When can the classic car price bubble crash?
Discussion
Capris heading towards £85k?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/news/minder-cars-f...
(Provenance is everything!)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/news/minder-cars-f...
(Provenance is everything!)
Some really interesting comments here.
Having spent two days at the London Classic Car Show I would have to say I think the classic car market was in more danger 12 months ago. Confidence is high amongst dealers, owners and buyers.
I personally think that the market is in pretty good shape at the moment and there were some interesting points raised at the Hagerty Valuation seminars at the show which would reflect that POV.
We put a lot of time and effort into understanding the market and this is what we published a few days ago. Are the results of the Arizona and Paris auctions just the tip of the iceberg?
We would consider that the number of "pure" investors in the market is small. Speculators have left the market by-and-large and we have seen a marked uplift in interest from enthusiasts in the last 3 months.
Other considerations.
Price does not necessarily = value!
Auctions only have a 10% share of the classic car sales market.
Sales activity in the classic car sector over the last few years has not been exponential.
Regardless of values, people are going to keep buying classics.
Having spent two days at the London Classic Car Show I would have to say I think the classic car market was in more danger 12 months ago. Confidence is high amongst dealers, owners and buyers.
I personally think that the market is in pretty good shape at the moment and there were some interesting points raised at the Hagerty Valuation seminars at the show which would reflect that POV.
We put a lot of time and effort into understanding the market and this is what we published a few days ago. Are the results of the Arizona and Paris auctions just the tip of the iceberg?
We would consider that the number of "pure" investors in the market is small. Speculators have left the market by-and-large and we have seen a marked uplift in interest from enthusiasts in the last 3 months.
Other considerations.
Price does not necessarily = value!
Auctions only have a 10% share of the classic car sales market.
Sales activity in the classic car sector over the last few years has not been exponential.
Regardless of values, people are going to keep buying classics.
Strela said:
To quote Blazing Saddles, "Never mind that s
t". Have a butcher's hook at this
http://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C713146
Sure, if you don't ask, you don't get, but did the vendor smoke a few too many bananas or lick one trippy frog too many or whatever the original owners of this shed did back in the 60s? How long before we see the first 50k Morris Traveller?
Perhaps you are a bit out of touch. Split window campers have been going for silly money for years. This one is only just marginally more silly than normal.t". Have a butcher's hook at this http://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C713146
Sure, if you don't ask, you don't get, but did the vendor smoke a few too many bananas or lick one trippy frog too many or whatever the original owners of this shed did back in the 60s? How long before we see the first 50k Morris Traveller?
Its not just rare cars that are affected by this, and while I don't grudge dealers and restorers their business I really struggle to see how prices like these are sustainable. I've argued how the classic market has changed from one which offered value to one which does the opposite, how it is dreams that are being sold not cars, and that it has gone from something for enthusiasts to something for investors. There was a long long time when it was obvious that these wonderful things were massively undervalued, but that was then and their value has now been recognised. It isn't going to happen again. Of course I see the attraction of these cars, but I don't see how you justify £750k or more for a DB6 MK.II Volante when you can order a new DB9 Volante for £150k. Yes I know how pretty the 6V is, how evocative that studded wood rimmed steering wheel is with its view over that marvellous bonnet, the ripping calico sound of the 3995cc straight six. I toured the AM factory at NP when they were still building DBS 6's, and I spent my schooldays trying to persuade relatives to buy them, but are you not better to commission your own brand new Aston today exactly how you want it, the way the guy who originally bought the 6V did, keep the tradition going, and drive a far better car, which is also in better than concours 'factory fresh' condition for the profoundly good reason that it's brand bloody new? It's also safer, faster, handles better and quite possibly prettier, because the designers have learnt something too. I own a 'new' DBS and I can't say that I envy someone in a DB5, though I certainly respect their taste. Likewise and I'm sorry for boring you guys, but a McLaren 570S at £160k is a far far far better buy than a Dino Ferrari at £500k and if I was 'investing for fun and profit' that's what I would buy, that and the DB9 Volante. Would Q build you a DB9 GT Volante? Worth asking. Those are today's sleepers imho.
