TDF 15

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Rumours are that its down to a blood transfusion from a previous time rather than him snorting a line during the tour...

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Impressive from Sky, would have won if not for Roche dragging them down..!

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TJVD I would say is his main threat at the minute. He was the only person able to live with Froome in the Dauphine...ish. I know not everyone was riding it but I think he is as big a threat as Contador and Quintana.

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Part of me thinks he may let one of the others ride themselves into the ground on the first of the hard stages like he did with Contador in the Vuelta that time, and then crush them on stage 3, perhaps.

The thing is, the amount of time he has taken already with the really limited first week stages leads me to think it could be a bit of a domination on the hills. I really think we could be seeing a fight with Quintana and TJ rather than Bertie and Nibali, but its anyone's guess.

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Brad is 'not' an attacking rider, Froome is, he will want to demolish his opposition if he can.

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S10GTA said:

Future Grand Tour winner imho

Not in a million years.

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S10GTA said:

I'll hold you to that.

I could just about see it with Geraint Thomas, who is another fairly strong all rounder (though no sprint) as he has the right body shape, Sagan is a tank full of fast twitch, you don't just go from that kind of rider to be a hill climber able to live with people like Quintana and Contador, Froome etc.

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pablo said:

I dont think any would have predicted Wiggo being a TdF winner whilst he was winning Gold in Beijing and Sagan is arguably coming from a better place having not been track-centric for so long so it remains possible. I guess its like Murray and tennis, Murray is without doubt one of the best, it just so happens that there are three or four other guys out there who are better. To win Wimbledon he has to beat at least one from Federer, Djokvic and Nadal and thats the problem with Sagan.

To win a grand tour Sagan will always be against TvG, Quintana, Pinot etc and as others have said, the time he loses in the big mountains will be greater tha nany time he can recoup opn the rolling stages. He could get lucky and find a race with fewer mountain finishes than previous races, like Wiggo did in 2012, or he could get lucky with some guys out through injury or favouring the giro/vuelta, or he could just get better at climbing

Wiggins another classic slow-twitcher with a small body frame, I can't think of any sprinter types who are built like sagan that have managed to do it thinking off top of my head?

What you're forgetting is that Wiggins took time on the time trials, Wiggins is one of the best time trialists there has 'ever' been, Sagan is not, and would not be able to take the time out of people that Brad did.

The only way he's going to get better at climbing is losing a lot of weight, probably a stone, I don't think his body type will allow it though, and even then it's questionable whether he has the engine, I personally doubt his power output over an hour is much different to someone like Froome, certainly to my mind he doesn't have the engine of someone like Cancellara who sworded him a couple of times in classics.

Anyway, its going to be hard to judge as he won't be bothered about getting up the mountains in any really quick time, but if it all goes mad tomorrow then one of the top GC guys could put minutes into another of the top GC boys, let alone someone like Sagan...

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S10GTA said:

He might not be perfect at the TT, but no worse than Quintana. How much time has he grabbed in time bonuses?

As for going up hill, Sagan is only 75kg. If he dropped a few KG he could keep up I think.

I should hope he isn't any worse than a 58kg pure climber in a TT

I don't think he has the engine to be honest unless he got very light - 75kg is a lot for a pro cyclist unless they're big, he is 6ft, not that big.

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I don't think you are quite appreciating the difficulty of losing 10kg when you're already riding 25 hours a week as a pro cyclist and your body has settled at 75...he ain't gunna be taking bonuses with 10kg less, that is for sure.

Quintana could probably take 10 minutes or more out of Sagan in the next 3 days even if Sagan was trying, that is why he is a GC contender...

Anyway, we'll see, my money would be on him not even attempting it (win a GT that is)

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I think he meant Wiggins lose the weight vs lose time.

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No doubt in my mind Froome could have probably won that Tour but was made to work for Brad.

He only slowed down as he was shouted at over radio..

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If they are not clean then they are really going a bad way about keeping it under wraps with Porte coming in 2nd.

There again, I didn't doubt he was better than the rest, just like 2013 - different level.

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He's a bit of a dick, but yes I think a break of sorts will try hard for today.

That said, I would expect 'something' from Contador at some point given how fresh he must be after yesterdays showing...

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VEA said:

Didn't realise we had a second thread running. Loving the tour so far this year, great to watch.

I'm banned from the other one for much less slander than people have even put in this thread re doping etc - typical PH moderating!

Plus its good to get opinion of people who actually ride bikes

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I've watched a bit, I generally prefer ES though.

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LOL!!

I hope I do too but no chance

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I would say with some confidence that isn't correct.

Sagan looks big, if anything, too big, I reckon there is probably more like 5kg between them. And Thomas likely has a bigger engine too.

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mcelliott said:

It was reference to the earlier comments, slightly tounge and cheek.

Whoosh parrot for me.

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He was throwing it about for sure, I do wonder though if he was a bit more fluid he could have actually been quicker.

That was all the evidence I needed though that he doesn't have the engine that Cancellara etc do, classics wins for him won't be as plentiful as many think. Cancellara would have had a fair chance of closing that gap imo.