	-

2015 Race

Pos.	Driver	Constructor	Laps	Time/Retired	Grid
1	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	43	1:23:40.387	1
2	Nico Rosberg	Mercedes	43	+2.058	2
3	Romain Grosjean	Lotus-Mercedes	43	+37.988	9
4	Daniil Kvyat	Red Bull Racing-Renault	43	+45.692	12
5	Sergio Pérez	Force India-Mercedes	43	+53.997	4
6	Felipe Massa	Williams-Mercedes	43	+55.283	6
7	Kimi Räikkönen	Ferrari	43	+55.703	16
8	Max Verstappen	Toro Rosso-Renault	43	+56.076	18
9	Valtteri Bottas	Williams-Mercedes	43	+1:01.040	3
10	Marcus Ericsson	Sauber-Ferrari	43	+1:31.234	13
11	Felipe Nasr	Sauber-Ferrari	43	+1:42.311	14
121	Sebastian Vettel	Ferrari	42	Tyre failure	8
13	Fernando Alonso	McLaren-Honda	42	+ 1 Lap	20
14	Jenson Button	McLaren-Honda	42	+ 1 Lap	19
15	Roberto Merhi	Marussia-Ferrari	42	+ 1 Lap	17
16	Will Stevens	Marussia-Ferrari	42	+ 1 Lap	15
Ret	Carlos Sainz, Jr.	Toro Rosso-Renault	32	Power unit	10
Ret	Daniel Ricciardo	Red Bull Racing-Renault	19	Electrics	5
Ret	Pastor Maldonado	Lotus-Mercedes	2	Power unit	7
DNS	Nico Hülkenberg	Force India-Mercedes	0	Power unit	11

Fastest Race Lap: 1:52.416 (L34, N. Rosberg; Mercedes)

---

I imagine this is a great track to get back to after the break. As for the actual racing form book, some midfield teams go better than the others but the Mercedes works team’s dominance had been the most acute at this track than any other in the calendar in the last few years. To illustrate, if you compress the 7.004 km long track to just 1 km, preserving all the corners and straights in proportion, the Mercedes car still had more than 0.2 seconds advantage over the field in qualifying last year. The usual advantage had been around 0.1-0.15s. The rest of the field had been remarkably close so we can expect some good racing this year.

Nice to see tyre selection variation among the top teams, with Mercedes perhaps planning on using all three compounds in the race on a 2-stopper? Wonder if Hamilton will take a penalty, as the tyre selection suggests they had more sets to cover for this, if they do decide to take the penalty here.

Pirelli say this regarding their Soft and Medium tyres from last year:

Pirelli said:

Managing the amount of energy going through the tyres is one of the keys to success at Spa. This consists of not only forces exerted through cornering, braking, and acceleration but also the loads generated by the huge changes in elevation, typified by the famous Eau Rouge-Raidillon complex (which subjects the tyre structure and shoulder to an unparalleled 1g compression).

The biggest difficulty with the variable weather in Spa is that many variations exist over the course of just a single lap, making it hard to identify the correct tyre when it rains. It’s possible for one part of the circuit to be completely soaked, but another part to be a hundred per cent dry. Drainage is an issue, meaning that it’s easy to be caught out by streams of water running across the track surface.

The medium tyre is a low working range compound, capable of achieving optimal performance even at a wide range of low temperatures – which is often the case at Spa. The soft tyre by contrast is a high working range compound, suitable for higher temperatures.

I will add to the above, the Super Soft is a low working range compound like the Mediums but it will be interesting to see if it can take the abuse in the form of the compression Pirelli talks about...the tyre failure suffered by Vettel last year in the race causing some kerfuffle. Mostly due to the length of a lap, Pirelli estimated the delta between Soft and Medium at 1.8-2s/lap. This delta is almost approaching the kind of advantage Mercedes had over the field in qualifying, so it makes sense that Mercedes will have the Medium tyre in their strategy plans…

It looks like some Mercedes power trains had reliability issues leading to DNFs for some cars last year...speaking of PUs, despite a comical number of grid penalties, Honda brought some upgrades and they did reasonably well in the race. Though they got lapped once, Fernando put in the 5th fastest lap of the race, in the same lap and same tyres as the fastest lap by Rosberg...the McLaren was 1.2 seconds off the pace of the Mercedes. It will be interesting to see if the gap had widened or closer this time around as Honda are bringing some upgrades as well, I think.