Why pay a fortune for a Morris Traveller or anything for a Morris Minor, which in the end of the day was never anything more than just a crappy bag of old spanners, when you can buy a new Boxster, or a second hand F Type, or a BMW M2? Cars have moved on, and the improvements made have been made mostly for very good reasons. A Capri is a nice interesting car, when it is traded at 'Wheeler Dealers' kind of prices, but let's not kid ourselves on that its worth way more than a new Ford Mustang. It just isn't and it never was.
In the end, if collectors are prepared to pay these prices, good luck to them, these are lovely things, unquestionably rare, and deserve to be in immaculate condition, but if I was investing at these kind of levels I would be very nervous, no matter how long this has gone on, it doesn't mean the bubble can't burst. I can see DB4, 5 and 6's, original DBS at £100k or more, plus the cost of restoration, say £350k or so but at two or three times that, it wouldn't be for me, no matter how much money I had. I am also very nervous of how much the marque specialists will charge for fettling them and keeping them in their immaculate condition.
Maybe I just don't get this, and I have to say that there are plenty of rich people who spend tens of millions of pounds on yachts I wouldn't want as a gift, and however crazy the classic car market seems, it's not as crazy as that. With chassis numbers and VIN certificates, not to mention manufacturers certificates of authenticity, Ferrari Classiche and so forth, it has at least to be said that there is a greater chance of authenticity than you have if you are buying an antique sideboard or a painting 'by' a famous artist. Or maybe by a famous con artist.
Why pay a fortune for a Morris Traveller or anything for a Morris Minor, which in the end of the day was never anything more than just a crappy bag of old spanners, when you can buy a new Boxster, or a second hand F Type, or a BMW M2? Cars have moved on, and the improvements made have been made mostly for very good reasons. A Capri is a nice interesting car, when it is traded at 'Wheeler Dealers' kind of prices, but let's not kid ourselves on that its worth way more than a new Ford Mustang. It just isn't and it never was.
In the end, if collectors are prepared to pay these prices, good luck to them, these are lovely things, unquestionably rare, and deserve to be in immaculate condition, but if I was investing at these kind of levels I would be very nervous, no matter how long this has gone on, it doesn't mean the bubble can't burst. I can see DB4, 5 and 6's, original DBS at £100k or more, plus the cost of restoration, say £350k or so but at two or three times that, it wouldn't be for me, no matter how much money I had. I am also very nervous of how much the marque specialists will charge for fettling them and keeping them in their immaculate condition.
Maybe I just don't get this, and I have to say that there are plenty of rich people who spend tens of millions of pounds on yachts I wouldn't want as a gift, and however crazy the classic car market seems, it's not as crazy as that. With chassis numbers and VIN certificates, not to mention manufacturers certificates of authenticity, Ferrari Classiche and so forth, it has at least to be said that there is a greater chance of authenticity than you have if you are buying an antique sideboard or a painting 'by' a famous artist. Or maybe by a famous con artist.
OK, I'll bite, I know I shouldn't but...
I own both an XK150 and an XKR X150. The XKR is faster, has better brakes, more grip, is quieter and more comfortable and by any subjective measure is a better car. But the fact remains that no matter how much fun the XKR is, the XK150 is still more fun, even when it is less comfortable, slightly slower
and noisier. So if I want to get somewhere on time or in comfort I'll take the XKR. If I want to go out for a drive I'll take the XK150.
With a modern car you don't drive it. You point it in the right direction and it works out all the details for you. The XKR has ABS, it has traction control, electronic dampers. The engine management system smooths off all the gear changes etc. All of this happens behind your back and if you really foul thing up the chassis will do things to keep you on the road that no driver could ever do (but a decent driver wouldn't have gotten themselves into the hole in the first place).
In the XK150 none of that happens for you, if you fk up you can fk up big time, if you get it right, it's you that gets in right not some programmer in their labs. Which is what makes it more fun, it's just more involving. Besides the enjoyment at actually how good something best part of 60 years old is. You expect the XKR to be wonderful, and I'm often surprised at just how good it is, but I always more surprised at just how good a car the XK150 is.
Now other people might look at the price thing.
