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peatmoor

Original Poster:

187 posts

31 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
Let me share a theory of mine.

Classic car prices have maintained a trajectory, normally associated with economic boom and wealth creation since 2008. A trend of course, that has surprised me and I'm sure a number of you, given the state of the economy and especially considering rising costs associated to running older cars.
My theory is this:
Baby boomers (those born between 1943 and 1960ish) are retiring, or nearing retirement.
They own something in the region of 80% of this countries wealth (unsubstantiated but its a significant chunk)
As the retire, these people are liquidating assets (perhaps a company they owned, or withdrawing from their pension). As they do so they are looking for something to give them enjoyment in their (not quite old age) perhaps sparking a passion they had when they were younger and now have the time to enjoy and work on classic cars.
So what I ask is this: are baby boomers driving the classic car market upwards? Does anyone have first hand evidence of this?
I realise that markets, like any other, have many drivers but this stood out as a reason. Another being quantitative easing which seems to be supporting all luxury end assets (wine, lux property, art etc).
Thoughts welcome,
PM

Yertis

12,330 posts

152 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
Interesting theory.

I'm also interested in what happens to the prices of 'division 2' classics, things like MGs and TRs etc, when the people who have coveted them in their youth and restored them, start to die off. I don't think the generation below will be that intersted in them.

GadgeS3C

3,459 posts

50 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
There doesn't seem to be any lack of interest in vintage cars.

I suspect that although the obvious buyers (those that wanted one as a kid etc.) might die off, the limited supply and the investment potential (good in some ways, sad in others) means supply and demand will likely remain supply limited.

nicanary

1,734 posts

32 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
Yertis said:
Interesting theory.

I'm also interested in what happens to the prices of 'division 2' classics, things like MGs and TRs etc, when the people who have coveted them in their youth and restored them, start to die off. I don't think the generation below will be that intersted in them.
I agree entirely. You hanker after things you remember from your youth - thus as you get to about 50 yrs old, and have disposable cash, you recreate your memories. In years to come, the cars in demand will differ from those of today. It's already starting to happen - look at the prices of Mk I Escorts.

I belong to another forum which I joined for the motorsport history sub-forum, but everyone on there posts about the 70s and 80s, which don't interest me at all. The reason being that the members are all about 20 years younger than me. The same thing applies to collectables - my era likes Dinky Toys, and old Motor Sport magazines, but you can't find a buyer any more.

Ditto F1 racing - ask for your favourite car from the past, and they'll come up with something from the 80s, which to me is just yesterday. Young people today will get to 50, and want to buy an old Elise, or a Subarishi WTEvo or whatever. Age of the vehicle doesn't count any more, it's whether anyone wants to buy it that dictates the value- many real quality vintage cars fetch less than a restored Mini. It's the Mini that people want now.

austin

865 posts

89 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
GadgeS3C said:
There doesn't seem to be any lack of interest in vintage cars.

I suspect that although the obvious buyers (those that wanted one as a kid etc.) might die off, the limited supply and the investment potential (good in some ways, sad in others) means supply and demand will likely remain supply limited.
The thing with many vintage cars is a little bit more complicated though. The people that wanted one a kid maybe to old to want to start buying them now, the people that owned them as first cars because they were the cheapest thing around however are the baby boomers mentioned above.

I speak as someone with a garage full of vintage cars by the way, one of which was bought as an investment, (if you ask my wife!)
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na

7,775 posts

120 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
babyboomers were retiring or semi-retiring 15-20 years ago aged around 55 with good incomes and good pensions (plus all the discounts and entitlements they get) so they have plenty of disposable income

at the other end the youngsters, the age of their grandchildren, well some are interested in the 'affordable' classics as we witness here and we need to encourage them, unfortunately the clubs for these cars are run by and full of old farts that mainly want to do the same old boring club activies with people of their age that they've been doing for decades and not attracting or attractive to youngsters

ETA: what we call classic the general public and younger people now call vintage (please don't repeat the classifications for vintage and veteran as I'm refering to those people who are not vintage or veteran enthusiasts)

Edited by na on Friday 5th October 15:26

braddo

4,394 posts

74 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
It will be interesting to see if the classic/older car market gets supported in the longer term by the fact that new cars are becoming increasingly homogenous, dull, ugly, complicated and uninteresting to drive.

I would imagine the demand for vintage cars will dwindle as they are too far removed from a remotely modern driving experience, but perhaps middle aged men will continue to find that stimulating even in 20-40 years' time. I can see how stuff from the 60s to 90s could be very coveted in the long term, as that era will be the zenith of combining design/useability/simplicity/engagement for motor cars.

slomax

3,608 posts

78 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
sounds about right to me.

