Harbingers of doom rejoice, classic car prices chat thread

[rovermorris999]

Slidingpillar said:

At the end of the day, you need to be alert to the prices and trends of your interests. Mine as you can probably tell is Morgans, particularly three wheelers. The quantity of five speeders (the new three wheeler) for sale in the UK has caused the prices of both the two and three speeders (the old ones) to markedly dip in the UK. But auction prices in the USA seem unaffected, with cars going for considerably more than they'd fetch in the UK.

Personally, I don't expect this imbalance to last, as the sort of person who buys a five speeder would not have considered a two or three speeder.

An interesting point about a new car affecting the values of an older one. The introduction of the MX5 seemed to dent the market for MGBs and Spitfires for a while.

[rovermorris999]

iSore said:

Play Station and masturbation I expect. You're right though - very few lads I know are interested in cars. When I was growing up and became really interested in the late seventies and eighties, there were scrapyards to be explored and cars were not the tool they are now. Buying and fixing a st car, learning to drive, doing ill advised mods, breaking it, fixing it with scrapyard bits again was a rite of passage.

Now it's about Mummy and daddy putting a deposit down for a new Corsa. I pity todays car driving youth - they missed all the good stuff. I see a young bird* who can't be older than 20 driving a seventies Allegro now and then. That Girl's parents had the right idea.

• keep it period!

Like you, many of my weekends were spent climbing over tottering piles of rusting cars, many of which would be part of a pension portfolio now. My first car was a Triumph Herald 1200 convertible which I made go so much better (not!) with 175 Firestones on Dunlop Steelies and a Cherry Bomb silencer held on with lots of exhaust bandage. £125 for the car and £35 for the insurance in 1974 in London for a 17 year old with a new licence. Happy days.

[mgtd]

mph said:

I can't find anything about it. Can you post a link ?

Of course:

http://www.vscc.co.uk/page/forum?cgID=1&cID=1&...

RIP Stanley, great character. A rogue (allegedly).

[Slidingpillar]

mgtd said:

Of course:

http://www.vscc.co.uk/page/forum?cgID=1&cID=1&...

RIP Stanley, great character. A rogue (allegedly).

But only readable if you are a member of the VSCC.

[jdw1234]

Hugh Jarse said:

Couple of comments on other threads about the 2001-6 R230 Mercedes, really lovely modern (neoclassic?) car and only £6-10,000. That's tempting money for the more casual punter and an anchoring force - why have a crusty wired classis when you can have a continent crusher with auto hardtop.

Because you will look silly when you have an ABC fault or a leaking seal ruins the electrics and then some stylish chap drives by in the R107 or R129 you should have bought ;-)

[Lowtimer]

£6K-£10k is too cheap for a good 107 these days but the 129 is indeed where the value currently lies in SL-ville.

[northo]

thegreenhell said:

With all due respect, your viewpoint is not exactly an unbiased one.

Speaking as an enthusiast of a certain age with some cash to spend, I'd say this is absolutely not the time to buy. Over the last two years I've seen the asking prices of all my realistic dream cars suddenly spiral out of my reach after several years of market stability. I can't see why any sensible, normal buyer would enter the market right now.

We'd like to think we add a bit of balance to the debate. https://grrc.goodwood.com/road/news/edward-legge-v...

[Hugh Jarse]

Another anchoring factor is those blighters on the continent, who dont seem as keen, must be too busy eating garlic, chasing mistresses and other shenanigans. 1965 VGC boggo Merc saloon £3000 http://auction.catawiki.co.uk/kavels/4331289-merce...

[DonkeyApple]

rovermorris999 said:

Indeed, I am talking about two different markets. For Mr. Average with a spare £20-30k the price of highly-leveraged Ferraris is pretty much irrelevant. He isn't going to borrow heavily to buy a classic and more fool him if he does. In the last big boom time, back in the 80's, I bought a Daimler SP250 for £3750. I sold it 18 months later for £10k (wish I'd kept it!). The market then crashed but SP250 values seemed to stay flat, that is they didn't lose much if anything in cash terms although they may have been a harder sell. Fast forward to 2006 and I bought a similar condition SP250 for £10250 now worth mid £20's. So if I'd held onto the original one I'd have 'lost' due to general inflation and the lost income I could have made on the £10k but have made it back again by now. The point is though that for me and many like me, that is irrelevant. The car is effectively a hobby that coincidentally is a store of value that could be cashed in if necessary. Money might be made or lost but it's not a life-changing amount of money, you at least get something back and you have the pleasure of a usable asset. Much more fun than a share certificate, though I have shares as well.
An analogy could perhaps be made with Russian and Middle-eastern money drying up and thus dampening the 'investment' property market in London. That will have little effect on the price of a semi in Nottingham. It would take a general economic depression to do that.
Having said all that, there are people spending too much on tarted-up tat at all price points, particularly models that aren't very desirable. Quality will always sell but the tat may well lose heavily. Fashions change too as different generations have the disposable cash. Look to the antique market for examples of that, brown furniture anyone?
It's a fascinating topic but in the end just buy what you like, buy the best and only use money that isn't an important amount for you. And importantly, don't expect to make money although you might if you are lucky.