Almost all modern cars will depreciate. The XKR won't be worth what I paid for it last year, although someone in the Jag forum was saying that they aren't going down much at the moment (they would if I ever decided to sell). On the other hand there is never going to be a new XK150, so the their isn't the same pressure of depreciation. You talked about asking AM to build you a new DB6V, they can't, or at least if they did you wouldn't be allowed to drive it on the road. Sure they could build you a customised DBS or DB9 or whatever, but it still wouldn't be a DB6V. Anyone with a pot full of cash can have a DB9, but when it comes to a DB6V there are only a handful to go around, so it will be more exclusive, for people who feel that is important to them.
Coming back the fact that AM can't build you a new DB6V, here we have a major difference to the art world. I can buy modern prints of old masters and they work perfectly well on my walls, whereas a modern copy of DB6 would be more difficult and it sounds like the DVLA are making it more difficult still.
I own both an XK150 and an XKR X150. The XKR is faster, has better brakes, more grip, is quieter and more comfortable and by any subjective measure is a better car. But the fact remains that no matter how much fun the XKR is, the XK150 is still more fun, even when it is less comfortable, slightly slower
and noisier. So if I want to get somewhere on time or in comfort I'll take the XKR. If I want to go out for a drive I'll take the XK150.With a modern car you don't drive it. You point it in the right direction and it works out all the details for you. The XKR has ABS, it has traction control, electronic dampers. The engine management system smooths off all the gear changes etc. All of this happens behind your back and if you really foul thing up the chassis will do things to keep you on the road that no driver could ever do (but a decent driver wouldn't have gotten themselves into the hole in the first place).
In the XK150 none of that happens for you, if you f
k up you can fk up big time, if you get it right, it's you that gets in right not some programmer in their labs. Which is what makes it more fun, it's just more involving. Besides the enjoyment at actually how good something best part of 60 years old is. You expect the XKR to be wonderful, and I'm often surprised at just how good it is, but I always more surprised at just how good a car the XK150 is.Now other people might look at the price thing.
Almost all modern cars will depreciate. The XKR won't be worth what I paid for it last year, although someone in the Jag forum was saying that they aren't going down much at the moment (they would if I ever decided to sell). On the other hand there is never going to be a new XK150, so the their isn't the same pressure of depreciation. You talked about asking AM to build you a new DB6V, they can't, or at least if they did you wouldn't be allowed to drive it on the road. Sure they could build you a customised DBS or DB9 or whatever, but it still wouldn't be a DB6V. Anyone with a pot full of cash can have a DB9, but when it comes to a DB6V there are only a handful to go around, so it will be more exclusive, for people who feel that is important to them.
Coming back the fact that AM can't build you a new DB6V, here we have a major difference to the art world. I can buy modern prints of old masters and they work perfectly well on my walls, whereas a modern copy of DB6 would be more difficult and it sounds like the DVLA are making it more difficult still.
cardigankid said:
Its not just rare cars that are affected by this, and while I don't grudge dealers and restorers their business I really struggle to see how prices like these are sustainable. I've argued how the classic market has changed from one which offered value to one which does the opposite, how it is dreams that are being sold not cars, and that it has gone from something for enthusiasts to something for investors. There was a long long time when it was obvious that these wonderful things were massively undervalued, but that was then and their value has now been recognised. It isn't going to happen again. Of course I see the attraction of these cars, but I don't see how you justify £750k or more for a DB6 MK.II Volante when you can order a new DB9 Volante for £150k. Yes I know how pretty the 6V is, how evocative that studded wood rimmed steering wheel is with its view over that marvellous bonnet, the ripping calico sound of the 3995cc straight six. I toured the AM factory at NP when they were still building DBS 6's, and I spent my schooldays trying to persuade relatives to buy them, but are you not better to commission your own brand new Aston today exactly how you want it, the way the guy who originally bought the 6V did, keep the tradition going, and drive a far better car, which is also in better than concours 'factory fresh' condition for the profoundly good reason that it's brand bloody new? It's also safer, faster, handles better and quite possibly prettier, because the designers have learnt something too. I own a 'new' DBS and I can't say that I envy someone in a DB5, though I certainly respect their taste. Likewise and I'm sorry for boring you guys, but a McLaren 570S at £160k is a far far far better buy than a Dino Ferrari at £500k and if I was 'investing for fun and profit' that's what I would buy, that and the DB9 Volante. Would Q build you a DB9 GT Volante? Worth asking. Those are today's sleepers imho.