My old man has a boring desiesel vectra with 140k on it. He's looking at replacing it with a slightly less boring, but still boring volvo (s60/v60) in the next year or so. As soon as the garage no longer has my car in it, he is planning on utilising the space. He has already offered to buy my car off me at the going rate when i no longer want it due to either an upgrade or side step. Despite this, he has already spent the last 6 months scoping out what he can fit in and would be relatively cheap to run and gallons of fun, although, bizarrely, his expected budget is in the region on 10-15k, which although isn't an absolute fortune, you can still buy an awful lot with.


geeman237

154 posts

71 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
Interesting topic of discussion, and one I have thought about. I am 43 and always liked the classics from the late 50' to early 70's. I would say that makes me relatively 'young' for cars of that period. I had my first Herald when all the other guys lusted after XR3is' etc. I am a member of a few car clubs for cars of the era I like, but I don't go to the club meetings, mostly for the reasons others of you have mentioned, ie run by older folks, nearer my parents age etc. (no offence) I like to drive my cars and sometimes a lot more enthusiastically that others, hence a 35 mph convoy on a Sunday afternoon holds no appeal. But a chance of a track day or similar is more my thing.

With regards to the market of cars we generally call classics of the 1960's +/-, I have wondered that, as the generation of more demographic owner (aged 60+?) shall we say 'hang up their driving gloves' is there a generation interested enough to continue to buy the Healey's and TR's etc that will maintain the prices or will we possibly see a drop in demand and hence price for some cars? Stock of the cars may drop a bit, but as a lot get restored then not used too much they may be around in larger numbers than the more vintage era cars.

Another factor that might have an influence on the market and hobby is the garages and restoration shops to work on the cars. How many young people are interested in coming into the business wanting to learn how to tune twin SU's etc? Also, people seem to have less time to or inclination to work on their cars today, so if there are less fully trained technicians and mechanics to service the cars, and people don't/can't do it themselves, the old guys currently running the garages retire and close up shop, then is there ultimately going to be a drop in the market for the cars?

I know almost all my friends of my age have no interest in the cars of the 1960's etc.

Just my thoughts on this.




benjj

5,377 posts

49 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
I'd like to think that there are stillpeople like me who are just a fan of engineering.

I own 1.5 classics - the DS and a 30 year old Porsche 944.

Neither of these cars were on my wall as a boy. The DS is a beautiful oddity that makes me smile, the Porsche is effective, fast, robust and offers brilliant handling.

Hopefully in the future these things will still be desirable (the attributes, not my specific cars) and the next generation will continue to be interested in older metal.

That said, as I've made no bones about on PH before, in my eyes no single car is a work of art - they are tools and should be used, as hard as they're comfortable with.

I wouldn't put a particularly expensive/rare/interesting spanner, microwave or brick on display, the same goes for cars.

Long live the idiot smile

JCW

896 posts

93 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
To an extent the marking is driving itself. A fair chunk of money is invested as the return is superior to cash holdings, bonds and other traditional investments.

Certainly in the back of my mind is the fact that I will get a 10% return whilst having some fun.

FailHere

372 posts

38 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
I'm in my mid-fifties, so as part of the target demographic I'll stick my two-pennworth in.

I have little disposable income, it all gets disposed of quite easily. I am still, however, eligible for a reasonable final salary pension with lump sum when I retire.

If I'm lucky enough to live long enough to retire I shall be buying a Bristol, I was talked out of buying one when I was nineteen and have regretted it ever since. (It's about the only thing left on my "cars I want before I die" list, fortunately I have never lusted after anything too expensive.)

As to what will happen to my cars after I'm gone, well it really doesn't bother me, I won't be around, I have no heirs, it will all be going to the dogs' home.



LordBretSinclair

2,943 posts

63 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
Depends I think on whether you're talking about long term petrolheads or people who now have a bit of spare cash.
I retired 2 years ago but like to think I've been a petrolhead most of my life. My parents bought my first "classic", an MG Midget, for me as a graduation present (those were the days) and I've had something of "interest" in the garage ever since. My mid life crisis was 5 years ago when I bought the Aston to go with the other toys in the garage, so yes it could fit with your theory but it was a life long ambition to have one helped by the fact that Lady S, when asked about her thoughts, just said "if you really want one then get one", bless her.
Whatever the reason for buying a classic we should be grateful that there is still interest in old cars but I fear it may drop off as us "old f*rts" drop off hehe

Skyedriver

5,095 posts

168 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
Interesting thread this one
As a 59 year old who has driven "classics" most of his life but sold many of them before they became classics and increasing in value, I can see many differing views, most of them valid.
I need to think about this one before a proper response.

ps I had a 6 foot long picture of a Blower Bentley on my bedroom wall as a kid, never lusted after one as a grown up though. My other favourites at the time were Sunbeam Alpine (didn't like the Tiger 'cos it had extra chrome trims on the sides!!) (never owned or even driven one) and the mini (and I have had plenty of them).