Edited by rovermorris999 on Saturday 6th February 09:43

I agree that there are two markets but they are not separate or dislocated. The domestic market, or the market for conventional classics is catagorically impacted by the global market.

I agree that basic demand for standard classics, in stable market conditions where there is no leverage is driven by independent factors than the extreme end of the market. There is a very strong argument that the former is for self satisfaction through consumption and the latter self satisfaction through promotion etc.

The April clarity on non primary resi stamp duty and whether pensions still exist in any useable form I would think will have some impact on the conventional classic car investment market.

However, the conventional market is loaded with debt and leverage and that changes the dynamic completely and the sentiment that drives this stems from the sentiment in the premium market. It's the same old story in every market. People read and hear about how others are owning cars that have gone up millions, TV shows launch that talk only of values going up, specialist lenders start marketing debt packages to help people aquire what they don't have the actual cash for and people start feeling left out and jumping on the free money bandwagon. Like they always do with the boom/bust cycles of property, shares, commodities etc.

Frankly, hearing that investors are using debt to secure investments such as 944s does tell you that we really are in a bubble that has gone well passed the point of reason.

There will be classics that survive any bust better than others but that will only be because they weren't bid up in the first instance to be carrying such a premium. What doesn't go up, doesn't have far to come down.

On the other hand, if we look at some of the conventional classics which have no real shortage of stock and no deeply intrinsic value such as normal old 911s or Mercs etc these are the sorts of assets that will fall hardest in any correction.

So just like the analogy of the semi in Nottingham, all regional property assets will be impacted by a significant correction in resi values in London but how far they fall or stop rising will be defined by their closeness in correlation to the premium market. But property in the UK is now extremely difficult to use as an analogy because it isn't a pure market. It is rigged and the Govt has proven that they will underwrite it and regulate it to create and support artificial valuations.

With the car market, who regulates it and who would underpin it? When it corrects there will be nothing to stand in its way. And the market will correct, we all know this, so all we are really able to talk about is how likely this correction is to happen sooner or later.

[aeropilot]

iSore said:

In 1988, a 40 year old car was a split screen Minor, a Healey Hemorrhoid or some other hateful post war side valve dross. Minors and Jaguars were about the only exception. A Mark II RS2000 was a £1200 banger.

I guess you weren't in the market for a Mk2 RS2000 back in 1988...

1200 quid

You would have had to pay 2k for a below average condition one.....I was helping one of my cousins look for one in 87/88 and he paid 4k for his that I would say was only just 'above average'. V.nice examples were already above 5k by then.

[iSore]

aeropilot said:

I guess you weren't in the market for a Mk2 RS2000 back in 1988...

1200 quid

You would have had to pay 2k for a below average condition one.....I was helping one of my cousins look for one in 87/88 and he paid 4k for his that I would say was only just 'above average'. V.nice examples were already above 5k by then.

Prices must have slumped again by 1995 then..............






In 1988, I sold my very nice RS Mexico with a Ford Exchange 2 litre Pinto for £1300, and bought a 1983 RS1600I for £2800. I don't recall RS2000's being 4 or 5 grand.

Edited by iSore on Monday 8th February 18:35

[Willhire89]

Slidingpillar said:

mgtd said:

Of course:

http://www.vscc.co.uk/page/forum?cgID=1&cID=1&...

RIP Stanley, great character. A rogue (allegedly).

But only readable if you are a member of the VSCC.

Here's an obit : http://www.classicandsportscar.com/news/obituaries...

[vpr]

In 84 I got 4k for my 50.000 mile 79 RS2000 Custom (off the insurance) if that helps

[iSore]

vpr said:

In 84 I got 4k for my 50.000 mile 79 RS2000 Custom (off the insurance) if that helps

That's about right. The last of them were about 5700 quid new and nice ones held their value for quite a while.

[swisstoni]

iSore said:

vpr said:

In 84 I got 4k for my 50.000 mile 79 RS2000 Custom (off the insurance) if that helps

That's about right. The last of them were about 5700 quid new and nice ones held their value for quite a while.

Yes, they were never cheap cars comparatively speaking, and have had an enthusiastic following from day one.