Why pay a fortune for a Morris Traveller or anything for a Morris Minor, which in the end of the day was never anything more than just a crappy bag of old spanners, when you can buy a new Boxster, or a second hand F Type, or a BMW M2? Cars have moved on, and the improvements made have been made mostly for very good reasons. A Capri is a nice interesting car, when it is traded at 'Wheeler Dealers' kind of prices, but let's not kid ourselves on that its worth way more than a new Ford Mustang. It just isn't and it never was.
In the end, if collectors are prepared to pay these prices, good luck to them, these are lovely things, unquestionably rare, and deserve to be in immaculate condition, but if I was investing at these kind of levels I would be very nervous, no matter how long this has gone on, it doesn't mean the bubble can't burst. I can see DB4, 5 and 6's, original DBS at £100k or more, plus the cost of restoration, say £350k or so but at two or three times that, it wouldn't be for me, no matter how much money I had. I am also very nervous of how much the marque specialists will charge for fettling them and keeping them in their immaculate condition.
Maybe I just don't get this, and I have to say that there are plenty of rich people who spend tens of millions of pounds on yachts I wouldn't want as a gift, and however crazy the classic car market seems, it's not as crazy as that. With chassis numbers and VIN certificates, not to mention manufacturers certificates of authenticity, Ferrari Classiche and so forth, it has at least to be said that there is a greater chance of authenticity than you have if you are buying an antique sideboard or a painting 'by' a famous artist. Or maybe by a famous con artist.
I think we have to agree to disagree.Why pay a fortune for a Morris Traveller or anything for a Morris Minor, which in the end of the day was never anything more than just a crappy bag of old spanners, when you can buy a new Boxster, or a second hand F Type, or a BMW M2? Cars have moved on, and the improvements made have been made mostly for very good reasons. A Capri is a nice interesting car, when it is traded at 'Wheeler Dealers' kind of prices, but let's not kid ourselves on that its worth way more than a new Ford Mustang. It just isn't and it never was.
In the end, if collectors are prepared to pay these prices, good luck to them, these are lovely things, unquestionably rare, and deserve to be in immaculate condition, but if I was investing at these kind of levels I would be very nervous, no matter how long this has gone on, it doesn't mean the bubble can't burst. I can see DB4, 5 and 6's, original DBS at £100k or more, plus the cost of restoration, say £350k or so but at two or three times that, it wouldn't be for me, no matter how much money I had. I am also very nervous of how much the marque specialists will charge for fettling them and keeping them in their immaculate condition.
Maybe I just don't get this, and I have to say that there are plenty of rich people who spend tens of millions of pounds on yachts I wouldn't want as a gift, and however crazy the classic car market seems, it's not as crazy as that. With chassis numbers and VIN certificates, not to mention manufacturers certificates of authenticity, Ferrari Classiche and so forth, it has at least to be said that there is a greater chance of authenticity than you have if you are buying an antique sideboard or a painting 'by' a famous artist. Or maybe by a famous con artist.
I too bought new and still own a DBS 5 years ago. It's done 1500 and apart from the fact that it's pretty I have absolutely no interest in using it.
On a rare sunny day, given the chance it's ANY of my classics over one of my modern hairy cars which are quite obviously more capable in every respect EXCEPT they don't have real class and individuality
vpr said:
I think we have to agree to disagree.
I too bought new and still own a DBS 5 years ago. It's done 1500 and apart from the fact that it's pretty I have absolutely no interest in using it.
On a rare sunny day, given the chance it's ANY of my classics over one of my modern hairy cars which are quite obviously more capable in every respect EXCEPT they don't have real class and individuality
WHS^^^I too bought new and still own a DBS 5 years ago. It's done 1500 and apart from the fact that it's pretty I have absolutely no interest in using it.