Other things of interest:

Lotus did really well last year with the Mercedes PU but can the chassis carry them through this year for a top 10 finish or may be more?

Red Bull’s performance in the race would be one to watch, as they had decent race pace last year given the compromises they had to make.

Ferrari. Can one of the Ferrari drivers put in an inspired performance to pick the team up?

Weather. Long range forecast is predicting some rain around for the weekend.

Fastest qualifying lap. With the current layout, the fastest lap an F1 car had set was in 2007 by Raikkonen, a 1:45.994...I think we could come very close to that in a dry qualifying.

---

Can someone else start race threads from now on, as I’m having increasing work commitments that mean I’m not able to put as much effort into it? Thanks.

[tight fart]

Are the times correct, race is normally an hour later than quali?

It all hinges on Lewis's penalties for this one.
Quali
Lewis for pole and starts from the back
2 Ros
3 Ric

Race
1 Ros
2 Ves
3 Vet
4 Ham

[Mastodon2]

This race can't come soon enough. I've got F1 withdrawal.

[LaurasOtherHalf]

Dr Z said:

Can someone else start race threads from now on, as I’m having increasing work commitments that mean I’m not able to put as much effort into it? Thanks.

Really sorry to hear that, though hopefully your increased work commitments mean positive things for you personally

The threads won't be quite as good without your info though hopefully we'll still get your analysis and input after the events when time allows. All the best,

[The Moose]

tight fart said:

Are the times correct, race is normally an hour later than quali?

It all hinges on Lewis's penalties for this one.
Quali
Lewis for pole and starts from the back
2 Ros
3 Ric

Race
1 Ros
2 Ves
3 Vet
4 Ham

According to the F1 website, they are correct, yes.

[enjo]

LaurasOtherHalf said:

Really sorry to hear that, though hopefully your increased work commitments mean positive things for you personally

The threads won't be quite as good without your info though hopefully we'll still get your analysis and input after the events when time allows. All the best,

Well put +1.
Thanks for the effort you have put in Dr Z, I'm sure many of us non contributors (thread stalkers) will miss your openers.

[Jasandjules]

Dr Z said:

Can someone else start race threads from now on, as I’m having increasing work commitments that mean I’m not able to put as much effort into it? Thanks.

We've had a chat, and sorry, the answer is no................

We are sure you'll be able to carry on starting threads... Frankly no-one else is going to want to try and be the poor second

[williamp]

Thanks as always. We dont ***need*** as much info as you provide, but its always very welcome, so thanks for all the hard work.

maybe a template is needed, where others can fill in the blanks as required? I'd be happy to do some (a part of me has always wanted to start one of these threads...


And there are very different tyre choices for the ferrari and mercedes....

[NM62]

Jasandjules said:

Dr Z said:

Can someone else start race threads from now on, as I’m having increasing work commitments that mean I’m not able to put as much effort into it? Thanks.

We've had a chat, and sorry, the answer is no................

We are sure you'll be able to carry on starting threads... Frankly no-one else is going to want to try and be the poor second

Sorry Dr Z but JasandJules is correct - nobody else will be able ( or want ) to try and match your excellent openings - I am afraid you will have to resign from your job and become the full time PH F1 Analyst.

On a serious note thanks for all the OP's as they have become the standard which will be hard to beat.

Hamilton to take 1 possibly 2 engine penalties finishing top 6 and DR,MV,NR for the podium, not quite sure on the order yet but don't think NR will win it. I think FI may take it to Ferrari too.

[Dr Z]

LaurasOtherHalf said:

Really sorry to hear that, though hopefully your increased work commitments mean positive things for you personally

The threads won't be quite as good without your info though hopefully we'll still get your analysis and input after the events when time allows. All the best,

Thanks, yeah the work load is getting higher with some positives, but I'll be around and sure to contribute to the race threads.