[Hugh Jarse]

Some gloom this time as im generally positive but how many owners have:

• A garage - or more like two
• Handy with spanners
• Enough tools to tackle bigger stuff (or a budget to pay someone else)
• Time
• Inclination
• Free from crumbly backs

etc.
You can buy a lovely £5k modern aluminium jag like below, why bother with the more esoteric stuff?
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/j...

[Lowtimer]

Hugh Jarse said:

S
You can buy a lovely £5k modern aluminium jag like below, why bother with the more esoteric stuff?
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/j...

Because what I want from a classic car is completely different from what I want in smoker barge, and that's a smoker barge.

As I have arguably got both, what's the difference and why am I saying this?

That 3.0 X350 to me would be perfectly eligible to be left out in the rain and at the station and not washed and used for everyday transport, if it suited me for every transport (which in my case it doesn't, because it's just too aircraft-carrier sized and I cant fill it up with post-grad students and their clobber the way I can an estate Merc or BM). If it were mine it would get maintained regardless of cost and every so often would get a bit of a touch-up of the stonechips, but it would not feel pampered in any way.

It's not a car I would ever go out to look at because I think it's beautiful, or special. It's not a car with any sense of history to it, it forms no connection to any part of my past, nor the past of anyone I know. It's just another second hand car, albeit a smooth and pleasant one. My E39 is in the same category. It's transport, and while one can grow to have a strong relationship with transport, that's nothing like the emotional connection you have with something that connects you to a past you are fond of. Maybe in 20 more years someone might feel the same way about it as they do now about a Series 1 XJ6 (mind you, I doubt they ever will). It's not a car that reminds you of being a kid, of what maybe your dad or one of his richer friends used to drive. It's not a car that makes you think of the rallies or races or TV programmes or movies of your formative years. It's not a car than anyone will double-take at if you park it at the supermarket (unless you annoy them by overlapping two or three spaces, which is what the wretched things take up).

But something like BV72's Series 1 Daimler Sov, that's a little piece of history, and even though it's presently ropey and tatty, just the cigar lighter alone has more charisma and desirability as a historical artifact than all of the X350 possibly can, at least for another 20 years, probably 30.

And the X350 or S220 S-class or E39 5-series are cars made in vast numbers, commonly available and seen on every high street, in every housing estate. But when you see a Frogeye, a P5, a Neuer Klasse BMW, a fintail Merc or a Series 1 XJ, even a Series 3 these days, it makes you smile, and remember reading the Observer's Book of Cars that you got in 1969.

My two older cars are not necessarily in the "proper classics" camp yet, being in one case a 1990 example of basically a mid-'70s design, and in the other case a 1993 example of a mid/late '80s design, but they do take me back to earlier version of myself, and I know from other people's reactions to them that they do the same for other people. And they get properly pampered, they get the same mechanical treatment as the BMW, but on top of that they get cleaned and dried and vacuumed out and waxes and kept in dehumidified storage, and they get every penny spent and every journey recorded, and they don't get left at the station or parked under the trees to be covered in crow droppings because I care about them as artifacts, not just as machines for doing a job.

While I will do small jobs on any of the cars they all get maintained properly by well equipped specialists and that does cost money. But once you're past the restoration phase it's only really the same money you'd have to put into an X350 that's well past its first flush of youth to keep it working perfectly, and depreciation is a non-issue, so who cares?

Edited by Lowtimer on Monday 15th February 18:45

[vpr]

Hugh Jarse said:

Some gloom this time as im generally positive but how many owners have:

• A garage - or more like two
• Handy with spanners
• Enough tools to tackle bigger stuff (or a budget to pay someone else)
• Time
• Inclination
• Free from crumbly backs

etc.
You can buy a lovely £5k modern aluminium jag like below, why bother with the more esoteric stuff?
http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/j...

Totally missing the point of Classic cars

[iSore]

The X350 Jag is a nice thing but you'll be battling alloy corrosion and electrical issues on a rapidly depreciating banger that will be valued by the ton on the weighbridge soon enough. 3 to 5 grand can actually buy a really nice old car, if you avoid the obvious stuff and dealers. I'm talking about cars that just haven't shot up in value and probably never will but are still worth owning.

- A very nice 3.4 XJ6 Series III

- A Triumph 2000 Mark 1

- BMW 2500, still struggling to pull proper money

- Rover 3500 SD1. Probably not a Vitesse!

[Hugh Jarse]

Certainly an interesting time for personal motoring.
In twenty years most cars will be electric and self driving, following electronic snail trails.
Then the non-ABS, manual steering cars will be cherished, even Vauxhall Vivas.