esso

1,522 posts

103 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
I`m in my mid-fifties and have been a Petrolhead all my life,in the seventies i was into custom-cars,i then got into classic-cars and 8 years ago i decided to buy a TVR Cerbera and still have it.I have been thinking what i would replace it with when i retire.....if my pension plan does as well as predicted!?!?....its going to be an Aston Martin V12 of some description,that`s if i`m fit and sane enough to drive it!
As for the younger generation and classic-cars,i think its going to be 2nd-generation owners,where the knowledge of running and maintaining classic cars has been passed down.My Father-in-Law is knocking on 70 years of age and still drives a 2.8 Capri.He is helping my 18 year old step-son who has been crazy about Mini`s all his life,restore a 1985 Mini(its taken a year but its nearly finished),i guess that is 3rd generation owners!?! This is the only way the younger generation are going to learn the skills of maintaining older vehicles because its not taught anymore and you cant fix a modern car with a bag of spanners....its open the bonnet and plug in a laptop to diagnose the problem!!!....then its `that will be £500 sir` for a new piece of electronic gadgetry!

Interesting post BTW.

Edited by esso on Friday 5th October 20:54


Edited by esso on Friday 5th October 20:58

hidetheelephants

8,064 posts

79 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
Skyedriver said:
ps I had a 6 foot long picture of a Blower Bentley on my bedroom wall as a kid, never lusted after one as a grown up though.
My wall had prints of the Napier Railton and a Phantom F4K being flung off the front of one of Her Majesty's aircraft carriers; given the choice I'd prefer the F4! hehe

deltashad

4,933 posts

83 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
I don't think youngsters have the same interest in cars as us oldies.

When I was a kid, cars were something the majority of boys couldn't wait to buy and work on, add some twin webbers and a cherry bomb.

All the programs on telly featured cars, automan, magnum, hardcastle & mccormack, nightrider etc.... what do we get now? Only way is Essex, unfortunately not involving an Esprit or v6, and x factor.

Buy a white range rover sport and lock it in your garage. That'll be the next generation classic.

LordBretSinclair

2,943 posts

63 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
esso said:
I`m in my mid-fifties and have been a Petrolhead all my life,in the seventies i was into custom-cars,i then got into classic-cars and 8 years ago i decided to buy a TVR Cerbera and still have it.I have been thinking what i would replace it with when i retire.....if my pension plan does as well as predicted!?!?....its going to be an Aston Martin V12 of some description,that`s if i`m fit and sane enough to drive it!
As for the younger generation and classic-cars,i think its going to be 2nd-generation owners,where the knowledge of running and maintaining classic cars has been passed down.My Father-in-Law is knocking on 70 years of age and still drives a 2.8 Capri.He is helping my 18 year old step-son who has been crazy about Mini`s all his life,restore a 1985 Mini(its taken a year but its nearly finished),i guess that is 3rd generation owners!?! This is the only way the younger generation are going to learn the skills of maintaining older vehicles because its not taught anymore and you cant fix a modern car with a bag of spanners....its open the bonnet and plug in a laptop to diagnose the problem!!!....then its `that will be £500 sir` for a new piece of electronic gadgetry!

Interesting post BTW.

Edited by esso on Friday 5th October 20:54


Edited by esso on Friday 5th October 20:58
Wait until you get your Aston - £500 will be chicken feed rofl

Go for it though, you're here for a good time, not a long time.

jason61c

1,422 posts

60 months

[news] 
Friday 5th October 2012 quote quote all
I guess its not always that simple.

I'm 31, I've got a 1970 240z, not my era at all!

For me it was about the design, looks and what it meant at the time. To add to that, I think classic cars are a safe place to have cash. I wouldn't say better than the bank but more a more interesting place.

coppice

1,453 posts

30 months

[news] 
Saturday 6th October 2012 quote quote all
It was ever thus- which is why prices of even the less sexy 60s Ferraris- 330GTC anybody ?- are so high now;but some 30s cars are surprisingly affordable when I look in the back of C and SC . Reason- fewer of that demographic around than us baby boomers. I am 59 (until Monday anyway ) and nearly all of my dream cars come from the era when I first fell in love with cars; usual suspects (Duetto, Elan ,GT40, Dino, 275GTB,1750 GTV and 289 (not thuggish 427 thank you )and some more left field ones like CV8 and Gordon Keeble ). Anything from the 70s - Alfasud maybe? Not much from 80s to now apart from various 911s and the McLaren F1, and I wouldn't throw a F458 out of bed either.

I don't own a classic per se but do own a very quick Caterham which although 2007 is really a 60 s car. I would hate the unreliability of most v old stuuff but keep looking at the Alfaholics web site- Duetto with modern engine is rather appealing - philistine ?
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