On a rare sunny day, given the chance it's ANY of my classics over one of my modern hairy cars which are quite obviously more capable in every respect EXCEPT they don't have real class and individuality
I have a few "modern classics" amongst my stable.
What keys do I reach for when I want a leisure drive.
The keys to a 1964 mk1 Mini Woody.
Why?
If you have to ask you'll never understand.
FWIW the market cooled over the winter period as is usual but also because the speculators moved out of the market, what's replaced them are folk who now have the Capitol to invest in the car they always wanted or perhaps once had.
That's why such large prices are being asked and achieved for some of the more run of the mill motors.
Strela said:
You would have to be born yesterday to think there was any money to be made on it.
Someone will make money on it - most likely the dealer 
There are few certainties when it come to the classic car market but as this thread demonstrates one of them is that everyone is different. All I can tell you is that there are ton of genuine enthusiasts out there who are willing to pay not far off (or a proportion of) what some of these cars are being offered for. Just because they have the wherewithal to spend more money than others doesn't mean they aren't died-in-the-wool petrol heads.This is a theme that keeps popping up in the forums - that you can't have money and really appreciate cars.
I do agree with you that some speculators need their heads examined if they think they are going to make a shed-load of cash on some of the crazy "investment opportunities" that some people are punting.
Xpuffin said:
FWIW the market cooled over the winter period as is usual but also because the speculators moved out of the market, what's replaced them are folk who now have the Capitol to invest in the car they always wanted or perhaps once had.
That's why such large prices are being asked and achieved for some of the more run of the mill motors.
December and January were unseasonably busy for many dealers.That's why such large prices are being asked and achieved for some of the more run of the mill motors.
Interesting to take a straw poll on how many people think how many run-of-the-mill/ average cars are selling for large prices/ the asking.
....and here's a great investment opportunity we found spotted yesterday
http://www.couttsautomobiles.co.uk/showroom/2015-m...
http://www.couttsautomobiles.co.uk/showroom/2015-m...
northo said:
December and January were unseasonably busy for many dealers.
Sorry, my poor typing, I meant price wise. Many new cars onto the market are at similar, or lower price points than some of the slow sellers.And whilst dealers are seeing strong sales the ones I talk to have experienced a much more protracted sale rather than the walk in and slap the cash on the table type deals of the past few years.
northo said:
....and here's a great investment opportunity we found spotted yesterday
http://www.couttsautomobiles.co.uk/showroom/2015-m...
It probably will be based on the current level of interest in the Marque.http://www.couttsautomobiles.co.uk/showroom/2015-m...
Certainly the boggo 12c looks very cheap now.
a8hex said:
OK, ....... if I want to get somewhere on time or in comfort I'll take the XKR. If I want to go out for a drive I'll take the XK150.
..... You talked about asking AM to build you a new DB6V, they can't, or at least if they did you wouldn't be allowed to drive it on the road........ I can buy modern prints of old masters and they work perfectly well on my walls, whereas a modern copy of DB6 would be more difficult and it sounds like the DVLA are making it more difficult still.
I take your point about the XK150. I am just never going to get my head around paying £100k or more for that privilege. I have a model XK150 on my mantelpiece and unfortunately that is about as close as I am likely to get...... You talked about asking AM to build you a new DB6V, they can't, or at least if they did you wouldn't be allowed to drive it on the road........ I can buy modern prints of old masters and they work perfectly well on my walls, whereas a modern copy of DB6 would be more difficult and it sounds like the DVLA are making it more difficult still.
I didn't say anything about asking Aston to build a DB6 Volante, which I agree would be perverse. What I said was why not do the same as the man who bought the DB6 originally, i.e. go to Aston and buy a fantastic new car from them. When you consider that is going to cost maybe £150k, a total apple pie and ice cream experience, it seems to be small change compared with what people are paying for DB5's and 6's, and though its a while since I drove a 5, as I recall it wasn't THAT good, and to my mind it wasn't a grease smudge on driving the DBS. £150k is still big money for a car, but it's conceivable. £750k is to my mind a joke, and I am into cars.
If the speculators are now leaving the market to the enthusiasts, all I can say is that there must be some hellish rich enthusiasts about.
Edited by cardigankid on Tuesday 23 February 19:42
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