NM62 said:

Jasandjules said:

We've had a chat, and sorry, the answer is no................

We are sure you'll be able to carry on starting threads... Frankly no-one else is going to want to try and be the poor second

Sorry Dr Z but JasandJules is correct - nobody else will be able ( or want ) to try and match your excellent openings - I am afraid you will have to resign from your job and become the full time PH F1 Analyst.

Leave my day job and be a PH F1 analyst...sounds like my dream job!

Day job pays so I better do well in it!

williamp said:

Thanks as always. We dont ***need*** as much info as you provide, but its always very welcome, so thanks for all the hard work.

maybe a template is needed, where others can fill in the blanks as required? I'd be happy to do some (a part of me has always wanted to start one of these threads...

You should do the next one then! I tend to start them off 10 days before the race (if it's not a back-to-back race), but leave some gap from the previous race. Just quote the OP of this thread and you'll have a template to work off on. I get the tyre allocation jpeg link from the F1 or Pirelli motorsport twitter account, the circuit figure from the fia website, broadcast and session timings from the F1 app. Live timing link is the same for all races. The rest is a bit of fluff (that takes most of the time actually!), so skip or if you'd like to give some comments from your POV of the upcoming race, go for it.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Dr Z - your threads and insights have been fantastic, sorry you cannot continue to commit as much time to them. Thanks for all the effort you have put in, I hope the work commitments are a positive for you (as others have said).

[Likes Fast Cars]

I am also having F1 withdrawal symptoms as a result of this summer break.

Belgium prediction: I suspect Lewis will win (again)....

Saying that, I realise how boring the July races were (oh no, wait for it, fanboys and tinfoil hat time...!)

I'll put my neck on the line for the rest of the podium:

2. Daniel R
3. Kimi

[Jasandjules]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Belgium prediction: I suspect Lewis will win (again)....

I am expecting Lewis to take a fair amount of engine penalties and then scrap his way through the pack, which will make it exciting for us and him!

[MissChief]

Jasandjules said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Belgium prediction: I suspect Lewis will win (again)....

I am expecting Lewis to take a fair amount of engine penalties and then scrap his way through the pack, which will make it exciting for us and him!

I can see them taking a new engine before qualifying and then a new engine before the race, breaking Parc Ferme. They'll certainly take two engines and ancillaries at some point over the weekend to get it out of the way. On a track like this with long straights and fast corners they'll be in the points relatively quickly.

[Blayney]

Hamilton fighting through at Spa... what a prospect!

[Crafty_]

Any early weather forecasts ? a bit of rain will mix it up nicely and if Rosberg can't get on the pace it could minimise any points loss that Hamilton suffers as a result of penalties.

That would leave us with the red bulls boys fighting it out for a win...

[Norfolkit]

Crafty_ said:

Any early weather forecasts ? a bit of rain will mix it up nicely

Nooo, don't say that, we're camping there.

[cgt2]

Let's hope it rains and Hamilton gets his penalties out of the way. With the way Rosberg has struggled in the wet lately there is a fair chance Red Bull may win and it's also possible Hamilton can get on the podium, especially if there is a safety car.

Then again Hamilton may choose not to take a penalty at this race as it seems he saved a lot of engine life in the past two races.

Ferrari are also now claiming to have unlocked some more pace and McLaren may have the Honda engine upgrade. So it could be very interesting.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Jasandjules said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

Belgium prediction: I suspect Lewis will win (again)....

I am expecting Lewis to take a fair amount of engine penalties and then scrap his way through the pack, which will make it exciting for us and him!

Let's hope there's some excitement. As much as I rate Lewis (probably the most naturally talented driver I've seen in years) I'm finding the ease with which he wins is now boring me stless.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Crafty_ said:

Any early weather forecasts ? a bit of rain will mix it up nicely and if Rosberg can't get on the pace it could minimise any points loss that Hamilton suffers as a result of penalties.

That would leave us with the red bulls boys fighting it out for a win...

as long as DR wins